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INSIDER INFO—NOVEMBER 2002 Executive Summary Governor's Race Congressional Update State House Update State Senate Update |
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Voters, especially in the southeast, said they liked Ed Rendell
because of his leadership of the state's largest city. But they also liked
their state lawmaker, in many cases a Republican, returning the GOP to
Harrisburg with a 29-21 majority in the Senate and a 109-94 majority in
the state House of Representatives. Some analysts see an almost subconscious effort by voters to get
the best leader in the governor's office but to put some checks and
balances on his Democratic leanings by electing Republicans to work with
him. Rendell, the former big-city mayor who few gave any chance in 2001, charmed Pennsylvania in his uphill campaign to be elected governor as the first Philadelphian in nearly a century. Now he will have to depend on his legendary powers of persuasion to work with the GOP in the General Assembly to solve the state's fiscal crisis and to move any of his agenda forward.
Governor's Race What would Ed Rendell be if the election for governor was held and
the results from the City of Philadelphia, his home base, were not
counted. He would still be governor-elect—by more than 40,000 votes. Instead, by carrying his home city by a 6-1 margin (only Saddam
Hussein or Fidel Castro could beat that margin), Rendell became
governor-elect by more than 300,000 votes. He had 53 percent of the vote
total compared to 44 percent for Republican Mike Fisher. The statewide
totals were nearly 1.9 million votes for Rendell and nearly 1.6 million
for Fisher. As Millersville University pollster and guru, Dr. G. Terry Madonna,
said, "Ed Rendell took the curse of the Philadelphia mayorship and turned
it into an argument that won him the governorship, not even counting the
city." Republican State Chairman Alan P. Novak said, "He had $40 million
and 10 years of flattering TV beamed to 40 percent of state voters. That's
a nice head start." The keys to Rendell's victory:
So why did he win by only nine points, instead of the 17 to 20
percentage point margins shown in mid and late October polls? Because this
is still Pennsylvania. And in Pennsylvania, statewide Democrats, even good
ones, are guaranteed wins in only Allegheny, Philadelphia, Lackawanna and
Luzerne. Keep in mind, no open seat Democrat, running in their first
statewide general election, has won by more than three percentage points,
since 1946. Milton Shapp, after losing narrowly in 1966, won by 13 percentage
points in 1970, but his 1966 campaign paved the way for that runup four
years later. Plus Governor Ray Shafer's unpopularity had erased some of
the anti-eastern sentiment against Shapp by 1970. This year, once Rendell rose over 50 percent support in the polls,
he stayed there. His support coalesced early and he won by 53 percent, a
margin that was foreshadowed in the Madonna-run Keystone poll, the most
accurate in the state's modern political times. Fisher, the state attorney general and outgunned Republican
standard-bearer, simply scooped up all the undecided voters in the closing
days of the contest. As Madonna said, the question was whether those folks
would vote. They did. Governors Tom Ridge, Bob Casey, Sr., and Dick Thornburgh would have
lusted for a 9-point win in their first governor's race. Thornburgh would
have loved it for his re-election in 1982 when he squeaked by with 100,000
votes. In terms of a policy mandate, since voters maintained the state
Senate at 29-21 and strengthened the state House to 109-94 in favor of the
Republicans, it's hard to see how Rendell won much. But the mayors of the state's two big cities, John Street of
Philadelphia and Tom Murphy of Pittsburgh, predicted that Rendell will
unleash his legendary charm and power of persuasion once he arrives in
Harrisburg Jan. 21. "Ed is in there now. And things will happen because he
is a great persuader on legislatures," Street said. There will be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking of the Fisher
campaign but, truth be told, it was a fairly good, well-financed effort
that just ran up against a masterful politician in Rendell whose campaign
performed flawlessly. Take, for example, the issue of Rendell's late release of his 2001
tax returns. Fisher rightfully suspected that Rendell was hiding something
and began harping on that point in the final debates. Rendell took two
extensions on filing his return—something he was legally entitled to do—and then delayed further until Oct. 31, five days before the
Election, to make them public. The thin excuse was that some unnamed reporter or news organization
had requested 20 years worth of tax returns so Rendell's campaign took
days to copy all 20 years worth of returns and mailed to each reporter a
photocopy paper box-sized package of the returns. Most news organizations
wanted only the 2001 return which showed that Rendell reaped a huge
$300,000 stock payout windfall from Com-net, a firm for which he sat on an
advisory board. Coupled that with the already known fact that Rendell was
collecting a $252,000 annual paycheck from Philly law firm, Ballard Spahr,
while campaigning full time, and as Philadelphia Daily News
columnist John Baer summed it up in a recent TV appearance, "Ed got a
whole lot of money for not doing a whole lot of work." Baer had labeled
the episode as a "stain" on Rendell's otherwise flawless press relations.
The paper in an editorial said that, "Sometimes Ed can be too cute,"
referring to the tax return flap. Even though they knew they had been had, reporters begrudgingly
scored the episode for Rendell because his maneuvering avoided a summer of
negative advertising about his benefiting from "corporate
greed"—a theme the Fisher campaign threw out in a
Hail Mary pass in the final days of the race. As for Fisher, 58, his future is uncertain. He will likely finish
the final two years of his term as attorney general. He could run for the
state Supreme Court or seek a federal judgeship. He could return to
Pittsburgh full-time and join a law firm. But his long-time quest to
become governor will not likely be realized.
Congressional
Update If Rendell's campaign faced
some questions about why his big win didn't have any legislative
coattails, then equal credit should be due it to Rendell for sacrificing
some of his vote to help save two endangered Democrats in Congress, Joe
Hoeffel and Tim Holden. How did it happen? Rendell had
such a sophisticated field operation in Philadelphia that they were able
to distinguish areas that were straight party voters and areas where there
would likely be congressional ticket splitters, those who would vote for
Rendell but then cross party to vote for a Republican for Congress. In central Pennsylvania,
Rendell had a different scenario. There almost all midstate Democrats
would likely vote for conservative Tim Holden over Republican George Gekas
but that many would also cross over to vote for Fisher in the governor's
race on the gun and abortion issues. Nonetheless, Rendell called for a
Get-Out-Every-Vote effort for Democrats, knowing it would lower his margin
of victory. In fact, one neutral observer
of the situation estimated that Rendell may have cost himself up to 2
percentage points on his statewide margin with his efforts to aid his
ailing Democrat ticket mates. But Rendell, who has pledged to be a party
builder, went along. Every Democratic congressman
from eastern Pennsylvania said about Joe Hoeffel, "If Ed wasn't running,
Joe would lose." Hoeffel faced a strong challenge in his new
Montgomery-Northeast Philadelphia 13th District from Republican Melissa
Brown. His margin of victory ended up being, 51 to 49 percent. To set the stage, Hoeffel was
losing ground to Brown largely on the issue of Section 8 housing in some
northeast Philadelphia neighborhoods. One outside interest group sent out
a mailing denouncing Hoeffel on his voting record on that issue, which is
volatile among some voting blocks in some sections of the city. On the
campaign stump, Brown tried to hang federal housing aid for the poor like
a millstone around Hoeffel's neck. Aware that Hoeffel could be
vulnerable on that "hot button" issue, the Rendell machine deliberately
turned off its Get-out-the-Vote effort in four wards in Northeast
Philadelphia. Those were all areas where Rendell would likely have milked
his citywide 6-1 margin but doing so would also have attracted a
potentially pivotal number of Democrats who would have voted for Rendell
and then crossed over to vote for Brown. Hoeffel also benefited from, of
all corners, conservative radio talk show host Mike Smerconish in
Philadelphia. One effort against Hoeffel included a phony endorsement by
the Reverend Al Sharpton. Smerconish denounced that tactic on two
consecutive days near the Election. Hoeffel also was aided by the
Election Day knowledge of key campaign operatives for retiring U.S.
Representative Bob Borski who, until this election, represented northeast
Philadelphia. Borski opted to retire rather than get into a primary fight
with Hoeffel as Republicans had hoped. One Hoeffel observer marveled at
how Borski's troops "targeted parts of streets, half of wards, sides of
streets, micro-turning out voters we needed." If Rendell helped Hoeffel by
not turning out voters, he helped Holden of Schuylkill County by loaning
him top staff for the last week, including Harrisburg mover and shaker
Fred Clark. Then he helped Holden by unloosing the turnout spigot, and
turning out "every Democrat we could find in that district." Since more of those Democrats
were voting for Holden than Rendell, that mildly hurt Rendell. But it
helped elect Holden, who needed just enough Dauphin County votes to make
his 72 percent victory in his native Schuylkill County hold up. It
did. In Schuylkill County, Holden
racked up 35,707 votes to 13,621 votes for Gekas. But in Dauphin, Gekas's
base, Holden got 34,656 votes, just about 10,000 less than the 44,994
tally for Gekas. Districtwide, Holden got 51 percent of the vote to 49
percent for Gekas. Holden ran a great campaign.
One that proved that you can't make up for a bad candidate. Holden sounded
like a man who delivered for his district and voters bought it. Gekas, who
has been voting to keep taxes low for two decades, was unable to explain
his record to voters, and many younger Republicans backed away from his
campaign. Gekas has been anti-government,
anti-program for 20 years. But by presenting himself as a legislative
craftsman rather than a guy on the bridge, lending his sword to the
soldiers beating back hordes of liberal laws, he overstepped. And voters
on the edge of a decision went to the guy with the better-sounding
explanation. Of course, the pros brought in
to run the election blame Gekas and Gekas blames them. Without
Pennsylvania GOP congressional campaign manager par excellence Jerry
Morgan, two visits from President Bush and the national money, Gekas would
likely have lost by 10 points. If Gekas had worked with his advisors, as
patronizing as they could sometimes be, he probably would have won. At some points, Gekas and his
wife sabotaged the national operatives brought in to help him. He actually
asked Morgan to cancel a fund-raiser and appearance by House Speaker
Dennis Hastert, because Mrs. Gekas had set up an ice cream social. Morgan
stood his ground and the speaker showed but the battle ate up days of
internal energy. Another event set up by Mrs. Gekas made the congressman
so late to a Dick Cheney event that the vice president nearly started
without Gekas. A third congressional race
where Rendell's turnout machine almost made a difference was in Dan
Wofford's amazingly close challenge to State Sen. Jim Gerlach (R-Chester).
But ultimately, in the words of GOP State Chairman and former Chester
County GOP Chairman Alan Novak, "Chester County saved Jim." The last 10 percent of the vote
counted, almost all of which was Chester's paper ballots, coming in late
as always, went more than 2-1 for Gerlach, defeating Wofford by again that
51-49 percent margin. Wofford, the son of the former U.S. senator, ran a brilliant race, Gerlach never managed to bring conservative Republican insiders and donors back into his camp, but a late visit by President Bush, a takeover by national staffers, and a well-drawn district gave Gerlach a close win. Gerlach shows what happens in a GOP-gerrymandered district, if the candidate, even late in the game, manages to get out of his own way, and the let the pros win it for him—something Gekas refused to do. State House
Update You have to hand it to House
Majority Leader John Perzel, who blends the right combination of
Philadelphia street smarts and Harrisburg political savvy, to carry the
day for his caucus in what could have been a fumble-turnover day, when
popular Philadelphian Ed Rendell was leading his ticket. Two years ago, the northeast
Philadelphia Republican had a political scare of his own when a Democratic
voting surge for Al Gore in his House district nearly cost him his own
House race. He won by just under 100 votes. This year, Perzel won by a
comfortable margin as the former Philadelphia mayor rolled up big numbers
in northeast Philadelphia, home of Perzel and two other supposedly
endangered Philly Republicans John Taylor and George Kenney. The 109-94 House margin is a
seismic change in the state Legislature. Simply put, because of population
shifts, more House seats are located in Republican dominated territory
than anytime since the 1950s. It is a structural barrier that the
Democrats will find hard to overcome throughout the next decade. Plus Perzel's leadership and
apparently superior campaign apparatus keeps the GOP in control. Perzel in
a phone interview several days before the election confided that the only
House seats he was truly worried about were those in Lower Merion,
Montgomery County. As it was, the GOP and the Democrats split those
two.
Other suburban state House
contests that most analysts called too close to call before the election
went for the GOP, even a closely watched race in Delaware County where
Democrat Sara Petrosky was threatening Republican veteran Tom Gannon.
Gannon won 52 to 48 percent. Only one Republican was
defeated at the polls and she was in one of the two Lower Merion seats
that Perzel cited. Wallis Brooks had not even served a full term. She had
been elected earlier this year in a special election to fill the seat
vacated by Democrat Connie Williams when she moved up to the Senate.
Democrat Daylin Leach, who narrowly lost the earlier contest to Brooks,
passed her by this time with the district lines redrawn. He won 53 to 47
percent. Despite the loss of Brooks, the
Republicans gained ground by knocking off long-time Democratic incumbent
Sara Steelman in Indiana County by a wide 57 to 43 percent margin. The new
representative is 25-year-old Republican Dave Reed, who used the blueprint
that was established two years ago when young Jeff Coleman defeated Tim
Pesci in nearby Armstrong County. Look for the Democrats to make a run at
this seat again in two years with a different candidate. Another plus for the GOP was
the apparent defeat of Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Democrat John
Lawless, the Legislature's best known maverick, in his Montgomery County
district. That was the closest House race in the state with a margin of
just 63 votes separating Lawless and Republican Jacqueline Crahalla, who
came out on top. Add to that what we noted
earlier, the redistricting shift meant that three seats formerly in
Philadelphia and suburban Pittsburgh that were held by Democrats
transferred to York, Lancaster and Bucks counties where Republicans won
them. Perzel told us several days
before the election that the only way the Democrats could win control
would be "for absolutely everything to go their way. That's not going to
happen. That's not how life works." He also pointed out that Republican
intensity to go to the polls increased as Election Day neared, while it
waned for the Democrats with public polls showing Ed Rendell an easy
winner. After the election, Perzel said
he and his beefed-up majority would work with the new governor to solve
the state's problems. "The people of Pennsylvania don't want to see
gridlock," he told reporters in a teleconference call November
7. State
Senate
Update As mentioned in previous
issues, all three of the hot state Senate races in this cycle were in the
Philadelphia suburbs. In all three of those races, Republicans showed that
fear (in this case of being washed away by a Rendell riptide) was a
powerful motivator. Take the example of veteran
state Senator Robert "Tommy" Tomlinson in lower Bucks County who was
seeking a third term against a spirited challenge from former U.S.
Representative Peter Kostmayer. In the final days leading up
to the election, Tomlinson sent out a flier showing himself and Rendell,
grinning, with their arms around each other. The flier included a quote
from a letter that Rendell had written Tomlinson in his official capacity
as mayor with some glowing words about Tomlinson. Some Bucks County Republican
officials gave Tomlinson grief over the mailer, saying it was embarrassing
pandering to the Democrat who was the front-runner in the governor's race
and that Tomlinson had the race in the bag and shouldn't be worried. But
Rendell carried Bucks County over Fisher by a 5-3 margin. And Tomlinson finished the
race tantalizingly close—52 to 48 percent. He and the
GOP Senate operatives in Harrisburg are not unhappy about the Rendell
flier. Without the flier and endorsements from prominent Democrats like
former Senator Craig Lewis, Tomlinson's narrow win could have turned into
a Gekas-style loss from overconfidence. Tomlinson ran a perfect
campaign and, after the results were in, no GOP insider is embarrassed
about that race anymore. They are just glad the senator was smart enough
to be more scared than they were. A few miles to the west, the
power of a united Montgomery County GOP was shown in the election of Rob
Wonderling to a state senate seat that had been held by longtime incumbent
Ed Holl. The Montgomery County Republican opted to retire after district
lines were drastically drawn in redistricting. The new senator-elect,
Republican Wonderling was a deputy in PennDOT during the Ridge
administration. He was a college roommate of Mark Holman, Ridge's chief of
staff then and now. Wonderling benefited from
being the first Montgomery County candidate in eons to get the support of
both party chairman Frank Bartle and GOP kingmaker Bob Asher, the national
Republican committeeman. Wonderling ran a very strong campaign and,
ultimately, Democratic candidate Jim Maza, a Montgomery County lawyer and
township commissioner, got overconfident. Had Maza run as scared as
Tomlinson did, the Rendell campaign would likely have done more to help
him, including fliers and radio ads. But Maza didn't ask and he lost. The
loss is something of a black eye for Senator Vince Fumo, who had taken
Maza under his wing this election cycle after successful outings in 2000
with Mike Stack against Hank Salvatore in northeast Philadelphia and Lisa
Boscola in 1998 in the Lehigh Valley. Even though Maza scored some
early press from the defection of former Reagan Cabinet member Drew Lewis
into his camp, Republicans believed they could create enough doubts about
Maza to cost him the election. They raised issues about two land deals,
one involving a golf course and a land swap on Maza's personal residence
and the other involving a Boy Scout reservation. In our third spotlighted race, to fill the Senate seat that Jim Gerlach of Chester County gave up in his run for Congress, Republican John Rafferty had an easier time dispatching Democrat Rick Jacobs than had been expected.
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