[UPDATED] A possible Missile Defense Test from Hawaii on October 25-29 (FTM-32?) and another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral

 

click map to enlarge

 [this post was updated 25 Oct 2023 to include an upcoming LRHW test from Cape Canaveral]

 

A Navigational Warning (NAVAREA XII 735/23) has appeared  that suggests a Missile Defense test will take place north of Hawaii with a target launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Kauai, Hawaii, in the last week of October. The window runs from October 25 to 29.

200855Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 735/23(19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
HAWAII.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 251930Z TO 260100Z OCT,
   ALTERNATE 261930Z TO 270100Z,
   271930Z TO 280100Z, 281930Z TO 290100Z OCT
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   22-02.00N 159-47.00W, 22-04.00N 159-52.00W,
   23-52.00N 161-49.00W, 22-37.00N 163-18.00W,
   23-00.00N 164-29.00W, 24-54.00N 164-53.00W,
   27-30.00N 167-44.00W, 29-23.00N 167-44.00W,
   35-17.00N 161-05.00W, 35-46.00N 156-36.00W,
   30-43.00N 152-22.00W, 28-18.00N 152-15.00W,
   27-35.00N 152-48.00W, 26-04.00N 155-40.00W,
   24-19.00N 160-57.00W, 22-09.00N 159-45.00W,
   22-03.00N 159-46.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 290200Z OCT 23.//

In the map above I have plotted the hazard area from the Navigational Warning. The target launch track from PMRF on Kauai can be seen, as well as a large intercept area.

Although not the same, it is riminiscent for that of test FTM-31 E1a of 30 March this year (see a March blogpost) which was a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles from the US Navy ship USS Daniel Inouyeto that intercepted a MRBM target fired from PMRF Kauai.

The upcoming test might be FTM-32  (see page 5 of this Congressional document) which reportedly also will be a salvo firing of two SM-6 missiles against an MRBM target [edit: it was actually FTM-48]. The missiles will be fired from a US Navy Guided Missile Cruiser positioned north of Kauai, perhaps USS Carl M. Levin or USS Kidd, who both were seen sailing out of Pearl Harbor recently.

UPDATE 26 Oct 2023:

The test happened on 25 October and involved the interception of multiple targets. The interception was done by the USS Carl M. Levine (DDG120). Two HALO observing aircraft (HALO2 and HALO51) where in the air during the test, along with a US Navy P3, a USAF aircraft and fifth small aircraft. MDA news item on it here and a Naval News story here. It was test FTM-48 codenamed Vigilant Wyvern. The targets consisted of two SRBM's and two cruise missiles, the first intercepted with two SM-3 missiles, the second with two SM-2 missiles.

The MDA released this image of the test, showing one of two SRBM targets being fired from the PMRF Kauai (and the smoke trail of another one):

image: Missile Defence Agency

 They also published this video:

 [end of update]

 

LRHW Test from Cape Canaveral

Meanwhile, another Navigational Warning, NAVAREA IV 1235/23, is pointing to yet another test of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) from Cape Canaveral on October 26-28:

 

241619Z OCT 23
NAVAREA IV 1235/23(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 261500Z TO
   281840Z OCT.
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 28-32.93N 080-33.90W, 28-28.00N 080-02.00W,
   28-18.00N 080-02.00W, 28-23.00N 080-31.00W,
   28-25.64N 080-34.47W.
B. 28-02.00N 078-50.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
   27-55.00N 077-24.00W, 27-40.00N 077-27.00W.
C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-24.00N 079-09.00W,
   28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-02.00N 078-50.00W,
   28-00.00N 079-12.00W, 28-18.00N 080-02.00W.
D. 27-00.00N 063-00.00W, 28-00.00N 059-00.00W,
   27-00.00N 059-00.00W, 26-00.00N 063-00.00W.
E. 23-30.00N 063-00.00W, 21-30.00N 058-30.00W,
   20-30.00N 058-30.00W, 22-30.00N 063-00.00W.
F. 28-45.00N 049-00.00W, 30-45.00N 049-00.00W,
   32-00.00N 044-00.00W, 30-00.00N 044-00.00W.
G. 17-00.00N 048-45.00W, 13-30.00N 041-30.00W,
   11-30.00N 041-30.00W, 15-00.00N 048-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 281940Z OCT 23.

click map to enlarge

Two earlier LRHW test attempts, in March (see this blogpost) and in September (see this blogpost) were aborted. Maybe third time is a charm.

UPDATE: this LHRW test was scrubbed as well.

A new test attempt of the LRHW hypersonic missile from Cape Canaveral

click map to enlarge

 

A few days ago, Navigational Warnings (NAVAREA IV 1030/23) were published that point to a new test launch attempt of the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) from Cape Canaveral in the period 6 - 8 September 2023.

The Navigational Warning delineates seven hazard zones which, just like for the scrubbed test in March, delineate a signature "forked" trajectory (see map above):

041402Z SEP 23
NAVAREA IV 1030/23(GEN).
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 061400Z TO 081841Z SEP
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-30.57N 080-33.08W, 28-30.00N 080-27.00W,
      28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W,
      28-22.00N 080-21.00W, 28-25.18N 080-34.79W.
   B. 28-04.00N 078-49.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
      27-43.00N 076-32.00W, 27-31.00N 076-31.00W.
   C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-22.00N 079-09.00W,
      28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-04.00N 078-49.00W,
      28-03.00N 079-12.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W.
   D. 23-00.00N 060-00.00W, 20-30.00N 060-00.00W,
      22-00.00N 063-00.00W, 24-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   E. 28-30.00N 060-00.00W, 26-00.00N 060-00.00W,
      25-00.00N 063-00.00W, 27-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   F. 28-00.00N 056-00.00W, 30-00.00N 042-30.00W,
      32-00.00N 042-30.00W, 30-00.00N 056-00.00W.
   G. 19-00.00N 057-00.00W, 11-30.00N 041-00.00W,
      13-30.00N 041-00.00W, 21-00.00N 057-00.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 081941Z SEP 23.

Launch is likely from a TEL on Cape Canaveral pad 46.

The hazard areas are very similar to, but not exactly the same  as, those for the scrubbed March test (areas fro that scrubbed test marked in red in the comparison map below):

click map to enlarge

Meanwhile, at the other side of the United States, a routine test launch of an unarmed  Minuteman-III ICBM from Vandenberg in California to the Reagan Test Range on Kwajalein in the Marshall Islands is also planned for 6-7 September 2023 UTC, according to both a Vandenberg Space Force Base news bulletin and Navigational Warnings published:

click image to enlarge

 

The hazard zones in the map above come from these two Navigational Warnings:

292100Z AUG 23
NAVAREA XII 597/23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 06 THRU 07 SEP DAILY:    
   A. 0631Z TO 1337Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-38.00 N 121-23.00 W, 34-38.00 N 120-52.00 W,
      34-44.00 N 120-35.00 W, 34-55.00 N 120-35.00 W,
      34-56.00 N 120-57.00 W, 34-56.00 N 121-22.00 W.
   B. 0631Z TO 1326Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-20.00 N 124-33.00 W, 34-35.00 N 124-35.00 W,
      34-52.00 N 122-01.00 W, 34-37.00 N 121-59.00 W.
   C. 0631Z TO 1326Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      32-36.00 N 136-04.00 W, 32-49.00 N 136-08.00 W,
      33-01.00 N 135-05.00 W, 32-48.00 N 135-02.00 W.
   D. 0631Z TO 1431Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      13-17.00 N 173-49.00 E, 13-36.00 N 174-20.00 E,
      13-16.00 N 174-33.00 E, 12-57.00 N 174-01.00 E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 081531Z SEP 23.


282325Z AUG 23
HYDROPAC 2811/23(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 060700Z TO 061411Z SEP,
    ALTERNATE 070700Z TO 071411Z SEP
    IN AREAS:
   A. 09-16.00N 167-22.00E, 09-23.00N 167-33.00E,
      09-34.00N 167-26.00E, 09-43.00N 167-33.00E,
      10-09.00N 168-13.00E, 09-31.00N 168-38.00E,
      09-05.00N 167-58.00E, 09-02.00N 167-47.00E,
      08-58.00N 167-33.00E.
   B. 11-51.00N 171-59.00E, 12-37.00N 171-21.00E,
      12-24.00N 170-59.00E, 11-39.00N 171-22.00E,
      10-53.00N 171-58.00E, 11-05.00N 172-20.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 071511Z SEP 23.

 

UPDATE: 

The Minuteman-III test from Vandenberg to Kwajalein has happened, at 6 sept 2023 8:26 UTC, per a Vandenberg SFB news bulletin. According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, the test involved three reentry vehicles.

UPDATE II:

The test of the LRHW out of Cape Canaveral was aborted, just like earlier in March

A possible (hypersonic?) missile test from Cape Canaveral [UPDATED]

 

click map to enlarge

An odd Navigational Warning, NAVAREA IV 221/23 (text of warning below, areas mapped above), was published on March 1, suggesting a launch from Cape Canaveral with a time window from March 2 tot March 6. The jury is still out on what it is, although opinions are converging on a missile test, possibly a test of the hypersonic LHRW.

010205Z MAR 23
NAVAREA IV 221/23(11,24,25 26,51).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   021700Z TO 062138Z MAR IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-32.88N 080-33.89W, 28-28.00N 080-02.00W,
      28-20.00N 080-02.00W, 28-25.62N 080-34.48W.
   B. 28-04.00N 078-49.00W, 28-11.00N 078-47.00W,
      27-53.00N 077-23.00W, 27-44.00N 077-26.00W.
   C. 28-27.00N 080-02.00W, 28-22.00N 079-09.00W,
      28-11.00N 078-47.00W, 28-04.00N 078-49.00W,
      28-03.00N 079-12.00W, 28-20.00N 080-02.00W.
   D. 27-00.00N 063-00.00W, 28-00.00N 059-00.00W,
      27-00.00N 059-00.00W, 26-00.00N 063-00.00W.
   E. 23-30.00N 063-00.00W, 21-30.00N 058-30.00W,
      20-30.00N 058-30.00W, 22-30.00N 063-00.00W.
   F. 28-45.00N 049-00.00W, 30-45.00N 049-00.00W,
      32-00.00N 044-00.00W, 30-00.00N 044-00.00W.
   G. 17-00.00N 048-45.00W, 13-30.00N 041-30.00W,
      11-30.00N 041-30.00W, 15-00.00N 048-45.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 062238Z MAR 23.

It does not match a scheduled space launch (I initially considered the Terran 1 inaugural launch but noted that the dates do not match) and the seven hazard areas A to G create a pattern with a weird "forked" character, with one leg (A-C-B-E-G) being more or less a straight ballistic trajectory, the other (A-C-B-F-H) suggesting a dog-leg variant.

Twitter user Aerospace001 provided a photograph showing something TEL-like erected at SLC-46:

I think LRHW test. On the left is a photo of SLC-46 at the cape. On the right is a render of the LRHW silo. They look pretty much the same from this angle.

Left Credit: @spacecoast_stve
Right Credit: @LockheedMartin pic.twitter.com/YhIaohOKke

— Aerospace001 (@aerospc001) March 3, 2023

..and the suggestion that this is a test of LRHW, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon under development by the US Army.

Below is a highly simplified reconstruction of what the test might entail, going from the notion that it is a missile test. If it is in fact a hypersonic glider test, the yellow parts of the two trajectory variants might actually look quite different in reality, as such a glider does not follow a ballistic trajectory as depicted, but might manoeuver both in altitude and laterally to the trajectory. 

Both trajectory legs depicted might indicate two variants for the test, possibly at least two test shots.

click map to enlarge

It will be interestingly to see whether or not news on this will follow from the US DoD in the coming days.

More backgrounds on LRHW and this possible test in this article by Tyler Rogoway in the Drive.

UPDATE [6 March 2023 17:05 UTC]:

USA Today reporter Emre Kelly reports on Twitter that DoD sources confirmed a hypersonic test was planned, but that it has been scrubbed.

More also here. Seems a battery issue caused the scrub.