Jaguars vs. Raiders Odds & Betting Predictions - November 2, 2025

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2.05% ev play to -104

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After being extremely pass heavy through the first two games, OC Chip Kelly made a noticeable shift toward the run, and since then, the Raiders have the 2nd-lowest PROE in the league. It’s clear they’re trying to mask just how bad Geno Smith has been and instead lean on 1st-round rookie RB Ashton Jeanty. I expect that approach to continue after the BYE, especially with Vegas only 3-point underdogs at home, a rare setup where they could actually play with a lead. Geno’s thrown 10 interceptions this season but has been a bit unlucky as I have him at 7.7 expected INTs based on his turnover worthy throw rate. Still bad, but not as disastrous as it looks on paper. That should help keep the Raiders in a balanced, run-heavy script rather than the panic-throw mode we’ve seen if he can avoid throwing a pick here. On the flip side, if he tosses another 1–2 picks, there’s a real chance Kenny Pickett replaces him. Coming off a BYE, that possibility adds sneaky downside to Geno’s passing volume similar to the in-game benchings we cashed in on the last two weeks with Justin Fields and Spencer Rattler. It’s worth noting Geno has one of the lowest throwaway rates in the league (just 2%), which means fewer “wasted” pass attempts that are always brutal when you have an under in this market. I’m projecting him closer to 30 pass attempts, with roughly a 60% chance to stay under 31.5.. and that’s without even baking in any extra value for the potential benching scenario.

I toyed with a Jaguars spread pick, but at -3.5 above the key number for a pretty average team on the road, it's a tough sell. Jacksonville is coming off its bye week, and that should be big for Liam Coen and this very green Jags staff, but the loss of Travis Hunter is a big late setback to the offense, and the Raiders are coming off their bye as well. Did Las Vegas find any answers offensively during the time off? The Raiders' offense has been brutal —30th by DVOA —but you don't just magically find blocking, receivers, or a run game with a week to go. The surprising strength of both teams has actually been their defenses, with both units at the fringe of the top 10 in many metrics. That leads us to Under 45.5 (Fanatics), and this is a terrific trends spot. The Raiders are 5-2 to the under this season, and both teams are 5-2 to the first-half under, so we should start slow. We don't get many games with both teams off a bye week, but the under is 29-15-1 in those games over the past two decades (66%). Teams like the Raiders, coming off a bye after getting shut out, see games that are 8-1 to the under since 2009, per Evan Abrams. The one bright spot for the Raiders is the healthy return of sophomore TE Brock Bowers. Bowers caught five passes for 103 yards the first three quarters of the season before getting hurt, and he slogged through a few injury-plagued games since before sitting a few weeks out. He looks fully healthy and back now and should pick up where he left off. One of Bowers' best games last season came against these Jaguars, who rank in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends both last season and this one. Bowers had 11 catches for 99 yards against Jacksonville last fall. We're getting artificially suppressed lines on Bowers with the uncertainty around his return from injury, but I expect a full go after the time off and the additional bye week. That makes over 45.5 yards (Fanatics) an easy decision, since Bowers has topped that in 14 of 21 career games (67%). He averages 68 YPG for his career, so you see the line suppression there. Even this season, Bowers had at least 38 yards in all four appearances, despite playing hurt in three of them. Bowers has topped 90 yards in a third of his career games, including the one against Jacksonville last season, so we're obligated to play 90+ yards at +600 (bet365) too. It's also worth playing some alternate reception lines. Bowers has 8+ catches in a third of his career games, but that's available at +475, and he hit 10+ receptions last time against Jacksonville, although that's +1500 (both at bet365). If Bowers is truly healthy and all the way back, especially with the complete dearth of WR options in Vegas, he could hit every one of those.

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The Jags' offense has been disjointed -- especially on late downs -- and now is dealing with weird trade rumors around Brian Thomas. The Raiders have similar issues with Jakobi Meyers, and they've been awful even with him this year. Have this total at 41.6.