Campaigning officially started on July 3 for an Upper House election that could further upend the power structure in Japanese politics.

A total of 125 seats are up for grabs in the July 20 election. These include half of the seats in the Diet chamber and one for the Tokyo electoral district that has become vacant.

As of 11:20 a.m. on July 3, 517 people had registered their candidacies: 345 for prefectural districts and 172 for proportional representation seats, according to a tally by The Asahi Shimbun.

By political party: 79 are from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party; 51 from the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan; 24 from junior coalition partner Komeito; 28 from Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party); 47 from the Japanese Communist Party; 41 from the Democratic Party for the People; 24 from Reiwa Shinsengumi; 55 from Sanseito; 11 from the Social Democratic Party; nine from the Conservative Party of Japan; 114 from other groups; and 34 not affiliated with any party.

The election will feature 152 female candidates, or 29 percent of the total.

BATTLE OVER PRICES

The election will serve as a report card on the performance of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his administration, which was inaugurated in October 2024.

Key issues will be the rising cost of living, including high prices for rice, and tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Voters gave Ishiba, who is LDP president, a failing grade in October, when the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Lower House.

The LDP was forced to compromise on certain policies with opposition lawmakers to ensure bills, including the fiscal 2025 budget, were passed in the Lower House.

A similar loss in the Upper House could prove devastating to Ishiba’s administration.

Ishiba has set a modest goal of having the LDP-Komeito coalition retaining its Upper House majority after the votes are counted.

The coalition held 141 Upper House seats before the campaign started, and 66 are being contested.

The two parties can afford to lose 16 of those seats. Securing 50 seats would give them a majority of 125 in the Upper House.

But there is also criticism within the ruling coalition that the 50-seat target is too low.

Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has not set an election target for his party.

Instead, he said he wants the opposition parties to limit the ruling coalition’s victories to a maximum of 62 seats, or less than half of the seats up for grabs.

Major opposition parties are expected to run a unified candidate in more than 10 constiuencies with only one seat available.

COALITION LEADERS SPEAK IN KOBE

Ishiba delivered his first campaign speech at a rally held in central Kobe, focusing on measures to help residents combat inflation.

“We will definitely achieve wage increases that exceed price increases,” he said.

Ishiba also criticized the opposition parties’ promises to cut the consumption tax rate to make goods, particularly food, more affordable.

“The consumption tax is a valuable source of revenue for medical care, pensions, nursing care and child care, and we cannot allow anything that can hurt these resources.”

Regarding his administration’s tariff negotiations with the United States, Ishiba said, “We will not make easy compromises in order to protect our national interests, such as automobiles and shipbuilding.”

He said the LDP “will face the tariff negotiations with all its might.”

Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito also chose Kobe for his first campaign speech.

At a rally held in Kobe’s Nishi Ward, Saito emphasized his party’s achievements, such as initiating the abolition of political activity expenses and persuading Ishiba to freeze a review on the high-cost medical treatment fee system.

Komeito has positioned the Upper House election as a poll to overcome high prices.

“Tax cuts and benefits will be provided for the portion of wage and pension increases that do not keep pace with rising prices,” Saito said.

NODA WITH RICE FIELD IN BACKGROUND

Noda chose Kunitomi town in Miyazaki Prefecture, a major rice producing region, as the site for his first campaign speech.

Standing in front of a rice field, Noda criticized Taku Eto, an LDP Lower House member elected from the prefecture who resigned as agriculture minister after boasting about the size of his personal rice supply.

“(Eto) released stockpiled rice through bidding, but it was ineffective, and in fact, rice became more expensive,” Noda said.

However, the CDP leader acknowledged that Eto’s successor, Shinjiro Koizumi, has had success by releasing stockpiled rice through voluntary contracts.

But Noda added: “When the stockpiled rice becomes insufficient, he is going to rely on imported rice. … It is the farmers who are in trouble. If the situation becomes such that farmers are forced to leave farming, Japan’s food security cannot be ensured.”

Noda also criticized the prime minister.

“Not only rice, but everything is expensive,” he said. “However, nothing is being done. The Ishiba administration is inept, isn’t it?”

He said the CDP’s pledge to temporarily slash the consumption tax rate to zero percent on food would be an effective measure against high prices.

YOSHIMURA IN FAMILIAR TERRITORY

Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, leader of Nippon Ishin, spoke at a rally in central Osaka’s Minami district.

“Lowering social insurance premiums is absolutely necessary in a society with a shrinking and aging population,” he said.

“The burden is too great, and if nothing is done, our children and grandchildren will bear an even greater burden,” he continued. “We must make every effort to reduce social insurance premiums that are deducted from wages.”

Nippon Ishin aims to win at least six seats, more than the number of its seats up for re-election, hoping to create “a situation where the ruling coalition would fall short of a majority and the few opposition parties would be heard.”

TAMURA SPEAKS IN IKEBUKURO

Tomoko Tamura, leader of the Japanese Communist Party, made her first campaign speech in front of JR Ikebukuro Station in Tokyo.

“The continuation of LDP politics is ruining our lives,” she said. “The LDP has been ineffective in dealing with soaring prices. It has been following the lead of the U.S. in massively expanding the military. And it is completely unrepentant about its funding scandal.”

She said the JCP “will drive the LDP into a minority in the Upper House, too, and put an end to LDP politics. We will fight on with this determination.”

TAMAKI HITS SHINBASHI STATION

The DPP, which greatly expanded its power in last fall’s Lower House election, aims to win 16 seats in the Upper House election.

That would give the party 21 total seats and enable it to submit bills to the chamber on its own.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki chose a site in front of JR Shinbashi Station in Tokyo for his first campaign speech.

Criticizing the ruling coalition’s plan to provide cash handouts to the public, Tamaki said the DPP would rather “create a society where working-age people who continue to support this country … can once again believe that their dreams will come true if they work hard.”

YAMAMOTO APPEALS IN SHINJUKU

Taro Yamamoto, leader of Reiwa Shinsengumi, made his first campaign speech in front of JR Shinjuku Station in Tokyo.

Yamamoto called for the creation of a society in which “just being alive is worth living.”

He argued that the purchasing power of individuals will be increased by cutting taxes, reducing or exempting social insurance premiums and raising pensions.

“We will encourage people to buy what they need now and what they have given up on. Your consumption will turn into someone else’s income. We will thoroughly raise the level of this cycle, which is a matter of course,” he said.

KAMIYA SAYS ‘JAPANESE FIRST’ IN GINZA

Sohei Kamiya, leader of the rising Sanseito party, made his first campaign speech at a rally in Tokyo’s Ginza and repeated the party’s catchphrase, “Japanese first.”

“In 30 years of no economic growth, the middle class has disappeared and the poor have increased. On the other hand, the number of wealthy individuals is increasing,” he said.

He continued: “Japan was prosperous and vibrant when it was called ‘all 100-million-people middle class,’ but that is no longer the case. The hopes and dreams of the people have disappeared from their hearts. We want to change such a Japan.”

FUKUSHIMA IN SHINJUKU

Mizuho Fukushima, leader of the Social Democratic Party, delivered her first campaign speech in front of JR Shinjuku Station.

“This is an election to put an end to LDP politics,” she said.

As part of the SDP’s “urgent livelihood support measures,” Fukushima pledged to “immediately reduce the consumption tax rate to zero percent on foodstuffs, realize a uniform nationwide minimum hourly wage of 1,500 yen ($10.50), and cut social insurance premiums in half.”

HYAKUTA IN SHINBASHI

Author Naoki Hyakuta, leader of the Conservative Party of Japan, chose a site in front of JR Shinbashi Station in Tokyo for his first campaign speech.

“Japan is really on the verge of collapse,” he said. “With the current LDP-Komeito government in power, I have a bleak feeling about what kind of country Japan will be in 10 years’ time. If we stand up now, there is room for Japan to revive.”

He also said of the current government: “They are bringing in more and more foreigners who work for about 70 percent of the salary of the Japanese. There is no way Japanese people’s salaries will go up.

“Yet, the government claims that Japan’s labor force is decreasing due to the declining birthrate. We must not be deceived.”