Calculating the Penguins Trade Values for Rakell and Rust

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ asking price for Bryan Rust and perhaps Rickard Rakell is self-described as “sky high.”

After the July 1 NHL free agent frenzy had subsided, Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas was eager to tell reporters that he was not giving up his scoring wingers cheaply. While teams across the league are looking for scoring help, and some are preparing to figuratively scrape the bottom of the barrel of the leftover free agents, the Penguins and Dubas are holding the last aces in the deck.

There has been talk of the Dallas Stars trading Jason Robertson or the St. Louis Blues dealing Jordan Kyrou, but that chatter seems to be mostly speculation growing to fill the void left by the scarcity of other news.

After all, the Vegas Golden Knights took the big prize when they executed a sign-and-trade for Mitch Marner, and the Florida Panthers dumped more water than an afternoon Miami thunderstorm on the market when they cleaned up all of their loose ends before July 1.

While the pretend trade rumors involve bigger names, the real talk surrounds the Penguins, notably Rust and Rakell.

Curiously, there has been little chatter about the two. Sure, everyone has opined that this team or that team should be interested. Or some preliminary calls have occurred, but no one from the top of the line reporters to even the least responsible in our industry has gotten a beat on Dubas’s efforts.

It speaks to how closely to his vest that Dubas is keeping his information. Or it speaks to the tepid interest after learning the price. No one really knows.

Comparables

But it was a significant part of PHN’s last two Live Chats. What are wingers genuinely worth on the trade market?

The first answer regarding their worth is cliche, but no less true: they are worth only what someone will pay.

Dubas may set the highest price he likes, but if he hopes to trade one or both, the price he commands will be determined by rival GMs’ perceived value.

The second answer relies more on past values than gut feeling. In 2022, former GM Ron Hextall pulled off perhaps his best move as GM. He acquired Rakell from the Anaheim Ducks for depth forwards Zach Aston-Reese, Dominik Simon, and a second-round pick.

It seemed to be quite the coup. But maybe it was just a solid trade?

**Earlier this off-season, the Buffalo Sabres zipped 60-point young winger JJ Peterka to Utah for a younger winger with promise (Josh Doan) and a young defenseman with snarl, Michael Kesselring.

Age is a big factor, and Rakell isn’t quite worth Doan and Kesselring, but he’s not far off, either.

**At the trade deadline, Brock Nelson was worth first and third-round picks and a recent first-rounder, Calum Ritchie, who was selected 27th overall in 2023, from the Colorado Avalanche. Nelson produced a bit more than either of the Penguins’ wingers over the past few seasons, and being a center further skews that comparison. Still, those are the closest comparables in recent transactions.

Neither Rust nor Rakell will fetch a one, a three, and a high-value prospect, but if you dial it back just a bit, you begin to see where they fit.

Ricakard Rakell

Rakell had a brilliant 2024-25 season, scoring 35 goals with 35 assists. He set career highs in goals and points. However, his 2023-24 season was underwater. He rebounded to score at a career pace, but his first 20 games were nightmarish, with only two goals and four assists in the first 22 games. He finished with only 37 points in 70 games.

In 2022-23, he was fine and dandy with 28 goals and 32 assists, playing with a mixture of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Since Rakell has clearly shown an ability to play well with talented centers and contribute top-line worthy offensive totals, his value is significant. Since he’s also shown he can have a brutal stretch, his career arc is something akin to a good player, but not in the realm of a Jake Guentzel or Robertson.

Of course, Rakell’s contract, which might have impeded trade two years ago, now looks like an absolute bargain. A team could get 30 to 35 goals for $5 million? But there is also a chance they get only 37 points. That matters.

Rakell can play either wing, he can shift modes from finisher to playmaker, and is solid defensively.

So, what is Rakell really worth? We’re going to add for inflation from 2022, and say a good B+ level prospect or young player, a draft pick in the 25th to 48th range (first half of the second round), and based on the value (or lack thereof) of the first two assets, perhaps a depth NHL player, such as a bottom-six forward, backup goalie, or third-pair defenseman type, whom Dubas could flip for another asset.

Of course, if Dubas can get a draft pick well under 25th or even 20th, or a young player that they really like, that changes the calculations.

Bryan Rust

Rust is difficult to pin down because, like its value, there are intangibles. On paper, Rust and Rakell should not be much different, but they very much are.

There’s as much emotion involved in the acquisition as there is value. Rust would be an extraordinary addition to a team that wants to learn how to win. Hello, Detroit Red Wings, Buffalo Sabres, Anaheim Ducks, or even the Ottawa Senators.

He would also be a great addition to any lineup because he’s been a consistent 20-goal scorer, and last season he netted a career high 31 goals. His career has been a steady, upward trend as he’s risen from a fourth-line grinder role to earning time with the Penguins’ top centers. And he has left little doubt, he is not a creation of Crosby or Malkin, but an asset to them with gritty, tenacious play, finishing, forechecking, and something in short supply across the league–consistency.

In the analytics room, Rust is worth just about what Rakell is worth: a good draft pick in the same range, a good prospect or young player in the same range, and perhaps a little more to finish the deal. However, Rust is sought after because he can provide the tangibles and intangibles.

Could he turn Detroit, Buffalo, or even the Anaheim Ducks into a playoff team? Well, yes. Not only does that step in success mean team growth, it also means fan growth and millions in playoff revenues.

So, every GM who calls can argue what Rust is worth on paper, but Dubas has been wise to hold on because those intangible values can also help the Penguins get from here to there in their transition.

That “sky-high” price for Rust could well be a guaranteed first-round pick and a young player who projects to be able to fill Rust’s role within a season or two.

Of course, the other teams can not pay it, and continue on their plodding paths of frustration, planning, and re-planning. And Dubas is free to up the price even further. That’s the cost of the intangibles.