A Russian Optical Reconnaissance satellite launch from Plesetsk upcoming [UPDATED TWICE]

click map to enlarge

 

(two updates at bottom of post)

Navigational Warnings have appeared that point to a Russian launch from Plesetsk between May 16-26. The direction of launch as indicated by the hazard zones from the Navigational Warnings (see maps above and below), points to launch into a ~97.75 degree inclined Sun-synchronous orbit. This, in turn, points to an IMINT mission, i.e. an optical reconnaissance satellite.

There are two options: another BARS M satellite (BARS M6), or something new. There are indications of the latter. Compared to previous BARS M launches, in addition to hazard zones near the Kola peninsula and Svalbard, there is an extra deorbit zone, in the NE Pacific some 1100 km out of the coast of California. As Bart Hendrickx pointed out, this might indicate the addition of a Fregat upper stage to a Soyuz 2 rocket, something not seen before for launches into SSO from Plesetsk.

Bart Hendrickx thinks it might perhaps concern a launch of three small Razbeg optical reconnaissance satellites.

click map to enlarge

 

Launch window as indicated by the Navigational Warnings is May 16-26, 20:00-23:00 UTC daily. These are the relevant Navigational Warnings (which are plotted in the maps above):

 

NAVAREA XX 062/24
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 2000 TO 2300 UTC
DAILY 16 TO 26 MAY NAVIGATION
PROHIBITED IN TERRITORIAL WATERS
DANGEROUS OUTSIDE IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
70-56-00N 032-04-58E, 70-10-00N 033-40-00E,
69-54-00N 032-40-00E, 70-08-00N 032-04-58E,
70-15-00N 031-50-00E, 70-30-07N 031-50-00E,
70-36-22N 031-43-18E.


111952Z MAY 24
HYDROARC 75/24(42,43).
BARENTS SEA.
SVALBARD.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   2000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 16 THRU 26 MAY
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   76-30.00N 022-00.00E, 75-20.00N 024-40.00E,
   74-50.00N 021-40.00E, 75-50.00N 018-40.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 270001Z MAY 24.


120900Z MAY 24
NAVAREA XII 330/24(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   2000Z TO 2300Z DAILY 16 THRU 26 MAY
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   29-21.00N 126-46.00W, 29-50.00N 128-52.00W,
   24-22.00N 130-24.00W, 23-53.00N 128-15.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 270001Z MAY 24.

Assuming an orbital altitude at ~500 km, this is an approximate orbit guess for launch at the start of the window (the orbital inclination could be off by a few tenths of a degree, and orbital altitude is a guess only):

Russian IMINT                  for launch on 16 May 2024 20:00:00 UTC
1 70000U 24999A   24137.83333333  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    09
2 70000 097.7500 232.3966 0010908 075.7763 325.4205 15.22766913    04

 

UPDATE 1, 17 May 2024:

The launch was at 21:21 UTC (May 16). One single payload (59773, 2024-092A) has so far been catalogued, in a 97.25 degree inclined, 451 x 436 km sun-synchronous orbit. So my pre-launch orbit estimate above was off by 0.5 degrees in inclination and ~50 km in orbital altitude [but: see second update below].

The payload will likely get the designation Kosmos 2576. The orbital altitude is some 53.5 km lower than the typical orbit of a BARS M satellite, indeed suggesting this might be something new. The orbit also doesn't fit well into the existing BARS M constellation

KOSMOS 2576 (yellow) compared to BARS M constellation (white)

UPDATE 2, 19 May 2024:

8 additional objects have now been catalogued (59774 to 59781), making a total of 9. They fall in three/four groups:

GROUP     ORBIT       INC     PERIOD   OBJECTS
I         451 x 435   97.25   93.45    A
II        796 x 780   98.59   100.62   G,H,J
IIIa      552 x 532   97.59   95.52    D,E,F
IIIb      548 x 531   97.59   95.45    B,C

More in a follow-up post, as there might be something more to these orbits....

click to enlarge

An upcoming Russian SSO launch from Plesetsk

click map to enlarge

Navigational Warnings have appeared pointing to an upcoming Soyuz launch from Plesetsk between February 9 and 13.

The direction of the launch suggests a ~97.4-degree inclined Sun-Synchronous Polar Orbit. If I would guess at the payload, it likely is either a BARS-M or a EO-MKA optical reconnaissance satellite, based on the orbital inclination aimed for.

While I initially interpreted this launch as a possible BARS-M launch, the lack of a deorbit area for a 3rd stage might suggest an EO-MKA instead (the EO-MKA's are prototypes of a small optical imaging satellite). Or maybe it is something new altogether.

Here are the Navigational Warnings:

051945Z FEB 24
HYDROARC 10/24(42).
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   70-13.00N 033-11.00E, 70-18.00N 033-49.00E,
   70-12.00N 034-11.00E, 69-54.00N 034-46.00E,
   69-33.00N 034-47.00E, 69-25.00N 034-15.00E,
   69-35.00N 033-37.00E, 69-53.00N 033-05.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.


052111Z FEB 24
HYDROARC 12/24(42,43).
BARENTS SEA.
SVALBARD.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   0600Z TO 0800Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 FEB
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   75-59.00N 021-26.00E, 75-50.00N 022-05.00E,
   75-35.00N 022-47.00E, 75-21.00N 022-52.00E,
   75-15.00N 022-13.00E, 75-24.00N 021-29.00E,
   75-36.00N 020-51.00E, 75-53.00N 020-43.00E.
2. CANCEL HYDROARC 11/24.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130900Z FEB 24.

The map in top of this post shows the two areas plotted: one is just north of Murmansk, the other close to Svalbard. I have not been able to find a matching area for the upper stage deorbit.