The Pokemon trading card market is now being likened to a stock exchange, filled with the risks and benefits of wild price fluctuations.

The first step in becoming a potential player in the card market is simple and inexpensive.

A new pack of five Pokemon cards typically costs 180 yen ($1.16), meaning each card is initially worth only dozens of yen.

But some cards can be resold for more than 10 million yen. And, as recent events have shown, holders of such super pricey cards can see their values plummet to 1 million yen within months.

In a corner of Tokyo’s Akihabara district, a collector card store was lined with used Pokemon cards. One carried a price tag of 2.7 million yen. Another one cost 7.5 million yen.

Shops in this “holy land” of trading cards carefully examine cards brought in by sellers and determine the prices based on surface condition and popularity of the characters shown.
Once purchased, the cards are resold at prices that include the store’s profit margin.

Rare cards can fetch prices many times their original value in the secondhand market. Collectors also invest huge sums in out-of-print cards and those featuring popular female characters.

With counterfeits becoming a growing problem in the industry, Pokemon cards whose authenticity and preservation state are confirmed by a third-party organization are priced twice to 10 times higher than non-verified ones.

Thefts of expensive cards from toy stores have also been a problem, particularly in 2023, when prices skyrocketed and some cards were sold for hundreds of millions of yen.

But in 2024, the prices plunged to 20 to 30 percent of the previous year’s levels in the secondhand market, according to shop operators in Tokyo.

One Pokemon card that was bought for 12 million yen in early summer in 2023 drew considerable attention. But its price later dropped to around 1 million yen.

The rapid price decline in the trading card market was likened to the collapse in the early 1990s of the asset-inflated bubble economy.

However, Hareruya 2, a trading card outlet in Akihabara, said prices of used Pokemon cards have recently rebounded thanks in part to the release of new cards in December 2024.

One Pokemon character that is particularly popular overseas was included in the latest series, attracting foreign buyers to card stores in Japan.

MARKET FORCES

A card shop manager in Tokyo said the cards’ market values are largely determined by prices displayed at leading chains’ outlets in Akihabara and elsewhere.

Increased rates of buying by well-funded shops to secure inventory can lead to significant price hikes.

A card shop manager in Tokyo’s Nakano Ward said standard prices can promptly change, often within two weeks to a month, depending on supply and demand.

And speculation, even if unfounded, can affect card prices. If word spreads in the market that certain cards’ value will increase, shops will raise their prices accordingly.

Even without real demand, market prices can be set that way.

“Uncertain periodic elements determine which cards will rise in value next,” said the store manager.

The reason behind the sharp decline in prices of Pokemon cards in 2024 remains unclear.

It is widely believed that scalpers shifted their attention to other products. Increased circulation of new cards and the rise of sophisticated counterfeits are also cited as contributing factors.

Kazuo Maki, an associate professor of theoretical economics at Kyoto Tachibana University’s faculty of economics who is knowledgeable about pop culture, emphasized that the fluctuations in Pokemon card prices mirrored the collapse of an economic bubble.

“The bubble can burst in an instant owing to a minor cause,” Maki said. “A sense of strangeness or a small change can cause prices to plummet, leading to the collapse of the bubble.”

Around the time of the 1929 Great Depression, Joseph Kennedy, a Wall Street investor and father of future U.S. President John F. Kennedy, is said to have foreseen the economic collapse the moment he heard a shoeshine boy discuss stocks.

One possible sign that Pokemon card prices would decline may have been increased trading volume in the market.

Resellers detected the sign first and quickly unloaded their stock, thereby pushing down prices abruptly.

“Card prices had increased dramatically beyond their original value, much like shares and real estate during a bubble economy,” Maki stressed.

He pointed out that a drastic price increase in trading cards is somewhat bizarre given that they are just “toys.” Stocks and real assets, in contrast, are widely regarded as having well-established value similar to cash.

He surmised that the rapidly growing demand for Pokemon cards made it difficult for supply to keep pace. Scalpers who made bulk purchases for resale also pushed up card values.

Additionally, Maki noted that The Pokemon Company has limited releases of new card packages.

“Distributing too many cards to the market can make the game less interesting for players,” Maki said.

He said prices on the market now may represent “appropriate levels,” rather than unfairly low rates. And newly released card packs are currently much easier to buy.

“I will closely watch how many fans stay in the market purely to enjoy the game,” Maki said. “The future of the card game business will be tested in a real sense from now.”