NROL-101: probably a HEO mission [or maybe not! See update at bottom]

click map to enlarge

EDIT 4 Nov 2020 22:30 UT: 

post UPDATED with new maps and new value for inclination parking orbit

EDIT 2, 22:50 UT (Nov 4): the launch has been SCRUBBED for at least 48 hours...

EDIT 3, 7 Nov 22: launch is now currently scheduled for 11 Nov, 22:22 UT 

EDIT 4, Nov 13:  NROL-101 cleared the tower at 22:32 UT (Nov 13)

If weather cooperates,ULA will launch NROL-101, a classified payload for the NRO, on November 11 (postponed from November 3 and 4). Based on Navigational Warnings, the launch window is from 22:00 UT (Nov 11) to 02:45UT (Nov 12), with ULA indicating a launch window start at 22:22 UT. 

[ EDIT: eventually, NROL-101 launched on 13 Nov 2020 at 22:32 UT ] 

The launch is from platform 41 on Cape Canaveral, using an Atlas V rocket in 531 configuration (5-m fairing, 3 strap-on boosters, 1 single engine Centaur upper stage). It would have originally flown in 551 configuration but this was changed. It is the first Atlas V flight to feature the new GEM 63 solid fuel strap-on boosters.

This Navigational Warning has appeared in connection to this launch (updated):

062038Z NOV 20
NAVAREA IV 1074/20(GEN).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   112200Z TO 120245Z NOV, ALTERNATE
   122200Z TO 130245Z AND 132200Z TO 140245Z
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-38-50N 080-37-34W, 29-58-00N 079-28-00W,
      29-54-00N 079-21-00W, 29-34-00N 079-36-00W,
      29-15-00N 079-45-00W, 28-36-00N 080-23-00W,
      28-30-57N 080-33-15W.
   B. 30-01-00N 079-33-00W, 31-08-00N 078-36-00W,
      30-54-00N 078-14-00W, 29-47-00N 079-11-00W.
   C. 36-38-00N 073-35-00W, 39-03-00N 071-00-00W,
      38-30-00N 070-13-00W, 36-05-00N 072-46-00W.
   D. 51-37-00N 049-45-00W, 53-32-00N 044-58-00W,
      52-54-00N 044-15-00W, 51-03-00N 049-07-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 140345Z NOV 20.

The launch azimuth from the location of the hazard zones in this Navigational Warning and the initial launch azimuth depicted in a map tweeted by ULA point to an initial lauch into a [value updated] ~56-degree ~57.75 degree inclined orbit:

 

click map to enlarge

However: this is likely only a temporary parking orbit. The 531 rocket configuration has never been used for a launch into LEO so far, but always for launch into GEO. Given the launch azimuth, NROL-101 will certainly not be launched into GEO. 

So either the payload is destined for LEO but unusually heavy or (more likely) the final orbit aimed for is a HEO orbit (also known as a  Molniya orbit) with inclination ~63 degrees, perigee at ~2000 km over the southern hemisphere and apogee near 37 8000 km over the Arctic. [But: see major update at bottom! It might have been MEO rather than HEO, but this remains uncertain!]

A 63-degree inclined Molniya orbit cannot be reached directly from the Cape, because of overflight restrictions. Hence the initial launch azimuth corresponding to a ~58-degree inclined orbit. If NROL-101 goes into a Molniya orbit, it will do a dog-leg some time after launch, or (more likely) coast in a ~58-degree inclined parking orbit for perhaps several hours before being boosted into a Molniya orbit by the Centaur.

This appears to be underlined by the fact that to date (Sunday Nov 1) no Navigational Warnings have been issued for the reentry area of the Centaur upper stage. This could indicate that the upper stage will be left orbiting in a ~2000 x 37 8000 km transfer orbit, or is disposed into a Heliocentric orbit.

The NRO so far launched three kinds of  satellites into HEO orbits:

1) Data communication satellites (SDS);

2) SIGINT satellites (Trumpet FO);

3) combined SIGINT (Trumpet FO) and SBIRS Early warning satellites.

The last SIGINT/SBIRS combination launched into HEO was USA 278, launched in 2017. The last SDS launch into HEO was USA 198 in 2007 (there was also a launch in 2017 but this was into GEO, not HEO). As Ted Molczan pointed out in  a private com, SIGINT launches into HEO usually were done from Vandenberg, SDS launches from Cape Canaveral. So perhaps NROL-101 will carry a new SDS satellite, but this is far from certain. Radio observations after launch might shed some light on both orbit and payload character.

The initial trajectory will take it over NW Europe some 23 minutes after launch, but in Earth shadow, so the pass will not be visible:

click map to enlarge

 

UPDATE 15 Nov 2020 15:20 UT

Around 2:30 UT on Nov 14, four hours after launch, sightings of a fuel venting event were observed from the western USA.

This image tweeted by  Marc Leatham shows the V-shaped cloud in Saggitarius, imaged from Joshua Tree National Park:

🔎**EXPAND**🔍 Early in the evening last night in Joshua Tree, California, I was taking some test shots of the Milkyway. While editing, something popped out at me. If I'm not mistaken, that diffuse V shape must be #NROL101 launched from Florida! @torybruno, Am I right?!? 🔭☄️✨ pic.twitter.com/j2tNAICqji

— Marc Leatham (@quarkmarc) November 14, 2020

There is also allsky imagery of the fuel cloud from Taos, New Mexico (look low at the horizon where the milky way touches the horizon(right side), for a 'moving' piece of Milky Way. This is the fuel cloud):

These sightings lead us to believe that the payload perhaps went into the lower part of MEO, not HEO. This is however (emphasis) not certain at this moment.

The launch sequence then could have been insertion into a LEO parking orbit; an apogee raising burn; a perigee raising/circularization burn bringing it into HEO; and fuel vent/orbit separation burn by the Centaur rocket. That latter event caused the observed fuel cloud, at about 8500 km altitude.

ULA reported 'mission successful' around 1:48 UT. For the launch provider, their mission is completed upon payload separation. 1.48 UT corresponds to a pass through the southern apex of the orbit, suggesting payload separation was at that point. This, in combinbation with the observed Centaur vent, would argue against insertion into HEO but does fit insertion into MEO.

If my guess is correct, then this should be the approximate orbit (orbital position is the approximate position for the time of the Joshus Tree fuel cloud sighting):

click to enlarge

 

Both the Centaur and payload have been catalogued (but without orbital elements) by CSpOC, as #46918 (2020-083A) USA 310 and #46919 (2020-083B) Atlas V Centaur R/B.

If USA 310 indeed went into HEO, then the identity/character of the payload remains a big guess.

Added note, 4 Nov 2020, 21:30 UT: the maps and inclination of the initial parking orbit have been updated based on a map showing the initial trajectory up to fairing jettison tweeted by ULA boss Tory Bruno.

This post benefitted from discussions with Cees Bassa, Scott Tilley, Ted Molczan and Bob Christy.

Imaging a "UFO" (Ultra High Frequency Follow-On)

UFO F2 on 3 March 2016
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The image above is my first image of a UFO...

(* cue X-Files tune *)

No need to call in Mulder, however. The object in the image is a geosynchronous satellite, UFO F2 (1993-056A).

The truth is out there

The acronym 'UFO' in this case does not stand for the classic Unidentified Flying Object. It stands for Ultra High Frequency (UHF) Follow-On, the name of a class of US Navy communication satellites.

The UFO satellite constellation consists of 11 satellites (not all of them operational) in geosynchronous orbit, launched between 1993 and 2003. It serves fleet-wide communication needs for the US Navy (including its submarines, but also Marine units on land). The system is currently being replaced by the newer MUOS constellation (see a previous post) and will gradually be phased out.

UFO satellite constellation on 9 March 2016
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The first launch in the series, the launch of UFO F1 on 25 March 1993 with an Atlas 1 from Cape Canaveral, resulted in a partial failure to reach the intended geosynchronous orbit due to the failure of one of the rocket engines. The second UFO launch, UFO F2, the one imaged above, was the first truely successful launch of this satellite class.

USA 236 on 28 February 2016
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I imaged more geosynchronous objects the past week, taking advantage of clear moonless evenings. The image above shows a star field in Orion in the evening of 28 February 2016, with USA 236 (SDS 3 F7, 2012-033A), an SDS data communications satellite in geosynchronous orbit. These satellites relay data from other US military satellites, optical and radar reconnaissance satellites in Low Earth Orbits such as the KH-11 'Keyhole'/CRYSTAL, Lacrosse (ONYX) and FIA (TOPAZ), to the US.

PAN on 28 February 2016
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I also did my periodic revisit of the enigmatic SIGINT satellite PAN (2009-047A) as well (see image above). PAN is still stable at 47.7 E (see my long-term analysis here), near Yahsat 1B. The image above shows it near that satellite and a number of other commercial communications satellites in an image taken on 28 February 2016.

Mercury 1 r on 3 March 2016
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On Feb 28 and March 3, I recovered Mercury 1 r (1994-054B), the upper stage from the launch of the Mercury 1 SIGINT satellite. We had lost this object for a while, it had not been seen for 153 days when I recovered it. The image above shows it in Hydra on 3 March 2016.

USA 186 on 5 March 2016
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As spring is approaching, the visibility of satellites in Low Earth Orbit is gradually coming back for northern hemisphere observers.  This means we can take over from our lone southern hemisphere observer, Greg. The image above shows the KH-11 'Keyhole'/CRYSTAL optical reconnaissance satellite USA 186 (2005-042A) imaged on 5 March 2016.

Observing Geostationary satellites from Indonesia

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In July-August this year I visited Indonesia, travelling around on the island of Sulawesi and briefly stopping over on Bali on the way back to the Netherlands. It was a special trip, in which I searched for and found the house where my grandparents and father once lived, visited archaeological sites, and in general got  to see wonderful things and got to meet wonderful people.

One of the wonderful things was the night sky - especially at the Togian islands between North and central Sulawesi. A splendid Milky-Way from horizon to horizon (image above), the zodiacal light (image below), and my first good view of the Southern Cross (second image below).

During the stop-over on Bali, I did some limited satellite observations. Geostationary objects that are never visible from the Netherlands and which I normally only get to image using a 'remote' telescope, were the focus.

Unfortunately, the lens I had intended for that purpose, my EF 2.8/100 mm Macro USM, turned out to have been damaged during the trip, to the point that it had become optically clearly faulty. I therefore had to use a decidedly less suited lens, my EF 4.0-5.6/70-300 mm telezoom. As a result, only the brightest geostationary objects did register.

Among the objects that did register were the SDS satellites USA 227 (2011-011A) and USA 155 (2000-080A), the Mentor 2 r/b (1998-029B), and two objects that initially were UNIDS although one of them could later be identified.

The first one was a bright object just north of USA 155, which I earlier had also imaged using a 'remote' telescope. It almost certainly is the communication satellite Milstar 4.

The second UNID was an object in an 7.8 degree inclined GTO  orbit that was clearly trailing in the 30 second exposures (see image below). It does not match any known object. Astrometry and a very approximate orbit for this object are here.

Observing HEO objects

In wintertime at latitude 51 degrees North, satellites in Low Earth Orbit are mostly invisible except for twilight, as all their passes are completely within the Earth shadow.

This season is therefore the season that I focus on HEO and GEO objects. HEO stands for Highly Elliptical Orbit and is almost synonymous with the more informal name 'Molniya orbit', after a class of Russian communication satellites employed in such orbits.

Military SDS COMSAT USA 198 (SDS 3F5), imaged in Cassiopeia on 4 Jan 2014

Satellites in a Molniya orbit have an orbital period of about 2 revolutions per day, an orbital inclination near 63.4 degrees, perigee at a few hundred kilometers altitude over the southern hemisphere and apogee at altitudes near 36000 km over the Arctic. They spend most of their orbital time near their apogee.The 63.4 degree orbital inclination ensures that perigee keeps at a stable position over the southern hemisphere.

US military payloads and 'unknowns' in Molniya orbit

The advantage of a Molniya orbit is that it allows a good, long duration view of high northern latitudes, including the Arctic region, which are not well visible from a geostationary orbit. This is ideal for communications satellites serving these regions, for SIGINT satellites, and other applications (such as infrared ICBM early warning systems, e.g. SBIRS) that benefit from a long 'stare' and good view of high Northern latitudes.

The US military has several systems in a Molniya orbit (see image above): communication satellites (e.g. two components of the SDS system), several SIGINT satellites (TRUMPET and TRUMPET-FO), and components of the SBIRS system (piggybacked on three TRUMPET-FO SIGINT satellites). Identifiable payloads include:

- TRUMPET 1, 2 and 3 (SIGINT);
- TRUMPET-FO and SBIRS USA 184, 200 and 259 (SIGINT and SBIRS);
- SDS COM satellites USA 179 and 198

There are a couple more which we cannot (yet) tie to a specific launch and function (see note at end of post).

Near their apogee, satellites in Molniya orbit are located high in the sky for my location, and because of their high northern position, they are sun-illuminated and hence visible (typically at magnitudes near +9 to +12) even at midnight and in winter. They move very slowly when near apogee, creating tiny trails on the images.

On December 13, the NRO launched (as NROL-35) a new SIGINT and SBIRS platform into a Molniya orbit: USA 259 (see a previous post). It is currently still actively manoeuvering to attain its final orbit, which makes it an interesting object to track. The image below was taken in late twilight of Jan 4, when the satellite was past its apogee and on its way to perigee. It was 4 minutes early against orbital elements based on observations of only a few days old.

SIGINT/SBIRS satellite USA 259 (NROL-35) imaged in Andromeda in the evening of Jan 4

I image these objects with an old but good Zeiss Sonnar MC f2.8/180 mm telelens (made in the former DDR and sturdy -and heavy- as a tank). This lens has a 67 mm aperture at f 2.8, which means it shows faint objects. As these objects move very slowly, the relatively small FOV is no problem. My observational data from January 4th can be found here and here.

Note: the 'unknowns' in the orbital plot above are objects we track that are not in public orbital catalogues and which we cannot tie to a specific launch. Although some of them certainly are, not all of these need to be payloads: some might be spent rocket stages from launches into HEO.

A bounty of GEO satellites on June 21

The night of June 21-22 was clear, and as I had trouble sleeping, I decided to take the short bicycle trip to my secondary site, Cospar 4355. This site is located in the polder only just outside of town, but the sky is better there than at my regular site 4353, which is in the town center (the secondary site is about 2 km south of my regular site). As a result, I can use twice as long exposures, which means I can image fainter GEO satellites than from my regular site. The site, being in a polder, also has less horizon obstruction. Below is a panorama of the site, split up in two parts, each slightly larger than 180 degrees. Azimuth directions are indicated.

Panoramic view at Cospar 4355

I took some 54 picture (20 second exposures with a Canon EOS 60D + SamYang 1.4/85mm at 800 ISO) over the course of an hour. My main focus was on approximately 20-30 degree (1-2 camera fields) wide equatorial areas near azimuth 120-130 deg, 160 deg and 200 deg.

I captured a nice batch of objects: 17 classified objects, two Unknowns (initially four but two got ID-ed as classifieds) and A LOT of unclassified objects. The image in the top of this post shows an only 2.7 degree wide stretch of one image, and look how many objects are already in it.
One of the objects in the image, the defunct Russian military comsat Raduga 1-M1/Kosmos 2434 (2007-058A) was flaring repeatedly in subsequent images (compare also the two images in the top of this post).

The images below show two other swaths of sky only a few degrees wide. Various commercial GEO sats are visible, as well as two old Ariane r/b, of which several were captured this night:

click image to enlarge

It also shows  the British military communications satellite Skynet 5B (2007-0056B).

One of the classified objects captured this night was AEHF 2 (USA 235, 2012-019A), part the new military communications satellite constellation that is gradually replacing the Milsat system. Another object imaged was the SBIRS GEO 2 (2013-011A) satellite, part of the new infra-red Early Warning constellation that is replacing the DSP constellation.

click images to enlarge

The lower of the two images above (it is slightly blurry because it is the edge of the image) also shows one of the initial UNID's of that night, "UNID 2", one that Cees and Ted later identified as the classified Italian military communications satellite Sicral 1 (2001-005A), which has recently been moved to 22 E.

Cees also managed to identify another UNID I imaged that night, "UNID 3":

click image to enlarge

It is the object we amateur trackers designate as Unknown 130929 (2013-772A), an object in a Molniya orbit which was last seen 132 days before my observations (i.e. we temporarily "lost" it). It was over West Africa at an altitude of 1270 km at the time of observation, moving away from perigee:

Two other UNID's of this night remain to be identified. One of these ("UNID 1") appears to be in GTO: the other one ("UNID 4") appears to be in LEO and was very faint.

The image below shows two classified objects (plus several commercial geosats), both US Military communications satellites: USA 236 (2012-033A) and WGS 3 (2009-068A). WGS 3 is the third satellite in the Wideband Global Satcom constellation. USA 236 is a geostationary SDS data relay satellite. It is believed that they notably relay imagery of IMINT satellites in LEO, for example optical imageryby  KH-11 Keyhole/CRYSTAL and radar imagery by Lacrosse and FIA.

click image to enlarge

Mentor 4 and Thuraya 2 change of configuration

A change is occurring in the configuration of Mentor 4 (USA 202, 2009-001A), a huge Mentor /ORION SIGINT satellite, and the commercial communications satellite Thuraya 2. For over 3 years, Mentor 4 was stationed (as seen from my observing location) slightly south of Thuraya 2. On my June 21 imagery, it has moved to slightly North of Thuraya 2. Compare the top image from last June 21 with some images shot in previous years:

21 June 2014:

8 December 2010:

18 November 2012:

29 December 2013:

click images to enlarge

(The first image also shows the still unidentified UNID 1, likely in GTO, and  a classified r/b from another Mentor/ORION launch, Mentor 3 r/b (2003-041B)).

FIA Radar 1 through the Pleiades, and Geostationary satellites in Orion

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The picture above (10s exposure taken with a Canon 450D and SamYang 1.4/85 mm lens) shows the classified military Radar reconnaissance satellite FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) sailing smack through the Pleiades last Friday.

Friday evening started clear, and I took the opportunity do so some observing. Using the SamYang 1.4/85 mm and the Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180mm, I not only obtained the picture of FIA Radar 1 above, but I also targetted some geostationary satellites, imaging several of them in Orion.

Among the targets were the classified military communication satellite Milstar 5 (02-001A), the SDS data relay satellite USA 227 (11-011A) and the SIGINT satellite Mentor 2 (98-029A). Two other classified objects were captured as by-catch of these objects: the SIGINT satellite Vortex 6 (89-035A) and the object "Unknown 110623" (11-674A), an amateur-discovered object in GTO that is probably a spent rocket booster of a military launch. Note how it created a tiny trail in the image below as it was moving northwards through Orion.

The images below show these objects. Milstar 5, Vortex 6, UNK 110623 plus the two non-classified commercial communication satellites Eutelsat W2 (98-056A) and Intelsat New Dawn (11-016A) are all in the same 10-degree wide 85mm image. The stars of Orion's belt are visible in the top of the image, and Milstar 5 is close to the Orion Nebula. Orion's belt stars are visible at left in the Mentor 2 image as well.

click images to enlarge

 

In one of the other images taken last Friday evening, another commercial geostationary communication satellite, Intelsat 4 (95-040A) was captured while it briefly flared brightly at about 18:58:30 UTC (27 Jan).

The FIA radar and a number of geostationary objects (Mentor 2, Mentor 4) and the NOSS 3-3 r/b were imaged by me two weeks earlier as well, observations on January 14 and 15 which I had not reported here earlier. I also tried to relocate PAN, which recently has been relocated again but so far has not been recovered, although both Greg in South Africa and I in the Netherlands have tried.

USA 227/NROL-27 at 30.4 W: a Gryphon in Hydra

NROL-27, a secret NRO payload that is probably an SDS communication satellite (see also here) was launched on 2011 March 11th.

On April 6th, Peter Wakelin made the first observations of the new object. The orbit (by Ted) places it at 30.4 W, over the mid-Atlantic in front of the Brasil coast, in a 5 degree inclined orbit, placing it low in the southwest for me, at an altitude of about 20 to 25 degrees.

click map to enlarge

Yesterday evening was a very clear evening, and based on Ted's preliminary orbit I photographed it, using the Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180 mm.

Below is (a part of) the image. The object, at that time a few degrees northwest of alpha Hydra, is bright and shows up well:

click image to enlarge

Launch patches for NROL-27 can be seen in an older post here.

Note added 12/04/2011: a follow-up discussing a possible relation between the NROL-27 mission patch symbology and the satellite's geographic location can be found here.

NROL-27 patches

NROL-27 is slated to be launched on March 11 on a Delta IV rocket. Two patches have appeared for this classified launch so far, both featuring a Gryphon:

(click images to enlarge)

Some independant analysts believe NROL-27 will be a geostationary SDS satellite. The patches, especially the second one, tend to support that suspicion.

The Latin "Nos Suo Caelum" in the second patch means "We Connect the Heavens". This is exactly what SDS satellites do: they provide an uplink and downlink platform between other (reconnaissance) satellites and their operating centers. The red Dragon in the second patch, might indicate this new SDS will notably serve a role for SIGINT satellites (as historically, dragons in patches signify SIGINT satellites).

The Gryphon, part lion, part eagle, features in both patches. Gryphons guard treasure and possessions, and are symbols of the divine and divine power; strength, military courage and leadership. The "Custos Divini" in the first patch means "Guardian of the Divine".