Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2016 Apr 28:16:363.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3026-9.

Modelling the impact of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular disease mortality for comparative risk assessments: an overview

Jürgen Rehm  1   2   3   4   5 , Kevin D Shield  6   7 , Michael Roerecke  6 , Gerrit Gmel  6   8   9
Affiliations

Modelling the impact of alcohol consumption on cardiovascular disease mortality for comparative risk assessments: an overview

Jürgen Rehm et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Although alcohol consumption has long been considered as a risk factor for chronic disease, the relationship to cardiovascular disease (CVD) is complex and involves at least two dimensions: average volume of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking. The objective of this contribution was to estimate the burden of CVD mortality caused by alcohol consumption.

Methods: Risk assessment modelling with alcohol-attributable CVD mortality as primary outcome. The mortality burden of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke (IS) attributable to alcohol consumption was estimated using attributable-fraction methodology. Relative Risk (RR) data for IHD and IS were obtained from the most comprehensive meta-analyses (except for Russia and surrounding countries where alcohol RR data were obtained from a large cohort study). Age-group specific RRs were calculated, based on large studies. Data on mortality were obtained from the World Health Organization's Global Health Estimates and alcohol consumption data were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Risk of former drinkers was modelled taking into account global differences in the prevalence of sick quitters among former drinkers. Alcohol-attributable mortality estimates for all other CVD causes except IHD and IS were obtained from the 2014 Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health.

Results: An estimated 780,381 CVD deaths (441,893 and 338,490 CVD deaths among men and women respectively) were attributable to alcohol consumption globally in 2012, accounting for 1.4 % of all deaths and 26.6 % of all alcohol-attributable deaths. This is in contrast to the previously estimated 1,128,273 CVD deaths attributable to alcohol consumption globally, and represents a decrease of 30.8 % in alcohol-attributable CVD mortality and of 10.6 % in the global burden of all alcohol-attributable deaths.

Conclusions: When the most comprehensive and recent systematic reviews and meta-analyses are taken as bases, the net impact of alcohol consumption on CVD is lower than previously estimated.

Keywords: Alcohol consumption; Cardiovascular disease; Global health; Ischaemic heart disease; Ischaemic stroke; Mortality.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Relative risk function for male drinkers for IHD, all ages combined, using population data from China
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Relative risk function for female drinkers for IHD, all ages combined, using population data from China
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. World Health Organization . Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2010. Description of the global burden of NCDs, their risk factors and determinants. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2011.
    1. Roerecke M, Rehm J. Alcohol intake revisited: risks and benefits. Curr Atheroscler Rep. 2012;14(6):556–562. doi: 10.1007/s11883-012-0277-5. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Puddey IB, Rakic V, Dimmitt SB, Beilin LJ. Influence of pattern of drinking on cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors—a review. Addiction. 1999;94:649–663. doi: 10.1046/j.1360-0443.1999.9456493.x. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Taylor B, Irving HM, Baliunas D, Roerecke M, Patra J, Mohapatra S, et al. Alcohol and hypertension: gender differences in dose–response relationships determined through systematic review and meta-analysis. Addiction. 2009;104(12):1981–1990. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2009.02694.x. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Roerecke M, Rehm J. The cardioprotective association of average alcohol consumption and ischaemic heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Addiction. 2012;107(7):1246–1260. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2012.03780.x. - DOI - PMC - PubMed