Business + Economy – The Conversation

Home ownership is a false promise in Canada

2026-02-04T14:23:00Z

As house prices have risen over the past two decades, home ownership has become increasingly difficult for young households in Canada, despite strong support through public policy.

But becoming a homeowner is still a goal for many young people who want a level of residential stability that is difficult to achieve by other means.

As urban studies researchers at Québec’s Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS), we carried out in-depth interviews with some 20 households in the Montréal area to better understand young people’s aspirations for home ownership in this difficult period.

Home ownership support schemes

The best-known scheme to encourage home ownership is probably the First Home Savings Account (FHSA), but there are other programs, including the Home Buyers’ Plan, that allows people to withdraw funds from a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) to purchase or build a home.

The federal government insures mortgages through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which increases the availability of capital for the purchase of a residential property.

Several municipalities also offer incentives for first-time buyers. For example, depending on the status of the household and the property, a new homeowner in Montréal could receive financial assistance from the city ranging from $5,000 to $15,000. Québec City, for its part, offers families who meet certain eligibility criteria interest-free, no-payment loans for 5.5 per cent of the purchase price of a new home to supplement a downpayment.

Canada does enough … for homeowners

Yet in addition to government measures to encourage first-time home buyers, there are other, more significant and often less well-known measures in place that enrich existing homeowners. These represent a major incentive to join the ranks of homeowners.

This is the case, for example, with the capital gains tax exemption for primary residences, which means that the profit made on the resale of your home is not taxable. This subsidy, worth around $15 billion per year, exceeds the annual budget of Canada’s National Housing Strategy.

A more esoteric concept is that of “imputed rent,” the estimated rental value of an owner-occupied home representing the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay to live in their own property if they were a tenant.

Unlike in the Netherlands and Switzerland, imputed rent is not taxable in Canada. This absence of taxation favours homeowners, because if the owner decided to rent out the property rather than occupy it, they would pay tax on that income, which is ultimately paid by the tenant.

Home ownership, as it is promoted in Canada, seems like a “false promise.” The policies in place mean young people and low-income households are gradually being excluded from the wealth accumulation opportunities home ownership offers. Under these conditions, housing becomes a vector of significant inequality.

Policies work for ownership, not renting

Canadian and provincial public policies disadvantage renters, making home ownership even more desirable. Current policies are moving away from the social and community housing model, where rents are determined based on a household’s ability to pay. Instead, policies promote “affordable” housing relative to market value, with rents that are below market rates but sometimes still out of reach for low-income households.

In the rental sector in Québec, market pressure is highlighting the limitations of the province’s tenant protection regime through rent increases, repossessions and renovictions.

By allowing landlords to refuse a lease transfer without serious cause, Québec’s Bill 31, passed in 2024, eliminated one of the last means tenants had to find an affordable apartment.

A variety of motivations for home ownership

The research we conducted among young households aspiring to home ownership in the Montréal area reveals a variety of motivations. While all of the households we interviewed face difficulties in becoming homeowners, buying a house is not a goal in itself for most of them.

Some want a suitable space for their young children, which they have difficulty finding in the rental market. Others see home ownership as a good investment. Many are worried because of past experiences of residential insecurity, or express fears about the possibility of renovictions, rent increases or neglectful landlords in the rental market.

Many of them are not actually opposed to long-term renting. They’re attached to life in their neighbourhood: since buying a property often requires moving to another neighbourhood with lower prices, renting often remains a desirable option for them. In addition, buying is often perceived as a financial stretch, which brings risk rather than stability.

Policies that promote home ownership

In light of this diversity of motivations, is it time to rethink public policies that promote home ownership?

Instead of promoting home ownership in the hope it will meet households’ needs, our housing policies should address those needs directly.

Taking into account the scientific literature on the subject, policy should promote residential stability or security, regardless of the type of occupancy, by implementing an approach focused on a “tenure-neutral housing policy.” Unlike current policies, this approach does not favour one type of tenure over another.

Our housing policies should, in the same way, increase funding for social and community housing and encourage the construction of flats that meet the needs of households with children, for example, by having better soundproofing and access to an inner courtyard.

Finally, they should strengthen tenant protections against excessive rent increases, renovictions and discrimination.

Reducing dependence on property ownership

The appeal of property as an investment remains undeniable. Encouraging other types of investment, such as mutual funds or stocks, would have the dual advantage of diversifying households’ investment opportunities and freeing up capital that is now being invested in property strictly because of price increases, not increased supply.

Improvements to public pension plans would mean that buying a property would not be seen as an essential step to securing a financial future.

But several factors work against overhauling housing policies. Approximately two thirds of Canadian households, and the majority of Québec households, presently own their homes. It would be politically difficult to reduce the benefits this electoral bloc enjoys in order to implement more equitable solutions.

Yet it is essential to keep this debate alive, especially to ensure housing security for households that will inevitably be excluded from home ownership.

Nick Revington received funding from the Fonds de recherche du Québec (FRQ) and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

Emory Shaw received funding from the Fonds de recherche du Québec (FRQ).

Mathiaz Lazo Mackay received funding from the Fonds de recherche du Québec (FRQ).

Tariffs are reshaping Canadian manufacturing, but not all workers are being impacted the same way

2026-02-02T19:08:28Z

American tariffs have reshaped Canada’s manufacturing sector, but labour-market impacts have not been evenly shared across workers.

The United States imposed tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, automobiles and auto parts as part of a broader protectionist push under Donald Trump’s administration. Canada’s government responded with its own counter-tariffs and trade measures, but disruptions to the industry were already underway by that point.

Manufacturing is a major source of employment for both immigrant and Canadian-born workers. It includes everything from automotive and aerospace parts to food processing and steel products, and it contributes roughly 10 per cent of Canada’s GDP.

Manufacturing is particularly vulnerable to U.S. tariffs because of its deep integration with cross-border supply chains. More than 60 per cent of Canada’s manufacturing sector has substantial trade exposure to the U.S., making it the primary channel through which tariffs affect the Canadian economy.

As firms adjusted to rising costs and trade uncertainty, immigrant and Canadian-born workers experienced different forms of employment risk at different points in 2025.

A sector under strain

A recent report shows that between January and September 2025, Canada’s manufacturing sector experienced lower production, fewer jobs and higher prices.

After momentum earlier in the year, manufacturing jobs fell sharply in the spring, with the largest consecutive job losses occurring in April, when 30,600 jobs were lost, and May, when a further 12,200 jobs disappeared. Overall, employment fell by nearly 43,000 workers between March and May.

This was followed by persistent instability rather than sustained recovery later in the year. Employment rebounded in September, with 27,800 jobs gained, and rose again in October, but these gains were partially reversed in November, when 9,300 jobs were lost.

Firms responded to the tariff shocks through delayed and incremental employment cuts, but these sector-wide adjustments were experienced differently by immigrant and Canadian-born workers.

Immigrant workers are more vulnerable

Not all workers felt the shocks from the labour market equally. Immigrant workers were disproportionately affected by tariff-related employment adjustments and are particularly vulnerable when manufacturing employment becomes unstable.

Manufacturing is a critical source of employment for immigrants, particularly in large metropolitan regions and along industrial corridors.

In March 2025, immigrants accounted for 30 per cent of employment in Canada’s manufacturing sector, compared with 70 per cent of Canadian-born workers. By December 2025, however, the immigrant share had declined to 28 per cent, while the share of Canadian-born workers increased to 72 per cent.

This disparity was compounded by a structural educational mismatch. While 80 per cent of workers in the sector don’t have a university degree, immigrant workers were more than twice as likely as Canadian-born workers to be university educated.

Nevertheless, these higher education levels often do not translate into higher-paid roles within manufacturing.

Lower wages amplify employment risk

Wage data shows that many immigrant manufacturing workers are concentrated in lower-paid or more labour-intensive jobs that are particularly vulnerable during an economic downturn.

Throughout 2025, immigrant workers earned roughly $2.50 to $3 less per hour than Canadian-born workers. This gap did not narrow even when wages recovered later in the year.

Average hourly wages for all workers increased from $34.43 in March to $35.29 in December. Yet the wage gap for immigrant workers widened slightly — from $2.52 to $2.56.

Lower pay combined with higher educational attainment points to persistent credential under-utilization, meaning workers possess skills or qualifications that are not fully used or rewarded in their jobs. This under-utilization increases immigrant workers’ exposure to employment instability when trade disruptions occur.

How job loss patterns shifted

Job loss also unfolded differently over time. In the first half of 2025, unemployed former workers who were immigrants were more likely to report layoffs — temporary or permanent — as the cause of their joblessness.

That share remained consistently high — at 66 per cent in June — before gradually declining later in the year. By December, 51 per cent of immigrant former workers reported job loss as the reason for unemployment.

In contrast, job loss became increasingly concentrated among Canadian-born workers in the second half of the year. In March, only 53 per cent reported job loss as the reason for unemployment. This share rose steadily throughout the rest of the year, reaching 71 per cent by December.

These trends indicate that firms initially relied more heavily on reductions in immigrant labour, and later expanded layoffs to include Canadian-born workers as tariff pressures persisted.

Differential adjustment strategies

U.S. tariffs reshaped Canadian manufacturing not through a single employment shock, but through different labour-adjustment strategies over time.

Highly educated immigrant workers, many of whom were concentrated in lower-paid roles, were more exposed to early layoffs, wage penalties and unstable employment. As tariff pressures deepened, job loss became more concentrated among Canadian-born workers as longer-term restructuring took place.

These patterns matter for policy. If manufacturing is to remain a viable pillar of the Canadian economy in an era of trade disruption, policy responses must recognize these unequal adjustment patterns and address the underlying vulnerabilities that leave some workers more exposed than others.

This could include targeted income supports and rapid-response training for displaced workers, and tailored settlement and employment services for immigrant workers who, as a group, are concentrated in lower-wage and more unstable jobs.

In addition, better co-ordination between trade, industrial, and immigration policies could help ensure that adjustment costs are not disproportionately borne by already vulnerable workers.

Marshia Akbar receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

Devaanshi Khanzode does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Filing taxes for someone else? Here’s how to do it safely

2026-01-29T19:27:36Z

Filing taxes every year is an important and necessary task in Canada. But for many, tax preparation and filing can be overwhelming. One reason is that tax forms can sometimes be hard to interpret, especially because most people only deal with them once a year.

Another factor is the shift to digital: tax forms are often delivered electronically; tax software has become the preferred method for tax preparation and filing; and the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) prefers to send all tax information electronically through the CRA MyAccount.

With this digital system, it’s typically necessary to access tax forms and previous Notices of Assessment by logging in to your CRA MyAccount. This can be a barrier for those with less experience using computers and online accounts, such as some older adults.

Many people act as informal tax helpers by filing taxes for older parents, relatives or friends. In fact, half of Canadians filing taxes have someone else do their taxes for them. Of those, one in five reports getting help from a friend or family member acting as an informal tax helper.

This means about 10 per cent of tax filers in Canada rely on family or friends to file their taxes. The CRA has a Represent a Client program that allows informal tax helpers to log in to the CRA MyAccount of the person they are helping to access relevant tax forms. However, a study that I recently conducted with colleauges shows that this mechanism is under-utilized.

How informal tax helpers access CRA accounts

Getting help with taxes can take many forms: hiring an accountant, visiting a tax preparation company, getting help from a volunteer through the Canadian Volunteer Income Tax Program (CVITP) or delegating to an informal tax helper.

Tax accountants, tax preparers and CVITP volunteers have business IDs or Group IDs for accessing CRA MyAccounts of the clients they assist. Similarly, informal tax helpers can sign up with CRA’s Represent a Client program to get RepIDs, which are ID numbers provided by the CRA to people whose identity is verified by having their own CRA MyAccount.

As an example, having a RepID allows me to access my daughter’s CRA MyAccount to get her Notices of Assessments, download tax forms and use NetFile to file her taxes. I could ask my daughter to log in and download those items for me, but it is faster for me to do it, as I know what forms I’m looking for and where to find them.

The Canada Revenue Agency’s ‘Represent a Client’ landing page. (Canada Revenue Agency)

Having a RepID does not give access to everyone’s tax records. A link needs to be established between the helper’s RepID and the CRA MyAccount of the person they are assisting. This can be done by uploading a signed form from the taxpayer or by sending an authorization request through the CRA system, which the taxpayer must approve.

The risks of sharing login credentials

In our study, we investigated CRA delegation mechanisms. We conducted a semi-structured interview study with 19 participants, including older adults, formal tax volunteers and informal tax helpers, to understand the challenges and experiences of tax delegation.

We found that only one informal tax helper used a RepID. Most either did everything using paper forms provided by the person they are helping, or they accessed that person’s CRA MyAccount using that individual’s credentials to log in.

In some cases, informal tax helpers may actually be setting up the CRA MyAccounts for the people they are helping, which means they know the login credentials. This violates the terms of service of the CRA MyAccount — you are not supposed to share your password with anyone.

While informal tax helpers are providing a valuable and helpful service to their friends and families, using a person’s credentials to access their CRA MyAccounts is problematic.

When an informal tax helper knows someone else’s CRA login credentials, they could log in as that user, change the mailing address and banking deposit details, and then make bogus tax and benefit claims. In this case, the CRA has no way to tell that it is someone else logging in and taking actions on behalf of the taxpayer associated with the account.

However, if an informal tax helper uses a RepID to access someone’s CRA MyAccount, the CRA knows exactly who is doing what. They don’t allow informal tax helpers to change the mailing address or bank deposit information, which goes a long way to preventing tax fraud.

Make tax help safer with a CRA RepID

If someone is helping you file your taxes, ask them to get a CRA RepID. It’s a quick process for them, and then they can access tax forms in your CRA MyAccount safely. This way, the CRA will know when it is them signing in to your account versus you, and your helper will only be able to access the appropriate functions.

The Canada Revenue Agency’s Represent a Client web page. Two levels of access are available, and neither allows the editing of critical details like bank deposit information or client address. An expiry date can also be set so that access does not have to be granted indefinitely. (Canada Revenue Agency)

Most informal tax helpers are honest, helpful people and they shouldn’t have to impersonate you to get your taxes done. Using the CRA’s Represent a Client system provides legitimacy to informal tax helpers and safety for those getting assistance.

With the tax deadline of April 30, 2026 approaching, if you plan to have someone assist you with tax filing, it’s a good time to check with them to make sure they use a RepID to access your CRA MyAccount. Doing this early can help avoid last-minute stress, ensure your tax return is filed accurately and give you confidence that your information is secure.

Celine Latulipe receives funding from NSERC.

Biomass could play a key role in Canada’s transition to a carbon-neutral economy

2026-01-27T14:46:15Z

Record forest fires, under-utilized agricultural residues like straw and husks and struggling sawmills have left Canada with an abundance of undervalued biomass. If carefully and strategically managed, this resource could become a powerful ally in the fight against climate change.

Canada’s biomass sectors are facing significant uncertainty because of political and natural disruptions. The forestry sector was hit last year by new American tariffs announced by the Donald Trump administration on Canadian forest products, bringing the total duties imposed on Canadian lumber to 45 per cent.

The agricultural and agri-food sector is also particularly vulnerable, since it exports more than 70 per cent of its main crops.

In addition to facing these political uncertainties, biomass sectors are increasingly experiencing the effects of climate disasters. In 2025, fires had burned 8.3 million hectares of Canadian forests by Sept. 30, making it Canada’s second-worst wildfire season on record. With climate change, extreme weather events like wildfires and droughts are likely to become more frequent and intense.

Change is accelerating and risks are mounting. For industries and communities that rely on biomass, this is the moment to define a long-term role in the climate transition.

Biomass resources

Canada needs to move towards a carbon-neutral economy, and the biomass sectors have a key role to play in this transition.

The availability of diverse biomass resources in Canada’s forests and agricultural lands, combined with new technologies to convert them into bioproducts and bioenergy, makes biomass a potential solution for reducing carbon emissions in several sectors, including industry, construction and all modes of transport (road, marine, rail and air).

Biomass can be part of climate change mitigation strategies. Used properly, it can replace fossil fuels and products, and help store carbon in different ways: in sustainable materials made from wood or agricultural residues, in the form of biochar that traps carbon in the soil or through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which prevents carbon released during energy production from entering the atmosphere.

Several recent projects have demonstrated that interest in biomass feedstocks is high in many industries. In 2025, Canada’s first industrial-scale biochar plant was inaugurated in Québec, while the Strathcona refinery in Alberta will become Canada’s largest facility for renewable diesel.

The potential role of biomass becomes clear in the pathways now being modelled to achieve Canada’s climate goals. These analyses show that if a significant portion of available biomass were used differently, it would be possible to sequester up to 94 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year through BECCS and biochar.

These results underscore the need for Canada to carefully plan new project developments and judiciously allocate biomass between its traditional and emerging uses.

Best uses for biomass

As we explain in a recent study, several factors influence the potential of biomass to reduce emissions, including the type of ecosystem where it’s harvested, the efficiency of its conversion, the fuels used and the products it replaces in the sectors concerned.

In other words, the climate benefits of biomass are not automatic: they depend on the choices that are made at each stage of the value chain. For example, if the processing or transport of resources requires a lot of fossil energy, or if the final product displaces a low-emission alternative, the climate benefit may be marginal or even negative.

Using biomass effectively requires understanding what resources will be available under climate change and their true potential to cut emissions. That potential depends not only on technological efficiency, but also on the cultural, environmental and economic realities of communities.

Still no long-term vision

Decision-makers must avoid working in isolation and take into account the collateral effects of resource allocation. Practices in biomass sectors, whether in forestry or agriculture, evolve slowly. Forests, in particular, follow long growth and harvesting cycles, so the choices made today will influence emissions for decades to come.

Yet, despite the importance of its resources, Canada has no strategy or vision for the role biomass will play in the transition to carbon neutrality by 2050.

Canada has developed several bioeconomy frameworks, including the Renewed Forest Bioeconomy Framework (2022) and the Canadian Bioeconomy Strategy (2019). However, there is still no comprehensive strategy that defines the role biomass will play in achieving a carbon-neutral future, either in energy-related or non-energy-related sectors.

Canada can draw inspiration from its own Canadian Hydrogen Strategy to develop a similar strategy for biomass, based on integrated modelling of its potential in different sectors of the Canadian economy. There is an urgent need to adopt a realistic approach based on analyses at multiple scales — from regional to national — rather than on isolated sectoral targets.

Many players in the sector are stressing the urgent need to adopt a clear national strategy for the bioeconomy in order to provide more predictability to biomass industries in Canada. In an article in Canadian Biomass Magazine, Jeff Passmore (founder and president of Scaling Up) says he’s been waiting for Canada to develop a concrete national strategy for the bioeconomy.

Another article in Bioenterprise in 2023 argued that “one of the key areas needed to build the future of biomass in Canada is a solid, long-term national bioeconomy strategy, supported by industry and governments.”

Finally, a call to action from Bioindustrial Innovation Canada recommends revising the national bioeconomy strategy by setting measurable targets for interdepartmental and intersectoral co-ordination, with a clear road map for collaboration between industry and the public sector.

Biomass cannot be managed blindly. Its impacts vary depending on the region and uses. For future projects to truly contribute to Canada’s climate goals, a coherent national vision is needed now.

In connection with the work reported in this article, Normand Mousseau received funding from Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Trottier Family Foundation (through its support for the activities of the Institut d'Énergie Trottier) and the Transition Accelerator, a non-profit organization with the mandate to support energy transition in various economic sectors. The organizations that funded this text or the reports on which it is based were not given any right to review the analyses and conclusions. The authors are solely responsible for these.

The Institut de l'Énergie Trottier (IET) at Polytechnique Montréal was created thanks to a generous donation from the Trottier Family Foundation. Its mission covers research, training and the dissemination of information related to the challenges of decarbonizing energy systems. To support the research mandate of the Carbon Neutrality Advisory Group, the IET's biomass project was carried out with financial support from the Government of Canada. Funding was provided by the Climate Action and Awareness Fund of the Environmental Damages Fund, administered by Environment and Climate Change Canada. The organizations that funded this report were not given any say in the analyses and conclusions. The authors are solely responsible for these. Roberta Dagher works at the IEG in support of the Transition Accelerator. Roberta Dagher does not work for, advise, own shares in, or receive funding from any organization that could benefit from this article.

Canada’s new Grocery Code of Conduct is here, but don’t expect any instant price drops

2026-01-26T17:30:54Z

Canada’s Grocery Code of Conduct came into full effect as of Jan. 1, 2026. Governed by an independent organization, the code sets out guidelines for dealings between retailers and suppliers.

It’s intended to provide transparency and predictability in the relationship between food retailers and their suppliers. All five of Canada’s largest grocers — Empire, Loblaw, Metro, Walmart Canada and Costco Canada — have registered with the code.

The code sets out specific objectives: to contribute to a “thriving and competitive grocery industry,” promote trust between grocery value chain stakeholders, allow for informed business decisions and provide an effective and fair dispute settlement mechanism.

That dispute resolution mechanism, administered by the Office of the Grocery Sector Code of Conduct (OGSCC), is intended as a last resort. The possibility of mediation may encourage parties to resolve disagreements informally before they escalate to formal adjudication.

In addition, the OGSCC will publish an annual report highlighting key trends, challenges, recommendations for code improvements and anonymized case studies of disputes, without naming specific companies.

Was the code ever about food prices?

Public discussion of the code was often conflated with a desire to reduce food prices. While food price regulation is not part of the code, it has been raised in wider discussions about food price inflation.

Statistics Canada data shows that food prices continued to rise across the country in 2025. Prices increased by 3.4 per cent across Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories between May 2024 and May 2025.

Concerns about food price inflation have been longstanding. In 2023, the federal Standing Committee on Agriculture held a meeting to investigate the issue. Members questioned Walmart Canada CEO Gonzalo Gebara and Galen Weston, then president and CEO of Loblaws (and now chair of the board).

Liberal MP Heath MacDonal asked Gebara:

“What do you say to us when we’re seeing the hesitation of Walmart to sign on to the grocery code of conduct? How do we relay that message back to our constituents, who, over the past couple of years, due to all the items and many of the issues you talked about, have been facing a lot of challenges, including the price of groceries?”

While this question does not explicitly tie the code to food prices, many interpreted this, and other statements, as suggesting the code might lower food prices.

Could the code raise prices?

Some industry leaders, however, have suggested the code could increase prices. For example, Weston says he was hesitant to participate in the code due to fears that prices would go up.

The mechanism of potential price inflation is relatively straightforward. The code discourages certain charges and states payment schedules should be negotiated. If grocers lose some benefits due to the limitations of the code, it will cost them money. In such a scenario, it is difficult to imagine that grocers would forgo money from consumers by lowering prices.

Walmart and Loblaws, who were originally resistant, eventually accepted the code after further negotiations. Loblaws’ new president, Per Bank, said the company was content with the revised code and no longer felt it would raise prices. It is worth noting, however, no one has said the code will reduce prices.

Some observers have suggested the code could lower food prices over the longer term. But they were commenting about the benefits of lower charges to suppliers and the potential for investment and innovation in the Canadian food processing sector. These indeed may be long-term benefits, but they’re not written into the code and would take time to materialize.

Are there any benefits to consumers?

There will likely to be some indirect consumer benefits. A more predictable and transparent relationship between retailers and their suppliers could increase choice for consumers by reducing the barriers to new product introduction.

Price stability and predictability make life easier on suppliers and could help sustain Canadian food processors. A loss of food processing capacity in Canada would lead to increased prices.

The code would also help smaller retailers with less bargaining power. By limiting the concessions large grocers can extract from suppliers, it narrows the gap between big and small chains and makes smaller grocers more viable. This is especially important in under-served neighbourhoods where limited retail options restrict consumer choice.

What actually drives food prices?

Food price inflation is primarily driven by supply-side factors and, to a lesser extent, demand. Between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, food prices rose by four per cent — faster than the rate of general inflation. Much of that increase was driven by sharp price rises in beef (16.8 per cent), coffee (30.8 per cent), and sugar and confectionery (12.5 per cent).

Beef and coffee prices have been affected by the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Beef cow herds are at their lowest point in almost 40 years, due in part to drought in Western Canada and the midwestern United States. High beef prices have also pushed consumers toward other proteins, such as pork and chicken, which saw smaller price increases. Turkey prices remain relatively flat, providing an option for those feeling protein price pressure.

Coffee prices tell a similar story. Extreme weather and disease pressures have reduced yields in producing regions and led to increased prices.

Sugar and confectionery prices increased largely due to tariffs. The U.S. already had protection for its sugar industry, but introduced significant new tariffs on Brazil, Argentina and Columbia, raising organic sugar prices and pulling conventional sugar prices up with them.

Canada responded with reciprocal tariffs, increasing prices here. While some of the tariffs have been reduced, there remains considerable uncertainty. Notably, despite the 12.5 per cent annual increase in prices, prices for sugar and confectionery fell by 4.1 per cent in December 2025.

What comes next?

Canada has experienced significant food price inflation, but the drivers are largely external to and outside the scope of the Grocery Code of Conduct.

While the code may enhance transparency, fairness and competition in the grocery sector, it is not a tool for controlling or lowering grocery prices directly.

But there is room for optimism about grocery costs. The rate of food price increases will slow and we might see some price reductions. Beef cow herds are expected to recover over time, which should ease prices. Beef prices went down marginally in December by 0.2 per cent. Weather remains unpredictable, but in the absence of new extreme events, supply issues should improve and prices should ease for those commodities.

These changes, however, will not be due to the Grocery Code of Conduct, though they will be welcome nonetheless.

Michael von Massow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Fear at work is a hidden safety risk — and it helps explain why hazards go unreported

2026-01-21T17:42:14Z

Psychological safety — the belief that it is safe to speak up with concerns, questions or mistakes — is widely recognized as essential for organizational learning, innovation and workplace safety.

Yet its absence — interpersonal fear — is rarely examined in investigations of serious workplace incidents. My new research on workplace fatalities, conducted with several co-researchers, suggests this missing factor may help explain why hazards so often go unidentified or unreported.

We surveyed more than 4,600 workers and analyzed thousands of incident reports across five mine sites and over 100 mining and contractor companies. We asked workers: “Why aren’t hazards identified or reported?”

We found that interpersonal fear — the perception that speaking up or challenging the status quo will lead to humiliation or punishment — was one of the strongest predictors of silence. Workers who were more likely to be fearful were also more likely to withhold information.

A pattern we’ve seen before

Our recent findings echo earlier research I conducted following a fatal mining accident near Fort McMurray, Alta., in 2017, when a Suncor employee fell through ground softened by a leaking tailings pipeline and was unable to free himself.

I led a team analyzing geohazards associated with working around oilsands tailings ponds. During a safety workshop that concluded the two-year investigation, my co-researchers and I asked the attendees to answer the same question — “Why are hazards not identified or reported?”

We expected technical responses, but instead, they focused overwhelmingly on human and organizational factors: lack of training, fear, inappropriate risk tolerances, external pressures, cultural inaction and complacency.

The predominance of fear shocked us. Workers described being more afraid of the social consequences of reporting hazards than of the hazards themselves. As a result, they were putting their own lives at risk.

Our newer, larger study confirms this pattern at scale. Using machine-learning techniques, we were better able to identify where fear was most likely to flourish, its organizational causes and consequences and how it undermines companies.

We found management dismissiveness, a lack of managerial action or follow-up and a lack of training were more likely to cause fear — especially among contractors — and suppress hazard identification and reporting.

Fear isn’t limited to the frontline

Employees lower in company hierarchies tend to experience less psychological safety. But senior leaders are not immune to it either. They can encounter situations where raising concerns feels risky, particularly in executive settings where disagreement can be interpreted as “too political,” disloyal or a sign of weakness.

Leadership scholar Amy Edmondson’s research helps explain this dynamic. Her psychological safety matrix shows that fear flourishes when high performance standards are combined with low psychological safety.

In teams with high levels of psychological safety and highly challenging tasks and standards, she found employees are curious and engaged problem-solvers. However, when the same high standards exist without psychological safety (where people believe that they might be punished or humiliated for speaking up), anxiety prevails.

The goal is to have your team experience the first scenario. Because psychological safety operates at the team level, organizations can have multiple teams doing similar high-risk work with dramatically different outcomes, depending on whether people feel safe enough to speak up.

Creating safer systems starts with leadership

Since interpersonal fear is shaped by perception, it doesn’t matter whether leaders believe they are approachable; what matters is whether their teams think they are. If employees are spending more time worrying about managing impressions than operations, hazards go unreported and people are unknowingly put at risk.

Creating safer workplaces requires cultures where speaking up is not punished, dismissed or discouraged. Leaders can start by asking themselves questions: who is least likely to challenge me at work? What information might I not be hearing as a result?

Often, the employees with the most job security, such as union reps or those nearing retirement, are the most honest sources of insight. Listening to these voices is often a good place to start.

Research shows that organizations can improve psychological safety through practical leadership changes. Supervisors who listen, seek feedback, share reasoning behind decisions and are team-oriented instead of self-serving are more likely to create and maintain psychological safety.

Leaders should also pay attention to variations across teams. Useful questions to ask include:

Which teams are feeling fearful?
Which teams are feeling curious and engaged?
How can you create more high-performance teams?

Understanding why some teams feel safer than others can reveal opportunities for improvement.

For leaders, the greatest worry should be whether your employees are afraid to speak up. Be suspicious of “good news only” green dashboards, obsequious agreement or stony silences. Do not punish messengers — rather, embrace their candour as a gift and a sign that your organization is preventing harm.

Lianne M Lefsrud receives funding from the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Alberta Justice, WorkSafeBC, Mitacs, Alberta Innovates, and the Lynch School of Engineering Safety and Risk Management endowed funds.

Lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles could boost adoption and diversify Canada’s trade

2026-01-20T17:26:55Z

Canada has announced an agreement to reduce its 100 per cent tariff on electric vehicle (EV) imports from China to 6.1 per cent. The tariffs will be replaced by an annual import quota of 49,000 EVs in 2026, rising gradually to 70,000 by 2030.

This phased opening is designed to help Canada diversify its supply chain and accelerate EV adoption without relying on subsidies. In return, China will lower tariffs on Canadian canola to 15 per cent by March and remove tariffs on a few other Canadian goods.

The rollback of Canada’s EV tariff wall marks a significant shift in the Canadian trade relationship with China. It also represents a notable de-escalation of trade tensions during a period of intense economic uncertainty, driven largely by protectionist American policy.

It will not, however, reshape Canada’s auto market overnight.

A modest opening with outsized effects

The initial 2026 quota amounts to about 2.5 per cent of total new vehicle sales in Canada, which was just below two million vehicles in 2025. In global terms, it’s also a modest amount, equivalent to only 2.2 per cent of BYD’s estimated 2025 EV sales (2.26 million vehicles) and three per cent of Tesla’s estimated 2025 EV sales (1.65 million vehicles).

For Canada’s struggling EV market, however, the policy change could provide a meaningful boost. The end of the federal Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles program in 2025 increased EV prices by roughly eight to 12 per cent. Higher upfront costs slowed demand, and EVs now account for about nine per cent of new vehicle sales, down from 15 per cent in 2024.

By opening the market to innovative EVs from China, the new policy should expand access to lower-cost models and help revive demand. China’s EV market includes more than 100 EV brands, including BYD, which recently overtook Tesla as the world’s largest EV maker.

The new policy also features other major brands like Geely, SAIC Group, Nio and XPeng, with several models priced within at about $30,000. Increased price competition could narrow the affordability gap that has slowed adoption since incentives were withdrawn.

Pivoting to China for diversification

The quota system likely reflects concern within Ottawa that unrestricted access for Chinese EVs could flood the Canadian market and disrupt local manufacturing. A phased opening gives automakers time to adjust and helps consumers become familiar with new Chinese brands.

It may also encourage foreign manufacturers to expand local assembly or partnerships to cater to growing EV demand. The government expects the deal to catalyze Chinese joint-venture investment that will deepen and diversify Canada’s EV supply chain.

The agreement also signals an effort to reduce Canada’s dependence on the United States, which is the destination for about 92 per cent of Canada’s auto and auto parts exports. This shift, however, starts from a very low base.

While China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, merchandise exports to China were only $29.9 billion in 2024, or about 7.3 per cent of exports to the U.S.

For that reason, the seemingly ambitious target of increasing merchandise exports to China by 50 per cent by 2030 will not materially change Canada’s reliance on the U.S.

It is better understood as one element of a broader strategy to reduce exposure to an increasingly inward-looking and unpredictable partner.

The deal could also complicate Canada’s position ahead of future renegotiations of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement. Prime Minister Mark Carney can reasonably argue that import volumes are small relative to total auto sales in Canada and the U.S. At the same time, deeper engagement with China signals alternatives and may modestly strengthen Canada’s leverage.

More EV adoption at lower government cost

The trade opening could support EV adoption at lower fiscal cost. The Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles program, which stalled after its funding was exhausted, cost the government $2.6 billion and supported approximately 546,000 EV purchases.

When rebates lapsed, annual EV sales declined by more than one-quarter, falling from 264,000 in 2024 to 191,000 in 2025.

As Canada contends with a growing fiscal deficit, expanding consumer choice through trade may prove more durable than relying on subsidies.

It not only reduces the need for public spending but also reduces the future cost of adoption by putting pressure on incumbents such as Tesla and GM to cut prices to compete with new entrants like BYD.

A wider set of affordable models should lift demand and, as the customer base expands, strengthen the case for faster charging network expansion. This could help Canada return to its mandate of 50 per cent EV sales by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2035, which was recently paused.

Why the quota needs a hard end date

Tariffs and quotas are often framed as temporary protections that give domestic producers breathing room amid competitive pressure. In practice, they can be difficult to unwind because beneficiaries lobby to preserve them.

Canada’s rollback of its tariff wall on Chinese EVs is unusual, precipitated by trade tensions with the U.S. and punishing reciprocal tariffs by China on its canola imports.

Absent similar pressure, the newly introduced quotas could outlive the intended five-year window. Automakers and their political allies will defend them, just as they defended the blanket EV tariffs that denied Canadians of access to affordable EVs.

Canada should explicitly commit to eliminating the quota by 2030. Moving to an open market regime will benefits consumers, strengthens competitiveness and supports environmental goals.

Addisu Lashitew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Heated Rivalry: How investment in Canadian content can pay off at home and abroad

2026-01-20T15:03:09Z

Hudson Williams and Connor Storrie in an Episode 6 ('The Cottage') scene of 'Heated Rivalry.' (Bell Media)

In late December 2025, it seemed like everyone went to “the cottage.” This is a reference to the steamy Crave megahit Heated Rivalry. Even The Guggenheim Museum of New York and Ottawa Tourism has jumped on the Heated Rivalry bandwagon.

Heated Rivalry has launched the careers of Texas native Connor Storrie and Hudson Williams, from British Columbia. The actors play hockey rivals-turned-lovers Ilya Rozanov and Shane Hollander.

The Heated Rivalry obsession is widespread, having topped Crave’s No. 1 most-watched spot for weeks and taken global audiences, TV networks and online algorithms by storm.

Storrie and Williams have appeared at the Golden Globes, on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon and on Late Night with Seth Meyers.

In an era where data-crunching increasingly offers predictions about market-driven success, all this might make viewers wonder if Heated Rivalry has cracked the algorithmic code.

Crave trailer for ‘Heated Rivalry.’

Risk-taking gone right

Was the show a bet on #booktok fans? Heated Rivalry is based on a book that is part of the popular Game Changers series by Canadian author Rachel Reid.

However, as scholars who have examined contemporary TV production, we agree with acting coach Anna Lamadrid that Heated Rivalry would never have been made if left solely to algorithmic analysis.

The standard algorithm-driven approach designed to entice the widest possible audience — typical of U.S. streaming giants like Netflix — would argue the series had limited appeal, no star power and a niche audience.

More likely, as creator Jacob Tierney told Myles McNutt, a professor of media studies, Crave trusted him and his vision. Tierney previously made the popular and award-winning shows Shoresy and Letterkenny.

As Tierney told McNutt, Heated Rivalry was greenlit by Crave but needed additional financing. Tierney approached several studios, but received notes “that would fundamentally change the story, or fundamentally change the tone.”

In a recent CBS interview with Montréal-born actor François Arnaud, who plays older gay hockey player Scott Hunter, Arnaud said he “didn’t think the show could have been made in the U.S.” He said Heated Rivalry was “at a big streamer before” that wanted changes, including “no kissing until Episode 5.”

François Arnaud and Hudson Williams in an Episode 1 scene from ‘Heated Rivalry.’ (Bell Media)

Heated Rivalry is an example of risk-taking gone right at a time when there are calls to cancel international streamers in favour of investing in homegrown film and TV. Its success is also the result of a confluence of industry-level transformations in Canadian production and streaming.

A confluence of conditions

In the 1950s, there were only a few Canadian broadcasters. Content was made by “in-house” crews. Production and distribution companies were operated by government-funded agencies, including the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and the National Film Board of Canada.

Creative content consisted mostly of news and filmed theatre or dance productions. In the 1960s, pay TV emerged and appetite built for racier variety TV, game shows and talk shows.

By the 1970s, the baby boomer bubble — combined with arts funding and more affordable video and editing equipment — changed everything. Low-cost content for niche audiences proliferated on cable TV.

The Canadian media system moved toward independent production. Production companies were separated from broadcasters, owned and run by different people. But the ability to green-light Canadian-scripted TV shows still depended on acquiring distribution licences from a few major broadcasters.

This triggered funding from the Canada Media Fund and provincial or territorial tax credits, which still finance most productions. To spread financial risk, many dramas were co-productions between Canada and other countries.

By 2005, in the wake of broadband and the growth of more audacious content produced for smaller audiences, Canadian broadcasters shifted to reality (“unscripted”) TV as a relatively inexpensive genre that could draw big audiences.

Still, breakthrough dramatic programs — like Corner Gas (2004-09), Little Mosque on the Prairie (2007-12), Kim’s Convenience (2016-21) and Schitt’s Creek (2015-20) — dealt with the complexity and specificity of Canadian society.

Steamy streaming

Today, several key policy changes and corporate consolidations have brought smaller, riskier and explicitly Canadian projects to the screen.

The Online Streaming Act and the recently updated definition of Canadian content have targeted streaming services like Netflix and Crave to incentivize the production and discoverability of Canadian shows.

Shifts in policy have supported Canadian content, including funding for underrepresented voices. Heated Rivalry’s development ran parallel to recent policy and industry shifts.

Bell Media, the largest Canadian media company, owns CTV and Crave. In March 2025, it acquired a majority stake of United Kingdom-based global distributor Sphere Abacus. This played a key role in Heated Rivalry’s development.

The Canada Media Fund contributed $3.1 million to Heated Rivalry. Culture Minister Marc Miller has also noted in addition to the federal funding, the series received tax credits. Eligible Canadian film or video productions can receive a refundable tax credit.

Bell Media committed to the show budget in March 2025, including a contribution from recently acquired Sphere Abacus.

Sean Cohan, Bell Media CEO, has said the company saw Heated Rivalry as a show that could move the conglomerate “from being seen as a legacy broadcaster to a digital-media content player with global impact.”

The series was shot in just over a month at a budget of less than CDN$5 million per episode and before long, stars Williams and Storrie were whisked away to the Golden Globes.

What’s next for Canadian productions?

Crave is already promoting Slo Pitch starring Schitt’s Creek actor Emily Hampshire and featuring Heated Rivalry’s Nadine Bhaba.

Set to premiere in 2026, this 10-episode mockumentary series follows a queer, underdog softball team. While the show is also about gay sports, it’s in a league all its own — promising “beer, lesbians and baseball.”

Is Crave a beacon of hope for Canadian content? Maybe Canadian producers and distributors can leverage the Heated Rivalry effect to galvanize Canadian and international audiences onto more Canadian-produced intellectual property (IP).

The issue of IP is now a key sticking point in multiple unresolved lawsuits by Netflix, Amazon and Spotify that have been brought to the federal government.

The looming Warner Bros Discovery (Warner Bros, HBO) acquisition by Netflix will directly impact Crave. As HBO Max’s sole Canadian distributor, there’s some worry about what could happen to this lucrative content for the Canadian streamer should Netflix gobble up all of the IP — a major issue for distribution deals and Canadian creatives.

Not to stretch the hockey metaphor too tight, but policy sets the rules of the game. Corporate and government funding bring the players to the rink. Producers and writers aspire to be winning coaches. Audiences want to be on the edge of their seats.

They also want more choices: exploring riskier storylines, meeting new talent and seeing their own lives — and Canadian content — on screen. With Heated Rivalry’s success, they seem to have it all this season.

Daphne Rena Idiz receives funding from the Creative Labour and Critical Futures (CLCF) project.

Claudia Sicondolfo receives funding from SSHRC for Archives in Action and Platforming Leisure and is a Board Member for the Toronto Queer Film Festival.

MaryElizabeth Luka receives funding from University of Toronto Cluster of Scholarly Prominence program (Creative Labour Critical Futures) as well as from periodic competitive, peer-adjudicated Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council funding programs for research in their areas of expertise.

What Canada can learn from Mexico’s approach to U.S. trade

2026-01-19T19:08:46Z

When United States President Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico in early 2025, the two countries reacted very differently. Canada led with an “elbows up” campaign involving counter-tariffs and boycotts of American alcohol.

Mexico, by contrast, struck a more conciliatory tone and cautiously started to align its trade policy with the U.S. As Canada prepares for a turbulent 2026, Mexico’s experience offers valuable lessons.

Both Mexico and Canada depend heavily on trade with the U.S: both send three-quarters of their exports there. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) underpins tariff-free access to the U.S. for most North American goods. But the deal is in jeopardy.

The U.S. alleges Mexico and Canada are being used as trans-shipment hubs for Chinese goods. These tensions will come to a head in July 2026 when CUSMA is up for review.

Mexico’s calibrated response

To pre-empt American concerns, Mexico has begun cautiously aligning with U.S. trade policy. As early as 2023, it pledged to work with the U.S. on foreign investment screening to address security issues around rising Chinese investment.

In late December 2025, Mexico followed up by raising tariffs on 1,400 Chinese items to between 35 to 50 per cent, including in sectors like electric vehicles and steel.

It would be wrong to dismiss these measures as capitulations to American demands. Instead, Mexico has cleverly navigated trade tensions with the U.S. while protecting its own values and interests. Mexico’s latest duty increases aim to protect domestic industries and counteract trade imbalances with China.

By raising duties only in select sectors, Mexico avoided putting duties on everyday consumer goods, which have driven up prices in the U.S. In addition, while the U.S. is imposing tariffs on friends and foes alike, the Mexican tariffs explicitly exempt countries with which it has free-trade agreements, supporting its broader trade diversification agenda.

Unlike the U.S. tariffs, which violate international trade law, Mexico’s measures are also fully consistent with its international obligations. As a developing country, Mexico committed to higher tariff ceilings at the World Trade Organization (WTO) than the U.S. This allows it to unilaterally raise tariffs up to the maximum levels permitted under international trade law.

Although China has criticized the move, Mexico’s non-discriminatory application of tariffs to all non-FTA partners avoids singling out any specific country and is legal.

Alignment without subordination

Mexico’s strategy offers a template for aligning with the U.S. without sacrificing sovereignty or respect for the rule of law. It is a far cry from a full North American customs union that some hope to achieve as part of the upcoming CUSMA review, which would unduly tie Mexican and Canadian trade policy to the whims of Washington, D.C.

It also demonstrates Mexico’s ability to walk the tight rope of seeking common ground with the U.S. while diversifying its trade and protecting its industry.

It is also superior to alternative ways of aligning with the U.S. Deals struck by the U.S. with Malaysia and Cambodia committed these countries to aligning with American import restrictions and export controls whenever it is in the U.S. national interest, effectively forcing them to forgo an autonomous trade policy altogether.

Canada also learned its lesson when it copied an illegal 100 per cent U.S. tariff on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, only to face both U.S. auto tariffs and Chinese retaliation the following year.

Smartly, Ottawa has now partially reversed course by agreeing to allow 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the Canadian market at a tariff rate of 6.1 per cent. In return, China is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian canola to 15 per cent by March.

What Canada should do differently

In 2026, Canada will feel growing pressure to align with some U.S. trade-restrictive measures and, like Mexico, should do so smartly. Unlike Mexico, Canada has lower tariff bindings and cannot raise import duties without violating its commitments. Canada needs a bespoke approach, similar to Mexico’s, but implemented differently.

First, Canada should renegotiate its tariff bindings at the WTO in sectors critical to its industrial base. The European Union, for example, is preparing to increase its tariffs on imported steel by renegotiating its bindings at the WTO. This would provide a long-term solution offering predictability for both the affected Canadian sectors and trading partners and would be fully lawful.

In the steel sector, this route is preferable to the current Canadian tariff-rate quota regime, which is both WTO-illegal and hitting Canada’s closest free-trade agreement partners hard.

Second, Canada should actively pursue safeguard measures in sectors affected by trade diversion. U.S. tariffs have closed off the American market and diverted goods to Canada.

Safeguards are WTO-compliant trade defence instruments explicitly designed to counteract an unexpected surge of imports threatening serious injury to a domestic industry. That scenario has already played out in the Canadian lumber and downstream industry and will likely affect other sectors subject to U.S. tariffs.

Third, using the recent rapprochement with China as a blueprint, Canada should strive for similarly nuanced solutions in future partnerships. Rather than dropping electric vehicle tariffs altogether, Canada has negotiated a compromise that let some Chinese vehicles in, but not enough to endanger either its domestic auto-sector or relations with the U.S.

As U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer recently stated, the U.S. is not asking its trading partners to mirror its trade policy. Rather, it’s looking for “similar trade actions” with “equivalent restrictive effect.”

This pragmatic formulation allowed Mexico to have its cake and eat it too: selectively align with the U.S. in key sectors to preserve its market access, protect domestic industries from trade diversion and avoid upsetting key trading partners elsewhere through WTO-illegal actions. Canada would be wise to follow Mexico’s lead. The recent China deal is a step in the right direction.

Wolfgang Alschner has received research grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

Organized labour continues to make gains in Canada’s most anti-union province

2026-01-19T17:07:15Z

In October 2025, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith invoked back-to-work legislation to end a strike by tens of thousands of the province’s teachers who had walked off the job over disputes around wages, class sizes and working conditions.

The legislation, known as the Back to School Act, forced the 51,000 striking teachers back to work and legislated a collective agreement that had been previously rejected by teachers during bargaining.

Smith also invoked the notwithstanding clause of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The clause is a constitutional provision that allows legislatures to override certain Charter protections, including the right to the freedom of association, which underlies the ability to strike.

This move was the latest in a long history of anti-union legislation in Alberta. The election of the United Conservative Party (UCP), led by former Premier Jason Kenney in 2019, heralded a return to anti-labour policies under the guise of “restoring balance” to what Conservatives perceived to be the NDP’s excessively pro-labour and pro-union reforms.

Both Kenney and, later, Smith reversed several changes introduced by Rachel Notley’s NDP government. Under the NDP, basic workplace rights were extended to non-family farm workers, first contract arbitration was introduced, remedial certification measures enacted and the right to strike and bargaining collectively was formally extended to the post-secondary sector.

The UCP reversed these gains.

Despite these obstacles, organized labour continues to make important gains in Alberta, Canada’s most anti-union province. Our new report draws on Statistics Canada data to examine the economic impact of unionization in Alberta.

Why unions matter

The benefits of unionization are well established. Unions can decrease income inequality and push for policy changes that benefit all workers and people with a stake in their work and service environments, as in the case of teachers advocating for smaller class sizes.

Organized labour also contributes to the fabric of democratic societies in many ways, including by advancing sustainable development.

This role is particularly critical now, in a period defined by affordability crises and accusations of authoritarianism south of the border. Unions provide one of the few mechanisms through which workers can push back and secure fair treatment in the workplace.

Unionization also provides stronger outcomes for women, immigrant workers and young workers. While unionized men in Alberta earned four per cent more than their non-unionized counterparts, unionized women earn 19 per cent more than their non-unionized counterparts.

Collective bargaining stalls or even reverses gendered and immigration status-based pay inequities. Unionization helps shrink the gender wage gap from 19 to eight per cent, and the usual pay gap between Canadian-born workers and immigrants is either eliminated or reversed in some industries.

The material impact of unionization

Even in provinces like Alberta, where union density rates are relatively low, unions can deliver economic justice.

Our analysis of an unpublished dataset shows that unionized workers in Alberta earn $3.40 an hour more than non-unionized workers ($37.88 per hour compared to $34.48 an hour). This difference is slightly higher than the national average across Canada.

The average unionized worker earns $1,404 a week, compared with $1,296 for non-unionized colleagues working a similar number of hours. Unionized workers are also more likely to have supplementary benefits, which is especially important in lower-wage sectors like food services.

Outcomes, however, are mixed. Part-time unionized workers gain the most, earning 29 per cent more than non-unionized ($32.57 an hour compared to $22.91). Unionized full-time workers, on the other hand, only earn five per cent more — $38.83 an hour versus $36.86 an hour.

Considering that some 20 per cent of workers in Alberta are employed part-time, these differences represent a substantial economic boost for a significant portion of workers.

Variation by sector

Unionized workers in Alberta earn, on average, more than their non-unionized counterparts, but results are mixed across industries and sub-sectors. Take retail, for example. In that industry, unionized workers may appear to earn less on average, largely because a higher proportion of them work part time, which pulls down overall wages.

In Alberta’s oil and gas sector, there is near parity between unionized and non-unionized workers when it comes to wages.

Even in health care and education, where many workers are unionized, collective bargaining can yield different outcomes within sectors.

In construction, some sub-sectors with fewer unionized workers actually show stronger wage gains than areas where unions are more established. These differences are shaped by a combination of industry-specific economic conditions, how wages are set by unions and how employers respond to union activity. Other variables, such as age, sex, education and tenure, also matter.

Political implications

For young workers, unions deliver the strongest wage advantages, even when accounting for other human capital variables like education levels and work experience. This is especially notable given that young workers are less likely to be unionized overall.

In both Canada and the United States, young workers demonstrate stronger positive opinions of unionization than their older co-workers, offering potential for unions seeking to grow their ranks provided they organize.

Alberta’s unions face significant political obstacles, but the evidence shows their resilience pays off for working people. That resilience should serve as an inspiration and call to action for union leaders everywhere.

Andrew Stevens receives funding from the Parkland Institute and the Government of Canada (Social Science and Humanities Research Council).

Angèle Poirier received funding from the Parkland Institute for work related to this article.

Carney’s China trip is another indication that Canada’s energy sector is its gateway to Asia

2026-01-19T14:30:19Z

Canada has a lot to gain in Asia. From his attendance at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in October 2025 to his recent visit in Beijing, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s diplomatic trips to Asia show that Canada has both an interest and a need to enter the huge Asian market.

The Indo-Pacific region is now the world’s main economic engine, contributing up to 60 per cent of global growth. While Japan and South Korea recorded growth rates of between one per cent and two per cent for 2025, China is maintaining a growth rate of 4.2 per cent, India of 6.6 per cent and the ASEAN nations (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Vietnam) are growing at a rate of 4.3 per cent.

Asian countries may have different goals — some are working to establish economic momentum while others are striving for high-income status. But they all share the common goal of finding reliable, accessible and operational energy sources. On the first day of Carney’s trip to China Canada agreed to co-operate with China more on both clean and conventional sources of energy.

In the coming years, the stability and diversification of energy suppliers will be key issues. The needs are very real and will only increase. So who will benefit?

As a doctoral student in political science affiliated with the Centre d'études et de recherches internationales (CÉRIUM) at L'Université de Montréal, I work on China and the Indo-Pacific region.

Redefining the geopolitical landscape

In February 2025, United States President Donald Trump declared a trade war on Canada and Mexico, even before turning his attention to China, a longtime American foe. From that point on, economic diversification became a strategic priority for Ottawa.

Elected in April on a promise that he was the right man to handle Trump’s threats, Carney used completely different language from that his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, on the importance of economic issues. In his election victory speech, Carney said he wanted to turn Canada into an energy superpower, both in clean and conventional energy.

This shift towards the economy, national security and pragmatism is well aligned with the needs of Asian countries, who are also seeking to diversify their supply chains and find stable and politically credible trading partners.

Canada’s appeal

According to Statistics Canada, combustible minerals (including oil, natural gas and coal), mineral oils and their derivatives accounted for 25 per cent of Canadian exports in 2024. In fact, energy resources are Canada’s leading export. However, 89.33 per cent of these resources are shipped to the United States; Canada’s largest export to ASEAN countries is grain.

If Canada wants to become an energy superpower, as Carney hopes, it will need to develop trade partnerships and, above all, energy partnerships with countries other than the U.S. The rapidly growing Asian market, which is seeking stability and energy security, could represent a viable long-term opportunity.

Growing energy consumption in Asia

Dependence on fossil fuels remains the norm in the region. According to data from the International Energy Agency, industry and transport account for the largest share of energy demand. This will continue to grow as industrialization and urbanization accelerate, particularly in emerging countries.

Coal remains by far the main source of energy, accounting for 49.3 per cent of primary energy consumption in the Indo-Pacific region and 57 per cent of electricity generation. However, coal resources are starting to run out.

Developed economies such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore import almost 100 per cent of their oil and gas, and China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil and gas, hit the import record of crude oil in 2025, with 11.5 million barrels per day (b/d). This means Indonesia and Malaysia are able to export their fossil fuels.

Indonesia is the world’s leading exporter of coal, and Malaysia is a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Nonetheless, the ASEAN Oil and Gas Updates 2024 report shows that Southeast Asia is facing a gradual depletion of its oil reserves and is expected to become a net importer of gas by 2027.

A region seeking energy sources

The region’s governments are in almost unanimous agreement about two major priorities. The first is ensuring and preserving their energy security, defined by the International Energy Agency as the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price. The second is transitioning to cleaner forms of energy than coal.

To achieve these two objectives, countries are stepping up their energy diversification initiatives and investing heavily in infrastructure construction. In Southeast Asia, new regasification and liquefaction plants are multiplying.

In 2023, the region had a total regasification capacity of 57.76 mtpa (million tonnes per annum) and a liquefaction capacity of 64.1 mtpa, with ambitious expansion plans in place for now to 2030, particularly in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines.

In China, the LNG infrastructure is scaling much faster and at far greater volume, With 161 mtpa of regasification capacity operational and a further 110 mtpa under construction.

Can Canada truly compete?

Canada has recently equipped itself with the means to compete with the U.S., which has been exporting LNG on a massive scale since 2016 from terminals in the Gulf of Mexico, although these shipments transit through the Panama Canal, a costly detour.

From that perspective, Canada has a considerable competitive advantage with a port terminal directly accessible from the West Coast. In July 2025, the first ship carrying Canadian LNG to Asia departed from the port of Kitimat, B.C. Of the five multinationals that contributed most to this project, four are Asian: Petronas (Malaysia), PetroChina (China), Mitsubishi Corporation (Japan) and KOGAS (South Korea).

On the oil side, despite delays and soaring construction costs, the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline network has increased Canada’s export capacity to 890,000 barrels per day, paving the way for exports to Asian partners from the country’s West Coast. Now, with more than Asian oil customer, Canada has seen the price per barrel rise rapidly in just months.

Even though it didn’t export any LNG before 2016, the U.S. became the world’s leading exporter in 2023 and its exports continue to break records. The market is there. The question is: who will reap the benefits, Canada or other countries?

Yaxin Zhou ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

Nowhere to stay: Canada needs a rights and responsibility approach to international student housing

2026-01-18T15:03:18Z

International students in Canada are vulnerable to housing insecurity and exploitation in the rental market.

Across Canada, students are grappling with record-high rents, low vacancy rates and widespread housing shortages. International students, however, experience these pressures in uniquely severe and unequal ways.

Many of them are unfamiliar with local rental markets and have small social networks. As well, they often have limited knowledge of their rights and often face uncertain immigration and financial situations.

As a result, international students are especially vulnerable to rental discrimination, housing insecurity, financial exploitation and even homelessness.

Ongoing research I’m conducting with colleagues highlights the responsibilities of governments and institutions who are obligated to uphold the housing rights of international students. Researchers have included Rupa Banerjee, Mariam (Mo) El Toukhy, Jack Krywulak and Rushde Akbar from Toronto Metropolitan University, and Sandeep Agrawal and Pradeep Sangapala from the University of Alberta.

This research examines the accountability measures and actions governments and institutions must take to ensure students’ rights are preserved using the Rights and Responsibility framework developed by researcher Kathryn Sikkink.

Based on our preliminary findings, grounded partly in interviews with students as well as research dialogue at a housing symposium, we offer urgent recommendations.

Housing is human right

Housing is widely recognized as a basic human right. Yet, international students often lack protection when securing safe and affordable housing.

They are also unfairly blamed for worsening Canada’s housing crisis.

Across the Global North, the lack of accessible and affordable housing has put international students at risk of housing insecurity. While financial instability is one main cause, many students also experience exploitation.

This includes overcrowded housing, rent hikes, forced evictions, illegal upfront rent payments, rental scams and harassment from landlords.

These negative housing experiences are linked to growing mental distress. Many students struggle to meet basic daily needs, such as food and shelter, and they face barriers to social integration. These vulnerabilities put international students at risk of psychological, academic and financial stress.

Limited support regarding tenant rights

International students also frequently report discrimination based on their status, race, ethnicity, gender and sexual orientation. These challenges are worsened by the limited support higher education institutions provide regarding tenant rights or finding safe, stable long-term housing.

Canada formally acknowledges housing as a basic human right under the National Housing Strategy Act of 2019. Through this legislation, the federal government has committed to ensuring that everyone in Canada has access to adequate housing. For international students, this means the right to live in safe, secure, affordable and adequate conditions.

But many international students are denied this right. Unfairly high rent, unsafe living conditions and discrimination often leave them living in severely inadequate conditions, all while being scapegoated for Canada’s growing housing pressures.

Root causes

In January 2024, the federal government capped international student visas to approximately 360,000. The 2025 budget also proposes cutting study permits by over half within three years.

Rather than addressing the longstanding housing crisis, this approach wrongly shifts blame onto international students, further marginalizing them and risking lasting harm to their health, academic success and future careers.

Current housing policies are outdated and lack intergovernmental co-ordination. This has worsened the country’s housing crisis by creating regulatory bottlenecks, misaligned incentives, inadequate development of affordable housing and insufficient co-ordination among stakeholders across sectors.

Government policies affecting student housing are complex and fragmented. They involve overlapping jurisdictions, including federal immigration decisions (like visa caps), provincial education mandates (such as student recruitment goals) and municipal zoning rules that regulate student housing development.

Not addressing housing needs

Canada’s National International Education Strategy (2019–24) incentivized universities and colleges to boost international student enrolment through grants tied to tuition revenue.

Institutional dependence on these fees grew, but the strategy was not accompanied by housing funding. Similarly, provinces regulate only domestic tuition, allowing institutions to maximize their reliance on international fees without addressing housing needs.

At the municipal level, zoning bylaws have also acted as barriers to student housing.

All levels of government should create formal avenues for collaboration on housing issues, while higher education institutions should play a key role in leading student housing development.

There is a clear need for co-ordinated action to address the policy, infrastructure and human rights dimensions of these challenges. Existing research rarely examines the role of multisectoral partnerships — or how key stakeholders, such as governments, higher education institutions, housing developers and community organizations should collaborate.

Research with students, stakeholders

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 24 international students from 14 countries, representing 10 higher education institutions from across southern Ontario — as well as with two private and non-profit housing developers, two student housing providers and one higher education representative.

Drawing on interview insights, we conducted an online survey with nearly 1,800 Ontario and Alberta international and domestic students.

Our findings echo recent studies showing that limited institutional services and resources, combined with poor governmental policy co-ordination, have left international students disproportionately vulnerable to exploitation and discrimination in housing markets.

Many turn to digital platforms, such as Facebook Marketplace, Kijiji and other rental agencies, in addition to social media, for housing information and resources. However, as several students from Nigeria, China and Cambodia reported, many online housing options are scams, including listings with false information and demands for six to 12 months of rent paid upfront. There is clearly an urgent need for safer and more reliable digital student housing infrastructure.

In the survey, international students reported greater stress during their housing search, heightened financial anxiety and more negative housing experiences compared to their domestic counterparts.

Key takeaways

International students’ lived experiences must be central to multi-level interventions. Their perspectives should be prioritized in shaping future housing policies and services.
Higher education institutions are in the best position to provide pre-/post-arrival online resources and guides to support international students in navigating safe and appropriate housing and protecting their housing rights.
Social integration and connections with the wider community help shape students’ well-being. Universities and colleges should facilitate opportunities for civic participation and community building through both on-campus and off-campus housing arrangements. This requires engaging community organizations and non-governmental organizations in building long-term partnerships focused on shared housing, digital infrastructure, legal protection and rights advocacy.
The fragmentation between immigration, education and housing policies requires special co-ordination. This project calls for an intergovernmental student housing task force as a platform for federal, provincial and municipal governments to work in tandem with universities and colleges.
Student housing developments should be incentivized, as current housing approval processes are often lengthy, complex and inconsistent. Fast-track reviews and standardized guidelines are needed. Current zoning regulations in many jurisdictions primarily recognize higher education institutions as legitimate student housing developers, requiring other private or non-profit developers to seek zoning amendments or institutional partnerships.

These rules should be expanded to allow private and non-profit developers, multi-tenant buildings and the reuse of commercial or office spaces. Student housing should also be developed near campuses with shared space designs to help students connect socially.

International students contribute significantly to Canada’s culture, prosperity and global standing. Urgent action is needed to protect these students’ rights and well-being while fostering community cohesion and long-term sustainability.

Zhixi Zhuang receives funding from Migrant Integration in the Mid-21st Century: Bridging Divides, a research program funded by the Government of Canada through the Canada First Research Excellence Fund (CFREF).

Why the burden of leadership is really about managing relationships

2026-01-14T17:01:09Z

Management is often painted as a discipline of strategy, efficiency and resource allocation. Leadership, in this view, is largely about positioning people effectively — much like moving pieces on a chessboard — and success is won by promotions and annual bonuses.

This understanding is also reflected in how leadership roles are typically described and evaluated. Job status and responsibility are often inferred from the number of direct reports a manager oversees, with larger teams signalling greater prestige and organizational importance.

More than three decades ago, however, management scholar Henry Mintzberg challenged the main conceptions of managerial work. He argued that the role of managers goes beyond planning and control, and instead involves dealing with information, making decisions and managing relationships.

Despite this longstanding critique, the image of management and leadership as a largely technical and hierarchical activity remains influential, particularly as organizations undergo changes. One such change is “delayering” — a flattening of organizational structures by removing layers of middle management.

In 2025 alone, approximately 41 per cent of organizations reduced their middle management. This places more burden on leaders to manage larger and more complex teams.

While these changes may reduce administrative costs, doing so leaves little to no time for leaders to foster complex relationships among employees or their own peers.

Leading relationships, not people

As it turns out, leading relationships, not people, is more complex than we first think.

Consider a simple example of a leader who oversees eight employees. This leader is not merely supervising eight units of work, but is overseeing up to 28 different dyadic relationships — relationships between two employees, or between a leader and an employee.

The nature of dyadic relationships dramatically increases the cognitive and emotional complexity and workload inherent in leadership roles.

Once the broader network of workplace relationships — including coalitions and alliances — is considered, the complexity moves far beyond leader-employee pairs. Leaders manage interpersonal relationships and political dynamics, not just individuals, along with the provision of resources and task co-ordination.

Leaders should encourage friends at work

Workplace relationship complexity is further intensified by what are known as “multiplex relationships.” These are relationships in which people share both instrumental and emotional ties with each other.

These relationships involve co-workers who support each other professionally while also serving as sources of genuine friendship and support. Such relationships are widespread in organizations and have been shown to be associated with higher work performance than either instrumental or social relationships alone.

These relationships are beneficial because employees are more willing to share complex and important information with peers who they trust.

An important caveat remains: the maximum number of multiplex ties for enhanced organizational performance is between five and seven. Beyond this point, the competing demands that make up emotional and instrumental relationships place further emotional and cognitive burdens on managers leading these relationships.

Leaders themselves can have multiplex ties with their employees, which is especially useful for team performance among teams that don’t get along.

Rethinking leadership

Given their prevalence and potential benefits for employee job performance, leaders need to pay more, not less, attention to relationships between employees. Leaders can play a role in shaping positive workplace dynamics within teams and across organizations.

Leaders who are better at fostering relationships inside and outside of organizations are more likely to improve their reputations and improve group performance than those who micromanage interactions within and between teams.

This requires a change in mindset. Management has long been framed as the act of managing people. Increasingly, it needs to be better understood as the work of leading relationships.

Ironically, delayering provides an opportunity to rethink and replace “management” with “leadership.” But leaders will only encourage and build multiplex relationships among their teams when they have received the training and resources to succeed in this new environment.

Yet, organizations have traditionally failed their leaders when it comes to training and development. Far too many people still get placed in leadership positions before they receive the training and development to enable them to succeed.

The new workplace reality demands that organizations support leaders not only to manage environments that reward individual performance, but in settings where complex and often messy relationships are central to leadership effectiveness.

Julian Barling receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Council of Canada.

Kaylee Somerville receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Council of Canada.

Why America hasn’t become great again

2026-01-12T19:43:15Z

United States President Donald Trump and his MAGA base are often portrayed as a break from past political norms. While that is certainly true, it overlooks the long and predictable path that led to his rise.

The slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) became the movement’s rallying cry, tapping into a nostalgic vision of a past era of economic prosperity and social dominance and appealing to voters who feel left behind by demographic and economic change.

Trump is the predictable result of the deteriorating economic conditions in the U.S. since the 1980s and the political machinations that brought those economic conditions about. In our recent book Why America Didn’t Become Great Again, we explore how the U.S. has set itself on a path toward self-destruction.

The rise of corporate power

‘Why America Didn’t Become Great Again’ by Robert Chernomas and Ian Hudson. (Taylor & Francis)

In the 1970s, higher taxes and regulation, a growing “rights-conscious revolution” around the environment, gender and race, demand for rising wages and increasing foreign competition threatened corporate power. In response, American business embarked on what billionaire Warren Buffett described as “class warfare.”

To transfer wealth and power from the many to the few, institutions had to be organized, government policies reoriented and economists, journalists and politicians recruited, funded and promoted.

Corporate lobbying skyrocketed. In 1971, only 175 firms had registered lobbyists in Washington, D.C.,; by 1982, 2,445 did. The number of corporate political action committees (PACs) rose from fewer than 300 in 1976 to more than 1,200 by the mid-1980s.

Business lobbying organizations advocated for policies like corporate tax cuts, deregulation, free trade, anti-worker legislation and more permissive rules on corporate political donations. Between 1998 and 2022, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent US$1.8 billion on lobbying activities, making it the single largest spender in the nation.

The role of wealthy individuals

Individual business owners also chipped in. Figures like Charles and David Koch funded organizations that aligned with their desire to create a U.S. free from government regulation, taxation, redistribution or public services. During the 2016 election cycle, Koch-backed PACs spent just under US$900 million.

Many of these organizations, like the Tea Party, also helped put into the mainstream an evangelical creationism that distrusted science and expert opinion, supported a patriarchal animosity to women’s rights, opposed policies to further racial equality and expressed xenophobic opinions.

The flood of corporate money shifted the political centre, making Democrats more conservative. No progressive economic policy has been passed in the United States since the 1970, with the tepid exception of the Affordable Care Act, which is friendly to the health insurance industry.

The strategy proved remarkably successful. According to political scientists Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page, when wealthy Americans strongly support a policy, it’s about twice as likely to be adopted. But strong support from the middle class has “essentially no effect.”

How does this happen in a working democracy?

Business leaders cannot win elections on their own — they need allies. One particularly large group was easy to convince. Since the 1960s, no Democratic presidential candidate has won the majority of white voters.

Between the 1960-64 and 1968-72 election cycle, support for Democratic candidates among less-educated white voters fell from 55 to 35 per cent. With the exception of the 1992 and 1996 elections when their votes were more evenly split, this gap has held to the present day.

Although their share of the population is declining, less-educated white voters still made up just under 50 per cent of the electorate nationally in 2018. College-educated white voters have tended to split their votes more evenly or provide a small edge to Republicans.

If Democrats have branded themselves as the party of inclusion — of different races, genders, ethnicities and sexualities — the Republican Party has defended what they euphemistically term “traditional values.”

In a Faustian bargain to advance a pro-business agenda, the Republican Party successfully appealed to less-educated white voters, whose historical economic and social advantages have been diminishing. They earn less and die younger than they used to and their advantages over other groups in society are diminishing.

The Republican Party seized on this group’s discontent and actively channelled it against African Americans and immigrants. As early as the 1960s, the Republican’s Southern strategy promoted racism, successfully shifting white voters to their party and shifting the political spectrum to the right. That strategy continued through Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, the Tea Party and Trump.

Importantly, this shift in voting preferences occurred well before the advent of the so-called “Rust Belt.” According to Pew Research, manufacturing jobs peaked in 1979.

Faced with declining standards of living, less-educated white voters could have chosen solidarity with all other workers and forced concessions from the elite of the business community to make the lives of all working-class people better. Instead, they voted to maintain the relative advantage of being white.

Rising inequality

The redistribution of income and wealth was detrimental to most Americans. Between 1973 and 2000, the average income of the bottom 90 per cent of U.S. taxpayers fell by seven per cent. Incomes of the top one per cent rose by 148 per cent, the top 0.1 per cent by 343 per cent, and the top 0.01 per cent rose by 599 per cent.

If the income distribution had remained unchanged from the mid-1970s, by 2018, the median income would be 58 per cent higher ($21,000 more a year). The decline in profits was halted, but at the expense of working families. Stagnant wages, massive debt and ever longer working hours became their fate.

Income stagnation is not the only quality of life indicator that suffered. In 1980, life expectancy in the U.S. was about average for an affluent nation. By the 2020s, it dropped to the lowest among wealthy countries, even behind China or Chile, largely due to the stagnation of life expectancy for working-class people.

The paradox of “red state” support

Less-educated white voters have historically supported politicians (mainly Republicans) who support cutting taxes for the rich and cutting social programs that they significantly benefit from.

In 2023, the Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas vowed to get the “bureaucratic tyrants” of the federal government “out of your wallets.” Yet the numbers tell a different story.

In 2019, the federal government collected only half as much in taxes as it spent in the state, amounting to about US$5,500 per person in Arkansas. Similar patterns hold in many other regions.

Republican Kentucky is the largest destination of federal transfers, receiving US$14,000 per resident, approximately 30 per cent of its entire gross domestic product.

The electoral preferences of red states don’t result in good outcomes. States won by Trump in the 2016 presidential election had lower average scores (similar to Russia) on the American Human Development Index — which measures income, education and health — than states won by Democrats, which are similar to the Netherlands.

The modern Republican agenda

For decades, the alliance between less-educated white voters and business worked very well for business. Trump’s MAGA still delivers longstanding pro-business policies, from deregulation to antagonism to workers’ rights and massive tax cuts for the rich.

Today, however, the Republican Party now also promotes policies that business has long fostered, if not supported, including a distrust of facts and science, the ethnic cleansing of the labour force, racism, a vengeance for justice and a hodgepodge of crony, incompetent economic priorities and policies.

This combination has created a more unstable and unpredictable political, economic and social environment, leaving a significant majority of CEOs yearning for the stable Republican Party of a bygone era.

Robert Chernomas is a Professor of Economics at the University of Manitoba and a member of Elbows Up: A Practical Program for Canadian Sovereignty. I am not affiliated with a political party or industry association but I am politically active.

Ian Hudson receives funding from SSHRC. Ian Hudson is a Research Associate for the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

How online communities are helping women stay in the skilled trades

2026-01-08T18:25:39Z

Canada is facing a significant demographic challenge. Between 2019 and 2028, approximately 700,000 skilled trades workers are expected to retire, leaving a major gap in the future workforce.

Governments have responded with more investments to increase interest in the skilled trades and support training, including a recent announcement by the Ontario government to invest $2.6 million in Skills Ontario.

Canada needs more people in the skilled trades, especially women. Yet despite many recruitment efforts, women remain significantly underrepresented in the skilled trades. Only 7.9 per cent of skilled trades workers are women in Canada.

Our recent research shows that the problem is not only whether women are interested in entering the skilled trades, but if they’re able to remain once they do.

A double stigma on the job

Women who enter the trades face a double stigma. Trades work is often socially devalued. At the same time, women must work as minorities in workplaces shaped by masculine norms.

While the skilled trades offer financial independence and meaningful work, the reality is that many environments are hostile to women. The double stigma appears in daily interactions that question a woman’s competence and professional identity. To survive this double burden, women are building vital support in an unexpected place: online communities.

In our interviews with women across Canada working in electrical, carpentry and plumbing trades, participants described feeling very isolated. Many were the only woman on their job site.

This isolation often led to exclusion, scrutiny and harassment. One licensed electrician described keeping a running list of who she was mistaken for on-site, including “the carpenter’s wife,” “the painter,” and “the cleaning lady,” rather than being recognized as a professional.

Lack of support beyond the job site

Our research found this isolation often extended beyond the workplace. Family and friends, who should be a key source of career support, were often unsupportive. Participants described that personal networks questioned the legitimacy of their career choices or treated their work as temporary.

Several participants shared that family members viewed their career choice as a “waste” of potential. Parents expressed disappointment that they had not pursued university degrees or traditional office-based careers.

One participant noted that her parents’ disappointment was rooted in a mentality that viewed office work as the only measure of success. Others intentionally delayed telling their parents of their new jobs as trades apprentices because they assumed their families would be disappointed.

Even within the industry, potential role models sometimes reinforced these beliefs. One apprentice described meeting a female instructor who advised her: “Don’t wear pink…just keep your mouth shut.” Another participant was discouraged by her instructor from attending a women-in-trades conference, implying it would be a poor career move and would draw unwanted attention.

Turning to digital communities

When in-person support systems failed, many women turned to the digital world. Our research found that private online groups, particularly on Facebook and LinkedIn, have become essential spaces for building the support needed to remain in the trades.

These online communities offer something job sites often cannot: anonymity and psychological safety. In these spaces, women can ask technical questions, seek advice about workplace dynamics and share experiences without fear of being labelled incompetent or unprofessional. This safety allows them to access knowledge that would otherwise remain closed to them.

Crucially, these platforms provide validation. When women experience harassment or toxic behaviour, online communities help them distinguish between normal industry hardships and unacceptable abuse.

One participant described posting in a group about a supervisor’s behaviour. The group confirmed the situation was toxic and immediately shared job postings to help her exit that specific workplace while remaining in the industry in her city. This intervention directly aided her in her decision to remain in the industry.

Despite persistent stigma, participants found meaning in their work. Many described satisfaction in producing tangible results and valued the physical nature of their labour. For some, the trades offered an escape from unfulfilling desk jobs and a pathway to financial stability that justified enduring difficult environments.

However, staying requires resilience. Women often succeed by learning how to endure repeated barriers. Online groups provide the emotional fuel for this resilience. They gave women space to recharge in a safe environment before returning to the job site.

Why retention matters

If Canada hopes to replace the 700,000 tradespeople expected to retire this decade, focusing on recruitment is not enough. While attracting new workers is essential, retention is equally critical, particularly for women, who continue to face unique barriers that push them out of the trades prematurely.

Employers and policymakers need to recognize that the informal networks that have long supported men in the trades often exclude women, particularly those without generational ties to the industry. Without these networks, women can struggle to access critical knowledge, guidance and opportunities for professional growth.

In the absence of these networks, digital communities have emerged as a low-cost, high-impact solution. By acknowledging the value of these networks and integrating them into training, mentorship and support programs, the skilled trades can begin to address the double stigma women face, and create conditions that will help women to stay in the field.

Daniela Gatti receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).

Mark Julien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Canada risks missing out on Africa’s trade boom under Mark Carney

2026-01-07T18:53:20Z

At the G20 summit in South Africa in November, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced several new initiatives, including talks toward a Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (FIPA) with South Africa.

But when asked about prioritizing Africa’s economic opportunities for Canada, Carney said Africa is not among his government’s early priorities because other regions offered “the most immediate return.” That remark was at odds with what many Canadians and African partners have been urging Canadian officials to do: treat Africa as a core partner in Canada’s economic diversification plan, diplomatic and geopolitical future.

Shortly after Carney’s remarks, in December, the Senate’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade released a landmark report entitled Canada–Africa: Seizing a Strategic Opportunity. It urged the federal government to engage Africa now with resources, ambition and a concrete action plan or risk being left behind.

Together, these two developments reveal a central tension shaping Canada’s Africa policy at the moment — and precisely when Africa’s global standing is rising.

Why this matters now

Africa’s demographic and economic trajectory is unmistakable. The continent’s working-age population is expanding faster than any other region, 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies are in Africa and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which aims to create one of the world’s largest integrated markets, is already in motion.

This demographic dividend and market potential matter not only to African states, but to countries like Canada seeking new trade diversification partners and growth opportunities.

Against this backdrop, the Senate’s report provides 21 recommendations — including the need for a detailed Africa Strategy action plan with timelines and resources, regular high-level dialogue with the African Union, support for AfCFTA implementation, strengthened trade commissioner services and enhanced diaspora engagement. It urges the government to match its promises with real resources and commitment.

Canada’s Africa Strategy

The government’s March 2025 Canada’s Africa Strategy was widely welcomed as a positive step toward a more coherent foreign policy on Africa. It articulates goals for shared prosperity, security and mutual co-operation, acknowledging Africa’s growing place in the world.

My own earlier analysis on Canadian engagement in Africa highlighted that Canada’s new strategy offered a foundation to rethink how it builds partnerships across the continent — not simply viewing Africa as a development recipient, but as a region of strategic partnership and economic opportunity.

I also noted how Canada could learn from China’s long-term engagement model, particularly its emphasis on sustained relationships, infrastructure and market access, while offering a distinct, values-based alternative.

Delivery is the real test

Canada’s Africa Strategy articulates a necessary vision, but follow-through remains limited. That gap is visible in Canada’s broader policy signals.

Even after the launch of the strategy, Africa remains marginal in Canada’s trade and economic planning. The 2025 federal budget identified priority trade markets in Europe and Asia, but not Africa, despite stated support for the AfCFTA. Such inconsistencies suggest lingering hesitation in committing political capital to Africa.

Diplomatic choices reinforce this impression. Limiting Carney’s G20 trip to South Africa alone missed an opportunity to signal a continentwide vision.

A short stop in another regional hub would have underscored Canada’s recognition of Africa’s diversity and strategic importance. Instead, the narrow itinerary conveyed a constrained reading of Africa’s geopolitical and economic landscape. African governments notice these signals, especially at a time when they are actively diversifying external partnerships.

None of this means Canada lacks opportunities. The nuclear co-operation agreement with South Africa signed at the G20 has real potential. A future FIPA could offer greater certainty for Canadian investors in South Africa. And although tentative, the reference to AfCFTA engagement at the G20 is significant.

But for these opportunities to lead to real outcomes, Canada needs a more deliberate and sustained approach backed by resources and political commitment.

Africa’s expanding consumer market

Why does this matter for Canadians? Africa has a young and fast-growing population, a burgeoning middle class and an expanding consumer market. Canadian firms, from clean technology and education to agribusiness and services, can benefit if supported at the right time with the right tools.

Diplomatic influence from a continent of 54 countries also flows from consistency and commitment; not intermittent engagement.

For the first time, the G20 in South Africa was a reminder that Africa is no longer peripheral to global politics. African markets are diverse, fast-changing and increasingly central to the global economy. This requires Canada to look past short-term returns, acknowledging Africa’s critical role in its economic future and investing resources to that end.

Other countries like China, Turkey, Brazil and Gulf states have already recognized this reality. Every year Canada delays, it risks losing ground that will be hard to reclaim.

Time to act

Despite the strategy’s imperfections, Canada now has a plan for engaging with Africa. But a plan is only as good as its implementation.

The Senate report is timely and calls for committing real resources, expanding diplomatic and trade support structures and elevating Africa in Canada’s foreign policy narrative well beyond occasional summits. It means sustained leadership attention from the prime minister and senior ministers.

If Canada seizes this moment with purpose, resources and political will, it can build genuine partnerships that benefit both Canadians and African partners. The Senate’s report aligns with the view that Africa is not a charity case; it is a strategic frontier for trade, innovation and geopolitical influence. Delivery must be the priority going forward, or Canada will be left behind.

Isaac Odoom does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Why Canada needs better data on strikes, unions and other labour issues

2026-01-07T17:40:04Z

In the summer of 2025, the federal government quietly pulled national strike and lockout data from public view. The move followed a complaint from the Confédération des syndicats nationaux (CSN), the second-largest trade union federation in Québec.

The CSN learned that an employer organization was waging an anti-union campaign using flawed data published by Statistics Canada. The data artificially inflated the number of strikes in the province, leading the Montreal Economic Institute to falsely assert that since 2023, 91 per cent of Canadian work stoppages had affected Québec.

On Dec. 16, the corrected data was restored without comment.

Months of missing data made it difficult for employers, unions and researchers to make sense of trends and emerging patterns in Canadian labour relations. Worse yet, the flawed data helped influence a debate and shape public opinion about labour law reform in Québec.

This episode highlights a persistent problem: Canada does a poor job of gathering vital labour relations information. In a period of rising inequality and renewed union-management conflict, stakeholders need better and more accurate data.

What disappeared and why it matters

For decades, Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) and Statistics Canada have published national data on strikes and lockouts. These figures allow journalists, members of the public and other stakeholders to track where conflicts are occurring, how large they are, how long they last and the number of workers involved over time.

Labour relations data is a basic need for the purpose of work-related policy analysis. Without timely and reliable figures, it becomes increasingly difficult to analyze current workplace conflicts, compare them across sectors or provinces or place them in historical context.

Long-term, consistent data sets are especially important because they allow researchers to identify trends: whether work stoppages are becoming more frequent, which industries are most affected and how policy changes may be influencing workplace conflict. When that continuity is broken, so is the ability to understand how the labour relations landscape is changing over time.

While ESDC’s public tables were unavailable, Statistics Canada’s historical tables, on which researchers often rely, were also negatively affected. The government offered no public explanation on its website for why the data were taken down, though ESDC now indicates that revisions were made to recent data covering Québec.

Canada lags behind other countries

Other countries show that better labour relations data collection is possible. In the United States, for example, the National Labor Relations Board consistently releases statistics on union certification applications and unfair labour practice cases, giving the public regular insights into trends in unionization and workplace conflict.

Some Canadian provincial labour boards publish annual reports, but nothing at the federal level matches the depth and timeliness of U.S. labour relations reporting. This leaves Canada with a patchwork of partial figures instead of a coherent national picture of how unions, employers and workers are interacting.

Despite the return of ESDC’s work stoppages data, Canada still lacks crucial information on the broader system of labour relations. There is currently no timely national source for data on new union certifications, membership levels in individual unions, unfair labour practices, strike votes, health and safety work refusals, or duty of fair representation complaints.

Researchers looking for this information must often wait for uneven provincial annual reports or file individual requests with provincial labour boards and Statistics Canada, which can be slow and costly.

In some cases, the data is not collected at all. The result is a system in which some of the most important features of labour relations are effectively hidden from public view by administrative fragmentation.

Models Canada could follow

Canada already has models that show how a national labour relations data system could work. The Ontario Ministry of Labour’s collective bargaining database, for instance, tracks public and private sector negotiations, wage settlements, mediation and arbitration outcomes, and even the contents of recent collective agreements.

The Association of Workers’ Compensation Boards of Canada shows that provincial data can be combined to create a clear national picture. Working with provincial workers’ compensation boards, it produces national statistics on injuries, fatalities and other workplace safety issues.

The ESDC could use this model to build a national labour relations database that would include information on union certification applications and outcomes, membership trends by sector and region, unfair labour practice complaints and work refusals.

Such a resource would help policymakers see what’s happening in Canada’s workplaces, allow unions and employers to compare bargaining results, and help journalists and the public evaluate how well labour laws work. It would also strengthen academic research and support better labour relations policy.

Expanding public access to labour relations data would also send a clear signal that the federal government understands the value of evidence-based policy decisions. In a period when official statistics on wages, jobs and prices are under political pressure in other countries, Canada has an opportunity and a responsibility to strengthen its own commitment to open, reliable labour relations data.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Digital payments can expand financial inclusion — but only under the right conditions

2026-01-06T19:01:19Z

Digital payments are often presented as a way to bring more people into the financial system. Mobile wallets, online transfers and app-based payment systems are now central to how governments, banks and technology firms talk about expanding access to financial services.

This is particularly significant today. Around the world, governments are investing heavily in digital finance as part of broader development and sustainability strategies. In Canada, public efforts have focused on strengthening digital payment infrastructure and regulation rather than expanding access directly.

Payments Canada is undertaking a multi-year modernization of core payment systems, including the development of a real-time payment rail, while the federal government has introduced a consumer-driven banking framework to support secure data sharing and innovation in financial services.

From emerging economies to high-income countries, digital payments are seen as tools for inclusion, resilience and growth, from India’s Unified Payments Interface to Brazil’s PIX instant payment system.

At the same time, digital payments do not work equally for everyone. Our recent research suggests a more complex picture of digital payments.

A more complex picture

Digital payment technologies can support financial inclusion, especially in places where traditional banking services are limited.

By reducing the need for physical bank branches, digital platforms can lower costs, save time and make basic financial services easier to use, particularly for low-income and rural populations who can access accounts and payments through mobile phones rather than in-person banking.

Evidence from multiple countries shows that digital financial services reduce transaction costs and expand access to formal financial tools for households and small businesses that were previously excluded.

For many households and small businesses — particularly in developing and emerging economies — this has expanded access to accounts and payment services.

Foundations matter for adoption

In our study, we reviewed research from the past decade about how digital payment technologies affect financial inclusion worldwide.

One of our key findings is that digital payment systems tend to perform best when certain conditions are already in place. Reliable internet and mobile networks, affordable devices and basic digital skills all matter for people to be able to use and benefit from digital payments.

Where these foundations are weak or uneven, adoption remains limited, even when digital payment options are widely available. Research shows that limited digital infrastructure, low internet access and weak technology readiness can act as significant barriers to adoption, meaning that simply introducing new technology does not guarantee that people will use it.

Trust also plays a crucial role. People are more likely to use digital payments when they trust the financial system behind them and feel confident their money is safe, and when security and privacy concerns are addressed.

In countries where financial institutions are weak or consumer protection is limited, digital platforms often struggle to gain widespread acceptance. This was the case with Nigeria’s eNaira, where fewer than 0.5 per cent of the population was using the digital currency a year after launch and most wallets remained inactive.

In such settings, cash frequently remains the preferred option, even when digital alternatives exist.

Persistent gender and socioeconomic gaps

Gender gaps are another recurring pattern. Across many countries, women are less likely than men to use digital financial services. These differences aren’t caused by technology itself, but by broader social and economic factors.

Women often have less access to mobile phones, lower digital literacy and less control over financial resources. As a result, digital payment systems can reflect — and sometimes reinforce — existing inequalities rather than eliminate them.

Income and education levels also influence adoption. People with higher incomes or more education are generally better positioned to adopt digital payments and benefit from them.

For lower-income users, concerns about fees, data costs, security and usability can discourage regular use. This helps explain why many digital payment platforms report high registration numbers but much lower levels of sustained activity.

The institutional and regulatory environment also shapes outcomes. Evidence shows that digital payments are more effective when supported by clear rules, strong consumer protections and well-functioning oversight.

When regulation is unclear or enforcement is weak, users may hesitate to rely on digital platforms for everyday transactions. When digital payments are integrated into a broader, trustworthy financial ecosystem, they are more likely to contribute to meaningful inclusion.

Promises and limits of technology

Newer technologies, such as blockchain-based payment systems, are sometimes presented as a way to overcome these challenges. While they may offer advantages in specific contexts, our research shows the evidence remains cautious.

Their effectiveness depends heavily on regulation, institutional capacity and user confidence. As with other digital tools, outcomes vary widely across countries and communities.

It’s clear that digital payments are not a simple solution. Their impact depends on how they’re designed, regulated and used within existing social and economic systems.

For policymakers and firms, this has important implications. Expanding financial inclusion is not just about introducing new technologies or increasing the number of digital accounts. It requires attention to affordability, usability, trust and the barriers faced by groups that are already disadvantaged. Without this broader perspective, digital finance risks widening gaps rather than closing them.

Digital payments can play a valuable role in promoting financial inclusion, but only under the right conditions. The evidence shows that technology can support inclusion, but it cannot replace the institutional, social and policy foundations on which inclusive financial systems ultimately depend.

A regime change in Venezuela could have grim consequences for Canada’s oil sector

2026-01-05T17:43:49Z

Following Nicolás Maduro’s capture in Caracas by United States military forces, active planning for political transition in Venezuela has intensified in Washington, D.C.

For the U.S., the prize is the prospect of reviving one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves and reshaping global energy markets in its favour.

But the ripple effects would extend well beyond Caracas and the U.S. A Venezuelan oil revival could also subtly increase American leverage over Canada — particularly Alberta — through its impact on oil prices, investment flows and longstanding debates about Canada’s energy future.

At first glance, this may seem counterintuitive. Canada is traditionally a close American ally and its largest foreign oil supplier. Yet Canada and Venezuela largely compete in the same heavy-oil regional and global markets, and shifts in supply from Canada to Venezuela would widely reverberate across the Canadian economy and political landscape.

Heavy crude, lower prices and U.S. refineries

If U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are lifted and the country’s oil sector is partially revived, even a modest increase in production could have outsized effects on prices — especially for heavy crude. American Gulf Coast refineries are specifically configured to process heavy crude, historically sourced from Venezuela, Mexico and Canada’s oilsands.

More Venezuelan barrels on the market would increase competition for these refineries and possibly those in the American Midwest. This could push down the price premium currently enjoyed by Canadian heavy crude, such as Western Canadian Select.

For U.S. refiners, cheaper crude is good news. For Canadian producers, it could squeeze margins already vulnerable to global price volatility and high production costs.

In this sense, Venezuela’s return would not simply add supply; it would challenge Canada’s niche in the U.S. oil import market.

Investment trade-offs and the oilsands dilemma

Oil markets are not just about barrels — they’re about capital. Investors make choices about where to place long-term bets, and those choices are increasingly shaped by climate policies, energy transition expectations and geopolitical risk.

A perceived opening in Venezuela could redirect some international investments away from Alberta’s oilsands. Even if Venezuela remains risky, the idea of accessing vast reserves at lower costs may appeal to investors looking for short-term gains in a declining oil market.

This shift could further undermine already fragile (and climate-threatening) prospects for new oilsands expansion and make additional pipeline projects to Canada’s West Coast even harder to justify.

If global capital sees fewer long-term returns in high-cost, high-carbon oil, Alberta may find itself competing not just with renewables, but with other oil producers closer to U.S. markets. This could play in favour of an additional pipeline to Canada’s West Coast to reach China, which may not see so many shipments from Venezuela, especially if the U.S. pressures Caracas to privilege its own market and companies.

Economic pressure and the politics of separatism

Weaker oil revenues could also reshape Alberta politics. Much of the province’s separatist rhetoric has historically rested on the idea that Ottawa “takes” Alberta’s oil wealth through federal transfers and environmental regulations.

If oil revenues decline structurally due to lower prices and reduced investment, the economic foundation of this grievance weakens. A less oil-dependent Alberta may have fewer material incentives to push for sovereignty, even if political frustrations remain.

This doesn’t mean discontent would disappear. But it suggests that long-term changes in global energy markets could quietly reduce the appeal of resource-based nationalism in Canada’s West.

The urgent case for diversification

For Alberta and Canada more broadly, the lesson is clear: economic diversification is no longer optional; it’s an urgent necessity. Betting on sustained high oil prices has always been risky; betting on them in a world of messy energy transition is increasingly untenable.

This means doubling down on alternative export revenues, from clean technologies and critical minerals to advanced manufacturing, agri-food and knowledge-based services. It also means investing in workforce transitions, regional innovation and infrastructure that supports economic resilience beyond oil.

The prospect of Venezuela’s return to oil markets underscores why Canada cannot rely indefinitely on being the “safe” oil supplier to the United States.

A Venezuelan oil boom remains unlikely

All of this, however, rests on a big “if.” A rapid and large-scale revival of Venezuela’s oil sector is improbable. Years of mismanagement, underinvestment and sanctions have left infrastructure in poor condition.

Production costs are high, oil quality is low and the carbon footprint of Venezuelan heavy crude is significant, a growing liability in a carbon-constrained world.

What’s more, U.S. oil company interests don’t always align with American energy security and geopolitical policy objectives, and expectations of an oil surplus in the coming decades dampen enthusiasm for massive new investments.

Political uncertainty remains acute, and even American firms like Chevron operate under fragile arrangements that could be reversed. Though it’s unlikely, a more revolutionary, post-American intervention government in Venezuela might even seek retribution against the U.S. and other foreign companies seen as complicit in past pressure campaigns.

In short, Venezuela’s oil is vast, but monetizing it at scale is another matter.

Lessons from past regime change efforts

History offers sobering lessons about past efforts to bring about regime change.

In Iraq, Iran and Libya, attempts to reshape energy sectors through regime change or coercive pressure often backfired. Production disruptions, political instability and nationalist backlash frequently undermined both investor confidence and geopolitical objectives.

There are some reasons to assume Venezuela would be different, including ongoing negotiations between U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and the regime in Caracas, limited economic and military options for the former Maduro regime and a growing consensus among major powers that they can gain from a return to imperialist “spheres of influence.”

But energy markets reward stability more than ideology, and regime change rarely delivers it quickly.

Who else loses from lower oil prices?

Finally, it’s worth noting that lower oil prices would not hurt Canada alone. In the U.S., the first casualties would likely be some oil producers, particularly smaller shale firms with high debt and thin margins. While a few large American oil companies might benefit from cheaper acquisitions and refinery gains through access to cheaper Venezuelan supply, many smaller U.S. producers could suffer.

This complicates the notion that the U.S. would unambiguously “win” in the event of a Venezuelan oil revival. Energy geopolitics creates winners and losers on all sides.

In the end, Venezuela’s political future may matter less for Canada because of what happens in Caracas and more because it highlights a deeper reality: oil no longer offers the geopolitical and fiscal certainty it once did. For Canada, adapting to that reality, rather than betting against it, may be the most strategic move of all.

Philippe Le Billon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Feeling stuck at work as the New Year begins? It may be a sign of professional growth

2026-01-04T13:50:28Z

As the new year starts, it’s natural to feel torn between gratitude and restlessness. December often disrupts routines: fewer meetings, quieter inboxes and a rare chance to take stock and reflect.

During this time, people may feel pride in how far they have come, alongside a growing sense that the path they are on no longer fits.

This discomfort is especially common at stages of life when professionals expect to feel more settled, yet instead feel stagnant. It’s easy to dismiss such feelings as impatience or a lack of commitment.

But research on adult learning and development suggests that feeling stuck is often a signal of growth. It’s evidence that our internal development has outpaced our external circumstances.

In educational research, this tension is often described as a disorienting dilemma: an experience that unsettles our assumptions and highlights a mismatch between how we see ourselves and the contexts we are in.

While these moments are often uncomfortable, they act as necessary catalysts for meaningful learning and change, motivating people to reassess their goals, values and direction. Seen this way, yearning for new beginnings is a rational response to growth.

Diagnosing the source of restlessness

If you’re ready for change but unsure of where to begin, a useful first step is clarifying what is driving the sense of restlessness. Is it the work itself, the people you work with or the broader organizational culture?

When organizations are generally supportive, growth doesn’t necessarily require leaving. Change may be possible within the same environment. In these cases, conversations with supervisors can reveal opportunities that are not immediately obvious, such as stretch assignments, special projects or support for further learning.

Research shows that people who stay with organizations over the long term often do so because of strong relationships, a good fit with their broader lives and what scholars call “job embeddedness” — the financial, social and psychological benefits of the position that make leaving costly.

But when the cost of staying is stifling your growth, it’s worth exploring how you might either renegotiate growth where you are or thoughtfully prepare to move on.

Re-evaluating what matters now

Whether you’re considering a shift within your organization or beyond it, taking time to reassess your needs, goals and values is essential. What mattered to you earlier in your career may not matter in the same way now. Income, learning, flexibility, stability and meaning all rise and fall in importance across life stages.

Clarifying your values does not mean choosing one priority forever. It simply provides a clearer map for evaluating opportunities.

Some people prioritize mentorship or employer-supported education. Others need predictable schedules, strong health benefits or flexibility to care for family members.

Understanding what matters most now helps narrow your options and reduces the paralysis that often accompanies big decisions.

Focusing on activities rather than titles

Another way to gain clarity is to imagine your ideal role without fixating on job titles.

Titles can be misleading and often mask the day-to-day reality of the work. Instead, focus on activities. How will you spend most of your time? What skills will you be using day to day?

One useful question is what activities you would gladly do without being paid. These often point to core strengths and motivations worth taking seriously. Organizational psychologists describe this as intrinsic motivation — the internal drive to engage in an activity because it is inherently satisfying.

For example, early in my career, I began to notice a pattern in my volunteer work. I was consistently drawn to supporting professionals through moments of career transition, conflict and change. Over time, that realization helped me recognize that mentoring and coaching were activities I already valued enough to do for free.

With that insight, I began targeting roles in my own career that rewarded those same activities, ensuring that my work consistently included elements that felt both meaningful and energizing.

Preparing for the next step

Once priorities and interests are clearer, look closely at the qualifications and experiences the roles you are drawn to actually require and begin developing them intentionally.

This can occur through low-risk avenues, including projects in your current job, entrepreneurial or side work, volunteer roles or targeted learning opportunities.

Consistently taking small, purposeful steps can help you systematically bridge the gap between your current capabilities and the demands of your next chapter. By actively cultivating these skills, you transform a period of restlessness into a constructive phase of professional readiness.

As you consider what comes next, use your network strategically to learn and ask questions. New beginnings unfold through conversations, experiments and choices made over time.

Also pay attention to the beliefs shaping your actions. Assumptions about what you can or cannot do can limit options more than skills ever do. Feeling stuck is an invitation to evolve and may mark the start of an exciting new chapter you can begin writing today.

Leda Stawnychko receives funding from SSHRC.

The climate insurance gap is widening, and it’s leaving marginalized Canadians behind

2025-12-21T13:57:34Z

Every year, extreme weather events wreak havoc across Canada, disrupting the lives of tens of thousands. Financial losses from these events have surged, surpassing $7 billion in 2024, due in part to climate change, asset accumulation and more people living in high-risk areas.

Evidence from Canada, the United States and Europe shows that weather-related disasters aren’t experienced equally. The people hardest hit are often those with the fewest resources to cope.

Lower-income and marginalized populations face greater exposure, have fewer resources to prepare or recover and incur a higher proportion of losses not covered by insurance.

Even if they are insured, many people have difficulty covering the deductible because they lack emergency savings. This means damage is not repaired, people live in unsafe or unhealthy conditions and the financial and personal risk of future events is increased.

Insurance helps households recover and can prevent them from falling — or falling deeper — into poverty after a disaster. But across Canada, insurance is becoming costlier and, in some places, harder to get. Between 2019 and 2023, average home insurance premiums rose by 21 per cent overall. For lower-income Canadians, that increase was 40 per cent.

A widening protection gap

Canada’s growing insurance protection gap is a serious concern, and it’s widening at a time when weather-related disasters are becoming more frequent and more severe.

When households are uninsured, losses can strain household budgets and leave people unable to meet their basic needs. As extreme weather escalates, so does the likelihood that more families will find themselves unable to recover.

Affordability is the primary driver of the protection gap, but it is not the only one. Many Canadians do not understand the benefits of insurance, or underestimate the probability and cost of suffering a loss.

Accessibility to insurance is also a challenge, especially in remote areas where it is usually purchased in person. While the growth of digital purchasing channels helps, it is not a solution for those without reliable internet or sufficient digital skills.

Finally, the market itself does not always meet the needs of low-income or otherwise marginalized groups. There is a lack of insurance products designed for these groups, leaving many without the protection they need.

Strengthening community resilience

Better insurance options, stronger investments in mitigation and better support for consumers can help reduce inequities and strengthen resilience.

Community-level mitigation is a good starting point. Land-use planning that steers development away from high-risk areas can prevent future losses. Programs like FireSmart, which reduces wildfire losses, and infrastructure designed for a changing climate also help limit damage as severe weather becomes more frequent.

National assessments show that making housing more resilient reduces exposure for lower-income and marginalized households that are more likely to live in older or poorly maintained homes, putting them at greater risk.

While major retrofits can be costly, even small upgrades such as improving drainage, installing backwater valves or fire-resistant materials can help prevent damage. Many municipalities provide targeted subsidies and incentive programs that support these upgrades, particularly for households facing greater financial constraints.

Making hazard information easier to find and understand can also help ensure no one is left behind when disasters strike. Many Canadians lack clear information about the hazards they face and how to prepare for them. Some residents, including newcomers and seniors, may face barriers in accessing or acting upon available information.

Finally, community supports can further strengthen resilience. People with strong social ties and access to community organizations recover more quickly after disasters. Programs that build local networks and support neighbourhood groups can help accomplish this at a relatively low cost.

Closing the protection gap

A critical step in reducing the unequal impacts of weather-related hazards is closing Canada’s insurance protection gap. Microinsurance is one promising solution, and these simplified, low-cost policies can provide basic protection at a fraction of the cost for households that cannot afford traditional coverage.

Embedded tenant insurance — automatically included when renters sign a lease — is another approach that ensures basic coverage.

Digital tools, such as mobile-friendly sign-up platforms and plain-language policy explanations, can reduce barriers for those who struggle with technology.

Public support for income-tested premium subsidies or credits can bring essential coverage within reach for low-income households, while community-based catastrophe insurance — where local governments or community groups arrange coverage on behalf of residents — offers another option.

While Canadians can’t stop extreme weather, we can work together to prevent it from worsening inequality. Increasing awareness, reducing losses, closing insurance gaps and building resilience are key to protecting those at greatest risk.

Derek Cook is the Director of the Canadian Poverty Institute that receives funding from The Co-operators Insurance Company. The Canadian Poverty Institute is also a partner with The Resilience Institute on a collaborative project that is funded by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Company (CMHC).

Mary Kelly has received funding from Finance Canada and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She is also on the board of directors of Heartland Mutual Insurance Company.

Anne E. Kleffner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Sex, jazz, liquor and gambling: How Montréal’s nightlife shifted in the mid-20th century

2025-12-18T14:28:44Z

Montréal street at night, 1963-1967. (BiblioArchives /LibraryArchives/4943640/Flickr), CC BY

The history of Montréal’s night-time regulation reveals how managing nightlife expanded police power and budgets — and how burdensome effects of these changes fell disproportionately on sex workers, the queer community and hospitality industry workers.

For much of the first half of the 20th century, Montréal built a reputation as a North American nightlife capital. Tourists sought out cabarets, jazz clubs and after-hours bars, and moved through the red-light district where sex, gambling and liquor were openly available.

This permissiveness relied on a well-understood but illicit arrangement: police officers, politicians, madams, taxi drivers, performing artists and business owners all participated in a protected nighttime economy.

By the mid-1950s, however, this tolerance became the starting point for one of the largest expansions of police authority in Canadian urban history.

As I examine in my book Montreal After Dark: Nighttime Regulation and the Pursuit of a Global City, Montréal’s political leadership came to see nightlife control not as a marginal issue but as a central measure of civic order and modernity. And that shift transformed the police force.

When night became a policing problem

In the 1940s, the Montréal Police Department was already stretched thin. Officers enforced wartime blackouts, guarded industrial sites and cracked down on sexually transmitted infections among soldiers and civilians.

The Morality Squad (“Escouade de la moralité”) — enlarged during wartime fears over delinquency — patrolled theatres, bars, parks and known queer or youth meeting places.

Young women were frequently arrested for “immoral” behaviour, while queer men faced entrapment and harassment. In this, Montréal’s squad resembled its North American counterparts, variously labelled vice squads — or, in Toronto’s case, the Morality Department, disbanded in the 1930s.

Pursuing a new urban order

Pacifique “Pax” Plante, a city prosecutor, took over the Morality Squad at this time.

He insisted that officers apply laws long ignored, raiding brothels, gambling houses and nightclubs that had operated under longstanding police protection. His crusade threatened the partnerships that sustained Montréal’s nighttime economy, and this led to his dismissal in 1948.

But the damage had been done; his campaign pushed the city into the 1950–53 Caron Inquiry, which laid bare a police force deeply entangled in the very nightlife it was meant to regulate.

Cleaning up the city required more than moral zeal. Reformers pursued a new urban order which led to hiring, retraining, centralizing authority and expanding the budget. Nightlife policing became one of the clearest justifications for growth.

Building a modern police force

Pacifique Plante, on the right, with Jean Drapeau, left, who served as Montréal mayor between 1954–57 and 1960–86. (WikiMedia/Le Mémorial du Québec)

After the inquiry, Jean Drapeau’s Civic Action League won the 1954 municipal election on a promise to restore honesty and order. But doing so required rebuilding the police. At mid-century, the force was large but demoralized, discredited by scandal and mistrusted by residents.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, the city invested heavily in police professionalization. European consultants from London and Paris reorganized the department, streamlined command structures and introduced new standards of training and discipline — reforms similar to those underway in Chicago and Los Angeles. Hundreds of new officers were hired and night patrols increased. Raids on cabarets, clubs and small bars became routine.

By the late 1960s, the police budget had risen sharply. Montréal’s political atmosphere — defined by protests, marches, labour disputes, dissent and fears of radical activity — gave elected officials strong incentives to keep expanding the force.

The 1969 police and firefighter strike plunged the city into chaos: looting, fires and riots. The municipal administration used the event to argue for further investment in policing, reinforcing an upward spiral in budget growth and authority.

Growing police budget

Moments of unrest were not daily occurrences, but they created a climate in which constant budget increases appeared necessary.

Tellingly, between the mid-1950s and 1970, Montréal’s police budget grew from $9.6 million to $49.7 million — an increase of more than 400 per cent and far outpacing overall municipal spending.

Yet, the everyday, not the exceptional, absorbed the department’s time. Officers spent their nights patrolling streets, parks, clubs and cabarets, enforcing morality laws and municipal bylaws.

They targeted sex workers, queer men and women and performing artists working after dark. Street checks, like arrests for prostitution charges, shaped the routine work of policing, linking the department’s growth directly to the governance of nighttime public space.

Nighttime surveillance — from enforcing bar hours to policing street sex work — became part of a broader municipal project that linked order, cleanliness and safety to global ambitions.

Expo 67, 1976 Olympics

Hostess uniforms of Expo 67. (Library and Archives Canada/Bibliothèque et Archives Canada), CC BY

As Montréal formalized its place on the global stage, first during Expo 67 and later during the 1976 Olympics, the policing of nightlife intensified.

For example, fearing that Expo would attract sex workers and petty crime, the city adopted a controversial “anti-mingling” bylaw.

This forbade employees in licensed establishments from sitting, drinking or even talking with customers. Because this bylaw was designed to curb sex workers from soliciting in drinking establishments, police enforced the regulation most aggressively against women.

Dancers, singers, barmaids and hostesses were arrested for ordinary workplace interactions. The bylaw blurred the line between hospitality work and sex work, effectively criminalizing women’s participation in the nighttime economy.

Anti-prostitution bylaws

By the early 1980s, the city — along with other Canadian urban centres — introduced “anti-prostitution” bylaws to expand police powers despite limits imposed by the Supreme Court of Canada. This led to a pan-Canadian review of sex work in society.

These local tools disproportionately targeted women, transgender people and racialized sex workers, who were increasingly arrested simply for being in public spaces at night.

Whose night?

By the ‘80s, Montréal presented itself as a global cultural hub — home to major festivals, theatres and a thriving, “respectable” nightlife. That transformation, however, rested on the continued policing of many of the people who had historically sustained the nighttime economy.

The police department had become one of the city’s largest expenses, and nighttime enforcement one of its most visible activities.

The legacy is visible today. Independent venues face noise complaints, rising regulatory costs and the threat of closure.

The city’s recent support fund for small venues offers some relief, but it doesn’t answer the central question: who is allowed to shape Montréal and its nights, and who is pushed out in the name of order?

Seen from a nocturnal angle, Montréal’s history — like the history of many cities — shows that “safety” is never neutral. From the 1940s onward, expanding police budgets rested on the idea that the night was inherently unruly and needed constant control.

Debates about rights

Rather than allocating resources toward the concerns raised by the feminist Take Back the Night movement or by emerging queer organizations, the city focused on moral regulation — a pattern that consistently targeted those living and working after dark.

The ‘Take Back the Night’ movement stands against sexual violence and asserts the rights of women and gender-diverse people to move freely in, and enjoy, the night. (Howl Arts Collective/Flickr), CC BY

As cities debate how to sustain their nighttime economies while keeping residents safe, Montréal’s past reminds us that the way we govern the night determines who gets to belong in it.

For policymakers and residents today, the lesson is simple: debates about nightlife are also debates about rights, inclusion and the fair use of public space. Safer nights are built not only through policing, but through investment, participation and recognition of the communities that bring the city to life after dark.

Matthieu Caron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

What happens when managers don’t act? New research reveals the consequences can be severe

2025-12-17T17:10:49Z

Most people recognize that we shouldn’t actively harm others at work. Yet people tend to assume that failing to act is relatively benign or inconsequential.

Imagine witnessing an employee being belittled by a coworker. As a manager, should you step in or could staying on the sidelines give employees room to resolve conflict themselves?

Our new research demonstrates that “perceived managerial inaction” — the belief that a manager has failed to act in response to a negative experience — can have devastating consequences in the workplace. We examined how employees react when they believe their manager has failed to respond to a harmful or disrespectful incident.

Across an experiment and surveys involving hundreds of employees, we measured whether people felt their manager had a duty to intervene, whether they believed that duty was violated and how this shaped their trust, well-being and behaviour.

What is perceived managerial inaction?

Because of their formal position of authority, managers have the obligation to protect their employees from harm and maintain a safe and ethical work environment.

We use the term perceived employee-directed managerial inaction to describe situations in which employees believe their managers have not acted to prevent or address potential harm to them. Three conditions need to be present for employees to perceive managerial inaction:

There was a potential for harm to the employee;
The manager was aware of this potential for harm, and
The manager violated perceived managerial responsibilities or obligations by failing to act in response to this potential for harm.

When these conditions are met, employees interpret the absence of a response as a meaningful choice.

Why it matters for individuals and organizations

Perceived managerial inaction has real, measurable effects on employees’ well-being and their relationship with the manager.

Our research reveals that even a single instance of perceived managerial inaction can result in profound consequences. Employees can lose trust in their manager, even if there was a pre-existing positive relationship and their manager had demonstrated positive leadership behaviours.

Perceived managerial inaction can also undermine managers’ effectiveness. Our studies indicated that it can motivate employees to protect themselves from the manager by withdrawing support, engaging in negative gossiping and resisting work-related requests.

Organizations also face risks, as there is increasing momentum to hold them accountable for managers’ inaction. As high-profile cases show — such as the California lawsuit alleging that Activision Blizzard managers failed to “take reasonable steps” to protect employees from discrimination — inaction can escalate from an interpersonal issue to a legal and reputational one.

Addressing common misconceptions

Many managers underestimate the impact of doing nothing. Our research highlights four misconceptions that often keep leaders from acting and the reality behind them.

Misconception #1: Inaction is benign, and employees won’t notice or negatively react to managerial inaction.

Reality: Employees can be highly attuned to inaction because it has significant implications for how they perceive their manager and navigate their work environment.

Misconception #2: Inaction can empower employees or help them grow.

Reality: Even if managers withheld action with positive intentions, employees experience inaction as a violation of managerial responsibilities.

Misconception #3: The negative effect of managerial inaction is short-lived.

Reality: Managerial inaction can cause short- and long-term damage to employees’ well-being, managerial effectiveness and organizations at large.

Misconception #4: The negative effect is limited to the employee who perceived that the manager failed to act.

Reality: By failing to address harmful experiences, managers may inadvertently signal that mistreatment will be tolerated, which can normalize mistreatment within the workplace and increase its frequency.

Practical recommendations for managers

Managers are not only responsible for their actions, but also for failing to act to protect employees from harm. If inaction occurs or is perceived to have occurred, managers can take steps to repair trust and prevent harm:

1. Talk to the affected employee about inaction and address the source of the harm.

Listen to and support employees, including acknowledging their experience and any harm that occurred. Provide a clear explanation for why you did not act, without being defensive. Be honest if you were not sure what was happening at the time or if you did not know how to act. Take appropriate steps to remedy the situation: apologize, acknowledge responsibility and clearly communicate the steps you will take to repair harm and prevent future occurrences.

2. Recognize that the impact of the situation may include coworkers and the team.

Those who witnessed or heard about the incident may need support or benefit from debriefing the incident. If the negative experience involved employee mistreatment, reinforce that any mistreatment is against organizational norms will not be tolerated and consistently apply negative consequences.

3. Set an appropriate tone for the team to mitigate the negative impact of inaction.

Set clear expectations for appropriate organizational conduct and encourage employees to voice unpleasant work experiences while also addressing employees’ concerns.

Managers must recognize that “with great power comes great responsibility.” Fulfilling managerial obligations is critical to support employees as well as avoid negative implications for managers and organizations. Action, even if it is not perfect, can enable managers to fulfil their responsibilities and help create workplaces where people feel safe and valued.

Christine C. Hwang receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

Laurie J. Barclay receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

Daniel L. Brady and Robert J. Bies do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

What has — and hasn’t — changed in the way news addresses sexual violence

2025-12-17T15:33:12Z

Despite decades of commitments to gender equality, women remain marginalized in news media. According to the latest report of the Global Media Monitoring Project (GMMP) — the largest research study on gender equality in the media — women constitute only 26 per cent of news subjects and sources.

This imbalance is especially concerning in Canada where local news outlets are increasingly shuttered and national newsrooms continue to shrink. As such, whose voices make it into the headlines matters now more than ever.

The problem, however, is not only underrepresentation but also misrepresentation. The GMMP report notes news stories that challenge simplistic, widely held beliefs about women and men are rare, indicating that gender stereotyping in news coverage is more pronounced than at any point in the past 30 years.

Equally alarming is the finding that stories of gender-based violence seldom make the news. In fact, fewer than two out of every 100 news articles, and only a third of these, focus on sexual assault and harassment against women.

These findings challenge the myth of post-feminism in 21st-century media and raise important questions such as:

How do journalists cover cases of sexual violence?
Whose views and voices are heard?
And what has changed, if anything, since the #MeToo movement, which sparked an outpouring of stories of sexual assault, increased reporting and heightened public dialogue on the issue?

Our research explored these questions.

Examining sexual assault reporting after 2017

We analyzed news articles published after the viral spread of the #MeToo hashtag in 2017. We examined how Canadian news media report, portray and comment on sexual violence, primarily its causes, contexts and consequences.

The results are mixed.

On the one hand, there has been increased recognition of sexual violence as a widespread social problem.

On the other hand, news coverage remains fraught with sympathetic portrayals of perpetrators, skepticism toward victims/survivors and a reluctance to contextualize sexual violence within broader gender norms and inequities.

This creates a paradoxical picture, where the integration of feminist ideas and the much-discussed “narrative shift” — a transformation in how the public perceives and discusses sexual violence that moves from silence and stigma to validation and demands for accountability — that remains inconsistent.

Subtle language choices reinforce old myths

Our key finding is that news coverage still reinforces false, stereotypical beliefs about rape, rape victims and rapists that minimize, deny or justify sexual violence, often shifting blame from the perpetrator to the survivor.

Although victim-blaming and “overt sexism” seem to finally be diminishing in prevalence, news articles continue to cast doubt on the credibility of victims’/survivors’ accounts. This helps sustain the myth of false allegations and of the lying (female) victim.

In our study, the term “allege” and its derivatives appeared 525 times across 106 out of 162 articles, and words like “accuse” and its variations were used 240 times across 72 articles. While such language reflects legitimate legal precautions, its repeated and unexamined use in sexual violence reporting can shift attention away from victims’ experiences.

We also found that news coverage often casts perpetrators in a positive light, underscoring, for example, their social status even when it adds little to the case.

Across our pool of samples, accused perpetrators were described in flattering ways including “a top pain specialist during his four decades at Toronto Mount Sinai Hospital,” “the biggest stars of the Canadian entertainment industry” and “one of the wealthiest and most famous soccer players in the world.” These portrayals feature successful careers and draw attention to credentials and accomplishments.

Given the incorrect societal perception that high-status individuals are less likely to commit sexual assault, this complimentary language is problematic.

The consequences of selective storytellling

Our research shows that news articles tend to give the most attention to high-profile cases involving popular figures or celebrities.

While this selective focus often reflects the media outlets’ strategies to boost readership, it has real consequences. It shapes which stories get told and which do not, leaving many ordinary yet equally important cases without coverage.

This unequal attention can make sexual violence seem like an issue confined to a few “high-profile” settings such as film sets, business corporations or professional sports.

In doing so, it risks overlooking the fact that sexual victimization affects people across all backgrounds, with low-income, Indigenous and racialized women being at higher risk. It also echoes long-standing critiques of #MeToo for centring the experiences of white, affluent, young and able-bodied women, and lacking an intersectional perspective.

This can be mitigated through small but intentional efforts such as explicitly addressing known inequities in reporting.

Toward more responsible journalism

Prior research noted that news coverage relied heavily on political and criminal justice officials when relaying crime stories, including gender-based violence. Our research shows this is starting to change.

Notably, we are starting to hear from the victims/survivors, who have largely been left out from media accounts for being “unreliable narrators and testifiers.” This is significant as it sheds light on the firsthand experiences of the victims/survivors.

Our work, however, suggests that reporting on sexual violence remains inconsistent.

One significant observation is that even the articles that recognize the lasting impact that sexual violence has on victims/survivors tend to fail to provide support-service information. Only 10 out of the 162 articles in our study included such information. This is concerning given the significant positive impact that victim services have for victims/survivors and the media’s role in raising awareness on this topic.

It is timely to call for more news coverage that is not only accurate and reliable but also socially conscious and gender-equitable.

Editorial guidelines, for example, recommend using specific language that reflects the violating nature of sexual assault and avoids euphemisms like “inappropriate behaviour,” “sex scandal” or “sexual incident” to describe it.

This work is particularly important as the news remains the place Canadians turn to for information that they trust the most.

What Canada’s public sector voting divide could mean for future elections

2025-12-15T23:49:58Z

The Liberal government’s recent budget aims to reduce the size of the federal public service by around 40,000 positions, which is roughly 10 per cent of the workforce. The government argues that the size of the public service has swelled to an unsustainable level.

Needless to say, federal public sector workers cannot relish this prospect.

Two Conservative and two NDP members abstained on the budget vote in order to avoid another election. But in their public responses to the budget, New Democrats have emphasized concern over the cuts by expressing their hesitation about supporting it.

This decision could have significant electoral consequences in that it may drive public sector workers away from the Liberal Party of Canada to the NDP in the next election.

Deep divide?

A conventional understanding of Canadian politics suggests a stark divide between public sector workers who support expanding the welfare state and private-sector employees who oppose that.

A Conservative-leaning pundit has portrayed contemporary Canadian politics as a battle between a “public class, who live on the avails of taxation, and a private class, who pay the taxes.” The “public class” in this instance is largely made up of public sector workers who “would welcome an expansion of the state, which would benefit their class.”

In a recent paper published in the Canadian Review of Sociology, we studied the political divide between Canadian public and private-sector workers.

We identified a sectoral divide whereby public sector workers are distinctly less likely to vote for the Conservatives than other parties. The graphs below show how being in the public sector has on impact on whether someone votes for the Conservatives, Liberals or NDP versus the two other parties combined since the 1960s.

Sectoral status seems to have the largest impact on NDP support, rather than the Liberals. But one feature of our analysis shows that increased support for the NDP and the Liberals is primarily — although not exclusively — attributable to the fact that the public sector is heavily unionized.

Effectively, non-unionized public sector workers demonstrate a weaker proclivity to support the Liberals and the NDP.

This is curious and complicates some of the stark commentary on the divide between public and private sector workers. If public sector workers were so interested in choosing a party out of self-interest, they would presumably support the federal Liberals because of their greater electability, rather than the NDP, who rarely exercise influence at the federal level.

Left-leaning attitudes

Overall, our data says something about motivation: public sector voters in Canada are more inclined to support the NDP and the Liberals — not necessarily out of self-interest to expand their budgets or increase their salaries, but because they have political attitudes more to the left than their private sector counterparts.

We show this from the information illustrated below, which shows the average support for four different types of socio-economic policies: publicly delivered child care; a government role in creating jobs, increased wealth redistribution from rich to poor and increased spending on welfare.

These data points were amassed from the Canada Election Studies from 1993 to 2019, and report support for these policies by class and sector of employment.

What’s striking about this chart is that on all four measures, public sector managers and professionals are more left-wing than their private sector counterparts.

But there is virtually no difference in the policy preferences at the level of working or routine non-manual classes. By contrast, if we run the same analysis with measures on social or cultural issues, we find almost no difference between public and private sector employees.

So the public and private sector divide in Canada today exists in some small measure because higher-class public sector workers are more left-wing economically than their higher-class private sector counterparts.

Hope on the horizon for the NDP?

We also examined whether public sector employees vote at higher rates. If public sector workers were interested in voting for the left in order to maximize their budgets, presumably, they would vote at greater rates overall.

But we found that public and private sector employees vote at roughly the same rate.

Overall, we find that there is in fact a sectoral divide in Canada. Public sector workers in Canada tend to vote Liberal or NDP. However, they do so primarily because of their more left-wing attitudes toward economic policy and redistribution, not necessarily only because of narrower interests related to job security.

The Liberal government’s intention to reduce the size of the federal public service could very likely drive some of their voters back to the NDP in the next federal election.

Matt Polacko receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).

Peter Graefe has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is a research fellow at the Broadbent Institute.

Simon Kiss receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council for research into the New Democratic Party and is a longtime member of the NDP.