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Randy

Please answer this question, it might settle an argument that has been going on for over a year now.Who is the better pitcher, C.C. Sabathia or Josh Beckett? And who would you want in your rotation for years to come?

Bill James

  (4:03 PM)

I tried to post a question there about Josh Beckett and C C Sabathia. . .seem to have lost it. The answer was, I'd rather have Beckett, because Sabathia is the size of a small peninsula, and sooner or later this will catch up to him. Thank you all for coming. I'll try to match questions and answers here. . .don't know whether it will work.

Paul (KC)

Bill: Can you please explain in this short space how a philosphy that includes the stolen base is futile, as so many of your contemporaries seem to suggest? The single base hit is more common than all extra base hits combined. So isn't this risk vs. reward talk just a bunch of hooey?

Bill James

  (4:04 PM)

That's a misunderstanding. It has never been my philosophy that including stolen bases in an offense was futile.

Jake (Mountlake Terrace, WA)

Bill, can we gleam anything from the Win Shares system after only 40-odd games, or is it a tool that's truly accurate after a full 162-game schedule?

Bill James

  (4:05 PM)

Nothing. Win Shares are a tool used to analyze a season after it is over. They have no relevance at all to a moving object.

Dan (Harvard)

Mr. James,Are you familiar with Carl Morris' work on Net Expected Run Values (NERV), given baserunner/out situations? What do you think of it?

Bill James

  (4:06 PM)

I am familiar with it. It's a very interesting idea, but there are, at least now, tremendous practical roadblocks to making any use of it. It could be that, years down the road, it will emerge as the standard way of evaluating a hitter. But it's of now practical use right now.

Tim - Cohasset, MA

Bill, I'm very interested in your work and was wondering how a 20 year old college student would get in on the ground floor working for a team like the Red Sox.

Bill James

  (4:07 PM)

Learn to throw 95.

Big Bill (NJ)

The closer-by-committee theory seems to have lost it's luster as the Sox have given the closer job to Brandon Lyon. Do you still feel that this is a viable philosophy, or did the personnel in Boston just fail to live up to expectations?

Bill James

  (4:08 PM)

I have never advocated anything remotely resembling a closer by committee. Neither, for that matter, has anybody else connected with the Red Sox, as far as I know. It's a straw man argument.

Dan (Harvard)

Mr. James,How would you describe your duties to the Red Sox?

Bill James

  (4:09 PM)

My job, as best I understand it, is to create systematic ways of thinking about real-life front office problems which are useful to the Red Sox organization.

Jeremy (Providence, RI)

Hey Bill...as both the author of the theory and a Red Sox employee does it trouble you that their record has been consistently +4 on the pythagorean standings, considering how most teams end up within plus or minus no more than two? Or doess the MANNER in which the Sox are winning (a propensity for late inning comebacks, not a hallmark of recent teams) lead you to think that there is some credence to the theory that chemistry and cohesiveness can sometimes trump statistics? Thanks

Bill James

  (4:10 PM)

Isn't that a false dichotomy? Why can't team chemistry and statistical measurements both be valid?

down in durham

From what I understand about your writtings about bullpen usage, you prefer the term "Relief Ace" and you (convincingly) have proposed a fairly speciffic usage pattern for an RA. Boston's so-called "Bullpen-by-Committee" seems to be based the larger problem of bullpen construction under considerations of marginal utility and budget constraint.

Bill James

  (4:12 PM)

That's right. There are two separate problems. . .spending the money wisely in choosing relievers, and using relievers effectively if you have them.

Rob Neyer (Portland)

Hey, I meant to tell you, the paperback edition of the NHBA is one of the more handsome softcover books I've ever seen.

Bill James

  (4:13 PM)

Why, thank you, young man. How many of these do you think we could sneak in before the readers revolt?

Clay, NY

Hi Bill - thanks for taking the time to chat. I was at a bar with my buddy last night and was thinking (I dont do this often):Why is it that a pitcher automatically gets a loss if his team is losing when he is taken out and winds up losing the game?If his team scores the same amount of runs that he let up - it's not his fault/responsibility the other pitchers let up the other runs!- Ok an example:A pitcher leaves the game in the second inning because of an injury with his team losing 1-0. The relief pitcher goes on to finish the inning and in the 3rd lets up 10 runs. They wind up losing the game 11-8. Why should the original pitcher get the loss? He had nothing to do with those other 10 runs and his team wound up scoring 8!

Bill James

  (4:15 PM)

Well, the accurate answer to your question, which you probably don't want to hear, is "because those rules were made up a long time ago when the game was played very differently, and they frequently don't work in modern baseball. They haven't worked since about 1940, and nobody is likely to change them anyway.

Jon (Medfield, MA)

In your opinion, what is better, spending millions on a key posistion player or paying two or three guys less who can all share playing time?

Bill James

  (4:16 PM)

My honest opinion is that there is no systematic difference. 50% of the time option A will be better; 50% of the time option B will be better.

Jake (Mountlake Terrace, WA)

Kansas City Royals: will they merely settle in as a slightly-above .500 team, or will they crash and burn like the 2001 Minnesota Twins? How do you see the young pitchers progressing (or regressing)?

Bill James

  (4:18 PM)

I don't honestly see tham as being any better than they have been. Pena has very significantly re-educated a bunch of the young pitchers, many of whom frankly don't look anything like they did last year. This is ONE step toward making them good major league pitchers--but it is just one step along a long road.

Eric (Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Hi Bill--Please tell us what you think of Hee Seop Choi's potential for this year and for his career. Much has been made of his walk total, but he is also striking out right now.

Bill James

  (4:20 PM)

I think Choi will be excellent. I think he is legitimate Rookie of the Year material. He's strikes out. . .so what? Alex Rodriguez is leading the American League in strikeouts, or was the last I looked. You can live with it if he hits the ball hard.

Nomar (Boston)

Am I better than Jeter?

Bill James

  (4:21 PM)

Coitenly. And it is No-mah.

Jason Rose (Chicago)

What players would you say are the most valuable commodities in all of baseball, taking into account everything (talent, age, contract status, expected durability)? I would say 1) A Rod, (2) Vlad Guerrero and (3) Mark Prior.

Bill James

  (4:22 PM)

I think I would be Prior ahead of Guerrero, but that's a REAL good list. I don't know that there is anybody else who would break up that top three.

Dan (Boston)

It was your analysis 20 years ago that demonstrated that minor league statistics are actually useful as a predictor of major league performance. Have you looked at interpreting college statistics, or is there too much noise there? Lewis mentions in Moneyball that the A's are putting a lot of emphasis on college stats, though it's not clear whether they are just eyeballing raw numbers or trying to do some sort of translation.

Bill James

  (4:23 PM)

Well, there is a tremendous amount of noise in the data, and it is not clear to me that we can filter it all out and get useful data. But its not clear that we CAN'T, either; we just don't know.

Ted (Charlottesville)

When will we get your next book?

Bill James

  (4:25 PM)

I don't know; when did you get the last one? I'll have a book to a publisher next spring. . .don't know when it will appear.

Chipper Jones, Atlanta, GA

Who do you think will win the NL East? Are the Braves as good as they have looked the past month? Or is their win-loss record flukey? Afterall, their Pythagoros suggests that they are +6 in wins right now.

Bill James

  (4:26 PM)

I think the Braves will win the division. I know people were saying their run is over, but they were saying that three years ago, four, five. I don't see it. They still look to me like the best team in the group.

Seth (Cumberland, R.I)

Hi, Mr. James -- The recent recognition of plate discipline as an important part of a player's "make-up" has led me to this question: Is ability to control the strike zone a learned skill, an innate ability, or neither/both? Could you tell us your thoughts on this question and its possible implications?

Bill James

  (4:29 PM)

In pure terms it is no doubt learned. But it is learned so early, in my opinion, that, for major league players, it functions as an innate ability. I don't think you can change a player. I don't think that you can teach Ozzie Guillen to take a walk, any more than you can teach Doug Jones to throw a fastball.

Silv (NY, NY)

Can Adrian Beltre's failure to develop at an expected rate be blamed on his abdominal issues are is there something in his statistical record that I'm missing?

Bill James

  (4:30 PM)

Not any more, unless they keep operating on him every winter. I don't know what's wrong. I expected him to have a breakout year. He hasn't done it. I don't know why.

TribeFan, Bangor, ME

Which of the following is most indicative of the potential of "phenom" Jeremy Guthrie: (1) his microscopic ERA, (2) his rather low strikeout rate, or (3) the fact that he is 24 years old and pitching in AA-ball?

Bill James

  (4:30 PM)

(2).

Phil (NJ)

Everyone knows that walks are bad for pitchers, and good for hitters. It's something that we hold for or against both parties, but it's only one event. To your knowledge, has anyone done a study to determine the proportional blame/credit a pitcher and batter should get for a single walk? Would that information be useful?

Bill James

  (4:32 PM)

Yes, that was studied many years ago. The batter has more to do with determining when a walk occurs than the pitcher does. This is really the central insight of the on-base percentage discussion--not that On Base Percentage is important; that's self-evident. But rather, that it is the hitter, more than the pitcher, who determines when a walk occurs.

Linus (Chicago, IL )

So how dangerous is Baker's handling of the young Cubs staff? And can you speak about how truly unique Sosa's development as a player has been? Linus

Bill James

  (4:34 PM)

Well, why are people down on Dusty as a manager, do you know? I always feel like I missed a page there or something. I know that a lot of my friends and colleagues don't like Dusty as a manager, but I really don't have a clue why.

eric (vermont)

who are the best talents in the red sox farm system? who could help the sox this year?

Bill James

  (4:35 PM)

My ability to answer questions about the Red Sox is limited, but Freddy Sanchez is tearing it up at Pawtucket. And he's the real deal--an actual prospect.

Matt (Houston TX)

Do you think Billy Beane is going to revolutionize the face of baseball for years to come??

Bill James

  (4:36 PM)

Revolutionize, no. He will have some impact in changing some things. But there is powerful inertia in front offices.

Silv (NY, NY)

Why is it *so* difficult for major league managers to understand that a period of 50-100 at bats is simply too small a sample from which to determine a player's major league ability, especially given the pressure of earning a job? Is there any reason that guys like Joe Thurston and Bobby Hill are in the minors, while Mark Grudzlieanick has a regular job?

Bill James

  (4:39 PM)

The problem really is that there is an inherent skepticism about young players. All teams are always half convinced to start with that this young player can't play. So if the young player comes up and hits .120 through 50 at bats, then the statistics weigh in on the side of the skeptics, and very often the balance is tipped against the young player. So. . .managers do understand the limitations of small samples, but the statistics act like a fly landing on a delicately balanced scale.

Jon (Medfield, MA)

Who is the best defensive player in baseball?

Bill James

  (4:40 PM)

Andruw Jones.

Linus (Chicago, IL )

I am not down on Baker, I am just scared of losing our obvious strength. I think Baker's done a wonderful job a a manager, (especially his handling of the bench) but i do remember you using a Pitcher Abuse Point system and its predictive value on future injuries. So the question i guess is, should i be worried or am I just being paranoid.Linus

Bill James

  (4:40 PM)

That's not me. You have me confused with some other moron. . .

Ben, NY

should the mets blow up their team full of high priced veterans and try to grow with kids like brazell, heilman, reyes, wright and huber? As well, do catchers who become first base men tend to increase productivity after the move?

Bill James

  (4:42 PM)

I don't know that there have been enough catchers who moved to first to make a convincing study. And . . .yes.

Sean (DC)

Hi Bill,Tom Tippett of Diamond Mind recently wrote an article that seemed to indicate that a team's relief staff is just as important to the team's success as it's rotation. How can this be when relievers pitch 1/2 as many innings?

Bill James

  (4:43 PM)

I didn't see the article, so I can't comment. But it is certainly true that SOME relievers pitch at moments of disproportionate impact--thus, the innings might not be a perfect measure of the impact.

Jan (Wellesley)

So Bill, have you sat in the new Green Monster seats yet? And would you still like to see a brand new ballpark, or are you a "Save Fenway" guy?

Bill James

  (4:43 PM)

I have not seen the new seats. And Fenway is a wonderful ballpark.

Jordan

There's been a lot of chatter about moving Piazza to 1B. My feeling is that he's of more value as a catcher even with all the stolen bases, especially with offense at such a premium for the Mets. What's your take?

Bill James

  (4:44 PM)

I'd move him, and let Mo Vaughn catch. I think he'd throw out about as many runners, and it would be more entertaining to watch.

Dan (Boston, MA)

Bill, is it me or is the entire Boston media a bunch of low-watt reactionaries? Their utter inability to understand what we were trying to do with the bullpen astonishes me.

Bill James

  (4:47 PM)

Well, we had limited ability to explain it. I don't blame the writers; hell, we probably have the best corps of baseball writers in the country. Sometimes they're a pain in the ass, and sometimes they miss the point, but still. . .would you rather have the New York writers, or the Los Angeles writers? Maybe we just didn't explain what we were doing very well. . .

Jan (Wellesley)

Bill, how do you rate the Yankees' Nick Johnson? And does it matter that with Jeter's return, he's been dropped from the second to the ninth spot in the lineup?

Bill James

  (4:49 PM)

I think he's a terrific player, hasn't really played at his true level of ability yet. It won't make any difference where he hits, I don't think.

Mosco (Madison, WI)

Any comments on the production of Sean Burroughs? Over 200 AB last year, plus steady playing time this year, and he's wallowing in mediocrity? Any comments?

Bill James

  (4:50 PM)

If you don't want him there are 22 major league teams that would be happy to have him.

Jurgen (Toronto)

Bill--What's your take on the explosive starts of Alfonzo Soriano and Rocco Baldelli? How do they manage to hit for average and power so well with such poor BB/K ratios? Are they both getting by on such raw talent that the usual rules for evalutating players don't apply?

Bill James

  (4:51 PM)

Baldelli's a lot of fun. In my office we were making fun of some scout who compared him to Joe DiMaggio, but when you see him play you realize what people are reacting to. Of course, he doesn't have DiMaggio's entire package, but he does have more than half of it.

rock-vermont

is blalock for real? what @ crede? thanks!

Bill James

  (4:52 PM)

Blalock's not going to hit .384 all year, but I expect him to finish the season as one of the top ten hitters in the league. Crede. . what's he hitting. I don't think he can play third.

Eric (Pawtucket, RI)

Lets not forget to add the Radio Talk ZShow guys in with the writes as being the best in the buisness yet also huge "reactionaries". Anyways, I go to many Pawsox games since the stadium is a short walk from my home. I REALLY like Freddy Sanchez after seeing what he can do day in and day out. Do you think the sox should bring him up soon? Or wait until next year? Can he contribute to this current team in your opinion?

Bill James

  (4:54 PM)

Well, we HAVE a pretty good shortstop, and we have a good second baseman. I certainly think Freddy can play. And I just can't comment on what my bosses ought to do with him.

Linus (Chicago, IL )

Has any baseball team you know, sponsored any comprehensive medical studies on the factors that contribute to a pitching injuries? Has the sports medicine establishment published any such study? Is there a consensus?L

Bill James

  (4:57 PM)

Well, it's been studied and studied and studied, but it's an immensely complicated subject, and I don't know that we're gaining on it at all. There are 40 factors involved in the discussion--pitch counts, and age, and pitch selection, and mechanics, and game time, and usage patterns, and throwing between starts, and. . .and there is just no way to stablize the discussion so that we can focus on one factor without being distracted by the others. There is no consensus, and there is no real KNOWLEDGE. There is a hell of a lot of guesswork.

Eric (Massachusetts)

Bill, is infield defense overrated? I remember that in the offseason Red Sox beat writers and sports radio hosts were critical of them signing Todd Walker over Rey Sanchez. I think Walker brings much more to the table. I'd always take a good hitter/average fielder over a good fielder/average hitter.

Bill James

  (5:00 PM)

Well, Walker's been great. . .absolutely the best #2 hole hitter I ever saw, except that Sandberg hit second one year when he was having an MVP season. But part of the mix is, his defense is just far better than he is given credit for. People got an idea that he couldn't field, but he's been fine. And our infield defense has been fine, which frankly I was very worried about going into the season.

Jan (Wellesley)

Bill: How important if defense at first base? Primarily are you looking for a good bat at first, since mostly first basemen just have to be able to catch a ball thrown to them?

Bill James

  (5:01 PM)

Mientkiewicz cost us (the Red Sox) a game the other day by making a play that nobody else in baseball would have made. So sometimes it's very important. . .it just gets left out of the discussion somehow.

Noah (Rockport, ME)

How important is batting order? I for one think Bill Mueller should be batting in the second spot for the Red Sox instead of Todd Walker, but Walker does do a nice job.

Bill James

  (5:02 PM)

There is no real evidence that it matters. What matters is having good hitters. Who hits second and who hits sixth. . .there is little evidence that it makes any difference.

Andrew (Bryn Mawr, PA)

Did the Phils simply squander umpteen millions on Jim Thome? He hasn't hit much this season.

Bill James

  (5:02 PM)

He will. But man, they did pay a lot for him.

Andrew (Seattle)

Bill, do you still employ an assistant? Should we be watching out for another Neyer or Sickels?

Bill James

  (5:03 PM)

The young man who works for me now, Matthew Namee, is probably the smartest guy I ever had around here. Thanks for asking.

Kevin (Harrisburg, PA)

Bill, do you think the comparisons of Randy Wolf to Glavine are legit?

Bill James

  (5:04 PM)

Yes. If you put Wolf on the Braves, he would win 18-20 games.

Geoff, St. Louis

Who do you think is better at leadoff, a speedy low OBP player, or a slower higher OBP player(im guessing you will say the second)?

Bill James

  (5:05 PM)

I would say the second. Casey Stengel led off World Series games with guys like Bob Cerv, Elston Howard and Norm Siebern. So what did HE think?

Sancho (Chicago)

Bill,Is it possible for Corey Patterson to be productive with a 9/1 k/bb ratio, or will he repeat his performance form last season, when he started well and fizzled?

Bill James

  (5:07 PM)

Can you name a player who WAS productive with a 9-1 K/W ratio? I can't think of one offhand. You always want to leave room for the exceptional player, but. . .he'd have to be REALLY exceptional.

Todd (Gainesville, FL)

Hi...given the import of walk rate for both batters and pitchers (and the import of strikeout rate for pitchers), could you comment on MLB's use of the Questec system? It seems to me that a "revolutionary" analysis that relies on these particular K/BB rates demands an objective interpretation of the strike zone....

Bill James

  (5:08 PM)

I'm all for it. I think it's a wonderful thing. And. . .believe it or not, I realized, as a baseball fan, that the strike zone was getting better before I knew what was causing it. I could SEE that the umpires were getting more consistent. So how bad was the umpiring, before this came along. It's great. . .I wish they could have done it 15 years ago.

Boss Hog (Montana)

Bill, Fred McGriff...hall of famer or not?

Bill James

  (5:09 PM)

Not.

Tim, Boston

Do you think the Red Sox have any big sleepers in the minors that maybe we might not know about?

Bill James

  (5:09 PM)

Dozens of them.

J (NY)

Do you notice anything wrong w/ Damon so far this season? His BA is a bit low, would the Sox turn to Walker to lead off like he did for the Reds?

Bill James

  (5:10 PM)

There's nothing wrong that I know of. He's just hitting ropes at people. He has usually struggled early in the season.

Jesse(Toronto,Ontario)

What is your opinion on the blue jays so far this year? They seem to have used the Oakland philosophy and are in line for a potential playoff berth in the next few years. Your thoughts?

Bill James

  (5:12 PM)

Well, I think that is right, but I have been surprised by some things they have done. You know, it may turn out that Billy and JP together were better than either of them working separately. We just don't know. . .

tim-st louis

Given Fernando Vina's exceptional defensive ability, should the Cardinals keep him despite his low offensive output considering they have quite a lot of offensive talent elsewhere in the lineup? In other words, does he save enough runs defensively to offset his low batting numbers?

Bill James

  (5:13 PM)

I think he did in his best years. I haven't seen him this season, so I don't really know exactly where his skills are now. But I certainly think it is POSSIBLE that his defense could make a weak bat worth carrying, even if he doesn't start hitting the way he has.

Eric (Buenos Aires, Argentina)

If contract status and age are non-factors (in a fantasy world, within which I ask my question, I can, of course, define the rules), who would make up your five-man rotation for the rest of the year?

Bill James

  (5:14 PM)

Let's see. . .Prior, Zito, Pedro, Schilling. Casey Fossum? One of the Houston guys, I guess.

Jason (Atlanta, GA)

Who is your favorite baseball player to watch?

Bill James

  (5:15 PM)

Tony Batista.

zkg (Philadelphia)

Rafael Palmiero -- HOFer or not?

Bill James

  (5:15 PM)

Yes.

tim-st louis

Why aren't there more successful knuckleballers in the game? Is it just that hard to throw that pitch and control it enough?

Bill James

  (5:16 PM)

For exactly the same reason there aren't more belly dancers on the Supreme Court.

anthony xxx NY

which, if any, of the young pitchers of today will continue their dominance for the next 10 years: Wood, Prior, Zito, Hudson, Mulder, just to name a few

Bill James

  (5:17 PM)

Prior.

Brian (Indy)

Who is your second favorite player to watch, Counsell?

Bill James

  (5:18 PM)

Yeah, Counsell's fun. Eckstein is fun. I like Baldelli, and Carlos Beltran. Kevin Millar is fun.

tim-st louis

Who's the best bad-ball hitter in baseall? It seems to me Vlad Guerrero hits the ball just as hard outside the strikezone as in better than anyone else(and he certainly doesn't mind swinging at them either)

Bill James

  (5:19 PM)

Sure. Vladimir. But Soriano, too. . .that guy hits line drives out of his hat.

Jason (Atlanta, GA)

It seems like a lot of people have either twisted or grossly misinterpreted your writing (e.g., Jeff Bagwell as a rookie will win the NL batting title). What mistaken impression about your work would you most like to clear up?

Bill James

  (5:22 PM)

Well, the biggest surprise about writing is how hard it is to avoid being misunderstood. Whatever you write, somebody will misunderstand it. But you know, I have to take responsibility for the MISunderstandings, too. If I didn't want to be misunderstood, I should have been clearer to begin with.

Adam

Funny to see you draw the HOF line between Palmeiro and McGriff--most commentators these days note that their career statistics are very similar. Why does Palmeiro get your nod over McGriff?

Bill James

  (5:23 PM)

I think he's a better player. McGriff has a .514 career slugging percentage; Palmeiro .571. that's not a ditch; that's a canyon. I don't think it is THAT hard to distinguish between them.

Derek (Brighton)

Bill, can you please send out the word to the local press corp, as well as the talk show yahoos, that Manny has been playing some great ball this year? He's made 2 phenomenal plays in the field, scored a runs with heads-up baserunning and still hitting away, like it's a bore. Is his self-imposed media boycott really enough to temper the great play he's displayed this year?

Bill James

  (5:25 PM)

No lie. I'm glad you noticed. Last night he made a terrific play in left, caught a ball an inch off the ground.

Kevin (Harrisburg)

What do you think of Counsell stealing a base with his team up by 6 (or was it 7)?

Bill James

  (5:27 PM)

I didn't know he had done that. But I'm of the "They don't stop hitting when they're up six, do they?" school.

Jon (Medfield, MA)

Have you spoken to Nomar about not always swinging at the first pitch or do his numbers speak for himself?

Bill James

  (5:28 PM)

Well, if YOU were Nomar, and Bill James started telling YOU how to play baseball, how would YOU react? Let's not go there.

Bill James

  (5:30 PM)

Hey, guys, I'd better sign off. Thanks for all your questions. . .go Red Sox. I'm sorry that we didn't get more qeustions about Moneyball, and also that no one gave me a clear opportunity to point out that the Red Sox have a better bullpen ERA than the Yankees do, or that we are below the major league average in blown saves. Next time, I guess. Bill