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. 2017 Nov;22(46):17-00710.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.46.17-00710.

Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017

Shinya Tsuzuki  1 , Hyojung Lee  1 , Fuminari Miura  1   2 , Yat Hin Chan  1 , Sung-Mok Jung  1 , Andrei R Akhmetzhanov  1 , Hiroshi Nishiura  1
Affiliations

Dynamics of the pneumonic plague epidemic in Madagascar, August to October 2017

Shinya Tsuzuki et al. Euro Surveill. 2017 Nov.

Abstract

Transmission potential and severity of pneumonic plague in Madagascar were assessed. Accounting for reporting delay, the reproduction number was estimated at 1.73. The case fatality risk was estimated as 5.5%. Expected numbers of exported cases from Madagascar were estimated across the world and all estimates were below 1 person from August to October, 2017.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Case fatality ratio; Outbreak; Yersinia pestis; importation; risk assessment.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Epidemic curves of plague cases in Madagascar, August – October 2017
Figure 2
Figure 2
Transmission potential of primary pneumonic plague during the epidemic in Madagascar, August – October 2017
Figure 3
Figure 3
Expected number of pneumonic plague cases travelling from Madagascar, 1 August–31 October 2017
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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