USA 314 (NROL-82) imaged

 

click to enlarge

Last Monday 26 April at 20:47:00 UT, ULA launched a classified payload for the NRO under the launch designation NROL-82. The payload is now designated USA 314. I wrote about the launch and that it is almost certainly an ADVANCED ENHANCED CRYSTAL KH-11 electro-optical reconnaissance satellite in an earlier post.

The payload was picked up on the first orbit by radio observer Scott Tilley in Canada, and next, guided by the radio observations, Cees Bassa (who is just like me in the Netherlands) optically imaged it on the second and third orbit.

Thanks to information from the radio observations, #NROL82 was caught in video observations on its second pass. It passed close to Polaris in the top left of this image at 23:45:30UTC. pic.twitter.com/HB8bSFy84e

— Cees Bassa (@cgbassa) April 27, 2021

 

I tried to image it from Leiden on the second orbit as well, but as it turns out it passed outside my camera field during that pass.

The next night, and with a more firm search orbit based on the data from the previous night available, I did succesfully image it. The photograph in top of this post was made with a Canon EOS 80D camera and Samyang 1.4/85 mm lens (at F2.0, 1600 ISO, 1 second exposure). 

I also obtained video, using the WATEC 902H2 Supreme with a 1.8/50 mm lens:

The payload is designated USA 314 (catalogue nr 48247, COSPAR 2021-032A) and as usual CSpOC does not publish orbital data. But our observations show that it is in a 528 x 755 km, 98.1 degree inclined sun-synchonous orbit.

The orbital plane is even closer to that of USA 224 than anticipated: a difference of only 1.1 degree in RAAN and 0.2 degrees in orbital inclination. The orbital altitude is somewhat different and the orbital eccentricity is less than our initial guess. Perhaps it will manoeuvre over the coming days/weeks to the same altitudes as USA 224, perhaps it will not: we will see!

So in all, the NROL-82 payload's orbit is pretty much what was expected, apart from a slightly different initial orbital altitude.

USA 224 and the new payload USA 314 currently move almost in phase, and as a result they are relatively close, with continuous sight of each other. It is well possible that USA 224 is imaging the new payload as a post-launch health checkup.

The image below shows the coplanar character of the USA 224 and USA 314 orbits, and the spatial proximity in viewing distance of each other:

click to enlarge

As I pointed out in a previous post, based on historical patterns I expect that, after a checkout-phase that may take a couple of weeks, the new USA 314 will take over from USA 224 in the KH-11 primary East orbital plane. USA 224 will then likely be manoeuvered into a lower orbit (~400 km) and its orbital plane will be moved to the 'secondary' East plane, some 10-20 degrees east in RAAN of the current orbital plane.

NROL-82: an upcoming new KH-11 EVOLVED ENHANCED CRYSTAL launch [UPDATED]

image: ULA

(updated 27 Apr 2021 with first observational orbit, see end of post)

If the weather and the launch Gods cooperate, ULA will launch a Delta IV Heavy with a classified payload for the NRO on 26 April 2021. The launch is designated NROL-82 and the payload will likely receive the designation USA 314. In a tweet from April 19, ULA mentions a prospective launch time of 20:46 UT.

Several lines of evidence lead us to believe that the payload is a KH-11 EVOLVED ENHANCED CRYSTAL optical reconnaissance satellite, colloquially also known as a 'Keyhole'. It is the kind of satellite that makes these kind of detailed pictures of areas of interest for the NRO.

A map in the ULA Mission Overview for this launch, and the Navigational Warnings issued for this launch (NAVAREA XII 173/21 and HYDROPAC 1221/21) provide information on the launch azimuth and from that the orbital inclination targetted. Likewise the position and time window of the upper stage deorbit area provides - in a very broad sense- information on the orbital altitude aimed for. Together they indicate a launch into a sun-synchronous Low Earth Orbit with an orbital inclination near 98 degrees. This is a very familiar orbit, as we will discuss later in this post.

Below is a map I prepared depicting the hazard areas from these Navigational Warnings as well as the launch trajectory I calculate based on this information:

click map to enlarge

The listed times along the track are for launch at 20:46 UT into the 250 x 1020 km, 97.9 degrees inclined estimated orbit below:

 NROL-82 (USA 314)          for launch on 26 April 2021 at 20:46:00 UT
1 70002U 21999A   21116.86527778  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
2 70002 097.8600 222.0898 0548970 157.1680 337.2110 14.78203944    02

 

The text of the Navigational Warnings:

220434Z APR 21
NAVAREA XII 173/21 (also: HYDROPAC 1221/21)
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS:
   A. 2016Z TO 2257Z DAILY 26 THRU 28 APR
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-38N 120-40W, 34-36N 120-30W,
      34-07N 120-39W, 34-08N 120-44W.
   B. 2016Z TO 2257Z DAILY 26 THRU 28 APR
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      22-57N 120-46W, 23-47N 125-18W,
      26-27N 124-45W, 25-36N 120-08W.
   C. 2016Z TO 2257Z DAILY 26 THRU 28 APR
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      13-28S 121-20W, 10-47S 138-34W,
      00-47S 136-41W, 03-52S 119-54W.
   D. 2253Z TO 0029Z COMMENCING DAILY
      26 THRU 29 APR IN AREA BOUND BY
      63-14S 174-16W, 32-49S 159-58W,
      33-23S 156-28W, 64-16S 168-07W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 300129Z APR 21.

 

Area D from the Navigational Warnings, located in the southern Pacific Ocean, appears to be the deorbit area for the Delta Cryogenic Second Stage (DCSS). The DCSS deorbit takes place some two hours after launch, just after the start of the second revolution (with the deorbit burn happening over the Arctic, near the end of the first revolution).

As mentioned above, the orbit that seems to be targetted is one that is very familiar in terms of orbital inclination and sun-synchronous character. It is the typical orbit of a KH-11 EVOLVED ENHANCED CRYSTAL electro-optical reconnaissance satellite. Several years ago I discussed the KH-11 orbital constellation in depth on this blog ("Past and future of the KH-11 Keyhole/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL constellation" - 2013). As a side note, the type of rocket used to launch NROL-82 is consistent with a KH-11 launch too: the Delta IV Heavy has a long history of launching KH-11's.

Currently there are at least three, and possibly four active KH-11 satellites on orbit: USA 186 (2005-042A), USA 224 (2011-002A), USA 245 (2013-043A), and possibly USA 290 (2019-004A).  The latter, USA 290, is in an odd orbit for a KH-11 and its identification as a KH-11 is open to questioning (I will discuss this later in this blog post).

Historically (see "Past and future of the KH-11 Keyhole/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL constellation"), new KH-11 satellites are launched into one of two primary orbital planes some 48 degrees apart in RAAN: a "primary East" plane and a "primary West" plane. The time window and the 20:46 UT launch time given by ULA for the upcoming April 26 launch corresponds well with targetting the "primary East" plane. This orbital plane results in passes around local noon and midnight. The KH-11 satellite currently occupying this orbital plane is USA 224 launched 10 years ago in 2011.

 

USA 224 imaged in June 2014. click image to enlarge

KH-11 constellation (minus USA 290), situation mid-April 2021 (polar view). Click to enlarge

 

The orbital plane of USA 224 passes over the launch site of NROL-82, Space Launch Complex 6 (SLC-6) at Vandenberg Air Force Base, around 21:20 UT on April 26. This is a difference of some 35 minutes with the launch time (20:46 UT) from the ULA tweet.

In 2011, when USA 224 itself was launched to replace USA 161 in the primary East plane, the launch occurred some 20 minutes before the USA 161 orbital plane crossed over the launch site (a similar time difference would hence see launch around 21:00 UT for the upcoming April 26 launch).

If history is our guide, the following sequence of event will likely happen. To start with, NROL-82 will be launched into the KH-11 Primary East plane, with an orbital inclination of ~97.9 degrees and orbital altitude of ~250 x 1020 km, almost co-planar with USA 224. The illustration below shows the orbital plane situation around orbit insertion. Note the similarity of the orbital planes of NROL-82 and USA 224:

 

expected situation just after launch of NROL-82. click to enlarge

 

After a check-out period of a few weeks, the NROL-82 payload (likely designated USA 314) will take over the primary plane mission from USA 224, the satellite previously occupying this orbital plane. 

Next, after USA 314 has taken over its role, USA 224 will be moved away from the primary plane, into a new orbital plane with RAAN some 10-20 degrees East of the primary plane: the so called '"secondary East plane". It will also lower its apogee and take up a ~400 km altitude orbit. In this new orbit it will continue to be operational for several years, entering its extended mission phase. 

From this moment on, for the first time since the deorbit of USA 161 in the winter of 2014-2015, all the two primary planes and all the two secondary planes will be occupied by a KH-11 again. The orbital constellation will become something like that in the image below:

Approximate KH-11 constellation after expected rearrangement later this year. Click to enlarge

 

How about USA 290?

You will have noted that after a brief initial mention, I carefully left USA 290, launched in 2019, out of the discussion so far. So what about that object? Is it a KH-11?

USA 290 (2019-004A) was launched as NROL-71 from Vandenberg on a Delta IV Heavy on 19 January 2019 (see an earlier blogpost) and it was suspected by some noted analysts to be a KH-11. It however went into a weird, 73.6 degree inclined ~400 km altitude orbit that is not sun-synchronous and nothing like previous KH-11 orbits. So, had the NRO broken with the previous 'classic' pattern of the KH-11 orbital constellation and were they trying something new?

The identification of  USA 290 as a KH-11 never has been sitting well with me. The odd orbital inclination and non sun-synchronous character of the orbit gives few reasons to think it is an IMINT mission.

In light of the apparent return to the known 'classic' KH-11 constellation with the upcoming launch of NROL-82, I have again started to foster these doubts. Maybe USA 290 isn't a KH-11 after all but something else, something experimental (readers of this blog will have noted that the past 4-5 years, a lot of NRO launches appear to be experimental, going into 'new' previously unseen types of orbit. Some of these are, I suspect, radar imaging satellites).

Ted Molczan has recently suggested that USA 290 is a KH-11, and that its odd orbit is inspired by that of the notorious 'Misty' stealth IMINT satellites of the 1990-ies which were launched in ~65 degree orbits. Basically, he argues that USA 290 is a 'Misty' imaging satellite without the stealth!

I remain agnostic at best about the identity of USA 290. Perhaps, if new payloads are launched into similar orbits over the coming years, the picture will become more clear. For now, I regard USA 290 as an oddity, and not necessarily a KH-11.

UPDATE 27 Apr 2021 11:00 UT

Cees Bassa optically observed the NROL-82 payload on the 2nd and 3rd revolution. Radio observers including Scott Tilley are also tracking it.

Based on a hybrid optical/radio orbit computed by Scott Tilley, the orbital altitude is somewhat different than expected, the orbit less eccentric: but the orbital plane is even closer to that of USA 224.

The orbital plane is very close to that of USA 224 indeed: a ~1 degree difference in RAAN and 0.1 degree difference in orbital inclination.

Orbital altitude currently appears to be about 525 x 760 km, i.e. less eccentric than our initila pre-launch estimate. That of USA 224 is 256 x 997 km.

The NROL-82 payload might manoeuvre in the coming days and weeks in order to have it's apogee and perigee altitudes match with  that of USA 224.

click to enlarge

Image from Trump tweet identified as imagery by USA 224, a classified KH-11 ENHANCED CRYSTAL satellite

click to enlarge. image: US Government

The incredibly detailed image above was leaked declassified and revealed to the world by US President Donald Trump, very characteristically in a tweet, on 30 August 2019.

It shows the aftermath of the failed Iranian Safir launch of August 28/29, with considerable damage to the platform and vehicles. Obviously, there was an explosion or crash of some sort, likely an explosion of an engine or rocket stage or failed lift-off.

The image is a photograph of a printed photograph: you can see the reflection of the camera flash on the photographic print near the center of the image and the silhouet of the person photographing it. There is also some image distortion, likely because the print was curling somewhat at the edges. But the level of detail is amazing (and the original might have been even more detailed).

That level of detail quickly led to speculation: what platform took this image? A drone? A high altitude reconnaissance aircraft? A satellite?

Some initially argued that the level of detail was too high for a satellite. But as we will see in this post, it was made by a satellite, and we can even say which satellite.

The level of detail in the image is incredible and points to one of the NRO's classified KH-11 EVOLVED ENHANCED CRYSTAL electro-optical reconnaissance satellites (they are also known as ADVANCED CRYSTAL, KENNEN, and colloquially as 'KeyHole').

These are high resolution optical satellites that resemble the Hubble Space Telescope, but look down to Earth instead of to the heavens. It is known that the optics of these satellites are 2.4-meter diameter mirrors. Theoretically, from the perigee of their orbits this would yield a resolution of just under 10 cm.

Christiaan Triebert analysed the shadow directions on the image and placed the time of the image between 9 and 10 UT (August 29), or 13:30-14:30 local Iranian time. Michael Thompson pointed out on Twitter that one of the KH-11 satellites, USA 224 (2011-002A), made a pass over the launch site in that time window.

This satellite is a classified satellite, but we do know its orbit because amateur trackers track this object regularly. This is USA 224 passing over my hometown Leiden in June 2014 for example:

USA 224 passing over Leiden, 21 June 2014

This blogpost consolidates two analysis which I initially published through Twitter. I will show in this analysis that there is very little doubt that USA 224 took this image.

Matching view angles 

The map below shows how USA 224 passed almost right over the launch site at 9:43:47 UT on August 29, with a maximum elevation of 87.7 degrees. The photograph tweeted by President Trump was taken post culmination, from the location indicated by the white cross in the map above. That position is based on the analysis that now follows.

click map to enlarge

The depicted trajectory for USA 224 is based on amateur tracking data. I used elset 19239.00965638 which was ~2.5 days old at the time of the overflight. In the absence of a manoeuvre, it should be accurate to a few seconds in time along-track and very little error cross-track.

USA 224
1 37348U 11002A   19239.00965638 0.00010600  00000-0  95384-4 0    03
2 37348  97.9000 349.1166 0536016 134.6567 225.3431 14.78336728    04

The imaged launch site itself is located at 35.2346 N, 53.9210 E, altitude 936 m, and indicated by the blue dot in the map. The launch platform is part of Iran's Imam Khomeini Space Port, near Semnan.

click to enlarge. Image: US Government

Trump's image shows the platform viewed under an oblique angle, looking in a northern direction (i.e. with the satellite to the south of the site). As the launch platform is circular, we can use the ellipticity of the platform on the image to estimate the angle under which the platform was imaged. For this, we have to measure the semi-minor and semi-major axis of the ellipse (denoted Y and R in the diagram below): their ratio corresponds to the sinus of the viewing angle.

The result of this measurement is a nominal view angle of 46.03 degrees. For USA 224, this elevation with respect to the imaged site was reached at 09:44:20.7 UT (nominally), post-culmination when the satellite was to the south of the site. From the satellite ephemeris, the satellite was at an azimuth of 194.85 degrees as seen from the imaged site at that moment. The satellite's geographical position was near 33.005 N,  53.220 E at an altitude of  283 km. The range to the imaged site was 385 km.

I used these values as input in STK and simulated the view of the damaged launch platform as seen from USA 224 for 29 August 09:44:20.7 UT. The images below compare the original image from President Trump's tweet (top) and the simulated view from USA 224 (bottom):

click to enlarge

Ignoring the shadow directions, the simulated view is very similar to the actual image, pointing out that indeed the image very likely was taken by the USA 224 satellite.

(the simulated view uses an overhead commercial satellite image taken at another time, rendered to mimic an oblique view, hence the different shadow directions).

Cees Bassa, in an independent analysis, has calculated very similar figures for the viewing angle and from that azimuth and elevation.

Matching times

In a second analysis, I tried to improve on the time of the image derived from the shadow directions.

When projecting a line through the shadow of one of the masts at the edge of the platform, this line passes almost through the middle of the access road at top right in the image:

click to enlarge

I used this observation to measure the direction of the shadow in Google Earth. It corresponds to an approximate azimuth of 40.45 degrees, which would place the sun at an azimuth of about 220.45 degrees (+- 1 degree error or so):

click to enlarge

Looking this direction up in the solar ephemerids for the imaged site (calculated with MICA), this solar azimuth corresponds to 09:46:25 UT (Aug 29). This is only 2 minutes later than the time for which the image best matches the USA 224 view of the site, as reconstructed earlier in this post.

This again confirms that this image could very well have been taken by USA 224. Both the time matches, and the view matches.

With the uncertainties in the shadow direction measurement taken into account (including uncertainties introduced by possible image deformations), within error margins the two times match. The difference between the measured (~220.45) solar azimuth and the solar azimuth calculated for 09:44:21 UT is 0.85 degrees, i.e. under a degree and hence small.

The 09:44:21 UT  derived from matching the satellite view to the image, probably is more accurate than the time derived from the shadow analysis. This time is probably accurate to a few seconds, given that the satellite TLE used was 2.5 days old.

Why?!

And then the baffling question: why did President Trump tweet an image that otherwise would be considered highly classified?

The KH-11 satellites are classified, and so is imagery from these satellites. If an adversary gets her hands on KH-11 imagery, it reveals information about the optical capacities of these space assets.

In 1984, a Navy intelligence analyst was sent to prison for leaking three KH-11 images to the press.

Reconnaissance satellite imagery made public by the US Government itself over the past decades were either from commercial DigitalGlobe satellites, or purposely degraded in quality such as not to reveal the optical capacities of the KH-11. But now we see a US President tweet, on what appears to be a whim for the purpose of gloating, a very detailed image that as was shown in this post definitely was taken by a KH-11 satellite.

The occassion at which this happened, is eyebrow raising. A failed space launch hardly is a matter of great geopolitical concern. It is something trivial compared to e.g. imagery showing preparations for an invasion, the production of WMD, or atrocities against humanity. The latter could perhaps be argued to be a valid reason to publish imagery that also divulges the capacities of your best space-based imaging platforms: this occasion was not.

Which makes this a rather momentous occasion.

(note: there is a black block in the upper left of the image that seems to be placed there to redact some information that might have been printed there. I think it is likely this information was the time of image, space platform ID and the location of the latter. It points out that some deliberate thought was given to the release of this image, before it was tweeted).

USA 224 passing through Corona Borealis, 17 June 2014

Edit (2 Sep 2019):

In the comments, Russ Calvert makes a very valid point: the phone camera used to photograph the photographic print might also introduce some slant. But I suspect the error introduced this way is small as normally you would try as best as you can to hold the camera perpendicular to the paper you are photographing. A clear slant angle of the camera also would introduce a sharpness gradient that does not seem to be there. The good match between the image and the simulated view from the satellite also bears out that error introduced in this way is likely small.

Edit II (2 Sep 2019): 

Added two archive images of USA 224 passing through the night sky over my hometown Leiden.

Edit III (24 Sep 2019)

Between the infamous 1984 leak by Samuel Moring Lorrison and Trumps 2019 tweet, there was one other occasion that (parts of a) full resolution KH-11 imagery became public. That was an image from the Snowden files published in September 2016 as part of an article in The Intercept, which according to the annotations on it was taken on 28 January 2009 at 5:16 UT,

I had forgotten about it untill this article by Dwayne Day brought it to my attention again, and then I remembered that I had already identified this image as being taken by USA 129 (1996-072A), a now deorbitted KH-11 reconnaissance satellite.

image source: The Intercept 6 Sept 2016

In 2018 Bill Robinson geolocated the image as showing a part of Zaranj, a southern Afghanistan village on the border with Iran. I in turn was able to show that USA 129 was near this location (see Bill's blog post), in an appropriate position to make the image. As een from the position of USA 129 at 5:16 UT, Zaranj was located at a range of 368 km. Seen from Zaranj, the satellite was in azimuth 216 degrees, elevation 66 degrees at that time.

click map to enlarge

USA 290 (NROL-71)

click image to enlarge

The photograph above is not the best of images, but it does show the trail (faint) of  USA 290, the payload of the January 19 NROL-71 launch from Vandenberg. I shot it last Monday morning, February 11th.

I wrote about this odd launch earlier (here). Before the launch, it was widely suspected that this was a new electro-optical reconnaissance satellite, a block V KH-11 ADVANCED CRYSTAL ("Keyhole"). So we expected it to go in a 98-degree inclined, ~1000 x 265 km sun-synchronous orbit, the orbit typical for new primary plane additions to the KH-11 constellation.

But then the Maritime Broadcast Warnings for the launch came out, and it became clear that the splashdown and deorbit zones did not fit a launch azimuth consistent with such an orbit (see a previous post where this was discussed). Instead, it suggested a 74-degree inclined, 265 x 455 km non-sunsynchronous orbit. Which was very odd, as it was completely against expectations for a new KH-11.

click map to enlarge

The launch was postponed several times, but finally happened on 19 January, a month later than it was originally slated. The launch postponements added a new mystery: the shifting launch window times with each postponement suggested a particular orbital plane with a nodal precession of -2.27 deg/day was aimed for.

The question was: why, if  NROL-71 was going into a 74-degree inclined orbit? Targetting a specific orbital plane only makes sense when the payload is part of a constellation of satellites. But NROL-71 was not targetting the orbital inclination of the existing KH-11 constellation (currently consisting of USA 186, USA 224, USA 245). And it's orbit is (as we will see) not sun-synchronous. It is very odd (and does suggest there will be future objects going into a similar orbit).

After launch on 19:10 UT on January 19th, 2019, there initially was no optical visibility as nighttime passes in the Northern hemisphere were in earth shadow.

But radio observers (a.o. Sven Grahn, Scott Tilley, Cees Bassa, Nico Jansen) quickly picked up the radiosignals of the payload at 2242.5 MHz. These showed that the payload was in a 73.6 degree inclined non-sunsynchronous ~400 km Low Earth Orbit, much as we had gleaned pre-launch from the hazard zones in the Maritime Broadcast Warnings.

As USA 290 slowly emerged from Earth shadow passes, the first optical observations were made by Russell Eberst in Scotland in the morning of 1 February. Next Leo Barhorst in the Netherlands soon followed.

These initial passes were very low in the sky, too low for my urban environment where I need elevations above 20-25 degrees to clear the rooftops. And when as February progressed the passes gradually climbed higher in the sky for my location, weather was not cooperating.

But in the morning of 11 February I finally had a clear sky, and managed to image USA 290, photographically as well as on video. As the illumination angle was not the best, the payload stayed a bit faint, but still was bright enough to register as a faint trail on the photograph (the bright star near the trail is gamma Cygni. Image taken with a Canon EOS 60D + EF 2.0/35 mm lens):

click image to enlarge

The object showed up well on the video (WATEC 902H + Canon FD 1.8/50 mm lens), yielding good astrometry:




The optical observations helped to better define the orbit. They show USA 290 is in a 393 x 422 km, 73.6 degree inclined, non-sunsynchronous orbit.

Apart from abandoning the 97.9 degree inclined sun-synchronous orbit of the primary plane KH-11's, it also abandoned the 1000 x 260 km orbital altitude that was previously typical for new primary plane launches. The orbital altitude is closer to the extended mission, secondary plane KH-11's, the sole representative of which (USA186) currently is in a 262 x 452 km orbit.

Of course, in terms of orbital inclination and nodal precession (the non-sunsynchronous character) it doesn't compare to any of the previous KH-11.

(Note: a few year ago I wrote a series of detailed posts analysing the orbital constellation of the KH-11, and the typical changes in orbital plane and orbital altitude when a new addition to the constellation was launched: see the posts here and here).

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

So, there is something new under the sun, in more than one way. While the general consensus still is that USA 290 is an electro-optical bird in the ADVANCED CRYSTAL lineage, the radical break with previous orbital structures for this series of satellites is highly interesting. It will be interesting to follow this new object, and see how things develop with future launches.

Over the last two years, the black space program in Low Earth Orbit has become much more exciting, with some new eyebrow-raising additions unlike any previous missions. Examples are USA 276, the failed Zuma launch, and now USA 290, all launches from the past 1.5 years.

I like it: just when we thought things were getting perhaps a tad predictable, we are suddenly treated to a number of surprises, resulting in new stuff to ponder and analyse.

NROL-71: an enigmatic launch [UPDATED]

(this post on NROL-71 is belated, as I was in hospital around the original launch date. Luckily, launch got postponed)

click map to enlarge

If nothing ontowards happens, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) will launch NROL-71, a Delta IV-Heavy with a classified payload, from Vandenberg SLC-6 on 19 December 2018 (18 December local time). [edit:] after the December 19 launch was scrubbed, a new launch attempt will take place on December 20 (December 19 local time in the USA). The December 20 launch was scrubbed as well due to a hydrogen leak in one of the boosters. A provisional new launch date is 21 December 2018 (December 20 local time in the USA) at 1:31 UT.

The new launch date will not be before 30 December 2018.

The launch was postponed three times. Originally to be launched on December 8, a communications problem aborted that launch. A renewed launch attempt the next day, was aborted only 7.5 seconds before lift-off because of a technical issue (see the video below).




A new launch attempt will take place on 19 December 2018 at 1:57 UT. As weather prospects at the moment do not look particularly good for that date, it is possible that the launch will see even further postponement. [edit:] This assessment turned out to be right: the launch was postponed due to high altitude winds. A new launch date has been set for 20 December 2018 at 1:44 UT. The December 20 launch was also aborted, due to a hydrogen leak in one of the boosters. A provisional new launch date has been set for 21 December (20 December local time in the USA) at 1:31 UT. The new launch date will not be before 30 December 2018.

NROL-71 is an odd launch. When the Maritime Broadcast Warnings for the launch came out and revealed the launch hazard areas, they contained a big surprise. The general expectation among analysts was that NROL-71 was the first of the Block V new generation KH-11 ADVANCED CRYSTAL electro-optical reconnaissance satellites. As such we expected it to go in a sun-synchronous, 97.9 degree inclined, 265 x 1000 km orbit.

But the Maritime Broadcast Warnings suggest this is NOT the case. The hazard areas are incompatible with such a sun-synchronous polar orbit. Instead, they point to a (non-sunsynchronous!) 74-75 degree inclined orbit. Not what you expect for an optical reconnaissance satellite!

The map below shows the three hazard zones. Two are directly downrange from the launch site, where the strap-on boosters and first stage splash down. The third area is the upper stage deorbit area (which is remarkably small in size), located northeast of Hawaii, with deorbit occuring near the end of the first revolution (as usual).

click map to enlarge

The trajectory depicted by the dashed line on the map is for a 74-degree inclined, 265 x 455 km orbit. Higher inclined orbits would miss the downrange splashdown zones and the upper stage deorbit area.

Ted Molczan has pointed out that the shift in launch time with each launch delay, points to a specific orbital plane and a specific aim for the rate of precession of the RAAN of -2.27 deg/day.

This is over twice as fast as the RAAN precession of the KH-11 currently in orbit (0.98 deg/day, i.e. sun-synchronous).

This value for the RAAN precession apparently aimed for, puts further constraints on the orbit as in combination with the 74-degree inclination deduced from the location of the Launch Hazard areas it points to a semi-major axis of about 6735 km.

Going from the notion of KH-11-like orbital altitudes, the current typical KH-11 perigee near 265 km would then result in an apogee near 455 km. This is somewhat similar to the orbital altitude of the oldest of the KH-11 on orbit, USA 186 in the secondary West plane, which was in a 262 x 443 km orbit when we last observed it early October (it currently is invisible due to the winter blackout). This apogee would be much lower than that of the two KH-11 payloads in the primary planes, which have apogee near 1000 km, i.e. twice as high, another deviation from expectations. Normally, KH-11 are launched into a primary plane and about 265 x 1000 km orbit, and only after some years, when the payload is moved to a secondary plane (and a new payload is launched into the primary plane), is apogee lowered to ~450 km (see an earlier post here).

So, if NROL-71 is a new electro-optical reconnaissance satellite in the KH-11 series, it represents a serious deviation from past KH-11 missions. The apparent abandoning of a sun-synchronous polar orbit, is surprising, as such orbits are almost synonymous with Earth Reconnaissance. The "why" of a 74-degree orbit is mystifying too. If it does go into a 74-degree inclined orbit, it doesn't seem to be a "Multi-Sun-Synchonous-Orbit".

Alternatives have been proposed. Ted Molczan has for example suggested that, perhaps, NROL-71 could be a reincarnation of the Misty stealth satellites, warning that the unexpected orbital inclination for NROL-71 might not be the only surprise.

I myself was struck by the fact that 74-degree orbital inclination is the prograde complementary of the retrograde 106 degree inclination of the FIA Radar/TOPAZ 6 payload (USA 281,  2018-005A) launched early this year: note that 180-106 = 74. FIA Radar 6 was the first in a new block of TOPAZ radar payloads, just like NROL-71 appears to be the first in a new block of  'something'.

The previous four FIA Radars, launched into 123-degree inclined orbits, were the retrograde complementary in inclination of the prograde 57-degree Lacrosse 5 orbit, another radar satellite. The complementary character of 106-degree versus 74-degree for NROL-71, could perhaps point to NROL-71 being a Lacrosse Follow-On, as a complementary to the newest FIA block.

If NROL-71 is a Lacrosse Follow-On, its orbital altitude and brightness behavious might yield clues: Lacrosse 5 has shown a very distinct brightness behaviour.

It will be very interesting to chase this launch. If launch occurs on 19 December near 1:57 UT and weather cooperates, Europe will have visible evening twilight passes in the first few days.

Below are a couple of search orbits. All are for an assumed 74-degree orbital inclination and launch on 19 December at 1:57 UT. The first three are for KH-11 like orbital altitudes. The fourth is for a Lacrosse-like orbital altitude.

Orbit #70003 fits the hazard areas from the Maritime Broadcast Warnings best.

[EDIT: new updated search orbits below, for the new launch date, 19 Dec 20918 1:44 UT] 

[EDIT: new updated search orbits below, for the new launch date, 21 Dec 2018 1:31 UT]



NROL-71                                                 265 x 1000 km
1 70001U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    00
2 70001 074.0000 184.7636 0524203 155.2439 326.4145 14.78994708    03

NROL-71                                                  265 x 500 km
1 70002U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
2 70002 074.0000 184.7636 0173800 155.2439 324.5345 15.61785606    06

NROL-71                                                  265 x 455 km
1 70003U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    02
2 70003 074.0000 184.7636 0140989 155.2439 324.3567 15.69614809    07

NROL-71                                                  715 x 725 km
1 70004U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
2 70004 074.0000 184.8196 0007044 155.2265 327.0336 14.51731413    06



Note that deviations of many minutes in pass time and several degrees deviation in cross-track are possible on all four orbits, certainly several revolutions after launch.

USA 186 recovered

click to enlarge

The image above shows USA 186 (2005-042A), a KH-11 ADVANCED CRYSTAL ("Keyhole") optical reconnaissance satellite. It is cruising just below the Pleiades star cluster in this image, which I shot yesterday evening using the Samyang 1.4/85 mm lens and an exposure of 2 seconds.

USA 186 was recovered last week after being briefly lost in the Northern hemisphere winter blackout. Leo Barhorst made one or two possible detection in February, but it was Cees Bassa who unambiguously recovered it on March 13th. Two days later, I made the image above.

The arc is still short, but it appears to be in an approximately 265 x 435 km sun-synchronous orbit. The apogee is some 20 km lower than it previously was, the perigee is about 5 km higher (i.e., the current orbit is more circular than previous orbits). It's ground repeat interval is 4 days.

USA 186 is the secondary West plane satellite in the KH-11 constellation. The hunt is now on for USA 245, the primary West plane KH-11. Recovery of the primary East plane KH-11, USA 224, will have to wait untill early summer.

When I observed it yesterday it was bright (mag +1.5) and briefly flared to mag 0 near 19:32:50 UT (March 15, 2017).

USA 224 recovered: an update of the KH-11 constellation

Russell Eberst in Scotland has recovered the noon-plane KH-11 ADVANCED CRYSTAL/"Keyhole" optical reconnaissance satellite USA 224 (2011-002A) this week. The recovery happened relatively late (in 2015 it was recovered 2 months earlier).

This recovery means that, after the preliminary update last March, I can provide my periodic update on the orbits of the KH-11 constellation based on timely orbital data.

In various previous post to this blog, I outlined how the KH-11 constellation consists of two primary orbital planes, the primary East and West planes; and originally two, now one, secondary orbital plane(s). Of the latter secondary planes, only one, the secondary West plane, is left after the de-orbit of USA 161 late 2014.

The past decade or so, the primary planes have been 48-49 degrees apart in RAAN. That is still the case: USA 224 and USA 245, the primary East and West plane KH-11's, are currently 49 degrees apart in RAAN.

The secondary planes used to be either 10 or 20 degrees from the corresponding primary plane in RAAN, but since mid-2014 the secondary West plane (currently USA 186) has moved further out, to 24 degrees West of the primary orbital plane.

As I have outlined before on this blog, the secondary plane(s) differ in orbital altitudes from the primary planes. The current configuration:


         perigee   apogee    l time   repeat
Sat        km        km      d node   (days)   plane
USA 186    261       454     08:05      3      secondary W
USA 224    262      1007     12:58      4      primary E
USA 245    266      1000     09:42      4      primary W

Given are the apogee and perigee altitudes of the satellites, the average local time they pass through their descending node (an indication of around what time they pass a given area - all satellites in the constellation are sun-synchronous, i.e. they pass  at a similar solar elevation each day), the repeat interval of the ground track in days, and the plane they orbit in.

What can be seen is that the secondary plane satellite, USA 186, is in a much more circular orbit with a much lower apogee (454 km), compared to the two primary satellites (~1000 km). Perigee altitudes of all three satellites are similar. I have speculated on the reason for this apogee difference of the secondary plane satellite at the end of a previous post.

The West plane satellites, USA 186 and USA 245, make morning passes, about 1h45m after each other. The East plane satellite, USA 224, makes passes about an hour after local noon.

The current orbital configuration has been more or less stable since mid-2014 (or more exactly, since USA 161 was de-orbitted late 2014).

SIGINT, IMINT and MH17

(this post continues discussions in earlier posts on possible classified space-based observations of the shootdown of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over the Ukraine in 2014)

My position paper written for the Dutch Parliament Foreign Affairs committee hearing of Jan 22 (see my previous post) has a strong focus on infra-red detections of a missile by SBIRS. There are however a few other relevant aspects of Space Based observations in connection to the MH17 disaster that I could not cover in the space available to me for that paper.

In this post, I will provide some brief additional information about:

1) potential roles for IMINT satellites;
2) the positions of SIGINT satellites.


Optical and radar IMINT

1. optical IMINT

Both (unclassified) commercial and (classified) military satellite systems for high-resolution optical imagery (Image Intelligence, IMINT) exist, and both sources will be discussed below.

Optical and radar imagery obtained in the hours before, as well as during the event, might be used to look for missile systems, both on the Ukrainian as well as separatist sides of the front, in a wide circle around the site of the shootdown. It could also be used to verify the reconstruction of the purported movements of a Russian BUK system published by citizen journalist team Bellingcat, a study which is not uncontested. The Bellingcat team places the BUK in certain places at certain times, and if space-based imagery (either military or commercial) for those locations and times exist they could perhaps verify these claims.

The US military has one classified system of optical satellites with a (much-) better-than-1-meter capability: the KH-11 IMPROVED CRYSTAL/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL (aka 'Keyhole' or 'KENNAN') which reportedly (and theoretically, from known 2.4 meter mirror size specs) have a resolution in the order of  10-20 cm.

Mid-2014 this system consisted of four satellites: USA 161, USA 186, USA 224 and USA 245. All of these have been discussed on this blog before and are tracked by our amateur network.

We have accurate tracking data on three of these, USA 161, USA 224 and USA 245 for the days around 17 July 2014 and hence can pinpoint when these potentially had the crash area in their sight to better than a minute. For USA 186, which was actively manoeuvering around that time and for which we have a gap in our coverage form June to August 2014, pass times are a bit less certain and constrained to about 20-30 minutes accuracy.

First, we can positively affirm that one of the KH-11, USA 161 (2001-044A) actually had the Ukraine in its potential view during the incident at 13:20 UT:

click images to enlarge

Please note well: this does however NOT mean that USA 161 delivered imagery of the event. A number of factors should be taken into account:

1. the cloud cover at that moment, which might hinder imagery;
2. the crash site is located quite in the perifery of the satellites footprint area;
3. these satellites do likely not make images continuously, but only if commanded to do so, for specific areas of interest;
4. there is the question of whether USA 161 was still operational at that time. It was the oldest of the on-orbit KH-11, being launched 14 years earlier. Only a few months later it was de-orbitted, so it was clearly at the end of its lifetime.

In addition to their KH-11 system, the US military hires space on commercial high resolution optical IMINT satellites from the US commercial firm Digitalglobe (the same firm that supplies Google Earth with satellite imagery).  

Digitalglobe operates a number of satellites with a better-than-1-meter capability: Geoeye-1 (0.4 meter resolution), and Worldview 1, 2 and 3 (0.25-0.50 meter resolution). Most of the satellite imagery that the US Department of Defense supplies to the press (when briefing on the military situation in e.g. North Korea, Syria and Libya) comes from these commercial satellites.

Imagery from these same Digitalglobe satellites is also available commercially, to any interested party with money. And in addition to DigitalGlobe, the European company Airbus Defense and Space also offers commercial high-resolution optical imagery from its SPOT and Pléiades satellites. Pléiades 1A and 1B offer a 0.5 meter resolution. SPOT 5 and 6 offer a 2.5-1.5 meter resolution.

Accurate orbital data from non-classified sources are available for all the commercial imagers for 17 July 2014. The satellites in question made several daylight passes over the area in the morning of July 17, 2014, between 8:00 and 10:00 GMT, i.e. during the 3 to 5 hours before the shootdown, a period when the skies were still less clouded.

This does not mean that they necessarily made imagery of course. Yet any imagery these commercial Digitalglobe and Airbus satellites did make on July 16, 17 and 18 have the advantage that they are not "classified", unlike the US military data, meaning that they could be used and published without diplomatic problems by the Dutch government in the Dutch criminal investigation into the disaster.

I would therefore expect the Dutch OM to either buy or subpoena all potential Digitalglobe and Airbus imagery from these dates. They can be used to reconstruct missile system positions in the area (both on the Ukrainian, the separatist and Russian sides) within range of the shootdown location, and they can be used to hunt for missile transports (see my earlier remarks about the Bellingcat claims). The Dutch Air Force has an imagery analysis unit that is well suited to help with such an analysis. Including imagery from the days before and after the incident as well is useful to look for differences between imagery of these respective dates.


2. Radar IMINT

The US military has two systems for high resolution radar IMINT: the Lacrosse (ONYX) system of which currently only one satellite, Lacrosse 5 (2005-016A) is left on-orbit, and the radar component of the Future Imagery Architecture (known as TOPAZ), consisting of three satellites: FIA Radar 1, 2 and 3 (2010-046A, 2012-014A and 2013-072A). These systems should be capable of providing imagery with sub-meter resolutions, and like optical imagery, they can be used to look for the presence of missile systems in the area. They have the added bonus that they are not hampered by cloud cover, unlike optical imagery.

Apart from the USA, the German military also operates a radar satellite system, the SAR-Lupe satellites. The French military likewise operates its own radar satellite system, the Hélios system. Japan operates the IGS system (which includes both optical and radar satellite versions).

All of these satellites made passes over the Ukraine at one time or another on July 17 2014, so all of them might have provided useful imagery.  FIA Radar 3 made a pass right over the area in question near 11:43 UT for example, some 1.5 hours before the tragedy. FIA Radar 2 made a pass over the area at 18:00 UT, 4.5 hours after the shootdown. These are just a few examples.

Given what was happening in the area around this time, and the strong concern of NATO and the EU about this, it is almost certain that imagery of the area was collected by these US, German and French satellite systems.


SIGINT

My position paper briefly mentions that a number of countries have space-based SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) capacities. This does not only concern capacities for (for example) the NSA to tap into your cellphone and satellite telephone conversations: another important strategic aspect of space-based SIGINT is the capacity to detect radar and telemetry signals from enemy weapons systems. Such detections allow identification of the used weapons system (each system has its own 'signature'). They also allow, according to remarks by the then NRO director Bruce Carlson in a speech from September 2010 at the National Space Symposium, geolocation of the source of this radar signal (in the case of MH17: geolocation of the Target Acquisition Radar of the launch unit).

The US military has a number of SIGINT systems in several types of orbits: Low Earth Orbit (LEO) below 1500 km which allows coverage of a few minutes during a pass over a target; and Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) and geosynchronous orbit (GEO), which allow to monitor targets for many hours (HEO) to continuously (GEO) from distances of 36 000+ km.

France has a number of SIGINT satellites in LEO. China no doubt has SIGINT satellites too, as does Russia. For the moment I will focus on the US systems. I must ad that I did check the French systems as well but none of the French systems (ESSAIM and Elisa, both in LEO) had sight of the Ukraine at that time.

The US systems, under the catch-all codename ORION, include the TRUMPET-FO which move in HEO. One of them is USA 184, mentioned before in the discussion of SBIRS as it has a piggyback SBIRS capacity in addition to its main SIGINT role.

There are also the big MENTOR satellites in GEO, plus two MERCURY satellites also in GEO, and the older VORTEX system. Of these systems, TRUMPET-FO, MENTOR and MERCURY are certainly still active based on their orbital behaviour.

The map below shows the positions of those satellites in this series for which we have enough tracking data to allow a reconstruction of their positions and footprints on 17 July 2014, 13:20 UT and which had the MH17 crash area within potential view:

click map to enlarge

Again: this does NOT necessarily mean that all of these satellites were actively monitoring the Ukraine at that time. Quite a number of them will have been tasked on the Middle East.

Yet, given the strong NATO interest in events in the Ukraine at that time, notably the rising concern about advanced surface-to-air missile systems following the shootdown of a Ukrainian Antonov-26 a few days earlier, I would be surprised if none of them monitored the Ukraine at all.


A clarification note on the position of USA 184 (SIGINT/SBIRS)

In my position paper written for the Dutch Parliament Foreign Affairs committee meeting coming Friday, I included this map with the positions of three SBIRS satellites with view on the Ukraine at that time:

click map to enlarge

I should point out here that there is some leeway in the exact position of USA 184, depending on whether it made a corrective manoeuvre to maintain its Mean Motion of about 2.00615 revolutions/day or not since the day we last observed it.

If it did, its position would be slightly more westward compared to the position depicted above, i.e. in a position just north of Scotland rather than above the Norwegian coast:

Let me be clear: this does NOT influence the conclusions of my position paper: the MH17 crash site in both variants is well within the field of view as seen from USA 184, i.e. the satellite could potentially provide both Infra-red and SIGINT detections. In the interest of accuracy, I thought I should however mention it here.


Acknowledgement -  I thank Mike McCants (USA) and Ted Molczan (Canada) for discussions about satellite positions, notably concerning USA 184.

KH-11 USA 224 recovered

Over the past week I twice tried to recover the KH-11 CRYSTAL ('Keyhole') USA 224 (2011-002A) but failed. Leo Barhorst and Cees Bassa however did recover it on the night of April 27-28, in an orbital plane which is 4 degrees more westward than its previous plane. This meant that on two previous nights when I was doing a 1.5-hours (one orbital revolution) photographic coverage of the old plane, it actually passed outside the FOV of my camera...

Last night, based on Cees' search orbit, I did observe it as it was passing through Lyra around 22:57 UT. The image above and below shows it, together with the old Japanese scientific satellite Tansei 3 (MS-T3, 1977-012A), which was captured as a stray in the same images. The Japanese satellite is moving in a much higher orbit, as can be seen from the much shorter trails. It slowly faded in and out, so it appears to be slowly tumbling.

The image below is a stack of 13 images (4 seconds exposure each, with 5-second gaps). The image above at the top of this post is a single image from this series. The images were made with the very fine Samyang 1.4/85 mm lens.

The plane change was probably done to keep the separation of this primary East plane KH with the primary West plane KH (USA 245) near 48-49 degrees (the angle between the primary East and West planes maintained over the past several years). This would also bring the separation with USA 161, the secondary East plane KH, to 25 degrees, similar to the current distance between the orbital planes of  USA 245 and USA 186 in the primary and secondary West plane.

I therefore expect that when we recover USA 161, the secondary East plane KH, it will be in an orbital plane about 25 degrees east of USA 224.