#1
Seleznev Threatens Rupture of Russia-NATO Treaty 

Moscow, Oct 14 (Interfax) -- Russian Duma Chairman Gennadiy Seleznev
has confirmed that the Duma may initiate the rupture of the Russia-NATO
treaty if force is used in the Balkans.

  He said during a meeting with a British parliamentary delegation, led
by House of Commons Speaker Betty Boothroyd, on Wednesday [14 October] that
the deputies "are deeply concerned about the situation in Kosovo."  He also
said that the Duma has sent a delegation of eight deputies to Yugoslavia
"so they can see what is going on in Kosovo."

  "The precedent whereby NATO inflicts a blow on a sovereign state
without consultations with the U.N. Security Council must be prevented,"
Seleznev said.He said at the same time that the reports coming from Yugoslavia
contain "more positive" information about the current developments
in Yugoslavia.

  He said that Europe must show "greater interest in learning to tackle
its problems without the United States' active interference." The Russian
parliament trusts the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
[OSCE] and the European security charter which is being drafted by the
OSCE," he said.

#2
Russia: Problems In Military Blamed On Incompetent Recruiting
By Simon Saradzhan

Moscow, 15 October 1998 (RFE/RL) -- The chief of the Russian Army's
conscription office, Vladislav Putilin, said last week that the Defense
Ministry plans to start holding recruiters personally responsible for each
man they draft. 

  Putilin's announcement comes in the wake of a number of shooting incidents
involving recruits --including some at nuclear-weapons sites-- reported in
the Russian media in recent months. The issue of recruitment, a perennial
problem in the Russian armed forces, has become more acute in the past few
years. The avoidance of obligatory military service has risen due to a host
of reasons ranging from the Russian army's involvement in Chechnya, to
chronic hazing, low or no pay, and poor living conditions. 

  Putilin said that recruiters may even be fired if a soldier whom they have
recruited, despite physical or mental inadequacy, commits a serious crime. 

  At the same time Sergei Ushakov, spokesman for the Chief Military
Prosecutor's Office, says his office has plans to sue incompetent
recruiters to recover the cost of drafting and discharging each inadequate
recruit they have found fit for service.

  Ushakov said more than 4,000 young men conscripted last spring subsequently
had to undergo treatment at military hospitals before joining their units.
Last year alone, 680 soldiers from Defense Ministry troops were discharged
after military doctors found that they had been recruited despite having
serious illnesses.

  A recent check of Moscow enlistment and registration offices has revealed
that 68 young men were found fit for service and drafted despite suffering
from such serious disorders as epilepsy and other neurological illnesses.

  Putilin says both enlistment offices and military doctors should develop
new and more sophisticated psychiatric tests to discover physical and
mental disorders in a more timely fashion. Such tests, he said, could
screen out soldiers prone to acts such as shooting their comrades and
commanders.

  Early this week (Oct. 12), Ushakov said that as many as 20 servicemen
serving in the Strategic Missile Forces --known as RVSN-- who may have had
access to Russia's nuclear arsenal had been diagnosed with various mental
and psychiatric disorders in 1997-1998. The soldiers were subsequently
discharged from service.

  Ushakov said some of those discharged were responsible for guarding RVSN
arsenals and therefore could have had access to nuclear weapons.

  "It was possible," Ushakov said when asked whether mentally disturbed
soldiers and non-commissioned officers could have mishandled the atomic
arms they were guarding. Ushakov would not disclose either the names of
those discharged or where they served. He said there were no figures yet
available for how many mentally disturbed soldiers had been discharged in
the entire RVSN.

  But RVSN spokesman Mikhail Deryugin said by phone Monday that he was
unaware of any soldiers discharged from his force due to mental problems.
Deryugin also stressed that only officers get to control missiles on duty.
Soldiers do guard arsenals, he said, but are not able to detonate warheads
that can be activated only by a well-trained officer.

  According to a recent report by the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office,
compared to other units of the Russian military, RVSN last year saw the
sharpest rise in the number of crimes committed by its servicemen. The
number of crimes in RVSN was 25 per cent more in 1997 than in the year
before. 

  RVSN is the most important element in Russia's nuclear triad, which also
includes atomic submarines and long-range aviation, and each of its
recruits is supposed to pass stringent medical and psychiatric checks both
when he is conscripted and when he joins his unit.

  Despite this system of double checks, however, sub-standard soldiers can
still end up serving in Russia's nuclear triad. Last month, a young sailor
killed eight of his fellow servicemen and threatened to blow up a
nuclear-powered submarine at the Russian navy's Northern Fleet headquarters
near Murmansk. After killing his comrades, 19-year-old Alexander Kuzminykh
locked himself up in his Akula-class submarine's torpedo bay and threatened
to blow the vessel up. He then committed suicide before law-enforcers could
lay their hands on him.

  Kuzminykh had passed all medical tests when he was conscripted at a St.
Petersburg enlistment office. He was found fit even though he had suffered
from a mental disorder and had been inhaling toxicants. In addition,
Putilin said last week that Kuzminykh had volunteered to serve on a nuclear
submarine and passed additional medical and psychiatric tests with high marks.

  The editor-in-chief of the Defense Ministry's Military Medical Journal,
Leonid Galin, said that the tests administered often fail to reveal all
mental and psychiatric disorders. He noted that some latent disorders
develop into an acute, and thus detectable, condition only in times of
increased stress 

  All these reports underscore a serious problem in the forces guarding
Russia's nuclear arsenal. They also suggest that an above-average incidence
of mental illness can be added to the catalogue of problems afflicting
Russia's armed forces as a whole. 
 

#3
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
15 October 1998

PRIMAKOV BASHES PRIVATIZATION... During a speech Wednesday to the upper
chamber of Russia's parliament, the Federation Council, Prime Minister
Yevgeny Primakov lashed out at how privatization has been carried out in
Russia. Primakov said his government had postponed sales of stakes in both
the state oil company Rosneft and the giant Svyazinvest telecommunications
holding company because they were being offered at "throw-away" prices.
Primakov also cited the example of Purneftegaz, a key Rosneft sub-unit,
which had been quietly sold for US$10 million when its market value was at
least US$600 million. "We don't need this kind of privatization," Primakov said.

Primakov reported that the members of his cabinet had been provided with
documents from the Federal Security Service, the Prosecutor General's Office
and the Interior Ministry, so that the ministers could come up with ways to
prevent the illegal flight of capital abroad. The prime minister gave
several examples of "loopholes" through which money goes abroad. Oil, he
said, is shipped to Ukraine or Belarus under false documents, ostensibly for
refining, after which it is supposed to be sent back to Russia. Instead, the
oil is sold in the West or importers understate the cost of their
merchandise in order to lower their customs payments (Russian agencies,
October 14).

During a meeting with Russia's top banker-industrialists on October 13,
Primakov said that since last August's financial meltdown, capital had been
leaving Russia at a rate of US$1.5-$2 billion dollars per month (Russian
agencies, October 13).

...WHILE STROEV AND SKURATOV TARGET AUGUST 17 DECISIONS. On Wednesday,
Federation Council Speaker Yegor Stroev urged Prime Minister Primakov to set
up a commission to look into why the government and the Central Bank decided
to devalue the ruble and freeze domestic debt payments last August 17.
Stroev said the Federation Council should urge the Prosecutor General's
Office to start criminal proceedings against those responsible for the
financial crisis. "Legal action must be initiated against those who stirred
up all the mess and who took incorrect and secret decisions which brought
Russia to its knees," Stroev said. At the time the August 17 decisions were
made, Sergei Kirienko was prime minister and Sergei Dubinin was head of the
Central Bank (Russian agencies, October 14).

On Tuesday, Prosecutor General Yuri Skuratov said that investigators from
his office and the Audit Chamber, an independent government watchdog agency
set up by the parliament, had evidence that some Central Bank officials had
violated the law on August 17. He said investigators were looking into the
freezing of GKOs (Russia's moribund short-term T-bills), and activities
involving interbank credits, ruble emission and the Central Bank's internal
expenses to see if officials had abused their positions. Skuratov stressed
that criminal proceedings would be initiated only for willful misuse of
office, not for incompetence. The investigation is expected to conclude next
month (Russian agencies, October 13).

SMALL BUSINESS GASPS FOR AIR. The economic crisis has hit Russia's
already-fragile small-business sector especially hard, with more and more
small businesses being driven into the underground economy. Ivan Grachev,
leader of the "Development of Entrepreneurship" social-political movement,
told Moskovskie novosti that around 15 percent of legally registered small
businesses in Moscow had folded since the crisis broke. Grachev said the
financial-banking crisis had completely destroyed the faith of entrepreneurs
in the state. He told the weekly newspaper that, whereas five years ago
businessmen would tell him they kept some 50 percent of their finances off
the books, today the figure is some 90 percent. Many businessmen, he added,
have decided to go completely into the shadows after having lost money in banks.

Grachev said the current state of affairs fills the coffers of organized
crime at the expense of the state treasury. At the same time, entrepreneurs
have told him that if the government would provide their businesses with
"minimum protection," they would gladly pay twice in taxes what they pay to
"kryshas" (protection rackets) in order to avoid dealing with criminals and
spending time, money and effort in maintaining "triple bookkeeping"
(Moskovskie novosti, October 11-18).

Grachev said the number of legally registered small businesses in Russia has
been falling by 100,000-150,000 per year since 1995. Today, there some
700,000. Poland, a country with a third of Russia's population, has over
twice that number.

#4
Moscow Times
October 16, 1998 
IN BRIEF: Arms Export Promise 
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS 

MOSCOW -- Russia promised a top U.S. State Department envoy it was trying to
tighten export controls to limit illegal weapons proliferation, Interfax
reported Thursday. 

  Export controls and Russia's financial crisis dominated meetings this week
with Stephen Sestanovich, an adviser to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright,
and other U.S. officials. 

  "We intend to continue active and close cooperation with the U.S. in export
control," Nikolai Berdyuzha, secretary of Russia's Security Council, was
quoted as saying by Interfax. The government has submitted a bill on export
control to the lower house of parliament, he said. 

  Still, Berdyuzha insisted that stricter export controls didn't mean Russia
would cut back on legitimate arms deals, which are a crucial source of income
for the cash-starved budget. 

#5
Moscow Times
October 16, 1998 
Capital Flight Hitting Record Highs 
By Sujata Rao
Staff Writer

  The current financial crisis has triggered a flight of capital from Russia
like never before, and economists say there is little chance this money will
return in the near future. 

  Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov said this week that $3 billion to $4 billion
had been whisked over the border since the crisis broke in mid-August. Central
Bank chief Viktor Gerashchenko put the figure even higher at $5 billion. 

  Economists said a recording-breaking $25 billion to $30 billion would be
stashed overseas this year. 

  But this is the tip of the iceberg. Christopher Granville, head of research at
Fleming UCB, said Wednesday that these statistics only take into account
falsified import and export invoices. 

  "That is not the end of the story," Granville said. "It is just the amount
that can be detected f how much more there is, is anyone's guess." 

  "There is massive anecdotal evidence that capital flight has escalated very
sharply over the summer," he added. 

  Economists say the massive flight of capital started just before the crisis,
when banks, seeing the writing on the wall, scrambled to transfer funds abroad
to avoid potential bankruptcy. 

  The panic spread like wildfire to the exporters and they also rushed to move
capital to safe havens. 

  Denis Smyslov, an economist with Global Fund Management, said exporters, who
routinely failed to repatriate 18 percent of their annual earnings, had
increased the amount to 50 percent by the end of the summer. 

  "I saw it starting in May because at the time, Russians had an understanding
of what was about to unravel, and they exported everything they could," said
Thierry Malleret, an economist with Alfa Kapital. "It came as a surprise only
to foreigners." 

  But then, Russians have had plenty of experience. Since 1991, they have hidden
an estimated $100 billion to $200 billion in foreign bank accounts.
Increasingly sophisticated means f fake import contracts, barter transactions
and foreign loans, along with hidden export earnings f have all helped fuel
capital flight. 

  Economists agree the enormous cash outflow surpasses all investment into
Russia every year: For every dollar invested in Russia, about $15 flew out. 

  Some of the capital began to wing its way home after the 1996 presidential
elections, economists said. For instance, large inflows from off-shore banking
havens such as Switzerland, Cyprus and Liechtenstein put them on list of top
investors in Russia. But Granville said a large part of that was Russian
flight capital masquerading as foreign investment. 

  Some experts estimate as much as 30 percent to 50 percent of the expatriated
capital returned to Russia's shores, mostly to the domestic bond market. 

  But with securities frozen and the ruble floating, there appears to be no
chance that more funds will return. 

  The Kremlin is evidently spooked by the exodus: It has introduced a regulation
requiring exporters to sell at least 50 percent of their hard currency
earnings on the official currency exchange. Restrictions on dollar purchases
have been imposed on importers. 

  Analysts are skeptical that such steps will stem the outflow. "All these
noises about capital controls will most likely trigger a new wave of capital
flight," Malleret said. "It is common knowledge that the more controls you
implement, the more incentive [there is] for capital to fly abroad." 

  But the state's moves on traders won't bring into the real economy the
estimated $40 billion Russians hide in dollars under their mattresses and
floorboards. The ruble devaluation and collapse of the banking system have
effectively ended Russians' brief flirtation with ruble savings. 

  All this is bad news for foreign investors or lenders who could be considering
plugging money into Russia. "It shows Russians themselves believe in the
ultimate defeat of their country," Malleret said. 

#6
Voice of America
DATE=10/15/98
TITLE=CASPIAN OIL PIPELINE
BYLINE=NICK SIMEONE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTRO:    U-S BACKED EFFORTS TO CONSTRUCT A NEW PIPELINE TO CARRY
OIL FROM THE CASPIAN SEA THROUGH TO TURKEY'S MEDITERRANEAN COAST 
APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN DEALT A SETBACK.  OIL INDUSTRY ANALYSTS SAY 
EFFORTS TO FINANCE THE MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR PROJECT ARE LIKELY TO
BE SHELVED (PUT ON HOLD) DESPITE A STRONG DESIRE BY THE UNITED 
STATES AS WELL AS THE GOVERNMENTS OF TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN TO 
PRESS AHEAD.  CORRESPONDENT NICK SIMEONE REPORTS THE SITUATION 
LEAVES AN IMPORTANT FOREIGN POLICY GOAL OF THE UNITED STATES WITH
AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE.

TEXT:  EVEN BEFORE GROUND HAS BEEN BROKEN FOR THE PIPELINE, IT 
APPEARS THE WISHES OF AT LEAST THREE GOVERNMENTS TO BUILD AN OIL 
CORRIDOR FROM THE AZERI CAPITAL, BAKU, THROUGH TO THE TURKISH 
PORT OF CEYHAN MAY FALL VICTIM TO THE FALLING PRICE OF OIL.  

THE UNITED STATES AS WELL AS TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN ALL FIRMLY 
BACK THE EAST-WEST ROUTE, INSTEAD OF A PROPOSED NORTH-SOUTH 
PIPELINE THAT WOULD TRANSPORT CASPIAN OIL THROUGH IRAN TO THE 
PERSIAN GULF.  BUT A NUMBER OF FACTORS APPEAR TO BE CONSPIRING TO
MAKE BAKU-CEYHAN PROJECT WITH AN ESTIMATED THREE BILLION DOLLAR 
PRICE TAG ECONOMICALLY UNFEASIBLE.  PAUL SAMPSON WORKS FOR THE 
LONDON-BASED "ENERGY INTELLIGENCE GROUP," WHICH PUBLISHES 
NEWSLETTERS ON THE OIL INDUSTRY. 

                        // SAMPSON ACT //

         COMMERCIALLY, IT JUST DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.  THERE'S  NOT 
         ENOUGH PROVEN OIL RESERVES IN THE CASPIAN AND THE BIG 
         CONSORTIUM IN AZERBAIJAN ALREADY HAS ONE PIPELINE GOING 
         THROUGH RUSSIA WHICH IT'S USING AND ANOTHER PIPELINE 
         GOING THROUGH GEORGIA WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE 
         OPERATIONAL IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT YEAR.  AND THEY 
         WILL USE THOSE TWO PIPELINES TO BEGIN WITH.  BUT IF 
         YOU'RE TALKING STRAIGHT ECONOMICS, THIS THIRD PIPELINE 
         GOING TO TURKEY DOESN'T MAKE SENSE:  A, THERE'S NOT 
         ENOUGH OIL AND B, IT'S JUST TOO EXPENSIVE AND I THINK 
         THE AMERICANS HAVE REALIZED THIS. 

                          // END ACT //

ADDING TO THE EQUATION ARE SUSPICIONS AMONG SOME IN THE OIL 
INDUSTRY THAT CASPIAN OIL RESERVES -- ORIGINALLY ESTIMATED TO BE 
ABOUT 200 BILLION BARRELS -- MAY NOW ONLY BE ABOUT HALF THAT 
FIGURE. 

                    // SECOND SAMPSON ACT //

         NO ONE REALLY KNOWS AND OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS THERE 
         HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF WELLS WHICH HAVE BEEN DRILLED IN 
         AZERBAIJAN THAT HAVE COME UP COMPLETELY DRY.

                          // END ACT //

THIS -- COMBINED WITH THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT BY SAUDI ARABIA 
THAT IT IS INVITING FOREIGN OIL COMPANIES BACK INTO THE KINGDOM  
-- HAVE, AS ONE FORMER OIL INDUSTRY ANALYST PUT IT, MADE OIL FROM
THE CASPIAN REGION MUCH LESS ATTRACTIVE. 

BUT THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION AS WELL AS GOVERNMENTS IN THE 
CASPIAN ARE NOT GIVING UP.  THE UNITED STATES IS OFFERING 
FINANCIAL INCENTIVES THROUGH ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS THE 
EXPORT-IMPORT BANK TO MAKE THE DEAL MORE ATTRACTIVE TO AMERICAN 
OIL COMPANIES.  AMBASSADOR RICHARD MORNINGSTAR, PRESIDENT 
CLINTON'S SPECIAL ADVISOR ON CASPIAN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT, IS 
CONVINCED THE PROJECT WILL HAPPEN BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS THE 
QUESTION.  MR. MORNINGSTAR'S SAYS ISSUES REMAIN TO BE RESOLVED, 
INCLUDING FINANCING AND AGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE OIL 
IN THE REGION.  

                     // MORNINGSTAR ACT // 

         CLEARLY, THERE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BE DISCUSSIONS AS TO
         WHAT VOLUMES WILL BE REQUIRED AND WHAT THE COMMERCIAL 
         TERMS OF THE AGREEMENT WILL BE.  AND THAT'S STILL IN THE
         PROCESS OF NEGOTIATIONS.  BUT I THINK THAT CEYHAN IS 
         ULTIMATELY GOING TO BE THE ONLY LOGICAL ROUTE.

                         // END ACT // 

THE GOVERNMENT OF AZERBAIJAN EXPECTS A DECISION ON WHETHER TO 
MOVE AHEAD WITH THE PIPELINE TO BE MADE LATER THIS MONTH, BUT 
ADMITS THE PROJECT IS FAR FROM ASSURED.  ELIN SULEYMANOV IS A 
SPOKESMAN FOR AZERBAIJAN'S EMBASSY IN WASHINGTON.    

                      // SULEYMANOV ACT // 

         THERE ARE  NO  DEFINITE DECISIONS YET.  NONE AT THIS 
         POINT.  WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHAT WILL BE ANNOUNCED.  

                          // END ACT //

APART FROM ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS, THE DECISION ON WHETHER TO GO
AHEAD WITH THE BAKU TO CEYHAN ROUTE IS LOADED WITH POLITICAL 
IMPLICATIONS FOR BOTH TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN, TWO COUNTRIES IN A 
VOLATILE REGION THAT APPEAR TO CONSIDER THE PIPELINE A WAY TO 
FURTHER CEMENT TIES TO THE WEST.  AGAIN, OIL ANALYST PAUL 
SAMPSON. 

                        // SAMPSON ACT //

         FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS, THEY'VE (AZERBAIJAN AND TURKEY) 
         BEEN IN FAVOR OF THIS PROJECT. THE AZERIS AND TURKS ARE 
         VERY CLOSE POLITICALLY AND THEY HAVE STRONG HISTORICAL 
         TIES AND THIS PIPELINE WOULD BE A SORT OF STRENGTHENING 
         OF THEIR RELATIONSHIP AND THEY'VE PUT A LOT OF TIME AND 
         DIPLOMATIC EFFORT INTO THIS PROJECT.  FOR THEM, IT WAS 
         VERY MUCH A POLITICAL SYMBOL.  AND THE AMERICANS WERE 
         SUPPORTING THEM VERY STRONGLY.  I THINK THE AMERICANS 
         WILL BE GIVEN QUITE A HARD TIME BY AZERBAIJAN AND 
         TURKEY. 

                          // END ACT //

IF THE BAKU TO CEYHAN PROJECT ISN'T REALIZED, THE POSSIBILITY 
EXISTS OF BUILDING A PIPELINE SOUTHWARD THROUGH IRAN AND TO 
TANKERS IN THE PERSIAN GULF.  

                        // SAMPSON ACT //

         THERE ARE NOW CLEAR SIGNS THAT RELATIONS BETWEEN AMERICA
         AND IRAN ARE IMPROVING SO THIS COULD ALTER THE PICTURE 
         AND I THINK AT THE MOMENT SOME U-S OIL COMPANIES ARE 
         LOOKING AT A PIPELINE GOING INTO IRAN.  AGAIN, I THINK 
         THERE WILL BE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS AND A 
         PIPELINE INTO TEHRAN WILL GENERATE MORE INTEREST.  

                         // END ACT // 

BUT THE UNITED STATES HAS NOT PUSHED FOR THIS ROUTE SINCE CURRENT
U-S SANCTIONS WOULD MEAN A LOSS FOR AMERICAN BUSINESSES 
PROHIBITED FROM INVESTING THERE.  IT'S ONE REASON, ACCORDING TO A
FORMER OIL INDUSTRY ANALYST, THAT THE UNITED STATES NOW HAS A 
HUGE IMPETUS TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT. 

#7
NATO Bomb Threats Seen as Start of Global Action
Komsomolskaya Pravda


14 October 1998
"Our commentary" by Sergey Maslov under the general heading
"Will Moscow Get Involved in World War III?":  "NATO Policy Is as
Transparent as the Water in the Atlantic" 

  NATO promised Russia the maximum transparency in its actions.  On the
whole, we are not blind.  The 430 aircraft that have been gathered into an
air strike force constitute quite a transparent hint.  It turns out that,
as a result of being acquainted, we are being offered a seat in the front
row of the audience at the public execution of Belgrade -- to make for
better appearances.  We must value this.  For it is not the gallery that
they are offering.

  A measure of tremendous educational influence is being undertaken.  It
is being undertaken for us, too.  I do not know about transparency, but
NATO will ensure the maximum visibility. Details of the probable scenario
for military actions against Yugoslavia are becoming public property.  No
aerial clashes with the Yugoslav Air Force are planned at the first stage. 

  According to outgoing FRG Defense Minister Volker Ruehe, NATO will first
inflict strikes of insignificant force.  At the same time -- in order to
hit primarily the air defense system -- "remote-action weapons" will be
used.  This means cruise missiles above all. This "limited air operation"
is to be carried out exclusively by Americans.  Since in this case it will
not be necessary to cross the air borders of the Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia, their pilots will be able to feel that they enjoy impunity.

  On poking your nose into the program notes of the theater of the
military absurd, you suddenly realize that this has happened somewhere
before.  The Americans are middling fighters in all respects.  But they are
masters at bombing.  Particularly when there is no need for this.  The
ruins of Dresden are a symbol of senseless barbarism.  Hiroshima -- there
the United States used nuclear weapons not so much against Japan as against
the USSR. There was also poverty-stricken Vietnam, which the Americans
promised to "bomb into the stone age."  Quite recently there were the
thoughtless strikes against Sudan and Afghanistan.

  In the Armageddons staged by the Americans the curtain frequently
falls along with bombs.  This is the end of everything. But in the case of
Yugoslavia no pinpoint strikes can bring matters to a close.

  Naturally, NATO is also working through a scenario for an invasion by
ground forces.  The details are not being divulged. On the other hand
something else has surfaced -- something that our mass media have hardly
noticed.  Washington has already taken aim not only at targets in
Yugoslavia but also at Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which it
proposes to reformulate.  As a result, NATO's tasks are to be altered
radically.  The present military bloc with a limited zone of responsibility
is, in the future, to come to the defense of "common interests" all over
the world in circumvention of the United Nations.

  The new strategy would enable NATO one fine day to proclaim even the
entire globe a "trouble spot."  Then it will be possible to embark on fire
fighting.  The policy of the alliance is as transparent as the water in the
North Atlantic.

#8
Rising Emigration Rate Viewed 

Moskovskiy Komsomolets
1 October 1998
Article by Irina Bobrova: "Another Such Crisis, and We Will
Be Left Without Jews. The Number of Those Interested in Emigration
to Israel Has Increased Tenfold"

 In China the most terrible curse is "May you live in times of
change." Our people, it seems, feel that if this has fallen to their
lot, it is better to experience the changes somewhere far
away.

  Those wishing to shrug off their native parts increases with
every passing day.

  "My daughter has been living there for five years now," says
an old woman in rubber galoshes in the waiting room of the United
States diplomatic representation. "She has been asking me to come
for a long time, but how could I leave everything? But now there is
nothing to lose. What do I have left, if there is nothing to buy a
piece of bread with."

  The favorite countries of Russian emigrants are Israel,
America, and Canada. For a start, we turned to the diplomatic
representations of these countries.

  At the press center of the Canadian Embassy we were informed
that the number of emigrants is growing every year. But over the
past two months this figure jumped sharply upward. The Canadian side
is in a position to accept 250,000 people from all over world. Last
year fewer than 5,000 came from Russia. Now there are three times as
many applications.

  The press secretary of the Israeli embassy, Zeyev Ben-Arye,
commented on the situation in this way:

  "The number of those interested in leaving has risen tenfold.

  The real number of emigrants has risen by a factor of 2.5. There are
especially many provincials. As a Jewish state, we strive to gather
in Jews from the entire world, and we are glad to have them. But now
people are running to us because of the crisis. We are not
interested in such emigrants..."

  The queues at the diplomatic representations have grown, but
the procedure for  receiving a visa has not gotten tougher. As
before, exit difficulties arise only with Great Britain and South
Korea.

  We wondered whether there is anyone who wants to share with us
all the burden of the crisis. This is what we were told at the
Federal Migration Service:

  "We will sum up the results at the end of the year, but we can
already say that there are many wanting to emigrate only to the
capital. True, those who wanted to come have come already, and those
who were only planning took too long thinking about it... Although,
as before, there are many forced emigrants, for example, from
Chechnya.

  There have always been many requests for Russian citizenship.
And, as it has turned out, this year has been no exception. At the
Commission on Questions of Citizens under the President, we were
informed that there have been almost twice as many such applications
this year than there were in 1997. They are coming primarily from
citizens from the near abroad (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Latvia,
Estonia). As a rule, they want to receive a second
citizenship.

  Russian citizenship is renounced by very few. Not so long ago,
a woman with four children from Vologda Oblast, in a show of
protest, gave up her Russian citizenship. Now, they say, she sits in
Vologda, gnashing her teeth.

#9
From: "Rachel Douglas" 
Subject: "Ellochka"
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998

from 
The New Federalist
October 19, 1998

Financial Crash Shreds `Ellochka's' Illusions
by Roman Bessonov

*The author, a Russian
journalist, looks into the minds of
thousands of young Russians, members of
the minority of Russian citizens who
found a measure of prosperity in
Moscow's high-flying financial sector,
and are now suddenly unemployed.*

   The Soviet people were used to the
fact that newspapers did not tell them
the whole truth. At the same time,
Soviet propaganda campaigns usually
contained some element of tangible
reality. One could believe that Marshal
Tukhachevsky was a German spy or not,
one could suspect that Kirov was
murdered on Stalin's orders, or by
chance, but, it was obvious the Angara
Hydroelectric Power Plant was really
built, and the first manned spacecraft
was indeed launched.

	Older Russians, both ``reformist''
and ``conservative''--the fans of
Yeltsin, or of Zyuganov--have preserved
some of that peculiar confidence in the
mass media. One person might read
Izvestia and another Sovetskaya
Rossiya, but when financial pyramids of
the MMM type were suddenly eliminated
by the state, both the ``free market''
advocates and the ``social justice''
supporters thought that this was
precisely one of those grains of
genuine fact, embedded in the
oligarchy-manipulated papers. At that
historical moment, in 1994, both the
``Yeltsin-loyal'' and
``Yeltsin-disloyal'' parts of the
population were implicitly reconverted
to belief in the state, although the
existing state, with its huge taxes and
immense social stratification, is
equally distant from free market ideals
and from Marxism-Leninism.

	This belief in a new ``era of
stabilization,'' as Prime Minister
Chernomyrdin identified it, made
millions of people, despite the
difficulties of everyday life, grow
accustomed to new benefits, few as they
were, but quite tangible, like private
shops with a broad assortment of goods,
some of them relatively cheap, but clean
and nicely packaged. It wasn't
paradise, but it was a real
{super}-market.

	The arrival of the farce named
``democratic reforms,'' which grew out
of the 1980s show called
``perestroika,'' had undermined not
only people's traditional beliefs, but
some basic values. People now learned
that it is not necessary to work in
order to earn a living, and that each
person should care only for himself,
not for some ``collective,'' and
certainly not for the country. The
renunciation of communism became
renunciation of the very notion of a
common cause or common effort. This
newly-imposed nihilistic set of beliefs
was imprinted on the developing and
sensitive consciousness of the young
Russians who entered adulthood in the
early and mid-nineties.

	In this postindustrial system,
many men and women found employment in
areas remote from their previous
occupation, but enabling them at least
to imagine a glimmer of ``a decent
life.'' The adjustment was obvious by
1994, when the Moscow paper Moskovsky
Komsomolets, the vanguard of sexual and
later monarchist propaganda, became
much more popular than the opposition's
Zavtra.

	Passively but steadily absorbing
the new Moscow pseudo-culture, the
former workers and intelligentsia of
the Russian capital studied the
``science'' of generally accepted
economics, often along with basic
English and PC (personal computer)
grammar. Thousands and thousands of
them moved into the pseudo-productive
sphere of petty trade or went to work
for subsidiaries of Western firms. The
most ``advanced'' could even visit
night clubs, and the vast majority of
Muscovites readily voted for President
Yeltsin and Mayor Yuri Luzhkov.

The Base and the Superstructure

	This implicit trust in the
``corporate oligarchical criminal
system'' (G.A. Yavlinsky, 1998) had a
definite base in mass psychology--the
petty consumerist mind set, imposed by
degenerated Marxists from Nikita
Khrushchov to Mikhail Gorbachov; the
former introduced corn-growing above
the Arctic Belt, in order to ``surpass
the United States,'' and the latter
launched a jewelry-producing
``cooperative'' in the backyard of each
secret submarine research institute, in
order to achieve the ideal of ``more
complete satisfaction of material needs
of the population.''

	Russia's transition from
degenerated Marxism to degenerated
liberalism on the basis of petty
egoistical consumerist principles, was
really too smooth to be regarded as a
real ``anti-Communist revolution.'' The
few genuine and faithful ideological
outlaws, the Russian inakomyslyashchiye
(different-thinking people), as opposed
to career dissidents of the
Bukovsky-Shcharansky sort, soon after
the euphoria of 1991 felt themselves
even more isolated from their own
country, their own people, and
implementation of their ideals, than
they had been before.

	The revolution in economic
practice that did take place, was
carried out from the outset by an
``invisible front'' of unofficial but
increasingly powerful ``supply system''
influentials, servicing privileged
shops and sanatoriums, proceeding on to
``socialist show business'' and
``socialist rock music clubs,'' and
finally enjoying what Yegor Gaidar, his
Mont Pelerinite co-thinker Vitali
Naishul, and their mutual friend Pyotr
Aven, regarded as
``institutionalism''--official
acknowledgement of the shadow economy,
giving the green light for its
unlimited power.

	The ``institutionalists'' came to
power against the resistance of a fair
part of the state and economic
apparatus, and to the disgust of
believing Marxists and believing
Christians alike, but with a great deal
of support from the generally rotten
layer of consumerist egoism, from
future ``shuttle traders''
(chelnoki), ``hard currency''
streetwalkers, and a lot of Komsomol
officials and intelligence officers.

	The ``institutionalists''
exploited ``free tradism'' at the
beginning of their political careers,
only to convert to becoming
corruption-fighters who speak on behalf
of the ``interests of state'' after
managing to merge with privileged
private bankers. Their base in the
public consciousness, comprising
shuttle traders who became heads of
private companies or even mayors of
towns, streetwalkers who turned into
rock stars for the 1996 presidential
elections, not to mention retired
Komsomol and KGB influentials who
converted into image-makers in
companies like ``Niccolo M.'' (for
Macchiavelli), and so forth, has been
steadily, stage after stage, becoming
the pillar of a comprador ``reformist''
society, where a gangster is the image
of a successful person, and the
cultural elite is headed by a fat,
elderly mini-skirted streetwalker who
howls rock music versions of the
dissident poems of Stalin's victim Osip
Mandelstam.

	A Russian patriot of any creed,
including Moslem, Judaic, or ``even''
Catholic, could feel nothing but
nausea, at switching on the TV and
facing a variety festival with a wild
mixture of old Odessa humor, artificial
Gypsy folklore, old official
``statehood pride'' (long live Iosif
Kobzon!), and old Moscow merchant pomp,
ending with great thanks to the
official sponsor, KGB
operative-turned-businessman
``philanthropist,'' Shabtai Kalmanovitch.
But for a petty soul in search of
hedonist pleasure, this sort of
``art,'' along with sexual revelations
on the ``About This'' TV program or
`Cool Girl'' magazine (``a magazine
for real girls''), is quite
appropriate.

	This disgraceful idyll of
institutionalism in practice has
suddenly been shattered by the global
financial crisis.

The Crash of the Golden Coach

	Ilya Ilf and Yevgeni Petrov, the
brilliant comic writers of the Soviet
1920s, really presaged the mentality of
today's crisis-stricken young
Muscovites. Ilf and Petrov's splendid
consumerists used to keep their savings
not in a bank, but in their socks or
stockings. In their novel ``The Twelve
Chairs,'' there was Ellochka, a
character who used only forty words
(``Smart guy,'' ``Nice thing,'' ``Nasty
husband,'' and a few more such
phrases). She was the classic type of a
shuttle trader-streetwalker
personality, enjoying the Bukharinist
``Enrich yourself!'' motto of the NEP
(New Economic Policy) period.

	Thirty-five years later,
Khrushchov's ``thaw'' opened the doors of
the political prisons, and|...|the mouth
of Ellochka. At the next winding of the
century's clock, a Versace-dressed
Ellochka named Raisa Maximovna
Gorbachova stood proudly next to her
vaguely smiling nasty husband, with
Margaret Thatcher on the other side.

	That couple's cultural and
financial entertainer, Sir Robert
Maxwell, who had a certain skill at
landing his personal aircraft on the
glass roof of a luxury building in
London, may have been betrayed by the
Mont Pelerinite ``institutionalist''
lobby of Swiss citizen Boris Bierstein
and other shadowy fortune-makers for
Bush-baby Boris Yeltsin. The story of
how ``Bush legs'' came to be flying
across the Atlantic Ocean on the
KGB-made wings of Soyuzkontrakt might
tell more about Maxwell's death
than Interpol has ever turned up. But
for the average narrow-minded admirer
of Pugachova and Kobzon, Maxwell's
ocean tragedy was no more important
than the change in the state flag.
Ellochka was busy in front of the
mirror, testing out Estee Lauder
products to replace her Latvian
perfume.

	``Who's the sweetest in the world?
	
	You, in the `Golden Lady'
stockings!''

	Still, even in the best period of
the new ``emerging Ellochka,'' stockings
were used not only for posing for
Playboy and Cool Girl, but for the same
purpose Ellochka's grandmother, the
post-revolution whore, had used them.
Beyond her petty pride and disdain for
the undeveloped workers, teachers and
scientists, those pariahs of the
postindustrial wholesale-comprador
society, Granddaughter Ellochka had a
deeply hidden concern for future, the
anxiety of Cinderella knowing that the
ball will come to an end. This anxiety
about possible ``black days,'' inherited
from the grandmother, was buried under
a heap of Versace-made dresses and
bijouterie, in a long stretch stocking,
and had the material form of
greenbacks--U.S. dollars.

	In July 1996, Ellochka was much
more mobilized and prepared for ``black
days,'' holding an open visa to France,
Britain, the U.S., or, in the worst
case, Israel, than in August 1998 when
day ``X'' arrived--not in a party
apparatchik's suit or a gloomy
general's uniform, but in the handsome,
smiling image of Sergei Dubinin.

	Where are you, oh ``safest'' account
in the ``safest'' bank? Where are you,
golden VISA card? The ATM is silent. No
fairy can make it work. The mechanical
stocking is gone. So, only the physical
stocking can help. It is time to fill
it with greenbacks, before they hit the
ceiling. The despised ruble is wiped
out, like cigarette ashes from the
ring-bedecked Ellochka's hand.

	Where are you, nasty husband? Why
are you so gloomy? And what is the
matter with your new coat? The
customers? They tried to get the money
your boss invested into GKOs? God, what
are you going to do now? You'll not get
a job in Maslyukov's office? Why? O
yes--Primakov certainly remembers why
you were kicked out from the First
Department....

	Meanwhile, the radio said that
Dubinin was gone, and his deputy
abandoned the currency corridor.
Ellochka rushed to the last bank that
was still open, and got rid of her last
rubles for 19.8, as the rate was going
to become 20.8 in the evening, and 300
by next month, the papers wrote. And
Ellochka, who began her shining career
in Soviet times, certainly believed the
mass media.

	Arriving at her own job, a
bijouterie-trading joint venture, where
she spent fantastic evenings as a
secretary, Ellochka found a pale
foreign co-owner who was packing
things, no longer paying attention to
her nice thighs wearing the once-famous
``Golden Lady'' product.

	According to Kommersant, on
September 8, about 200,000 Ellochkas
and husbands in Moscow were unemployed.
A luxury boutique in Tverskaya Street
hung out a small notice: ``The shop is
closed due to the absence of
personnel.''

	On September 9, Ellochka decided
to buy a bit of her favorite smoked
ham, which now cost 155 rubles per kg.,
but she had only greenbacks. With a
sigh, she left home, gloomily gazing at
the lonely can of cucumbers in a shop
window. Arriving at the same bank, she
was puzzled to see a huge crowd. She
looked at the board and nearly fainted:
the dollar was at 13.5 rubles! She fled
home for her Golden Lady, but by the
time she returned, the dirty green
paper had fallen to 11.5.

	The poor, unemployed Cinderella
stumbled back home, with an empty
stocking, aching head and a hopeless
hate for the state, the ruble, the
dollar and her own belief in the laws
of the market.

	The clock has struck twelve. The
golden coach turned into a rotten
pumpkin. Everything was blurred with
tears, mixed with French eyelash paint:
a communist was entering the
government; the market was nonetheless
powerfully re-emerging near the
underground passage, with the same
prices as before; the same papers that
have been seducing her with the
paradise of free trade were now
promoting protectionism and
state-controlled economic management; a
cunning Mr. Gerashchenko was smiling
from the TV, and the look in his eye
seemed to say to the sky: ``Now, how to
amuse them today?'' Ellochka sighed, and
thought of a handsome Mr. Cavallo, but
his hooves had already vanished in the
wind.

 #10
From Russia Today press summaries
http://www.russiatoday.com
Novye Izvestiya
October 15, 1998
Lead Story
The Government Can Suddenly Hear 
Summary

 
  Otto Latsis commented on recent statements by Prime Minister Yevgeny
Primakov, whom he noted has suddenly heeded the public's criticism of the
economic situation. 

  However, Latsis noted that the statements have only concerned the actions
of the previous governments. Primakov spoke about the scandals related to
the privatization of Rosneft, Svyazinvest and Purneftegas, and about owners
who did not fulfill their investment obligations. He also mentioned the
misappropriation of funds connected to supplies of oil to Belarus and
Ukraine, and artificially reduced customs duties on imports. All these
issues have been targets of the keen interest of the media over recent
years, Latsis noted. 

  However, Primakov has barely answered questions about the activities of his
own Cabinet. The nation still does not know what the ruble-to-dollar
exchange rate will be in a week, and it is very hard to plan one's budget
without this. Russians do not know if the high inflation from this fall
will continue, like in it did through the whole of 1992. 

  Primakov discussed the problems of the country's economic situation: two
tranches of IMF credits have not arrived, imports have fallen by four times
and import duties have declined correspondingly. 

#11
From Russia Today press summaries
http://www.russiatoday.com
Komsomolskaya Pravda
October 15, 1998
Lead Story
Komsomolka Produced the New General Secretary Brezhnev 
Summary

  The daily wrote about Andrei Brezhnev, 37, a grandson of Soviet Communist
Party General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev (1964-1982). 

  Brezhnev on Wednesday held a news conference to introduce the new "All
Russian Communist Movement," in which he holds the post of general
secretary. He said that the movement numbers 5,000 members in 47 Russian
regions. 

  Brezhnev's grandson said he was inspired by the thousands of letters from
Komsomolka readers, who wrote to him after he published an article in the
daily defending the political course of his grandfather. 

  Brezhnev said he would not associate his movement with the current the
KPRF, the largest Communist party in Russia, headed by Gennady Zyuganov. He
accused the KPRF of deviating from the Marxist-Leninist course and accused
the party of becoming a "haven for members of Mikhail Gorbachev's Communist
Party Political Bureau, who messed up the country." 

  Brezhnev did not say where the money for his movement came from. He only
said that in the future they hoped for donations from people: "Grandfather
did much good in the country and abroad, and if we ask people, they will
not turn away from us." The main points of the new movement's program
include nationalization of large property and strict control on prices.