New North Korean launch (Malligyong-2) upcoming [UPDATED]

click map to enlarge

Navigational Warnings (HYDROPAC 1800/24) have appeared for a new North Korean satellite launch, the launch of their second military reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-2, from Sohae. North Korea also informed the Government of Japan of the upcoming launch.

The three hazard areas A to C  from the Navigational Warning are the same as those for the Malligyong-1 launch half a year ago (21 November 2023 - see this earlier blogpost). Quite likely therefore, the launch will go into a similar 97.4 degree inclined, 512 x 493 km Sun-synchronous orbit. Stage 2 and stage 3 will do a double dogleg.The launch window runs to June 3.

It will be interesting to see what the RAAN of the orbital plane will be in relation to that of Malligyong-1.

This is the text of the Navigational Warning:

261806Z MAY 24
HYDROPAC 1800/24(GEN).
PHILIPPINE SEA.
YELLOW SEA.
CHINA.
DNC 11, DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   IN PROGRESS UNTIL 031500Z JUN
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 36-06.93N 123-33.12E, 35-24.52N 123-22.78E,
      35-20.02N 123-48.62E, 36-02.43N 123-59.18E.
   B. 34-05.90N 123-01.98E, 33-23.47N 122-51.88E,
      33-16.53N 123-29.67E, 33-58.97N 123-40.07E.
   C. 14-54.17N 128-40.10E, 11-19.30N 129-10.83E,
      11-26.82N 129-54.13E, 15-01.70N 129-24.05E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 030600Z JUN 24.

UPDATE: further speculation as to what could be the launch time in a follow-up post here.

UPDATE 2:  launch was near 13:50 UTC (May 27, 2024) and failed due to in-flight explosion of the first stage.

UPDATE 3: The North Korean State Press Agency KCNA calls the satellite in the failed launch "Malligyong-1-1" and indicates first stage failure caused the mishap, related to the "reliability" of a new LOX + petroleum engine. The wording is somewhat ambiguous on whether it concerns a new kind of rocket or a Chollima-1 stage: they do not name the rocket type, but mention a "new-type satellite carrier rocket" . 

It should be noted that during the previous Malligyong-1 launch, the Chollima-1 first stage also blew up, somewhat after separation of the second stage (so it did no harm to the payload at the time). Here is footage of that occasion.

North Korea successfully launches the Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite

image: KCNA

 

On 21 November 2023 at 13:42:28 UTC, according to the State News Agency KCNA, North Korea succesfully launched its new Malligyong-1 military reconnaissance satellite to orbit. The launch was from Sohae platform 2 using a (also new) Chollima-1 rocket. 

This was the third launch attempt. Two earlier attempts, on May 31 (see this blogpost) and August 23 (see this blogpost) failed to reach orbit due to malfunctions of respectively the second and third Chollima stages.

Yesterday's sucessful launch happened 1h 18m before the window from the published Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 3667/23 (see earlier blogpost here) opened, hence taking everybody by surprise.

KCNA reports that orbit insertion was at 13:54:13 UTC.

The US Military Space Tracking network CSpOC has published orbits for two objects resulting from this launch, confirming the North Korean claim of a successful orbit insertion. 

Object A (nr 58400, 2023-179A) is likely the payload, Malligyong-1, and is in a 97.43 degree inclined, 512 x 493 km sun-synchronous orbit. 

Object B (nr 58401, 2023-179B) is likely the Chollima-1 upper stage and is in a 97.41 degree inclined, 512 x 467 km orbit.

The orbit of the payload is a Sun-synchronous orbit with a repeating ground track. It results in daily transits over Pyongyang around 10:00 and 22:00 local time, with a ground track that repeats itself each five days. This is consistent with a function as an optical reconnaissance satellite.

 

I analysed the orbital trajectory in relation to the positions of the hazard zones from Navigational Warning HYDROPAC 3667/23. 

Earlier this year, in connection to the first launch attempt, there was a discussion whether: 

(1) a multiple dogleg was involved, or;

(2) a direct orbit insertion with post-separation restart and dogleg manoeuvering of the second stage, or;

(3) a dogleg manoeuvre of the second stage pre-separation with insertion into a 78-degree inclined non-SSO orbit. 

The reason for the discussion, was that the splashdown area for stage 2 east of the Philippines, was out of line with the splashdown areas for stage one and the fairings. The direction marked by the splashdown areas for the first stage and fairings would actually match a direct SSO insertion. A detailed discussion of the issue is in this previous blogpost on the May launch attempt.

We now have an answer, based on the position of the orbit at orbit insertion: a double dogleg by both the second and third stages was involved, as illustrated below:

click map to enlarge

After separation from the first stage, stage two made a dogleg eastward. After separation from the second stage, stage three then made another dogleg westward, and next brought the payload to the orbit insertion point, the stage itself also attaining orbit in that process (where it is now space debris).

(note: the manoeuvers were likely a bit less 'sharp' than in the illustration above)

The resulting orbit is basically what would have been achieved with a direct insertion along the original launch azimuth, but with the RAAN shifted by 4.2 degrees. The double dog-leg was probably chosen to avoid the second stage falling too close to the Philippines or (in case it underperformed) on China or Taiwan.

[update] Some interesting footage has appeared on the internet from a South Korean all-sky meteor camera operated by Yonsei University. It shows the first and second stage, with the first stage blowing up after separation of the second stage. This could well have been deliberate (to avoid intact hardware recovery by South Korea: or because of range safety), but can also have been accidental (see for example how the Starship stage 1 accidentally blew up just a few days earlier). [end]

Here are a few photo's of the launch, from the North Korean State News Agency KCNA:

"Thar She Goes! No Kablooih this time!"

North Korea to try a third time to launch its Chollima-1 rocket and Malligyong-1 satellite coming days [UPDATED]

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UPDATE 21 Nov 2023:  

North Korea launched the satellite on 21 Nov 13:42 GMT (1h 18m before opening of the window from the Navigational Warnings!) and claims the launch was successful.

A Navigational Warning, HYDROPAC 3667/23, has appeared today that suggests that North Korea will do a third attempt to launch their new military reconnaisance satellite Malligyong-1 on their new Chollima-1 space launch vehicle the coming days, perhaps as early as to morrow 21 November.

They tried twice before: on May 31 (see this blogpost) and on August 23 (see this blogpost). During the first attempt on May 31 the second stage failed; during the second attempt on August 23, the third stage self-destructed. Maybe they will get it right this time.

The launch window runs from November 21 15:00 UTC to November 30 15:00 UTC, based on the Navigational Warning.

The locations of the three hazard areas from the Navigational Warning are similar to those for the May and August launch attempts: Areas A and B (fairings and first stage splashdown) are southwest of Sohae in the direction towards China and Taiwan, and Area C, the second stage splash-down area, is east of the Philippines. See the map above. 

As discussed before in the context of the May launch, the location of Area C suggests that a dog-leg by the second stage is involved: either before third stage release, or after.

This is the text of the Navigational Warning:

201932Z NOV 23
HYDROPAC 3667/23(91,92,94).
EAST CHINA SEA.
PHILIPPINE SEA.
YELLOW SEA.
CHINA.
DNC 11, DNC 23.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING 
   211500Z TO 301500Z NOV IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 36-02.44N 123-59.18E, 36-06.94N 123-33.11E,
      35-24.52N 123-22.78E, 35-20.02N 123-48.62E.
   B. 33-58.97N 123-40.07E, 34-05.90N 123-01.99E,
      33-23.47N 122-51.88E, 33-16.54N 123-29.66E.
   C. 15-01.70N 129-24.05E, 14-54.17N 128-40.10E,
      11-19.30N 129-10.84E, 11-26.81N 129-54.13E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301600Z NOV 23.

During the previous two launches, Japan and South Korea acted ridiculously panicky, sounding sirens and telling civilians to take shelter. This is however a pre-announced space launch, not an unannounced ballistic missile launch, on a trajectory that avoids flying over significant pieces of land surface. Sounding sirens and telling people  to take shelter, is an over-reaction. Hopefully they will act less panicky this time, as this kind of panic serves no purpose.