The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito will likely lose its majority in the July 20 Upper House election, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed.

The LDP is expected to win about 34 seats and Komeito about nine, including proportional representation seats, according to the survey.

Those seats, combined with the parties’ 75 seats not up for re-election, would give the coalition 118, short of the minimum 125 needed to maintain its majority in the 248-seat Diet chamber.

The coalition lost its majority in the Lower House in the election held in October last year.

The nationwide survey, conducted on July 13-14 through telephone and the internet, factored in Asahi Shimbun reporting to estimate the number of seats each political party is likely to win.

With less than a week to go before voting day, LDP candidates were leading in only four of the 32 electoral districts where one seat is being contested.

The figure is down from 12 constituencies in the previous Asahi Shimbun survey conducted in the early stages of the campaign.

The LDP also continues to struggle to mobilize support in the proportional representation portion, where voters cast ballots for a candidate or political party.

A Komeito candidate is maintaining an advantage in the Tokyo constituency, where seven seats are being contested, but the party’s contenders are all in close battles to secure a seat in other districts, the survey showed.

While many candidates from the coalition parties have lost momentum since the early stages of the campaign, opponents from Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People have gained ground, according to the survey.

Sanseito, which has just one seat up for re-election, will likely capture about seven seats in electoral districts and about eight proportional representation seats.

The latter could be the largest number among opposition parties, even surpassing the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the DPP.

According to the survey, a Sanseito candidate was leading in the Tokyo constituency, overtaking an LDP candidate who was the front-runner in the early stages of the campaign.

The DPP will likely seize about 17 seats in total, a sharp gain from only four seats up for re-election. The party’s goal is winning at least 16 seats.

According to the survey, the CDP will likely garner about 27 seats, up from 22 seats up for re-election. The number includes seven proportional representation seats.

Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) will likely settle for about six seats, compared with five seats up for re-election.

The Japanese Communist Party will likely win about four seats, while Reiwa Shinsengumi is expected to capture about three seats.

Both the Social Democratic Party and the Conservative Party of Japan could secure a proportional representation seat.

Team Mirai, Saisei no Michi (The Path to Rebirth) and the NHK Party, which is critical of public broadcaster Japan Broadcasting Corp., may each win a seat.

The situation could change because 40 percent of respondents did not disclose how they would vote in electoral districts as well as in the proportional representation portion.

Voter turnout is expected to reach at least 55 percent for the first time since the Upper House election in 2010, according to The Asahi Shimbun’s telephone survey.

Seventy-two percent of respondents said they will definitely vote in the election, while 18 percent said they want to vote and 8 percent said they will not.

The estimated turnout was derived from these results, although the actual figure tends to be lower than the percentage of those who said they will definitely vote.

Voter turnout was 52.05 percent in the previous Upper House election in 2022 and 48.80 percent in 2019, the second lowest in postwar years.

In the 2010 election, when turnout was 57.92 percent, the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan, which was in power, suffered a crushing defeat.

The telephone survey was conducted through calls to randomly generated numbers. There were 6,108 valid responses from voters contacted by landline, or 56 percent of the total, and 6,080 valid responses from those contacted by cellphones, or 40 percent.

The Asahi Shimbun also commissioned four internet research companies to conduct an online survey, which yielded 80,481 valid responses nationwide.