Nick Giffen

Has seen an increased snap share every week, corresponding perfectly with the steelers' share of snaps while leading As 2.5-point underdogs, the script should be relatively neutral, and I'd expect the steelers to be leading more than the 23.9% of snaps they've played this year, and certainly more than the 10.9% of snaps they led in Weeks 1 and 2 combined Warren has a 72% to 28% ratio of zone runs to man/gap concept runs since Arthur Smith became OC in 2024 MIN has struggled vs zone runs, allowing 0.58 more yards per carry vs zone runs in 2023, 1.43 more in 2024, and so far 2.49 yards more, at 4.75 ypc allowed vs zone concept runs Warren himself has performed better with zone runs at 4.13 ypc in zone runs to 3.35 ypc in man/gap runs since the start of last year The Steelers offensive line should also get a boost this week by facing Minnesota who has allowed opponents to put up 1.89 yards per carry before contact against them compared to PIT's other three opponents 1.49 for SEA 1.25 for NYJ 0.39 for NE Overall projecting warren for 15.5 carries at 4.0 ypc for 62 yards, with a median around 59.5 yards

TreVeyon Henderson over 14.5 rec yds (-125 at BetMGM, -120 at Hard Rock) Could be in line for an increase in snaps after both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson had fumbles last week Henderson has the highest targets per route run (TPRR) on the Patriots when Drake Maye has a clean pocket, and faces a CAR defense that's by far last in pressure rate this year Henderson also has the second-highest TPRR on the Patriots against Cover 3, of which CAR plays 2nd most in the NFL In 2 games against other Cover 3-heavy teams (Wk 1 vs LV and Wk 3 vs PIT), Henderson has 9 catches on 9 targets for 43 yards, an average of 4.5 and 21.5 yds per game Yes, NE is more likely to be in a run-heavy script here, but even accounting for that, the low pressure and high Cover 3 should help his target share on those pass attempts CAR last year allowed 8.2 yards per catch to RBs, and this year 6.9, which is bottom half, so he should get there on 3 catches, and could even get there on 2.5 Projecting a median closer to 19.5 rec yds ... each yard is worth around 2.75%, so over 14.5 -120 at HR or -125 at MGM is better than over 15.5 -116 at DK or over 16.5 -114 at FD, but all three are still value by my numbers.

Devonta Smith under 4.5 receptions (-110 BetMGM) Since the start of last year, when AJ Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert were all healthy, Smith has averaged 4.44 rec in 9 games, and stayed under 4.5 in 7 of 9, so already before applying any adjustments we're working from a good spot Two major factors play a role here: 1. A tough matchup when he lines up in the slot (expected 60%+) against rookie 3rd round CB Jacob Parrish, who's allowed just 7 rec on 8 targets through 3 games on 94 coverage routes faced 2. The pressure TB is expected to bring on defense In that 9-game sample with the healthy receiving trio, Devonta Smith has been targeted 7 times on 105 routes when Jalen Hurts faces pressure The aDOT of the targets is farther downfield at 11.2 yards, resulting in just 4 receptions on those 7 targets. TB is currently No. 2 in the NFL in pressure rate over expected (PrROE), and faces an eagles o-line that's allowed the second-highest PrROE according to Fantasy Points data, so Hurts could be in for a ton of scrambling/sacks and more long throws, making Smith's expected targets per route and catch rate drop I'm projecting closer to 4.1 receptions with a 61% chance of staying under 4.5 I wouldn't touch his yardage under, because it's more likely if he does catch passes, they are of the longer variety since Hurts should be under a lot of pressure

Woody Marks over 24.5 Rush Yds (-114 at FD) Has just 3.7 yards per carry so far, but this is the spot where he's most likely to up that significantly in a single game Through 3 games, Marks has faced three defenses that rank 11th, 1st, and 17th against man/gap scheme runs, which HOU prefers to run with both Chubb and Marks by a wide margin However, TEN ranks 29th, allowing 6.23 ypc on 39 attempts Additionally, HOU rush attempts to the right guard gap have gained 7.4 YPC on 7 rushes (highest gap volume and YPC), while TEN has allowed 9.4 YPC to that gap on 8 carries (2nd highest gap volume faced and 2nd highest YPC allowed) TEN has also allowed 2.67 yards before contact, 3rd worst and worse than all 3 teams Marks has faced so far Should be able to get enough volume regardless of game script Would get more carries in a lead/blowout But in a trailing situation he's been in on a higher percentage of passing snaps to total snaps than Chubb, so could see an extra draw/handoff or two that way HOU has just 14 snaps with the lead this year vs. 104 trailing, but as 7.5-point favorites we'd expect a much heavier run script for HOU Conservatively projecting 7.5 carries at 4.25 yards per carry, with a 58% chance to go over 24.5 Fine with over 25.5 -111 at DK, over 26.5 -105 at ESPN

Josh Allen under 6.5 rush att MGM/365 NO 5th worst pressure rate vs. expected so far in 2025 and 5th worst raw pressure rate Josh Allen scramble rate has decreased by more than 10% with a clean pocket than facing pressure since the start of last year The Saints also play zone at a top-six rate in the NFL, including Cover 3 at the third-highest rate which is the hardest to scramble against with an extra man in the box and zone coverage with the DBs facing the QB As huge faves, likely won’t be asked to do much designed w/legs Might get a couple kneel downs, but with a strong chance of a blowout, it would be Trubisky taking the knees in that scenario. Since start of last year: Trubisky has taken all the 2H kneels in double-digit BUF wins Allen has taken all the 2H knees in single-digit BUF wins Trubisky with 18 2H kneels across 8 games, Allen with 12 2H kneels across 6 games

Brian Thomas Jr. over 7.5 1st Quarter receiving yards (-117 at DK) JAX likely to start with the ball JAX has won the coin toss 3 times this year, and in two of those game they chose to receive the kickoff SF has won the coin toss 3 times this year and chose to defer all three which is standard for Kyle Shanahan who hasn't chosen to receive the ball as far back as my coin toss data goes Has cleared this in 2 of 3 games this year, including in the the game JAX got the ball second, catching one of two targets for 9 yards. Now faces a SF defense that has allowed a higher catch percentage, and catch percentage over expectation (CPOE) than the other three teams the Jaguars have faced this year. We should also expect BTJ's catch rate to improve from the paltry 28% he's had so far, closer to the mid 60% rate he had last year while having a similar aDOT so far this year to his rookie season. The Jaguars have also reportedly made it a point to get BTJ plenty of looks in practice this week to build back that confidence after some ugly drops, which tends not to be a sticky statistic. His receiving yard total is around 57.5 to 58.5 yards across the market, so 7.5 yards represents just 12.9% of that for 25% of game time, of which the Jaguars should have even more than 25% of their total possession by likely starting with the ball. 24% of BTJ's targets have come in the first quarter so far this year, which would equate to around 14 yards if that was also the percentage of yards he accumulated. Only DK has this prop right now, but when other books start to post it, I'd play it up to 9.5 at -110 or 10.5 at even money or better