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. 2020 Mar 18;10(1):4947.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-61962-8.

Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

Affiliations

Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

Eslam M Hosni et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

In the last few years, significant changes in climate have had a disparate effect on biodiversity. The influences of these changes are random and unpredictable. The resurgence of insect pests, especially of medical and veterinary importance, often corresponds with climate changes. The Old World screwworm, Chrysomya bezziana, is one of the most important myiasis-causing flies that parasitize warm-blooded animals in the Eastern Hemisphere. We used a spatial distribution modeling approach to estimate the consequences of climatic changes on the potential geographic distribution of this insect throughout the world currently and in the future. A Maxent model used occurrence data from 104 localities and 19 climatic factors to predict the suitable habitat regions throughout the world. Two representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5, were used to forecast the future distribution of C. bezziana in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model for C. bezziana provided a satisfactory result, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.855 (±0.001). Furthermore, the True Skilled Statistics value is equal to 0.67. These values indicate the significant influence on the model of the ecology of this fly species. Jackknife test indicated that temperature variables play a significant role in C. bezziana dynamics. The resultant models indicated the areas at risk of invasion by potential serious medical/veterinary issues, especially in countries with a large livestock production.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Environmental envelope model of recorded points of Chrysomya bezziana, the envelope showing the wide range of Annual precipitation (Bio 12) against an effective small range of Annual mean temperature (Bio 1).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Jackknife test for Chrysomya bezziana showing the most effective environmental variables.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Response curves of the most relevant environmental factors affecting the distribution of Chrysomya bezziana; the shown values are average of ten replicate runs.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Current potential distribution of Chrysomya bezziana with three zonation areas in South America, the Middle East region and Australia.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Predicted future distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 8.5) of climate conditions in 2050.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Predicted future distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 8.5) of climate conditions in 2070.

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