ISS Debris Avoidance Manoeuvre of 3 July 2020

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ROSCOSMOS has announced that the International Space Station (ISS) had to make an unscheduled orbit adjustment (a debris avoidance manoeuvre)  at 18:53 Moscow Time (15:53 UT) on July 3, in order to dodge a piece of space debris. The rocket engine of the Progress MS-14 cargoship attached to the ISS were used for the manoeuvre, burning 100 seconds giving the ISS a delta V of 0.5 m/s. The ISS orbit was raised by about 900 meters as a result.

The brief bulletin did not identify which piece of space debris was dodged. Using COLA, I could however identify it as object 27923 (1987-079AG), a piece of debris from the Russian Proton rocket that launched the Kosmos 1883 GLONASS satellite on 16 September 1987.

One of the rocket stages from this launch shed some 31 pieces of debris in 2003, most of which decayed rapidly. The object that necessitated the July 3 ISS manoeuvre is one of the larger, and one of the few remaining shed pieces on-orbit. It is is a very eccentric, 350 x 4454 km, 64.9 degree inclined orbit (it's apogee has come down considerably over the past 17 years, from almost 20 000 km in 2003). The CSpOC catalogue characterizes its size as 'medium' (i.e. an RCS of 0.1 - 1.0 m²).

Had the ISS not changed it's orbit, this piece of space debris would have made a pass to a nominal distance of ~0.5 km at 18:28:19.07 UT on July 3. Note that this is a nominal value based on two TLE's: so there is a possible error of 1-2 km. But it is clear that this larger piece of debris would have passed well within the 4 x 4 x 10 km safety box around the ISS, necessitating the debris avoidance manoeuvre.

COLA output:

DATE       UT            RANGE   dALT    ANGLE
3 Jul 2020 18:28:09.07   0.5     0.1     107.1

The encounter would have occurred at 436 km altitude over the south Atlantic some 600 km northeast of the Falklands, near 48.1 S,  51.7 W (see illustration above and movie below).

ISS debris avoidance manoeuvres like this are not very frequent: it happens maybe once per 1-2 years.

More flashes from the Iridium 33 wreckage

Yesterday evening, after observing the exciting ISS-Shuttle duo pass (see previous post), I tried to observe flashes from the Iridium 33 wreckage (97-051C) again. Simone had provided some experimental predictions and asked for verification.

The Iridium 33 wreckage did flare: two very bright flashes (both around mag. -1) seen naked eye, and two fainter ones (+4?) found on a photograph. They were off from the experimental predictions, but still cool!

The two -1 naked eye flashed were observed at 17 March, 20:06:56 ± 1s and 20:07:02 ± 5sUTC. The two photographic fainter flashes/glints occurred at 20:07:15.7 and 20:07:20.4 UTC. The time between the latter two is 4.7 seconds, and the first two (the naked eye ones) within their timing uncertainties fit a similar 4.7 second period.

The image with the two faint photographic flashes is below:

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Iridium 33 wreckage photographed, with +4 glint

This evening was quite clear, and I decided to employ my new Canon EF 100/2.8 USM Macro lens to image a pass of the Iridium 33 main wreckage (97-051C). This lens has a bigger aperture than the EF 50/2.5 Marco I normally use, and hence is better for faint objects.

I was lucky and not only captured the very faint, irregular trail of the Iridium 33 wreckage: but also a short glint to mag. +4 at about 19:29:51 UTC (15 March), which I also observed with the naked eye.

The image is below. The inset shows the short glint, close to the end of the trail.

(click image to enlarge)

A close call for the ISS

Shortly after the collision of Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251, the news agencies are buzzing with a close call of the International Space Station and a piece of space debris. Astro/Kosmonauts in the station shortly evacuated to their Soyuz re-entry capsule for safety reasons.

The piece of space debris in question was 93-032D (25090), a piece of a PAM-D rocket engine, part of the launch of the Navstar 32 GPS satellite on 13 May 1993. It is small, but even small can be lethal to the ISS. The nominal orbits for the ISS and the space debris piece have it pass as close as within 2.4 km of each other at 12 March, 16:39:41 UTC. The close encounter occurred over the southern Atlantic, near the southernwest coast of Africa.

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Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251 wreckages observed

I visually observed the main wrecks of both Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251 with the Meade ETX-70 (7 cm F5 refractor) this evening.

The Iridium 33 wreckage (24946, 97-051C) was easy to see and notably irregular in brightness, with many short flashes (several per second, with a brighter one approximately each second. This is an estimate: I did not time them). I observed it as it passed close to Pollux near 19:55:10 UTC (11 March). At its brightest it might have been +6 or +6.5. I did not observe the kind of bright flares as reported by Simone from Italy yesterday.

The Kosmos 2251 wreckage (22675, 93-036A) was much fainter, about +8 at its brightest as it passed close to alpha Uma at 20:11:30 UTC. It too was irregular, but its brightness variation seemed slightly slower than that of the Iridium 33 wreckage.

I also observed Lacrosse 3 in twilight and got 6 positions on it.

Aftermath of a space collision

Over 200 fragments of the Feb 10th collision between Kosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 have now been catalogued. Together, they form two impressive orbital planes filled with debris. The amount of Kosmos 2251 debris catalogued so far is about twice as large as that for Iridium 33 - it seems the Kosmos took the most serious blow.

Most of this debris will stay up for tens of years. About 6% of the Kosmos and 3% of the Iridium debris will decay in the next 2.7 years.

(click images to enlarge)

Feb 15 Texas-Nebraska daylight fireball was NOT satellite debris

Sightings of a bright daylight fireball seen from Texas to Nebraska on February 15th, have been widely reported in the press.

Contrary to what the FAA appears to be stating, this was definitely NOT debris from the collision between the Iridium 33 and Kosmos 2251 satellites on February 10th.

Video footage of the fireball (see below) shows that it moved clearly too fast for that, and was of too short duration, to be decaying satellite debris. In stead it is in line with a meteoritic fireball (asteroidal debris).

There is a clear difference in speed between the two categories: asteroidal/cometary debris moves at at least 11 km/s (and usually much faster) and typically lasts only a few seconds (as this fireball did). Satellite debris decaying moves at 7.5 to 8 km/s, so clearly slower, and typically has a much longer duration (due to the slower speed, but also because it enters at shallow angles). The video footage is incompatible with the appearance of decaying satellite debris. It is completely compatible with a meteoric fireball (asteroidal debris).

In Memoriam: Iridium 33

On 10 February 2009 at 16:56:00 UTC, Iridium 33 (97-051C) collided in orbit with the defunct Russian Kosmos 2251 satellite (93-036A). The collision occurred at 789 km altitude over the Siberian arctic, near 97.9 E, 72.5 N, with an orbital interception angle of 83.5 degrees. A cloud of rapidly spreading debris is now all that remains.

The collision occured at roughly the same altitude as the Chinese ASAT test on Fengyun 1C, and the resulting scenario for the debris cloud will be roughly similar to the latter event. An analysis of the Fengyun 1C debris field formation by Kelso can be read here.

On May 18th 2007, when Iridium 33 was still happy, alive and flaring, I shot the picture below:

(click image to enlarge)