Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
4 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology (77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 - États-Unis)
Article Dans Une Revue
Nature Geoscience
Année : 2022
4 MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology (77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 - États-Unis)
5 UOR - University of Reading (Whiteknights, PO Box 217, READING, Berkshire, RG6 6AH, - Royaume-Uni) "> UOR - University of Reading
Résumé
ropical cyclones (TCs, also known as hurricanes and typhoons) generally form at low latitudes with access to the warm waters of the tropical oceans, but far enough off the equator to allow planetary rotation to cause aggregating convection to spin up into coherent vortices. Yet, current prognostic frameworks for TC latitudes make contradictory predictions for climate change. Simulations of past warm climates, such as the Eocene and Pliocene, show that TCs can form and intensify at higher latitudes than of those during pre-industrial conditions. Observations and model projections for the twenty-first century indicate that TCs may again migrate poleward in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which poses profound risks to the planet’s most populous regions. Previous studies largely neglected the complex processes that occur at temporal and spatial scales of individual storms as these are poorly resolved in numerical models. Here we review this mesoscale physics in the context of responses to climate warming of the Hadley circulation, jet streams and Intertropical Convergence Zone. We conclude that twenty-first century TCs will most probably occupy a broader range of latitudes than those of the past 3 million years as low-latitude genesis will be supplemented with increasing mid-latitude TC favourability, although precise estimates for future migration remain beyond current methodologies.
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Soumis le : jeudi 2 octobre 2025-08:52:44
Dernière modification le : jeudi 16 avril 2026-15:48:02
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- HAL Id : hal-03560276 , version 1
- DOI : 10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1
- WOS : 000735724700001
Citer
Joshua Studholme, Alexey V. Fedorov, Sergey Gulev, Kerry Emanuel, Kevin Hodges. Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates. Nature Geoscience, 2022, 15 (1), pp.14-28. ⟨10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1⟩. ⟨hal-03560276⟩
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