NROL-71: an enigmatic launch [UPDATED]

(this post on NROL-71 is belated, as I was in hospital around the original launch date. Luckily, launch got postponed)

click map to enlarge

If nothing ontowards happens, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) will launch NROL-71, a Delta IV-Heavy with a classified payload, from Vandenberg SLC-6 on 19 December 2018 (18 December local time). [edit:] after the December 19 launch was scrubbed, a new launch attempt will take place on December 20 (December 19 local time in the USA). The December 20 launch was scrubbed as well due to a hydrogen leak in one of the boosters. A provisional new launch date is 21 December 2018 (December 20 local time in the USA) at 1:31 UT.

The new launch date will not be before 30 December 2018.

The launch was postponed three times. Originally to be launched on December 8, a communications problem aborted that launch. A renewed launch attempt the next day, was aborted only 7.5 seconds before lift-off because of a technical issue (see the video below).




A new launch attempt will take place on 19 December 2018 at 1:57 UT. As weather prospects at the moment do not look particularly good for that date, it is possible that the launch will see even further postponement. [edit:] This assessment turned out to be right: the launch was postponed due to high altitude winds. A new launch date has been set for 20 December 2018 at 1:44 UT. The December 20 launch was also aborted, due to a hydrogen leak in one of the boosters. A provisional new launch date has been set for 21 December (20 December local time in the USA) at 1:31 UT. The new launch date will not be before 30 December 2018.

NROL-71 is an odd launch. When the Maritime Broadcast Warnings for the launch came out and revealed the launch hazard areas, they contained a big surprise. The general expectation among analysts was that NROL-71 was the first of the Block V new generation KH-11 ADVANCED CRYSTAL electro-optical reconnaissance satellites. As such we expected it to go in a sun-synchronous, 97.9 degree inclined, 265 x 1000 km orbit.

But the Maritime Broadcast Warnings suggest this is NOT the case. The hazard areas are incompatible with such a sun-synchronous polar orbit. Instead, they point to a (non-sunsynchronous!) 74-75 degree inclined orbit. Not what you expect for an optical reconnaissance satellite!

The map below shows the three hazard zones. Two are directly downrange from the launch site, where the strap-on boosters and first stage splash down. The third area is the upper stage deorbit area (which is remarkably small in size), located northeast of Hawaii, with deorbit occuring near the end of the first revolution (as usual).

click map to enlarge

The trajectory depicted by the dashed line on the map is for a 74-degree inclined, 265 x 455 km orbit. Higher inclined orbits would miss the downrange splashdown zones and the upper stage deorbit area.

Ted Molczan has pointed out that the shift in launch time with each launch delay, points to a specific orbital plane and a specific aim for the rate of precession of the RAAN of -2.27 deg/day.

This is over twice as fast as the RAAN precession of the KH-11 currently in orbit (0.98 deg/day, i.e. sun-synchronous).

This value for the RAAN precession apparently aimed for, puts further constraints on the orbit as in combination with the 74-degree inclination deduced from the location of the Launch Hazard areas it points to a semi-major axis of about 6735 km.

Going from the notion of KH-11-like orbital altitudes, the current typical KH-11 perigee near 265 km would then result in an apogee near 455 km. This is somewhat similar to the orbital altitude of the oldest of the KH-11 on orbit, USA 186 in the secondary West plane, which was in a 262 x 443 km orbit when we last observed it early October (it currently is invisible due to the winter blackout). This apogee would be much lower than that of the two KH-11 payloads in the primary planes, which have apogee near 1000 km, i.e. twice as high, another deviation from expectations. Normally, KH-11 are launched into a primary plane and about 265 x 1000 km orbit, and only after some years, when the payload is moved to a secondary plane (and a new payload is launched into the primary plane), is apogee lowered to ~450 km (see an earlier post here).

So, if NROL-71 is a new electro-optical reconnaissance satellite in the KH-11 series, it represents a serious deviation from past KH-11 missions. The apparent abandoning of a sun-synchronous polar orbit, is surprising, as such orbits are almost synonymous with Earth Reconnaissance. The "why" of a 74-degree orbit is mystifying too. If it does go into a 74-degree inclined orbit, it doesn't seem to be a "Multi-Sun-Synchonous-Orbit".

Alternatives have been proposed. Ted Molczan has for example suggested that, perhaps, NROL-71 could be a reincarnation of the Misty stealth satellites, warning that the unexpected orbital inclination for NROL-71 might not be the only surprise.

I myself was struck by the fact that 74-degree orbital inclination is the prograde complementary of the retrograde 106 degree inclination of the FIA Radar/TOPAZ 6 payload (USA 281,  2018-005A) launched early this year: note that 180-106 = 74. FIA Radar 6 was the first in a new block of TOPAZ radar payloads, just like NROL-71 appears to be the first in a new block of  'something'.

The previous four FIA Radars, launched into 123-degree inclined orbits, were the retrograde complementary in inclination of the prograde 57-degree Lacrosse 5 orbit, another radar satellite. The complementary character of 106-degree versus 74-degree for NROL-71, could perhaps point to NROL-71 being a Lacrosse Follow-On, as a complementary to the newest FIA block.

If NROL-71 is a Lacrosse Follow-On, its orbital altitude and brightness behavious might yield clues: Lacrosse 5 has shown a very distinct brightness behaviour.

It will be very interesting to chase this launch. If launch occurs on 19 December near 1:57 UT and weather cooperates, Europe will have visible evening twilight passes in the first few days.

Below are a couple of search orbits. All are for an assumed 74-degree orbital inclination and launch on 19 December at 1:57 UT. The first three are for KH-11 like orbital altitudes. The fourth is for a Lacrosse-like orbital altitude.

Orbit #70003 fits the hazard areas from the Maritime Broadcast Warnings best.

[EDIT: new updated search orbits below, for the new launch date, 19 Dec 20918 1:44 UT] 

[EDIT: new updated search orbits below, for the new launch date, 21 Dec 2018 1:31 UT]



NROL-71                                                 265 x 1000 km
1 70001U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    00
2 70001 074.0000 184.7636 0524203 155.2439 326.4145 14.78994708    03

NROL-71                                                  265 x 500 km
1 70002U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    01
2 70002 074.0000 184.7636 0173800 155.2439 324.5345 15.61785606    06

NROL-71                                                  265 x 455 km
1 70003U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    02
2 70003 074.0000 184.7636 0140989 155.2439 324.3567 15.69614809    07

NROL-71                                                  715 x 725 km
1 70004U 18999A   18355.06319444  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
2 70004 074.0000 184.8196 0007044 155.2265 327.0336 14.51731413    06



Note that deviations of many minutes in pass time and several degrees deviation in cross-track are possible on all four orbits, certainly several revolutions after launch.

TOPAZ/FIA Radar 5, the NROL-47 payload

click image to enlarge

The small streak in the center of the image above in a bright blue, partially cloudy twilight sky, is TOPAZ/FIA Radar 5 (2018-005A, 43145), the NROL-47 payload (see a previous post) imaged in evening twilight of 19 January 2018 with the sun at only 8 degrees below the horizon and the satellite at 24 degrees elevation in the northwest.

NROL-47 was launched on 12 January 2018, a week before the photo above was taken. Shortly after launch, Cees Bassa and Scott Tilley already detected the payload by radio, determining a preliminary orbit from the Doppler curves with an orbital altitude near 1057 km and inclination near 106 degrees.

The first optical observations were done in the evening of January 14th, two days after launch, by Cees Bassa in the Netherlands, after which it was picked up by a number of other observers as well (amongst others Leo Barhorst in the Netherlands, Greg Roberts in South Africa and Paul Camilleri in Australia). The latest optical observations have improved the orbit for this new satellite and show it is in a 1048 x 1057 km, 106.0 degrees inclined orbit.

The payload was making very low (11-12 degrees maximum elevation) twilight passes in the north during the first few days after launch for my locality, where I have obstruction from buildings. Passes gradually climbed higher in the sky over the week, but also deeper into twilight. Combined with dynamic weather, I started to lose hope of imaging it, but finally was succesful in the evening of 19 January. I had a 24 degree maximum elevation pass in the southwest near 17h UT, with the sun barely 8 degrees below the horizon. The pass was high enough to clear rooftop level near culmination.

The weather was again very dynamic that evening, with fields of clouds forming as soon as the sun set. Using the 1.4/85 mm lens, I took a series of images while clouds were moving in fast. Due to the very bright sky background, I was restricted to 1 second exposures at 400 ISO.

After a first quick cursory check of the images on the camera's LCD screen I initially thought I had lost the battle against clouds and twilight. But upon a more thorough inspection on my laptop a day later, it turned out it was in the images after all, and with enough reference stars to get some decent astrometry from the images.

The payload is in a new orbital plane for TOPAZ/FIA Radar satellites. While all previous four TOPAZ/FIA Radar satellites are in a 123.0 degree inclined orbit, this new TOPAZ/FIA Radar 5 is in a 106.0 degree inclined orbit.

I had already inferred a new orbital plane for this satellite pre-launch (see a previous post), based on the launch azimuth, which deviated from that of previous TOPAZ/FIA Radar launches from Vandenberg. The new 106.0 degree orbital plane is within 2.5 degrees of my original pre-launch estimate. The orbital altitude is somewhat lower than I initially estimated.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Operating in two orbital planes was also the case of a previous series of radar satellites, the Lacrosse (ONYX) satellites, of which currently only Lacrosse 5 is still in orbit. These operated in two orbital planes, at 68 and 57 degrees orbital inclination.

The 123.0 degrees orbital inclination of TOPAZ/FIA Radar 1 to 4 is the retrograde equivalent of the 57 degree inclination of the Lacrosse constellation. The new 106 degree orbital inclination is however not the equivalent of a 68 degree inclination.

The current TOPAZ/FIA Radar 5 orbital altitude of 1048 x 1057 km is slightly lower that that of the previous four TOPAZ/FIA Radar satellites, which orbit at ~1100 x 1110 km. However, it is not unlikely that over the coming weeks the orbit will be further raised to a similar altitude.

Unfortunately, I am now losing visibility of the object as the higher passes occur deeper and deeper in twilight.

TOPAZ-5 is the last of the block I TOPAZ payloads. The new 106.0 degree inclined orbital plane might be the new orbital plane for the block II payloads to be launched over the coming years.

Continuing to track NROL-45 (FIA Radar 4)

(click image to enlarge)

The image above shows FIA Radar 4 (2016-010A), the payload of the NROL-45 launch of 10 Feb 2016, crossing through Corona Borealis around 6:26 am local time  (5:26 UT) this morning (Feb 13) 3 days after launch.

It was about 6.5 seconds late on our very preliminary orbit. A new (hopefully) improved estimate of the orbit is here.

The SAR panels of the satellite do not seem to have deployed yet: the object is still relatively faint. This is normal: the panels are deployed a few days after the launch, based on patterns of earlier FIA Radar launches.

Observing NROL-45 (FIA Radar 4/TOPAZ 4) 18 hours after launch

NROL-45, imaged 18 hours after launch
(click to enlarge)

Yesterday (10 Feb 2016) at 11:40:32 UT, the NRO launched a new classified satellite from Vandenberg AFB, using a Delta-IV M rocket, under the launch designation NROL-45. The payload is the fourth FIA Radar (also known under the codename TOPAZ) and has the alternative designation USA 167 USA 267.

As with previous launches, our network of observers picked the payload up quite quickly. The first optical observations were made near 03:39 UT (11 Feb 2016), 16 hours after launch, by Cees Bassa in the Netherlands. Some two hours later, on the next pass, Leo Barhorst and me (both also in the Netherlands) observed NROL-45 as well, 18 hours after launch.

orbit of NROL-45, and position at time of photo
(click to enlarge)

A first preliminary orbit is given here and here. The satellite moves in a 122.98 degree inclined, retrograde orbit with perigee near 1086 km and apogee near 1087 km. The retrograde orbit is a clear indication that this satellite is a SAR (radar) satellite.

I did my observations under a very clear early morning sky, near 6:20 am local time. The NROL-45 payload was faint and could not be seen by the naked eye: this is normal during the first few days after launch. It will become brighter in a few days, likely because the SAR panel has then been unfolded.

With the launch of FIA Radar 4, there are now four FIA radars on orbit. Launch of a 5th one is expected in 2017. Of the current four satellites, the orbital configuration is such that the RAAN are 90 degree separated (see discussion by Ted Molczan here).

current FIA Radar constellation. NROL-45 in yellow.
(click to enlarge)

SIGINT, IMINT and MH17

(this post continues discussions in earlier posts on possible classified space-based observations of the shootdown of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over the Ukraine in 2014)

My position paper written for the Dutch Parliament Foreign Affairs committee hearing of Jan 22 (see my previous post) has a strong focus on infra-red detections of a missile by SBIRS. There are however a few other relevant aspects of Space Based observations in connection to the MH17 disaster that I could not cover in the space available to me for that paper.

In this post, I will provide some brief additional information about:

1) potential roles for IMINT satellites;
2) the positions of SIGINT satellites.


Optical and radar IMINT

1. optical IMINT

Both (unclassified) commercial and (classified) military satellite systems for high-resolution optical imagery (Image Intelligence, IMINT) exist, and both sources will be discussed below.

Optical and radar imagery obtained in the hours before, as well as during the event, might be used to look for missile systems, both on the Ukrainian as well as separatist sides of the front, in a wide circle around the site of the shootdown. It could also be used to verify the reconstruction of the purported movements of a Russian BUK system published by citizen journalist team Bellingcat, a study which is not uncontested. The Bellingcat team places the BUK in certain places at certain times, and if space-based imagery (either military or commercial) for those locations and times exist they could perhaps verify these claims.

The US military has one classified system of optical satellites with a (much-) better-than-1-meter capability: the KH-11 IMPROVED CRYSTAL/Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL (aka 'Keyhole' or 'KENNAN') which reportedly (and theoretically, from known 2.4 meter mirror size specs) have a resolution in the order of  10-20 cm.

Mid-2014 this system consisted of four satellites: USA 161, USA 186, USA 224 and USA 245. All of these have been discussed on this blog before and are tracked by our amateur network.

We have accurate tracking data on three of these, USA 161, USA 224 and USA 245 for the days around 17 July 2014 and hence can pinpoint when these potentially had the crash area in their sight to better than a minute. For USA 186, which was actively manoeuvering around that time and for which we have a gap in our coverage form June to August 2014, pass times are a bit less certain and constrained to about 20-30 minutes accuracy.

First, we can positively affirm that one of the KH-11, USA 161 (2001-044A) actually had the Ukraine in its potential view during the incident at 13:20 UT:

click images to enlarge

Please note well: this does however NOT mean that USA 161 delivered imagery of the event. A number of factors should be taken into account:

1. the cloud cover at that moment, which might hinder imagery;
2. the crash site is located quite in the perifery of the satellites footprint area;
3. these satellites do likely not make images continuously, but only if commanded to do so, for specific areas of interest;
4. there is the question of whether USA 161 was still operational at that time. It was the oldest of the on-orbit KH-11, being launched 14 years earlier. Only a few months later it was de-orbitted, so it was clearly at the end of its lifetime.

In addition to their KH-11 system, the US military hires space on commercial high resolution optical IMINT satellites from the US commercial firm Digitalglobe (the same firm that supplies Google Earth with satellite imagery).  

Digitalglobe operates a number of satellites with a better-than-1-meter capability: Geoeye-1 (0.4 meter resolution), and Worldview 1, 2 and 3 (0.25-0.50 meter resolution). Most of the satellite imagery that the US Department of Defense supplies to the press (when briefing on the military situation in e.g. North Korea, Syria and Libya) comes from these commercial satellites.

Imagery from these same Digitalglobe satellites is also available commercially, to any interested party with money. And in addition to DigitalGlobe, the European company Airbus Defense and Space also offers commercial high-resolution optical imagery from its SPOT and Pléiades satellites. Pléiades 1A and 1B offer a 0.5 meter resolution. SPOT 5 and 6 offer a 2.5-1.5 meter resolution.

Accurate orbital data from non-classified sources are available for all the commercial imagers for 17 July 2014. The satellites in question made several daylight passes over the area in the morning of July 17, 2014, between 8:00 and 10:00 GMT, i.e. during the 3 to 5 hours before the shootdown, a period when the skies were still less clouded.

This does not mean that they necessarily made imagery of course. Yet any imagery these commercial Digitalglobe and Airbus satellites did make on July 16, 17 and 18 have the advantage that they are not "classified", unlike the US military data, meaning that they could be used and published without diplomatic problems by the Dutch government in the Dutch criminal investigation into the disaster.

I would therefore expect the Dutch OM to either buy or subpoena all potential Digitalglobe and Airbus imagery from these dates. They can be used to reconstruct missile system positions in the area (both on the Ukrainian, the separatist and Russian sides) within range of the shootdown location, and they can be used to hunt for missile transports (see my earlier remarks about the Bellingcat claims). The Dutch Air Force has an imagery analysis unit that is well suited to help with such an analysis. Including imagery from the days before and after the incident as well is useful to look for differences between imagery of these respective dates.


2. Radar IMINT

The US military has two systems for high resolution radar IMINT: the Lacrosse (ONYX) system of which currently only one satellite, Lacrosse 5 (2005-016A) is left on-orbit, and the radar component of the Future Imagery Architecture (known as TOPAZ), consisting of three satellites: FIA Radar 1, 2 and 3 (2010-046A, 2012-014A and 2013-072A). These systems should be capable of providing imagery with sub-meter resolutions, and like optical imagery, they can be used to look for the presence of missile systems in the area. They have the added bonus that they are not hampered by cloud cover, unlike optical imagery.

Apart from the USA, the German military also operates a radar satellite system, the SAR-Lupe satellites. The French military likewise operates its own radar satellite system, the Hélios system. Japan operates the IGS system (which includes both optical and radar satellite versions).

All of these satellites made passes over the Ukraine at one time or another on July 17 2014, so all of them might have provided useful imagery.  FIA Radar 3 made a pass right over the area in question near 11:43 UT for example, some 1.5 hours before the tragedy. FIA Radar 2 made a pass over the area at 18:00 UT, 4.5 hours after the shootdown. These are just a few examples.

Given what was happening in the area around this time, and the strong concern of NATO and the EU about this, it is almost certain that imagery of the area was collected by these US, German and French satellite systems.


SIGINT

My position paper briefly mentions that a number of countries have space-based SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) capacities. This does not only concern capacities for (for example) the NSA to tap into your cellphone and satellite telephone conversations: another important strategic aspect of space-based SIGINT is the capacity to detect radar and telemetry signals from enemy weapons systems. Such detections allow identification of the used weapons system (each system has its own 'signature'). They also allow, according to remarks by the then NRO director Bruce Carlson in a speech from September 2010 at the National Space Symposium, geolocation of the source of this radar signal (in the case of MH17: geolocation of the Target Acquisition Radar of the launch unit).

The US military has a number of SIGINT systems in several types of orbits: Low Earth Orbit (LEO) below 1500 km which allows coverage of a few minutes during a pass over a target; and Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) and geosynchronous orbit (GEO), which allow to monitor targets for many hours (HEO) to continuously (GEO) from distances of 36 000+ km.

France has a number of SIGINT satellites in LEO. China no doubt has SIGINT satellites too, as does Russia. For the moment I will focus on the US systems. I must ad that I did check the French systems as well but none of the French systems (ESSAIM and Elisa, both in LEO) had sight of the Ukraine at that time.

The US systems, under the catch-all codename ORION, include the TRUMPET-FO which move in HEO. One of them is USA 184, mentioned before in the discussion of SBIRS as it has a piggyback SBIRS capacity in addition to its main SIGINT role.

There are also the big MENTOR satellites in GEO, plus two MERCURY satellites also in GEO, and the older VORTEX system. Of these systems, TRUMPET-FO, MENTOR and MERCURY are certainly still active based on their orbital behaviour.

The map below shows the positions of those satellites in this series for which we have enough tracking data to allow a reconstruction of their positions and footprints on 17 July 2014, 13:20 UT and which had the MH17 crash area within potential view:

click map to enlarge

Again: this does NOT necessarily mean that all of these satellites were actively monitoring the Ukraine at that time. Quite a number of them will have been tasked on the Middle East.

Yet, given the strong NATO interest in events in the Ukraine at that time, notably the rising concern about advanced surface-to-air missile systems following the shootdown of a Ukrainian Antonov-26 a few days earlier, I would be surprised if none of them monitored the Ukraine at all.


A clarification note on the position of USA 184 (SIGINT/SBIRS)

In my position paper written for the Dutch Parliament Foreign Affairs committee meeting coming Friday, I included this map with the positions of three SBIRS satellites with view on the Ukraine at that time:

click map to enlarge

I should point out here that there is some leeway in the exact position of USA 184, depending on whether it made a corrective manoeuvre to maintain its Mean Motion of about 2.00615 revolutions/day or not since the day we last observed it.

If it did, its position would be slightly more westward compared to the position depicted above, i.e. in a position just north of Scotland rather than above the Norwegian coast:

Let me be clear: this does NOT influence the conclusions of my position paper: the MH17 crash site in both variants is well within the field of view as seen from USA 184, i.e. the satellite could potentially provide both Infra-red and SIGINT detections. In the interest of accuracy, I thought I should however mention it here.


Acknowledgement -  I thank Mike McCants (USA) and Ted Molczan (Canada) for discussions about satellite positions, notably concerning USA 184.

[UPDATED] A post-analysis of the N-Korean launch window, and N-Korean Spooks on my weblog?

On December 12, North Korea surprised the Western world by successfully bringing its first independently confirmed satellite into orbit: Kwangmyongsong 3-2, a reportedly 100 kg cubesat. For images of the satellite and an analysis of its likely components, see here. The satellite was launched with an UNHA 3 rocket from Sohae Launch Centre in Cholsan.

The successful launch came as a surprise for two reasons. First, all previous North Korean satellite launch attempts abysmally failed (even if N-Korea claimed they were a success).

Second, North Korea had indicated days before the launch that the launch was to be postponed to late December, for technical reasons. This appears to have been a deliberate disinformation ploy by N-Korea. According to South Korean press sources, it appears they also tried to play a ruse on the Americans, by pretending to dismantle the rocket when US imaging satellites were overhead, and continuing launch preparations when they were not.




Analysing the time of launch and US satellite coverage of the launch site

Well then: did the North Koreans indeed try to evade US (and Japanese) satellite surveillance?

First, they would not have been able to evade detection of the launch itself by US infra-red early warning satellites such as the DSP satellites and SBIRS in geostationary and HEO orbit. Coverage by these satellites is continuous.

But that was probably not N-Korea's goal anyway. Their goal reportedly was to try to convince analysts of imagery from US imaging satellites (optical and radar) that the rocket was not yet complete at the launch site, and not yet ready to launch for a while. The aim was apparently to throw off US predictions about the "when" of the launch until the very moment of launch itself.

Their concern hence was with US and Japanese optical and radar imaging satellites such as the KH-12 Keyholes, Lacrosses, FIA and IGS. These imaging satellites move in LEO, and coverage is not continuous- not yet at least.

Indeed, the timing of the North Korean launch (00:49 UTC on December 12) is interesting. It coincides with the end of a one hour long interval with no coverage of the launch site by US or Japanese Low Earth Orbit imaging satellites.

By contrast, in the hours prior to and after this one-hour gap in coverage, such periods of non-coverage were much shorter (typically 10-15 minutes at best), as can be seen in the coverage analysis images below and the movie near the top of this post (movie, images and analysis made using JSatTrak).

click image to enlarge

As can be seen from the coverage analysis, this hour long interval between 23:45-00:45 UT really stands out compared to the hours before and after. The N-Koreans launched right at the end of this interval at 00:49 UT, just when the launch site was coming into reach of the FIA Radar 2.

I feel the launch right at the end of this interval is no coincidence: they picked a moment where prior to launch they would have a substantial gap in US satellite surveillance available to complete their launch preparations. The one-hour long interval seems to have provided the North Koreans enough time to remount whatever they dismounted or camouflaged as a ruse, and launch.

(some remarks on the analysis and movie above: for a few of the satellites shown, positions are not 100% certain. For example, the Keyhole USA 186 hasn't been observed for a while because of the midwinter blackout. Satellites included in the analysis are the Japanese IGS, the US Keyholes, Lacrosses and FIA [edit: plus SPOT, Worldview and Quickbird commercial imaging satellites]).

Update 17/12 12:45 UT: 
I initially forgot to include the GeoEye Worldview and Quickbird commercial imaging satellites in the analysis. These commercial sats are frequently hired by the US government for selected imaging and used by independent analysts as well.

I have now added these satellites to the analysis, and the one-hour gap coverage between 11 Dec 23:45 and 12 Dec 00:45 UT keeps standing:

click image to enlarge

Update 17/12 16:00 UT:
Also added the French SPOT satellites to the analysis. Again, the 1-hour coverage gap between 11 Dec 23:45 and 12 dec 00:45 UT keeps standing.

Korean Spooks on my weblog?

There is a bizarre twist to this all that involves this weblog. In the late morning of December 8th, four days before the launch, an IP solving to North Korea visited this weblog. It entered through web-searches that included the keywords 'tle', 'KH-12' and 'Lacrosse 5'. A screenshot of the web statistics is below:

click image to enlarge

North Koreans with access to international websites are about as rare as, well, North Korean unicorns. Only a very select handful of North Koreans -mostly direct family members of Kim Jong Un- are allowed access to the internet.

Disclaimer: I was (and am) slightly suspicious. IP's can be spoofed, and two things caught my eye. One is the OS listed, Windows Xp. N-Korea is supposed to have its own OS, 'Red Star'. But then, maybe they only use this for their own, completely internal version of the internet. Or maybe western webstatistics providers cannot properly recognize it and list it as Xp (plus it could be a knock-off of Xp, even).

Second initially suspicious detail: the 10:05 and 10:07 visits have the word "satelliet", not "satellite" in the search string. That raised some suspicion as "satelliet" is the Dutch word for "satellite". However: that could also be a simple typo (switching the last two characters - a very common kind of typo) instead of a Dutchman typing.

Assuming that this was a real N-Korean visit, then the visit is highly interesting with reference to the apparent ruse played on US satellite surveillance of N-Korea as analysed above.

For here we apparently have a North Korean, a country where the average Kim is not allowed access to the internet, looking for orbital information on US surveillance satellites on my weblog!

This moreover was someone with at least some knowledge of satellites - again, not your average North Korean Kim, but suggestive of someone from the NK space program or intelligence program. The specific keywords 'tle' (two-line elements, i.e. a set of satellite orbital elements) and 'Lacrosse 5' (a US radar imaging satellite) and 'KH-12' (US Keyhole-12/Advanced Crystal optical imaging satellites, i.e. the satellites USA 129, USA 161, USA 186 and USA 224) bear this out.

Yet this person wasn't perhaps entirely informed. He or she searched for orbital information on those US optical and radar imaging satellites that form the backbone of US space-based surveillance, but notably missing from the search queries is the most recent addition to the US radar surveillance constellation, the two FIA Radar satellites. Also missing are Japan's IGS satellites. But, maybe, after checking for the KH-12 and Lacrosse 5 they realized they should not be on my blog for this information - they should be at Mike's website for that.

FIA Radar 2 (NROL-25) observed - with video

On the night of April 3/4, the NRO launched NROL-25, a new classified satellite. This satellite, FIA Radar 2 (USA 234) is the second of the FIA Radar satellites, and the third launch (assuming that the failed USA 193 was the first) in the Future Imagery Architecture (FIA) series. It received the SSC catalogue entry #38109, international Cospar launch code 2012-014A.

Like its earlier sistership FIA Radar 1, FIA Radar 2 is in an unusual retrograde orbit (proving that it is a radar satellite). Going from estimated search elements by Ted Molczan, Scott Tilley in the US Canada was the first to see the new object on April 4 some 5 hours after the launch. Following that, a.o. Björn Gimle in Sweden, Russell Eberst in Scotland, Alexander Repnoy in Russia and Kevin Fetter and Ted Molczan in Canada observed it.

I was clouded out on Wednesday 4 April, but yesterday evening (5 April) was clear and it was finally my turn: I could observe both evening passes, and film them. The above video provides a compilation of the obtained footage.

The first pass occurred in late twilight near 19:33 UTC , the second at 21:16 UTC (23:16 pm local time). A Near-full moon resulted in a quite light sky.  During the first pass, my GPS time inserter had some trouble maintaining the time signal (see "GPS Bad" message in first part of the footage above) and by coincidence my photo camera malfunctioned as well (due to a mistake with the wire release). Luckily, I had a second pass at 75 degree elevation 1.5 hours later, during which I could obtain a good set of positional data.

FIA Radar 2 was about mag. +4 and steady in brightness. Radio observers report a fading cycle in the radio signal, but visually the object is very steady.

I obtained some photographs as well, during the second pass of the evening. Below is a picture (Canon EOS 450D + EF 2.5/50mm Macro) shot while FIA Radar 2 crossed through the tail of the Big Dipper (Alcor & Mizar in top of the image). It is not the best of images due to the moonlight, but shows the satellite trail well in this 5-second exposure:

click image to enlarge

Over the comings days/weeks the new satellite will probably be actively manoeuvering, so it will be a nice object to keep track off!

Satellites far and near

Both Friday and Saturday evening were very clear, and the moon not yet a nuisance untill midnight.

On Friday I targetted both a few LEO and HEO objects. The KH-12 Keyhole USA 129 (96-072A), the SAR Lacrosse 3 (97-064A) and the FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) were observed, although a misalignment of the camera in the case of FIA R1 resulted in only one point on the latter. As I was waiting for FIA R1 to pass, the International Space Station (ISS) made a majestic, very bright zenith pass.

Next I changed the EF 2.5/50mm lens for the Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180mm, and targetted two faint and distant HEO objects, The Trumpet ELINT and SBIRS platform USA 200 (08-010A) and the SDS 3-4 data communications satellite USA 179 (04-034A). Two images of both are shown below.

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While sleeping, the G68 Sierra Stars Observatory Telescope in California made images for me that resulted in a position on the enigmatic Prowler (90-097E).

Saturday evening was clear as well. This time, I only targetted LEO objects: the Japanese malfunctioned satellite IGS 1B (03-009B), and both the KH-12 USA 129 and the FIA Radar 1 again.

As I was observing, a group of people attending a birthday party of one of the neighbours came onto the courtyard for a smoke. Curious, they asked me what I was doing, and after a short explanation from my part, the group of six watched in an excited state when IGS 1B made a very bright pass. It was easily visible naked eye, and they all saw it.

Below is one of the images from this evening: the FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) passing through Lyra (brightest star is Vega).

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Perseid

Yesterday evening saw very dynamic weather conditions, with the sky going from overcast to cklear to overcast in a matter of minutes. I managed to photograph the FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) and IGS 1B (03-009B).

Then I set up my camera with an Aputure automatic timer and let it take 20 second pictures all night. I did this earlier, to construct a time-lapse showing sky rotation. This time, it was also meant to capture some early Perseid meteors.

I captured one (below), low in the west.

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Satellites near the Pleiades

Yesterday evening (Saturday 29 January) some satellites seemed to be in love with the Pleiades. In a somewhat hazy sky, I observed Lacrosse 3 (97-064A) cruising near the Pleiades and Hyades in twilight, and half an hour later watched the NOSS 3-4 duo (07-027 A & C) cruise right through the Pleiades.

Below are the resulting images. The top image of the NOSS duo cruising through the Pleiades (movement is from top to bottom, with 07-027A leading) was made using the Canon EF 100/2.8 Macro USM lens: the images of Lacrosse 3 were made using the EF 50/2.5 Macro lens.

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The FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) was imaged as well. Unlike a few nights ago, it did not flare.

The previous night had a better quality sky, so I targetted a few geostationary satellites low above the horizon. Classified geostationary targets imaged were PAN (09-047A), Mentor 2 (98-029A), Mentor 4/USA 202 (09-001A) and the Milstar 5 r/b (02-001B). A number of commercial geostationary satellites were captured as well.

Below image, taken with the Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180mm, shows PAN with the nearby commercial geostationary Yamal 202 (03-053A).

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The image below, taken with the EF 2.5/50mm Macro, shows Mentor 2, with the stars of Orion's belt and Orion's nebula M42 at left:

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I also accidentally captured a mag. +2.5 sporadic meteor in one of the images taken with the Carl Zeiss 180 mm (FOV only 5 x 7 degrees!):

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FIA Radar 1 flaring!

Yesterday evening I had a short clear window of opportunity before clouds rolled in. I tried in vain to spot Nanosail-D in deep twilight, and next targetted the FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) again.

Much to my surprise (as I had not see it do that before), it flared twice. At about 17:54:11 UTC (25 Jan) the first brief but bright flare, to mag. -1 occurred. Unfortunately, I was re-aiming the camera at that moment. The satellite flared again however, to mag. +0.5, at 17:54:37.0 UTC, and this time the camera was photographing. Below is the resulting image, and the brightness curve derived from it. It are actually two flares, as a slightly fainter flare at 17:54:35.7 preceeds the main flare.

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Later that evening, during a second brief period of clear sky, I imaged Mentor 2 (98-029A) in Orion.

I also observed on the 20th (The FIA Radar 1 again, and Milstar 5r (02 001B)) and the 22nd (USA 200, 08-010A), during short clear spells.

The FIA Radar, USA 179 (SDS 3-3) and more

On the 5th, 9th, 10th and on the 16th of January, the skies shortly cleared in the evening and I observed the FIA 1 Radar (10-046A) making some nice passes through the winter sky. On the 16th it was a particularly close race with clouds coming in (the last image in the series has clouds in the image frame).

Below are two images: one from the 10th showing the FIA 1 Radar passing close to the Pleiades; the other showing it passing through the alpha Persei association on Jan 16th.

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I also observed the Molniya orbit satellite USA 179 (SDS 3-3) on the 16th, which was close to the alpha Persei association too. As it was too faint for the 50mm lens, I used the Carl Zeiss Jena 180mm lens for it (brightest star in image is alpha Persei):

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Other objects observed include PAN (09-047A) on the 9th of January. It is still in the fixed position at 49.0 E where it is since December 24 (see earlier post here). That same evening, Mentor 4 (USA 202), Mentor 2 and the Milstar 5 r/b were observed as well. A flashing H2A rocket, 06-059A, was captured as a stray. On the 5th of January, the IGS R2 r/b was captured in twilight, being very fast and very bright.

A second NROL-41 (FIA Radar 1) patch

Grey overcast skies and snow do not allow observations currently. South-African observations by Ian Roberts show that PAN was still drifting as off 21 December. Will be interesting to see where the drifting stops (if it continues this way, it will soon drift out of my reach).

In a week or so from now, I will be preparing my overview of 2010 observations. For now, I want to fill the weather-induced lul in observations by showing a recent addition to the patch collection.

A patch for NROL-41, the FIA Radar 1 launch (2010-046A), was shown earlier on this blog here. Recently I however acquired a second patch, which is of much better design:

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Patch designs of the black space program have become a bit generic and bland lately, perhaps as the result of this NRO Director's memo, but the NROL-41 patch above is beautiful. And, with hindsight, offering some clues (to what we now already know from our own observations).

The clue is in the heroine archer. She is aiming for the setting sun (i.e., westwards). I feel this could very well be an allusion to the unusual retrograde (westward) orbit of the FIA 1 Radar.

The purple 'vermicelli' pattern in the nighttime earth actually includes a few character combinations, i.e. acronyms, of units and organizations connected to the launch. Recognizable are amongst others 'NRO', and what appears to be '4 SLS' and 'LRS' or 'LRSW'.

It would be interesting to know what the three white stars in the patch rim signify.

2003 dreams and 2010 facts about the Future Imagery Architecture (FIA) satellites

This article published in 2003 in the Army Space Journal contains the following quote on page 5 (lower part first column), regarding the Future Imagery Architecture (FIA) satellites:

"The satellites will also be farther out in Space and much harder to detect"

Seven years later, what has come true of this? Two FIA satellites have been launched: one (USA 193) failed spectacularly. The second, the FIA Radar 1/USA 215 (10-046A) was launched a month ago as NROL-41.

It is indeed farther away than the NRO's previous radar reconnaissance satellites, the Lacrosses. The Lacrosses move in orbits with altitudes of 640 km (Lacrosse 2) to 720 km (Lacrosse 5). The FIA Radar 1 moves in an orbit at 1100 km, about 1.6 times as high as the Lacrosses.

But the "harder to detect" has not come true, at least not with the FIA Radar 1. With a brightness reaching magnitude +3.5 on a favourable pass, it can be easily seen by the naked eye, even from the city center of Leiden (which has a population of about 140 000). It shows up brightly on images made with a simple off-the-shelf DSLR and 50 mm lens (see the image near the end of my previous post). When courtyard amateur astronomy nabs it that easy, it is hardly "hard to detect".

Again the FIA Radar 1 (NROL-41)

Last night was frosty and very, very clear. In the evening, I took pictures of the KH-12 USA 129 (96-072A), the HEO SDS 3-4 USA 179 (04-034A) and the geostationary ELINT USA 202/Mentor 4 (09-001A), low over the southeastern horizon. At the time of observation, it was some 4 degrees south of Jupiter.

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I took a quick shot at Jupiter too with the Carl Zeiss Sonnar MC 2.8/180, to capture the moons of Jupiter. Here is the image, at 100% pixel resolution:

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In the early morning, at 5:18 am local time, I watched and photographed a very fine pass of the FIA Radar 1 (10-046A) again. It attained a maximum brightness of +3.5 while crossing through Cassiopeia. Below is an image, showing the 'W' of Cassiopeia and the FIA Radar 1 trail (movement is from top to bottom).

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At last the FIA Radar 1 (NROL-41), and the first images with the new Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180

Last weekend saw my first observation, at last, of the payload of the NROL-41 launch: the FIA Radar 1 (2010-046A). At 4:25 am local time it made a pass in the northern sky over Polaris, and became visible to the naked eye at a brightness of mag +3.5. Below is one of the two pictures, plus a picture of the launch patch of NROL-41.

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The orbit of the satellite is unusual, as it is retrograde, and in fact resembles a retrograde version of the Lacrosse orbits. There is some speculation as to the why of this.

The object currently is actively manoeuvring: when I captured it, it was 34 seconds late with regard to just one day old elements after one such manoeuvre. The apparent intention is to create a frozen orbit.


A new lens added to the equipment

This weekend saw the first active use of a new piece of optics added to the repertoire: an old, DDR-made, Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180mm lens. The lens itself is renowned, for its sharpness. Originally made for 6x7 cameras, it provides very good sharpness from edge to edge on a DSLR image. Fitted with a P6 to EOS adapter, it works perfectly on my Canon EOS 450D. It yields almost twice the aperture of my EF 100/2.8, and hence will be used to capture faint distant objects such as Molniya orbit objects. The lens is of very heavy build: solid metal and glass with no plastics. It weights 1.5 kg!

Below is an image of the optics I am now using in my observations: a Canon EF 2.5/50 mm Macro used for LEO and some GEO objects; a Canon EF 2.8/100 mm Macro USM used fro MEO and HEO objects; and the Carl Zeiss Jena Sonnar MC 2.8/180 mm for HEO and GEO objects.

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The advantage of the lens is that it goes deeper in magnitude of the objects it captures. A disadvantage is that it has a smaller FOV (6.8 x 5.0 degrees) which, with the software I use for astrometry (AstroRecord), means I have to carefully select the part of the sky to aim for (it should have enough stars brighter than +8 and at last 3 stars with a Flamsteed number, as the AstroRecord sequence starts with identifying 3 of those after which it starts to auto-identify stars). Especially the requirement of the 3 Flamsteed numbers in such a small FOV is limiting.
Anoher drwaback of this lens is that with 1.5 kg it is heavy! It is at the edge of what my lightweight camera tripod can carry, and hence vulnerable to vibrations.

On October 9 and 10 I used the lens to capture two Molniya-orbit (HEO) objects: USA 184 (06-027A), and USA 198 (07-060A, SDS 3F5). As a stray, it also captured another Molniya, the Russian US-KS Oko IR missile detection platform Kosmos 2393 (02-059A), and an old Russian rocket body in LEO (Kosmos 411 r, 71-041J). The image sequence shows that Kosmos 2393 was flaring at that time (20:14:02 - 20:14:12 UTC, 9 Oct 2010)

Below are two parts (at full pixel resolution) of one image that contained both USA 184 and Kosmos 2393 (the latter close to the edge of the image); and one of the images of USA 198.

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