A new test attempt of the LRHW hypersonic missile from Cape Canaveral

click map to enlarge

 

A few days ago, Navigational Warnings (NAVAREA IV 1030/23) were published that point to a new test launch attempt of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) from Cape Canaveral in the period 6 - 8 September 2023.

The Navigational Warning delineates seven hazard zones which, just like for the scrubbed test in March, delineate a signature "forked" trajectory (see map above):

041402Z SEP 23
NAVAREA IV 1030/23(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 061400Z TO 081841Z SEP
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-30.57N 080-33.08W, 28-30.00N 080-27.00W,
      28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W,
      28-22.00N 080-21.00W, 28-25.18N 080-34.79W.
   B. 28-04.00N 078-49.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
      27-43.00N 076-32.00W, 27-31.00N 076-31.00W.
   C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-22.00N 079-09.00W,
      28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-04.00N 078-49.00W,
      28-03.00N 079-12.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W.
   D. 23-00.00N 060-00.00W, 20-30.00N 060-00.00W,
      22-00.00N 063-00.00W, 24-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   E. 28-30.00N 060-00.00W, 26-00.00N 060-00.00W,
      25-00.00N 063-00.00W, 27-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   F. 28-00.00N 056-00.00W, 30-00.00N 042-30.00W,
      32-00.00N 042-30.00W, 30-00.00N 056-00.00W.
   G. 19-00.00N 057-00.00W, 11-30.00N 041-00.00W,
      13-30.00N 041-00.00W, 21-00.00N 057-00.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 081941Z SEP 23.

Launch is likely from a TEL on Cape Canaveral pad 46.

The hazard areas are very similar to, but not exactly the same  as, those for the scrubbed March test (areas fro that scrubbed test marked in red in the comparison map below):

click map to enlarge

Meanwhile, at the other side of the United States, a routine test launch of an unarmed  Minuteman-III ICBM from Vandenberg in California to the Reagan Test Range on Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands is also planned for 6-7 September 2023 UTC, according to both a Vandenberg Space Force Base news bulletin and Navigational Warnings published:

click image to enlarge

 

The hazard zones in the map above come from these two Navigational Warnings:

292100Z AUG 23
NAVAREA XII 597/23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 06 THRU 07 SEP DAILY:    
   A. 0631Z TO 1337Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-38.00 N 121-23.00 W, 34-38.00 N 120-52.00 W,
      34-44.00 N 120-35.00 W, 34-55.00 N 120-35.00 W,
      34-56.00 N 120-57.00 W, 34-56.00 N 121-22.00 W.
   B. 0631Z TO 1326Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-20.00 N 124-33.00 W, 34-35.00 N 124-35.00 W,
      34-52.00 N 122-01.00 W, 34-37.00 N 121-59.00 W.
   C. 0631Z TO 1326Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      32-36.00 N 136-04.00 W, 32-49.00 N 136-08.00 W,
      33-01.00 N 135-05.00 W, 32-48.00 N 135-02.00 W.
   D. 0631Z TO 1431Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      13-17.00 N 173-49.00 E, 13-36.00 N 174-20.00 E,
      13-16.00 N 174-33.00 E, 12-57.00 N 174-01.00 E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 081531Z SEP 23.


282325Z AUG 23
HYDROPAC 2811/23(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 060700Z TO 061411Z SEP,
    ALTERNATE 070700Z TO 071411Z SEP
    IN AREAS:
   A. 09-16.00N 167-22.00E, 09-23.00N 167-33.00E,
      09-34.00N 167-26.00E, 09-43.00N 167-33.00E,
      10-09.00N 168-13.00E, 09-31.00N 168-38.00E,
      09-05.00N 167-58.00E, 09-02.00N 167-47.00E,
      08-58.00N 167-33.00E.
   B. 11-51.00N 171-59.00E, 12-37.00N 171-21.00E,
      12-24.00N 170-59.00E, 11-39.00N 171-22.00E,
      10-53.00N 171-58.00E, 11-05.00N 172-20.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 071511Z SEP 23.

 

UPDATE: 

The Minuteman-III test from Vandenberg to Kwajalein has happened, at 6 sept 2023 8:26 UTC, per a Vandenberg SFB news bulletin. According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, the test involved three reentry vehicles.

UPDATE II:

The test of the LRHW out of Cape Canaveral was aborted, just like earlier in March

A failed US missile test on July 7

 

click to enlarge

In the first week of July, two Navigational Warnings appeared (NAVAREA XII 431/22 and HYDROPAC 1811/22) that indicated an ICBM-type missile test in the Pacific for a multiple day window starting July 7, with launch from Vandenberg AFB in California and target the Reagan Test Site at Kwajalein.

These are the Navigational Warnings in question:

030348Z JUL 22
NAVAREA XII 431/22(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0531Z TO 1234Z DAILY
   07 THRU 11 JUL IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 34-47.00N 120-37.00W, 34-51.00N 120-36.00W,
      34-52.00N 121-25.00W, 34-39.00N 121-25.00W,
      34-40.00N 121-01.00W, 34-47.00N 120-37.00W.
   B. 34-56.00N 123-14.00W, 34-51.00N 123-57.00W,
      34-05.00N 123-49.00W, 34-10.00N 123-06.00W,
      34-56.00N 123-14.00W.
   C. 35-01.00N 124-11.00W, 34-48.00N 126-00.00W,
      33-40.00N 125-47.00W, 33-54.00N 123-59.00W,
      35-01.00N 124-11.00W.
   D. 34-34.00N 128-22.00W, 34-17.00N 130-07.00W,
      33-03.00N 129-49.00W, 33-20.00N 128-05.00W,
      34-34.00N 128-22.00W.
   E. 33-04.00N 136-33.00W, 32-51.00N 137-30.00W,
      31-54.00N 137-11.00W, 32-06.00N 136-15.00W,
      33-04.00N 136-33.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 111344Z JUL 22.


030450Z JUL 22
HYDROPAC 1811/22(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, 070600Z TO 071258Z JUL,
   ALTERNATE 080600Z TO 081258Z JUL
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 09-16.00N 167-22.00E, 09-23.00N 167-33.00E,
      09-32.00N 167-26.00E, 09-37.00N 167-29.00E,
      09-37.00N 167-45.00E, 09-38.00N 168-00.00E,
      09-37.00N 168-03.00E, 09-07.00N 168-05.00E,
      09-05.00N 168-03.00E, 08-56.00N 167-34.00E.
   B. 08-56.00N 163-29.00E, 09-14.00N 165-41.00E,
      09-03.00N 166-19.00E, 08-18.00N 166-49.00E,
      07-25.00N 166-58.00E, 06-18.00N 166-54.00E,
      06-00.00N 165-11.00E, 06-15.00N 164-09.00E,
      07-30.00N 163-18.00E, 08-10.00N 163-12.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 081358Z JUL 22.

The number and geographic locations of the hazard areas indicated to me that this was not a standard Minuteman-III test. In the map below, blue are the hazard areas from the 7 July Area Warnings; red that for a typical Minuteman III test (shown example is the 29 Oct 2020 test). Near California, the number and positions of the hazard areas are clearly different.

click map to enlarge

As it turns out, this indeed was not a Minuteman-III launch, but a test launch of a Minotaur-II with a new experimental reentry vehicle, the Mk21A developed by Lockheed Martin. This warhead is a future  replacement for the W87 warhead on the future LGM-35 Sentinel missile being developed by Northop-Grumman.

The launch at 6:01 UT on July 7, was a failure: according to a press release from Vandenberg, the missile exploded about 11 seconds in flight, starting a fire in the area.

NROL-85: probably NOSS 3-9, a new pair of INTRUDER Naval SIGINT satellites

 

image: Wikipedia

 EDIT (15 & 16 Apr):  the launch of NROL-85 has been postponed by at least two days, 'due to technical difficulties'

EDIT (17 Apr): new launch date is 17 April 2022 13:13 UT

On 15 April 2022, at 13:41 UT (or later) according to a tweet by the NRO, SpaceX will launch NROL-85 for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). The launch will be from SLC-4E at Vandenberg SFB. [edit 16 Apr: launch was postponed to 17 April 13:13 UT]

NROL-85 is almost certainly a pair of NOSS satellites. NOSS stands for Naval Ocean Surveillance System; they are also known under the code name INTRUDER. If correct, the duo would become NOSS 3-9 (the 9th mission of block III). It will probably enter with the designation USA 327 in the CSpOC catalogue (with orbital elements witheld).

NOSS satellites are SIGINT satellites operated by the US Navy. They geolocate shipping on the high seas, by detecting their radio/radar emissions. They always operate in close pairs. The secondary object is usually listed (with orbital elements witheld) as "debris" in the CSpOC catalogue, but this is a ruse that fools nobody: it is a payload too that manoeuvres and keeps a careful constant close distance to the primary satellite.

Information from the launch contract tender for this launch reveals that the mission aims for a semi-major axis of  7500.5 km, an orbital eccentricity of 0.0131, an orbital inclination of 63.535 degrees and an argument of perigee of 190 degrees (i.e. perigee almost on the equator). The listed semi-major axis and eccentricity translate to a 1024 x 1221 km orbit. 

The combination of the 63.5 degree orbital inclination and 1024 x 1221 km orbit strongly points to a NOSS/INTRUDER mission. These typically have an orbital inclination of 63.4 degrees and a semi-major axis of 7485 km, values close to those quoted for NROL-85. If launch is indeed at 13:13 UT on April 17, the resulting orbital plane will be very similar to that of the existing NOSS 3-6 duo (2012-048A and 2012-048P) which was launched in 2012, as can be seen in the figure below. That also lines up with a new NOSS-launch: NOSS-pairs are typically replaced after 10 years on-orbit.

The shift in launch time with date due to the two launch postponements agree with the estimated orbital altitude and orbital plane and matches the nodal precession of a typical NOSS orbital plane.

click image to enlarge

 

The Navigational Warnings for this launch (NAVAREA IV 336/22 NAVAREA XII 228/22 and HYDROPAC 987/22) define a launch direction towards the south-southeast, and agree with the 63.5 degree orbital inclination of the launch contract tender. 

[EDIT: The first NavWarning has been corrected: I initially copied the wrong NavWarning for this post.....]

100706Z APR 22
NAVAREA XII 228/22(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 1150Z TO 1514Z DAILY
   15 AND 16 APR IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 34-41N 120-38W, 34-39N 120-40W,
      34-28N 120-38W, 34-04N 120-17W,
      34-04N 120-05W, 34-19N 120-14W,
      34-39N 120-19W.
   B. 32-03N 118-53W, 32-01N 118-49W,
      30-51N 117-56W, 30-21N 117-39W,
      30-08N 117-47W, 30-11N 118-01W,
      30-32N 118-18W, 31-54N 118-53W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 161614Z APR 22.

100644Z APR 22
HYDROPAC 987/22(22,83).
EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   1425Z TO 1649Z DAILY 15 AND 16 APR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   20-12S 123-30W, 19-00S 119-00W,
   33-48S 109-30W, 36-00S 114-12W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 161749Z APR 22.

 

I have mapped the hazard areas from the Navigational Warnings and the resulting launch trajectory in the map below (the times listed along the trajectory are in UT and for the updated launch date with launch at 13:13 UT (17 April):
 

click map to enlarge

Based on the parameters from the launch contract tender, this is my orbital estimate, valid for launch at 13:41 UT on April 15 updated for launch at 17 April 13:13 UT:

NROL-85                         for launch on 17 Apr 2022 13:13:00 UT
1 70002U 22999A   22107.55069445 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    02
2 70002  63.5350 124.8521 0131000 190.0000 291.3542 13.36458926    04

 

There is an uncertainty of several minutes in pass time in this elset, progressively so after more than one revolution, and some cross-track error is possible. But the elset should be good enough for a plane scan, taking a wide time window around a predicted pass. Be carefull not to misidentify the NOSS 3-6 duo as NROL-85. An elset for NOSS 3-6 can be found here.

If the eventual launch time turns out to be later than 13:13 UT, the elset above can easily be adjusted to match the new launch time using my "TLE from Proxy" software downloadable here.

The Northern hemisphere will see good, fully illuminated evening passes on the day of launch and the days after it, so prospects are good for a quick on-orbit detection after launch.

The Falcon 9 upper stage deorbit is over the southern Pacific, just after the end of the first revolution. The deorbit-burn might be visible from south and/or central Asia.

The launch patch (see top of this post) features a cat, with a tiger as its reflection. The NRO itself explains some of the symbolism in the patch in this way:

"In the NROL-85 patch, the 3 stars represent guidance, protection, and allegiance. The cat represents loyalty and devotion shared among our nation and partners. The tiger in the cat’s reflection demonstrates that while space can be challenging, a determined attitude helps NRO succeed in going"

Given that this is going to be NOSS 3-9, the 9th instance of the Block III NOSS generation, I wonder if the cat was inspired by the proverbial 'nine lives' of cats.

It is possible that a number of other small satellites will be included in this launch as a rideshare.

The NRO press kit for NROL-85 is downloadable here.

FOLLOW-UP POST HERE reporting the first observations of NROL-85 from the evening of April 17. NROL-85 might not be an INTRUDER/NOSS after all!

A SECOND FOLLOW-UP POST HERE, going a bit deeper into various speculations about what the NROL-85 payload might be.

[a small update to this post was made 13 April 2022 09:00 UT, adding a bit more background information]

[an error where I had initially copied the wrong text of a NavWarning into this post was corrected at 13 Apr 20:30 UT - many thanks to the anonymous sharp-eyed reader who noted it!] 

[updated April 15 & 16 to reflect launch postponements] 

[updated 17 Apr 8:45 UT with updated launch trajectory map and orbital plane diagram]

What is NROL-47 and in what orbit will it be launched? [updated twice]

UPDATE 10 Jan 17:25 UT: The launch has been scrubbed due to high altitude winds, and moved one day to Jan 11. New start of launch window is given as 1 pm PST = 20:00 21:00 UT. This means the launch window is shifting, indicating a prefered orbital plane and launch probably right at the start of the launch window.

Update 12 Jan: The launch was again scrubbed yesterday, and is now slated for January 12, 21:00 UT . My remark about a  shifting launch window above was in error, I missed that the Maritime Broadcast Warning window opens somewhat before the actual launch window opens.

Final Update , 12 Jan: NROL-47 successfully lifted off from Vandenberg SLC-6  at 22:11 UT!

Final Update 14 Jan 2018: Amateur observers using radio have located NROL-47 in orbit. It is transmitting in the TOPAZ frequency, 2241.52 MHz. The orbit is still very preliminary but appears to point to ~1100 km orbital altitude and an orbital inclination of ~105-106 degrees. This would identify NROL-47 as a new TOPAZ, but in an orbital plane that differs from the previous four TOPAZ satellites. Due to bad weather at the observing sites of several of our active observers (I was clouded out yesterday evening myself for example), optical observations have not yet been reported.

Hot after the excitement and drama of the Zuma launch (see my previous post), a new classified launch is upcoming on Wednesday January 10, when ULA will launch NROL-47, a classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), on a Delta IV from Vandenberg SLC-6 in California.

From Maritime Broadcast Warnings, the launch window opens at 20:30 UT and closes at 01:26 UT. [edit 1] After a one-day delay due to weather conditions, the launch is now slated to be on the 11th of January with the launch window opening 21:00 UT. The shifting launch window time indicates a launch into a preferred orbital plane, and it is likely that launch will be right at the opening of the launch window. [end of edit 1] [edit 2] This launch was scrubbed as well, and launch is now slated for 12 January 21:00 UT [end of edit 2]

The launch is in Westward direction, into retrograde orbit. This has led some space news websites to assume that the NROL-47 payload is the 5th TOPAZ (FIA Radar) satellite.

But is it? I have some doubts.

If it is TOPAZ 5, then it is clearly a deviation from the previous four launches. The launch hazard zones from published Maritime Broadcast Warnings show that the launch azimuth is different - previous TOPAZ missions all launched into azimuth 220 degrees, but NROL-47 launches into azimuth 200 degrees, a 20 degree difference.

NROL-47 Launch hazard areas (red) compared to the areas of four TOPAZ (FIA Radar) launches
click map to enlarge

This can be clearly seen on the map above, where the NROL-47 hazard zones are in red, and the hazard zones from the four TOPAZ in purple, green, light blue and dark blue. The azimuth and locations of the zones from the four TOPAZ launches are all quite similar, but those of NROL-47 stand out as different.

All the four TOPAZ satellites are in a 123.0 degree inclined retrograde orbit. The NROL-47 launch azimuth results in a retrograde orbit too, but with an orbital inclination of 108.6 degrees, not 123.0 degrees: a 14.4 degree difference.

The orbital altitude aimed for appears to be different too. The four TOPAZ satellites are in 1100 x 1110 km orbits. But the location of the Delta IV Upper Stage de-orbit zone (between South Africa and Antarctica), its shape and the opening time of the window (23:23 UT) points to the NROL-47 payload going into a 1500 km altitude orbit instead.[edit: from the first post-launch radio observations (see update in top of this post), the payload actually appears to be in a ~1100 km orbit, similar to previous TOPAZ: but indeed in a different orbital plane than the previous TOPAZ - end of edit]

estimated trajectory of NROL-47
click map to enlarge

So if this is the 5th TOPAZ launching as NROL-47 on Wednesday, then it is going into a quite different orbit compared to the previous four TOPAZ: different in orbital inclination as well as in orbital altitude.

In theory, the Delta IV rocket could do a "dogleg" and (when launching at 20:30 UT) deliver the NROL-47 payload into the 123.0 degree inclined orbit close to the orbital plane of TOPAZ 1 (FIA Radar 1). A second manoeuvre near the south polar pass could then align the RAAN and bring it exactly into the orbital plane of TOPAZ 1.

But why do that, if previous TOPAZ launches simply launched directly into the 123.0 degree inclination orbit?

So in my view, the jury is still out regarding the identity of NROL-47. It could be a 5th TOPAZ but in a quite different orbit compared to the previous four (in itself possible: the Lacrosses also occupied two different orbital inclinations). It could also be something new. If something new, it likely will be a radar satellite (like TOPAZ), given the retrograde character of the orbit. [edit - from radio observations, it appears to be a TOPAZ, but in a different orbital p;lane than the earlier TOPAZ -end of edit]

orbital constellation of TOPAZ 1, 2, 3 and 4 in 123.0 degree inclined orbits
The orbits are spaced 90 degrees in RAAN
click image to enlarge

The deliberate re-entry of the Upper Stage happens 1.5 revolutions (2h 55m) after launch.

Estimated search orbits, based on a 108.6 degree orbital inclination, are here. New elset estimates for the new launch date and time are here. South Africa will have two visible passes after launch.

An UPDATE on this post, with post-launch imagery of the payload in orbit, is here.

Who knows more about this patch? (updated)

I recently obtained this cool looking patch:

click image to enlarge

All I know is that it is connected to the NRO operations at Vandenberg AFB. Anyone knows a bit more? I have questions such as: what do the 4 + 7 white stars refer to; What does the "PSO - Protecting Satellite Operations" refer to: is it a unit, or some generic statement? Inquiring minds want to know... ;-)

The owl eyes frequently feature in NRO related mission patches (notably, the Lacrosse patches). The four 4-pointed yellow stars likewise frequently occur in classified launch patches from Vandenberg launches. They might or might not be related to the 4th Space Launch Squadron launching Atlas and Delta rockets from Vandenberg. The unit's patch features similar stars:

click image to enlarge

The globe with orbiting satellite, is a version of the NRO symbol.

UPDATE:

I had a communication about this patch with Trevor Paglen. Like me he feels it is probably from some security unit connected to the Vandenberg NRO office.
Together, we came upon the 614th Space Intelligence Squadron as a possible "suspect". In that case, the white stars could refer to the Squadron number: 6 + 1 on the right, 4 on the left = 614.