- Uncertainty between correlated or causal events
- The arcs represent the conditional dependence between the events
- Events are characterized by a discrete probability distribution. Example states: (True, False), (High, Mid, Low),...
Derive the model
- By choosing (run -> inference) a simple Monte Carlo simulation of the model is conducted
which derives the state probabilities of the events.
- You can get more accurate results by increasing the number of samples in the Monte Carlo
simulation by choosing (configure -> settings).
- Insert evidence to those events for which you know the states
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- Double click on a node to change its CPT
- Click on a node to change its evidence
- Drag and drop nodes for better visibility
- Run the model (inference) for derivation
- "Change mode" to create and change nodes and arcs
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