Photo/Illutration The leaders of 10 political parties vying for 125 seats in the Upper House. The election will be held on July 20. (The Asahi Shimbun)

With the ruling coalition at risk of losing its Upper House majority, the opposition Democratic Party for the People could find itself a popular target of suitors in post-election power moves.

The coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and junior partner Komeito currently holds 220 seats in the Lower House, short of the 233 needed for a majority.

As a result, the Upper House election on July 20 could be seen as a vote for leadership of Japan.

A joint survey conducted by The Asahi Shimbun and professor Masaki Taniguchi’s laboratory at the University of Tokyo asked candidates for their views on forming specific alliances with other parties after the election.

They were asked to pick from three options for each scenario: A coalition should be formed regardless of the election result; a coalition is possible depending on the election result; and a coalition is unthinkable regardless of the election result.

One scenario is the formation of a “grand coalition” between the ruling LDP and the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan.

However, this partnership appears highly unlikely, considering the negative views expressed by candidates of both parties.

Eighty-four percent of LDP candidates said a grand coalition with the CDP is “unthinkable,” while 95 percent of CDP candidates said the same thing about partnering with the LDP.

Sixteen percent of LDP candidates and 5 percent of CDP candidates said such a grand coalition is “possible.”

Both the LDP and CDP appear to be eyeing the 27 Lower House seats occupied by the DPP and the 38 seats of Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party).

If either the DPP or Nippon Ishin join the ruling coalition, it would have a majority in the more powerful Diet chamber.

Sixty-three percent of LDP candidates consider a coalition with the DPP “possible” after the Upper House election.

Among CDP candidates, 18 percent said they “should form a coalition” with the DPP, and 72 percent said a coalition with the DPP is “possible.”

As for DPP candidates, only 3 percent said they “should form a coalition” with the LDP, but 66 percent said such an alliance is “possible.”

Sixty-six percent of DPP candidates also said a coalition with the CDP is “possible.”

Among LDP candidates, 53 percent consider a post-election coalition with Nippon Ishin “possible.”

However, most Nippon Ishin candidates consider partnerships with any other party “unthinkable.”

Most candidates endorsed by Sanseito, a party gaining momentum, also responded that a coalition with any party is “unthinkable.”

However, 22 percent of them said a coalition with the LDP is “possible,” and 13 percent said the same for the CDP.

An Asahi Shimbun survey conducted in early July showed the ruling coalition is in danger of losing its Upper House majority, with both the LDP and Komeito likely to lose seats on July 20.

The Asahi-Taniguchi survey was conducted from the end of May.

Of the 522 candidates for the Upper House election, responses from 490, or 93.9 percent, were received by the morning of July 7.

(This article was written by Yuta Ogi and Daiki Koga.)

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