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Penn State climatologist Michael Mann , who created the "hockey stick" graphs showing a spike in world temperatures in the 20th century. The stolen and leaked e-mails generating the most discussion focus on these graphs.
GREG GRIECO
Penn State climatologist Michael Mann , who created the "hockey stick" graphs showing a spike in world temperatures in the 20th century. The stolen and leaked e-mails generating the most discussion focus on these graphs.
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Penn State scientist at center of a storm

A few words culled from some hacked e-mails in Britain have generated chaos in the world of climate science - throwing dark clouds over Pennsylvania State University and stirring up negative publicity for the field that shows no sign of abating.

The disturbance, now known as climategate, is threatening to damage scientists' careers, inflame cynicism over the science of global warming, and perhaps alter the course of the major U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen, which began yesterday.

The stolen and leaked e-mails that have generated the most discussion focus on the so-called hockey stick graphs created by Penn State climatologist Michael Mann and others - graphs that have famously illustrated world temperatures taking a sharp turn upward in the 20th century.

But in all the sound and fury, one inconvenient truth is emerging - the e-mails give little new information and appear to have failed to change the mind of anyone within the scientific world.

One bona fide climate expert, Richard Lindzen of MIT, has gone on the record accusing Mann and others of data rigging and outright falsification. But Lindzen is well known for expressing doubts that global warming should be a serious concern. The meteorology professor says he's thought for years that the hockey stick graphs were generated through dishonest means. The newly leaked e-mails underlined what he already believed.

Many others familiar with the issue say that at worst, the whole "scandal" reveals a few endemic problems with data sharing and perhaps bias in this field, but that any accusations of misconduct are unjustified and insult the entire scientific enterprise.

The consensus that human activity has altered the atmosphere and warmed the planet rests on much more than a hockey stick.

The controversy began last month when hackers broke into a server holding a decade of e-mails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia in England. The CRU is one of three institutions leading efforts to chart the climate's course over the last millennium.

The other two big players in this field, sometimes known as "paleoclimatology," include Penn State and the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

Reconstructing climate in the years before thermometers requires a kind of environmental forensics. Scientists search for clues in ancient tree rings, bore holes, coral bands and the composition of gas bubbles trapped deep in the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland.

To get those, they scuba dive off remote islands, trudge through swamps in search of ancient stumps, and brave frostbite on the ice caps.

As adventuresome as that can be, nearly all the 1,000-odd hacked e-mails communicate technical and mundane aspects of the job - details on data analysis and logistics over attending conferences, for example.

The whole controversy swirls around a small handful - most of them correspondence with or about Penn State's Michael Mann. Critics of climate research have focused on one message in 1999, which referenced a "trick" and an effort to "hide" a temperature decline.

That e-mail was written by the East Anglia climatologist Phil Jones. He wrote that he planned to use Mann's "Nature trick," referring to a paper Mann had published in the journal Nature the previous year.

That paper incorporated the tree rings, ice cores, corals, and a number of other "proxies" into a kind of formula that could approximate the world's temperature as it fluctuated over the last 1,000 years.

Also included in the graph were real temperature measurements, starting in the mid-1800s and continuing to the present.

Others before Mann had reconstructed the historical Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age that gripped the world during the 1700s, but Mann's paper was the most complete to date and revealed the influential graph that became known as the hockey stick.

Many scientists were sounding the alarm over human-generated climate change well before that graph appeared.

Phil Jones, who has stepped down temporarily as CRU director, has said publicly that he never meant to imply that he or Mann had used deception. By "trick," he said he meant only a technique for highlighting data on a graph.

The trick, said Mann, who faces a Penn State inquiry, was simply a concise way of showing the two kinds of data together - clearly indicating which was which. "There's nothing hidden or inappropriate," he said. Mann said his method of combining proxy data has withstood numerous statistical tests - lining up neatly with thermometer readings during the 150 years where they overlap.

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Comments   
Posted 04:36 AM, 12/07/2009
Steven Douglas
"Still, [Andrew Solow] said it's not obvious to experts how the hockey stick graphs are created. "These are complicated things to do, and in my opinion there has been a lack of clarity over what exactly has gone into these reconstructions," he said." And therein lies the biggest rub. Only in climate science are raw data and methodologies for reconstruction (AND model predictions) treated with so much jealousy, and so much contempt for real peer review (and don't ever point to the now thoroughly suspect and highly contaminated climate science peer review process - it isn't worth spit any more). Furthermore, the entire consensus "MANTRA" (which is precisely what it is, as no quality scientific study -- independent from climate science and related industries -- has demonstrated such an alleged consensus -- as if it meant anything at all, scientifically and not politically, let alone qualified and quantified what "consensus" means - nor am I holding my breath that there will ever be such a study. And once again, don't point to Naomi Oreskes et al debunked. What a nasty political rats nest climate science is. Have a nice backlash. It's going to be used now (by "big oil" and everyone else), coopted even, by both governments and industry (which is why it's such a perfect storm). But in the end, the scientists who sold science down the road for an ideology will all be identified, and will all go down as infamous footnotes in history. This truly is the greatest scientific hoax of all time. And from it, a new religion is born.
Posted 06:32 AM, 12/07/2009
Thoughtful&concernedvoter;
Faye - it's more than just a few words. The CRU "lost" its critical data upon which the UN's IPCC has heavily relied to try to force industrialized countries to adopt ruinous policies.
Posted 06:42 AM, 12/07/2009
tr88
I dont think we want our scientists using tricks to hide the decline when the green activists in Copenhagen are demanding 1 % of GDP per year and going up from there from each of the developed countries.
Posted 07:53 AM, 12/07/2009
gxel
Two weeks after this story breaks, and the Inquirer finally provides major coverage. No wonder this paper has not won a Pulitzer in over a decade.
Posted 07:56 AM, 12/07/2009
gxel
Does Climategate mean that Al Gore needs to give back his Peace Prize?
Posted 08:30 AM, 12/07/2009
spearhead76
Notice its called "climate change" now and not "global warming" ... I guess that covers all bases now. Too hot, climate change. Too cold, climate change. Rain today, climate change. Is this a religion or a science?
Posted 08:59 AM, 12/07/2009
Rmoen
Can't we all agree that the Climategate emails underscore the need for the United States to convene its own objective, transparent Climate Truth Commission. The emails tell me the USA must quit outsourcing its climate science to the United Nations. It defies commonsense that we allow the UN to both judge (IPCC) and advocate (Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen). -- Robert Moen, www.energyplanUSA.com
Posted 09:13 AM, 12/07/2009
Timray
i have been sent some peer reviewed reports and it seems that the Vatican was completely innocent in the Galileo trial. yes, there is serious doubt that the sun did not orbit the earth at that time and then moved out and the earth began circling the sun. disclosure: this report has been paid for by the Vaticanos Society so....who pays this jokers paycheck....exactly...the government...stop the Global Whining....if you need to feel religious realize it is your opinion not reality
Posted 11:17 AM, 12/07/2009
psyrus
I suppose its no shock that the Inky is defending the Global Warming crowd. The scientists fudged their data. Some of their jobs and funding should be cut.
Posted 01:59 PM, 12/07/2009
Politburo
Thoughtful - It is correct that the original data is gone. However this wasn't some kind of grand conspiracy as "skeptics" make it out to be. The data was discarded in the 80s when the CRU moved locations (it was not electronic data). It is incorrect to state that the IPCC relied heavily upon the data, though. It is just one piece of the puzzle. Even if you throw that data out, the conclusion does not change.
Posted 02:29 PM, 12/07/2009
Scholes
spearhead is 100% right. there is no longer falsifiability for climate change- how is it a scientific theory? WHat would be disconfirming evidence?
Posted 02:45 PM, 12/07/2009
SilverCTS
"Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science." - Dr. William Happer, Princeton University
Posted 03:03 PM, 12/07/2009
politicalcorrectnessmyace
Maybe there is legitimate science behind these theories AND this movement has morphed into a political and financial agenda. It may very well be true what these theories purport but it would be ridiculously irresponsible for the US to disperse potentially hundreds of billions of dollars without a more structured research effort that doesn't involve some deceptive clown from East Anglia.
Posted 04:24 PM, 12/07/2009
xi_lives
Fraud! Phoney!..Fire him!
Posted 04:32 PM, 12/07/2009
BFlint
THE UN CLIMATE CONFERENCE is a scam to kill Capitalism which is why Obama wants to put as many limits on businesses as possible. It was strange how Al Gore all of the sudden became the premiere scientist in the world - and got awards from his left-wing buddies who know nothing at all about the subject! Gore's buddies in the mainstream media played along too and tried to dupe the American people. We are much closer to an ICE AGE then global warming according to real scientific research.
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