An upcoming French SLBM test in the Atlantic, ARRW, and a failed Minuteman test in the Pacific

click map to enlarge

 

click image to enlarge

While strong Autumn storms and rainshowers (the image above is an APT image my radio received from NOAA 19 this morning, showing storm Ciarán over the Channel) are making satellite observations impossible, various missile test activities the past and upcoming weeks keep me occupied.

In a previous post I wrote about a Missile Defense test, FTM-48 north of Hawaii on October 25, and indications for another LRHW test from Cape Canaveral (it is unknown whether the latter test happened: FTM-48 reportedly was a success).

In this post, I will write about three other missile tests. 

 

French M51 SLBM test

First, an upcoming French M51 SLBM test to be launched from DGA Essais de missiles near Biscarrosse on the southwest coast of France. Its trajectory is over the Gulf of Biscaye and northern Atlantic towards a target area some 830 km south of Saint-Pierre et Miquelon (two French islands in front of the Newfoundland coast). 

Two Navigational Warnings (HYDROLANT 2484/23 and NAVAREA IV 1273/23 ) have appeared that indicate the test, with a window running from November 6 to December 1. Below is a map with the hazard zones for this test and the text of the Navigational Warnings:

click map to enlarge

311957Z OCT 23
HYDROLANT 2484/23(36,37,38).
BAY OF BISCAY.
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z
   DAILY 06 NOV THRU 01 DEC
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 44-26.33N 001-15.67W, 44-28.00N 001-20.00W,
      44-35.00N 001-27.75W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W,
      44-23.50N 002-25.00W, 44-14.75N 001-35.75W,
      44-17.25N 001-26.75W, 44-18.00N 001-17.00W.
   B. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 45-22.57N 006-11.45W,
      45-05.33N 006-16.65W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W.
   C. 45-14.20N 005-17.58W, 44-57.02N 005-23.05W,
      44-23.50N 002-24.98W, 44-44.75N 002-17.25W.
   D. 47-08.05N 014-18.15W, 47-20.18N 017-10.22W,
      45-33.87N 017-23.13W, 45-22.12N 014-36.47W.
   E. 47-05.02N 029-54.25W, 46-58.67N 031-53.87W,
      46-11.73N 031-47.78W, 46-17.98N 029-49.87W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.


020945Z NOV 23
NAVAREA IV 1273/23(14).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0200Z TO 1200Z DAILY
   06 NOV THRU 01 DEC IN AREA WITHIN
   80 MILES OF 39-21.36N 057-43.60W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 011300Z DEC 23.//

The indicated range for this test is about 5100 km, which is somewhat less than the test on 28 April 2021, as can be seen in this map comparing the two tests:

click map to enlarge

The test involves a manoeuvre changing the heading of the missile somewhere after jettison of the third stage. The shorter range, and closer range to the splashdown zones of the stages, could indicate either a more loftet test or (more likely) a heavier payload.

UPDATE:

The Navigational Warnings have been re-issued for Nov 16 - Dec 1 and adding an additional time window (18:00-23:59 UTC):

161904Z NOV 23
HYDROLANT 2631/23(36,37,38).
BAY OF BISCAY.
NORTH ATLANTIC.
FRANCE.
DNC 08.
1. MISSILE OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 1200Z AND
   1800Z TO 2359Z DAILY 16 NOV THRU 01 DEC
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 44-18.00N 001-17.00W, 44-17.25N 001-26.75W,
   44-14.75N 001-35.75W, 44-23.50N 002-25.00W,
   44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-35.00N 001-27.75W,
   44-28.00N 001-20.00W, 44-26.33N 001-15.67W.
B. 45-22.57N 006-11.45W, 45-05.33N 006-16.65W,
   44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W.
C. 44-57.02N 005-23.05W, 45-14.20N 005-17.58W,
   44-44.75N 002-17.25W, 44-23.50N 002-24.98W.
D. 47-20.18N 017-10.22W, 45-33.87N 017-23.13W,
   45-22.12N 014-36.47W, 47-08.05N 014-18.15W.
E. 46-58.67N 031-53.87W, 46-11.73N 031-47.78W,
   46-17.98N 029-49.87W, 47-05.02N 029-54.25W.
2. CANCEL HYDROLANT 2628/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 020100Z DEC 23.

UPDATE 18 Nov 2023:

The SLBM test happened this evening, 18 Nov 2023, around 18:20 UTC. Several spectacular images and video footage of illuminated exhaust cloluds were obtained from France, Spain and Italy.

US AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic test

On the other side of the World, in the Northwest Pacific between California and Hawaii, another AGM-183 ARRW hypersonic missile test appears to be on the calendar for November 4th, with an alternative window between Nov 7 and 13, as indicated by this Navigational Warning:

300930Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 760/23(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 041200Z TO 042030Z NOV,
   ALTERNATE 1300Z TO 2130Z DAILY 07 AND 13 NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 31-55.63N 127-43.18W, 33-12.37N 122-41.36W,
      33-06.52N 119-53.89W, 32-55.31N 119-51.90W,
      32-03.13N 122-28.33W, 31-40.94N 127-39.48W.
   B. 28-34.12N 135-59.93W, 30-09.63N 136-34.60W,
      30-52.95N 133-51.97W, 29-16.77N 133-19.65W.
   C. 26-17.92N 141-50.77W, 27-26.72N 142-21.67W,
      28-20.65N 139-47.33W, 27-11.27N 139-17.77W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 132230Z NOV 23.//

click map to enlarge

 The areas are similar to earlier known or suspected ARRW tests:

click map to enlarge

This missile must be one of the last of the (scrapped) AGM-183 program left.

Failed Minuteman-III ICBM test

Meanwhile, November 1 saw what should have been a rather routine Minuteman-III ICBM test from Vandenberg to Illegini Island, Kwajalein, going awry.

According to the Air Force Global Strike Command, an anomaly occurred and the missile was terminated in flight. A nice photograph of the launch is here.

Below is the map with the trajectory the missile should have flown, and the relevant Navigational Warnings:

click map to enlarge

260936Z OCT 23
NAVAREA XII 749/23(18,19,81).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 01 AND 02 NOV:
   A. 0631Z TO 1335Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 121-25.00W, 34-40.00N 120-54.00W,
      34-46.00N 120-37.00W, 34-57.00N 120-37.00W,
      34-58.00N 120-58.00W, 34-58.00N 121-24.00W.
   B. 0631Z TO 1340Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-19.00N 124-36.00W, 34-40.00N 124-39.00W,
      34-56.00N 121-59.00W, 34-36.00N 121-56.00W.
   C. 0631Z TO 1347Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      32-30.00N 137-13.00W, 32-48.00N 137-18.00W,
      33-04.00N 136-01.00W, 32-45.00N 135-56.00W.
   D. 0631Z TO 1431Z IN AREA BOUND BY
      14-36.00N 175-34.00E, 14-54.00N 175-13.00E,
      14-35.00N 174-55.00E, 14-23.00N 174-49.00E,
      14-17.00N 174-54.00E, 14-17.00N 175-15.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021531Z NOV 23.//


270329Z OCT 23
HYDROPAC 3397/23(81).
NORTH PACIFIC.
MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DNC 12.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 010700Z TO 011411Z NOV,
   ALTERNATE 020700Z TO 021411Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   A. 09-53.00N 168-50.00E, 09-55.00N 168-47.00E,
      09-32.00N 168-09.00E, 09-24.00N 167-35.00E,
      09-09.00N 167-08.00E, 08-45.00N 167-23.00E,
      09-01.00N 167-49.00E, 08-51.00N 168-22.00E,
      08-54.00N 168-32.00E, 09-18.00N 169-10.00E,
      09-20.00N 169-11.00E.
   B. 11-08.00N 172-02.00E, 12-18.00N 171-37.00E
      13-20.00N 170-42.00E, 13-28.00N 170-33.00E
      13-20.00N 170-07.00E, 13-14.00N 170-00.00E,
      13-07.00N 169-54.00E, 12-01.00N 170-24.00E,
      11-54.00N 170-31.00E, 10-59.00N 171-14.00E,
      10-52.00N 171-22.00E, 10-57.00N 171-47.00E,
      10-59.00N 171-54.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 021511Z NOV 23.//

Another Hypersonic glider test (likely AGM-183A ARRW) upcoming, in the Pacific [updated]

click map to enlarge

Last weekend saw a scrubbed Hypersonic Missile test from Cape Canaveral, Florida (see a previous post). It looks that another Hypersonic Missile test is upcoming next week, this time in the Pacific in front of California. Lines of evidence point to this Pacific test being another test of the hypersonic AGM-183 ARRW.

This set of three Navigational Warnings (plotted in the map above) have appeared for March 13, 14:00 to 21:00 UTC (with alternative dates from March 15 to 22):

080916Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 108/23(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   33-17.29N 120-27.17W, 33-39.52N 120-59.00W,
   33-50.62N 121-43.39W, 33-59.90N 123-10.45W,
   34-00.35N 124-00.97W, 32-33.23N 129-06.23W,
   31-49.78N 128-56.57W, 32-20.90N 123-43.58W,
   32-49.13N 122-03.11W, 33-03.88N 120-31.73W,
   33-17.29N 120-27.17W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//


080933Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 109/23(18,19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   31-26.77N 133-15.50W, 30-43.27N 135-59.02W,
   29-07.80N 135-24.00W, 29-50.62N 132-42.88W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//


080940Z MAR 23
NAVAREA XII 110/23(19).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 131400Z TO 132100Z MAR,
   ALTERNATE 1400Z TO 2100Z DAILY 15 AND 22 MAR
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   28-26.27N 139-49.91W, 27-26.70N 142-21.68W,
   26-19.10N 141-47.66W, 27-18.04N 139-17.14W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 222200Z MAR 23.//

The locations are very similar to those for the first succesful ARRW test of 9 December 2022, indicating that this could be another AGM-183 ARRW test. [update: now confirmed]

See the map below, where I have plotted Navigational Warnings for the 9 December 2022 ARRW test (red: NAVAREA XII 935, 936 and 937, 2022) and the upcoming test (blue: NAVAREA XII 108, 109 and 110, 2023):

click map to enlarge

The two western-most areas are 100% similar. The launch area in the Point Mugu range in front of the California coast is very similar as well.

The AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) is a missile that is airlaunched from a B52 Stratofortress. A booster missile accellerates a Hypersonic glider to hypersonic speeds of over Mach 5: the Hypersonic glider then is detached from the missile and glides to the target area.

ARRW Test flights in April and July 2021 failed. Two successful booster test flights were conducted in 2022. A first test flight of te full operational prototype on 9 December 2022 was successful.

AGM-183 ARRW under the wing of a B52 during a captive carry test in June 2019
(photo Wikimedia/U.S. Air Force photo by Christopher Okula)

UPDATE 26 March 2023:

It is now confirmed that this concerned an AGM-183A ARRW test. The test happened on March 13.

"The test met several of the objectives" according to the US Air Force (the several perhaps meaning that not everything went well... [update 28 March 2023: indeed, the Air Force Secretary now said as much, and it looks like ARRW program might be in trouble]). 

On March 13, several MDA aircraft were in the air over the eastern Pacific, including HALO2 and HALO51. A Boeing 747-E4B briefly visited the area as well.

A possible missile test (AGM-183 ARRW, or not?) in the Pacific on July 10

 

Three related Navigational Warnings have appeared (NAVAREA XII  nr 304, 305 and 306) that together seem to define the trajectory of a missile test in the Pacific on July 10 between 9:00 and 18:00 UT, with a backup date on July 13:

 060344Z JUL 21
 NAVAREA XII 304/21(18).
 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
 CALIFORNIA.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 100900Z TO 101800Z JUL,
    ALTERNATE 130900Z TO 131800Z JUL
    IN AREA BOUND BY
    33-08-45N 121-27-34W, 33-27-41N 121-29-48W,
    33-33-57N 120-11-14W, 33-14-46N 120-09-15W.
 2. THIS MSG 131900Z JUL 21.

 060353Z JUL 21
 NAVAREA XII 305/21(18).
 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 100900Z TO 101800Z JUL,
    ALTERNATE 130900Z TO 131800Z JUL
    IN AREA BOUND BY
    32-32-16N 129-10-43W, 32-08-05N 131-47-11W,
    31-53-04N 131-45-39W, 32-17-48N 129-09-11W.
 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 131900Z JUL 21.

 060445Z JUL 21
 NAVAREA XII 306/21(19).
 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
 1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 100900Z TOP 101800Z JUL,
    ALTERNATE 130900Z TO 131800Z JUL
    IN AREA BOUND BY
    31-13-21N 136-21-34W, 31-04-36N 137-16-57W,
    30-49-37N 137-15-27W, 31-01-22N 136-20-03W.
 2. CANCEL THIS MSG 131900Z JUL 21.

Below I have plotted the areas from these three Navigational Warnings on a map:

click map to enlarge

The three areas seem to define a ballistic trajectory for a missile fired, either from a ship, submarine or aircraft, in the Point Mugu Sea Range near the Channel Islands of California, in the general direction of (but maybe not as far as) Hawaii. The distance between the easternmost and westernmost area from the Navigational Warnings is about 1600 km. The distance to Hawaii is about 3950 km.

The question is whether the apparent line-up with the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Hawaii (for which there is a perpetual Navigational Warning) is coincidence or not (the map below shows a simple ballistic trajectory from the esternmost area in the Point Mugu Sea Range to Hawaii PMRF: the three areas and PMRF line up well):

click map to enlarge

If the line-up with Hawaii is coincidence, i.e. if we ignore a possible target area near Hawaii, then one option is that this is a flight test of the AGM-183A ARRW (Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon), a hypersonic missile launched from a B-52 aircraft. Little is known about the range of this new missile, and estimates differ: from 925 km to a quoted "almost 1000 miles". 

The latter is somewhat similar to the ~1600 km range between the easternmost area (NAVAREA XII 304) and westernmost area (NAVAREA XII 306) from the current Navigational Warnings. However, the similarity between "925 km" and "almost 1000" also makes me wonder whether kilometer and miles were mixed up in the latter statement. 1600 km equals 994 statute miles, or 863 nautical miles. 

Early June 2021, a test firing of AGM-183A was announced to probably take place this month (July 2021), which is one reason to suspect a connection of these Navigational Warnings to AGM-183.

If these Navigational Warnings indeed do refer the announced July AGM-183 test, then area 304 is where the missile is fired (from an airborne B-52), area 305 where the booster stage splashes down, and area 306 likely the missile target area.

The last (failed) test attempt of AGM-183A was in April, according to sources. It failed because the missile refused to separate from the aircraft.

The areas from the three July 10 Navigational Warnings are 100% identical those those of three earlier Navigational Warnings issued for May 17 (which I at that time, mistakenly probably, thought might be an SLBM test): Navigational Warnings NAVAREA XII nr 210, 211 and 212:

 

Some sort of (SLBM?) #Missile test in the Pacific is indicated in Navigational Warnings for May 17.
I've not been able to find a corresponding target area in the Marshall Islands so far.@planet4589 @nukestrat @wslafoy @mhanham pic.twitter.com/QP5neGR7DT

— Dr Marco Langbroek 💉x2 #Vaccinate (@Marco_Langbroek) May 13, 2021

So either there was an aborted/failed test attempt in May as well, or these warnings (both the current and those for May 17) do not refer to AGM-183A.

The AGM-183A ARRW is a hypersonic missile fired from a B-52 aircraft. A rocket stage initially propels it and brings it to high altitude at the edge of space (i.e. not as high as an ICBM which truly enters space), after which it glides down and attains hypersonic speeds up to 6.86 km/s. It is still in its experimental phase with, as far as known, no successful test flight yet.

AGM-183 under the wing of a B-52 during a Captive Carry test. Image: US DoD (Giancarlo Casem)

 

EDIT: just after I hit the "publish" button,  Hans Kristensen alerted me to the arrival of an Ohio-class Nuclear Missile submarine in San Diego at July 7th. So, maybe an SLBM test after all (but not a standard Trident-II D5 test then, as the positions of the drop zones do not match with earlier Trident tests).

UPDATE 11 July 2021:

This Navigational Warning cancelling warnings NAVAREA XII 304, 305 and 306 just appeared, the wording of which ("operations completed") suggests that something did take place:

101832Z JUL 21
NAVAREA XII 314/21(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
CANCEL NAVAREA XII 304/21, 305/21, 306/21
AND THIS MSG, OPERATIONS COMPLETED.