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<!DOCTYPE html>

<head>

<title>World population estimates - Wikipedia</title>

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</div>

<h1 id="firstHeading" class="firstHeading" lang="en">World population estimates</h1> <div id="bodyContent" class="mw-body-content">

<div id="siteSub" class="noprint">From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</div> <div id="contentSub"></div>

<div id="jump-to-nav"></div> <a class="mw-jump-link" href="#mw-head">Jump to navigation</a>

<a class="mw-jump-link" href="#p-search">Jump to search</a>

<div id="mw-content-text" lang="en" dir="ltr" class="mw-content-ltr"><div class="mw-parser-output"><p>This article lists estimates of <a href="/wiki/World_population" title="World population">world population</a>, as well as projections of <a href="/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth" title="Projections of population growth">future developments</a>. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the late medieval period are in the following ranges:</p>

<tr>

</tr>

<tr>

<td>population<br />

(in billions)</td>

</tr>

<tr>

<td>growth p.a.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2">[2]</a></sup></td>

</tr>

</table>

<p>Estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have <a href="/wiki/Confidence_interval" title="Confidence interval">confidence intervals</a>; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough idea of expert consensus can be gained by comparing the values given in independent publications. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits; for example, world population for the year 2012 was estimated at 7.02, 7.06 and 7.08 billion by the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Census_Bureau" title="United States Census Bureau">United States Census Bureau</a>, the <a href="/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau" title="Population Reference Bureau">Population Reference Bureau</a> and the <a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Department_of_Economic_and_Social_Affairs" title="United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs">United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs</a>, respectively, corresponding to a spread of estimates of the order of 0.8%.</p>

<p></p>

<h2>Contents</h2>

</div>

<ul>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-1"><a href="#Deep_prehistory"><span class="tocnumber">1</span> <span class="toctext">Deep prehistory</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-2"><a href="#Historical_population"><span class="tocnumber">2</span> <span class="toctext">Historical population</span></a>

<ul>

<li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-3"><a href="#Before_1950"><span class="tocnumber">2.1</span> <span class="toctext">Before 1950</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-2 tocsection-4"><a href="#1950_to_present"><span class="tocnumber">2.2</span> <span class="toctext">1950 to present</span></a></li>

</ul>

</li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-5"><a href="#Projections"><span class="tocnumber">3</span> <span class="toctext">Projections</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-6"><a href="#By_world_region"><span class="tocnumber">4</span> <span class="toctext">By world region</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-7"><a href="#References"><span class="tocnumber">6</span> <span class="toctext">References</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-8"><a href="#Further_reading"><span class="tocnumber">7</span> <span class="toctext">Further reading</span></a></li>

<li class="toclevel-1 tocsection-9"><a href="#External_links"><span class="tocnumber">8</span> <span class="toctext">External links</span></a></li>

</ul>

</div>

<p></p>

<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Deep_prehistory">Deep prehistory</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=1" title="Edit section: Deep prehistory">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>

<div role="note" class="hatnote navigation-not-searchable">Further information: <a href="/wiki/Paleodemography" title="Paleodemography">Paleodemography</a></div>

Graph of world population over the past 12,000 years (<a href="/wiki/Holocene" title="Holocene">Holocene</a>).</div>

</div>

<p>As a general rule, the confidence of estimates on historical world population decreases for the more distant past. Robust population data only exists for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in <a href="/wiki/Census_in_Egypt" class="mw-redirect" title="Census in Egypt">Ancient Egypt</a> and the <a href="/wiki/Achaemenid_Empire" title="Achaemenid Empire">Persian Empire</a>, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a></sup> Published estimates for the 1st century ("<a href="/wiki/AD_1" title="AD 1">AD 1</a>") suggest an uncertainty of the order of 50% (estimates range between 150 and 330 million). Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to "<a href="/wiki/10,000_BC" class="mw-redirect" title="10,000 BC">10,000 BC</a>", i.e. the <a href="/wiki/Holocene" title="Holocene">early Holocene</a>, when world population estimates range roughly between one and ten million (with an uncertainty of up to an order of magnitude).<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4">[4]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5">[5]</a></sup></p>

<p>Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the <a href="/wiki/Paleolithic" title="Paleolithic">Paleolithic</a>, are of a different nature. At this time human populations consisted entirely of non-sedentary <a href="/wiki/Hunter-gatherer" title="Hunter-gatherer">hunter-gatherer</a> populations, with <a href="/wiki/Anatomically_modern_humans" class="mw-redirect" title="Anatomically modern humans">anatomically modern humans</a> existing alongside <a href="/wiki/Archaic_humans" title="Archaic humans">archaic human varieties</a>, some of which are still ancestral to the modern human population due to <a href="/wiki/Archaic_human_admixture_with_modern_humans" title="Archaic human admixture with modern humans">interbreeding with modern humans</a> during the <a href="/wiki/Upper_Paleolithic" title="Upper Paleolithic">Upper Paleolithic</a>. Estimates of the size of these populations are a topic of <a href="/wiki/Paleoanthropology" title="Paleoanthropology">paleoanthropology</a>. A late human <a href="/wiki/Population_bottleneck" title="Population bottleneck">population bottleneck</a> is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the <a href="/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory" title="Toba catastrophe theory">Toba catastrophe</a>, when <i><a href="/wiki/Homo_sapiens" title="Homo sapiens">Homo sapiens</a></i> population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.<sup id="cite_ref-ambrose1998_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-ambrose1998-6">[6]</a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-robock2009_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-robock2009-7">[7]</a></sup> For the time of speciation of <i><a href="/wiki/Homo_sapiens" title="Homo sapiens">Homo sapiens</a></i>, some 200,000 years ago, an <a href="/wiki/Effective_population_size" title="Effective population size">effective population size</a> of the order of 10,000 to 30,000 individuals has been estimated, with an actual "census population" of early <i>Homo sapiens</i> of roughly 100,000 to 300,000 individuals.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8">[8]</a></sup></p>

<p><span id="Cumulative_population"></span><span id="Number_of_humans_who_have_ever_lived"></span> The question of "how many people have ever lived?" or "what percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today" can be traced to the 1970s.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9">[9]</a></sup> The more dramatic phrasing of "the living outnumber the dead" also dates to the 1970s, a time of <a href="/wiki/Population_explosion" class="mw-redirect" title="Population explosion">population explosion</a> and growing fears of <a href="/wiki/Human_overpopulation" title="Human overpopulation">human overpopulation</a> in the wake of <a href="/wiki/Decolonization" title="Decolonization">decolonization</a> and before the adoption of China's <a href="/wiki/One-child_policy" title="One-child policy">One-child policy</a>. The claim that "the living outnumber the dead" was never accurate (although it may be roughly accurate if only <a href="/wiki/Effective_population_size" title="Effective population size">ancestral population</a> is considered). <a href="/wiki/Arthur_C._Clarke" title="Arthur C. Clarke">Arthur C. Clarke</a> in <i><a href="/wiki/2001:_A_Space_Odyssey" title="2001: A Space Odyssey">2001: A Space Odyssey</a></i> (1968) has the claim that "Behind every man now alive stand 30 ghosts, for that is the ratio by which the dead outnumber the living", which was roughly accurate at the time of writing.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10">[10]</a></sup></p>

<p>Estimates of the "total number of people who have ever lived" is 107.6 billion as of 2011.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11">[11]</a></sup> The answer naturally depends on the definition of "people", i.e. is only <i><a href="/wiki/Homo_sapiens" title="Homo sapiens">Homo sapiens</a></i> to be counted, or all of genus <i><a href="/wiki/Homo" title="Homo">Homo</a></i>, but due to the small population sizes in the Lower Paleolithic, the order of magnitude of the estimate is not affected by the choice of cut-off date substantially more than by the uncertainty of estimates throughout the Neolithic to Iron Age.<sup id="cite_ref-12" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-12">[12]</a></sup> The estimate is more crucially affected by the estimate of <a href="/wiki/Infant_mortality" title="Infant mortality">infant mortalitys</a> vs. <a href="/wiki/Stillborn" class="mw-redirect" title="Stillborn">stillborn</a> infants, due to the very high infant mortality throughout the pre-modern period. An estimate on the "total number of people who have ever lived" as of 1995 was calculated by Haub (1995) at "about 105 billion births since the dawn of the human race" with a cut-off date at 50,000 BC (beginning of the Upper Paleolithic), and an inclusion of a high infant mortality rate throughout pre-modern history.<sup id="cite_ref-13" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-13">[13]</a></sup></p>

<h2><span class="mw-headline" id="Historical_population">Historical population</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=2" title="Edit section: Historical population">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h2>

<h3><span class="mw-headline" id="Before_1950">Before 1950</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=3" title="Edit section: Before 1950">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h3>

<p>The following table uses <a href="/wiki/Astronomical_year_numbering" title="Astronomical year numbering">astronomical year numbering</a> for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC (i.e. -10000 = 10,001 BC, etc.). The table starts counting around the <a href="/wiki/Late_Glacial_Maximum" class="mw-redirect" title="Late Glacial Maximum">Late Glacial Maximum</a> period, in which ice retreated and humans started to spread into the northern hemisphere.</p>

<p>From the beginning of the <a href="/wiki/Early_modern_period" title="Early modern period">early modern period</a> until the 20th century, world population has been characterized by a faster-than-exponential growth. For the period of <a href="/wiki/Classical_Antiquity" class="mw-redirect" title="Classical Antiquity">Classical Antiquity</a> to the <a href="/wiki/Middle_Ages" title="Middle Ages">Middle Ages</a>, roughly 500 BC to AD 1500, there has also been a general tendency of growth (estimated at roughly a factor 4 to 5 over the 2,000 year period), but not strictily <a href="/wiki/Monotonic_function" title="Monotonic function">monotonic</a>: A noticeable dip in world population is assumed due to the <a href="/wiki/Black_Death" title="Black Death">Black Death</a> in the mid-14th century.<sup id="cite_ref-Haub1650_14-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Haub1650-14">[14]</a></sup></p>

<tr>

<th><a href="/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau" title="Population Reference Bureau">Population Reference Bureau</a>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Department_of_Economic_and_Social_Affairs" title="United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs">United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs</a>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Angus_Maddison" title="Angus Maddison">Maddison</a>

</th>

<th>HYDE

<p>(2010)<sup class="noprint Inline-Template Template-Fact" style="white-space:nowrap;">[<i><a href="/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed" title="Wikipedia:Citation needed"><span title="This claim needs references to reliable sources. (January 2017)">citation needed</span></a></i>]</sup></p>

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/John_Tanton" title="John Tanton">Tanton</a>

</th>

<th>Biraben

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_McEvedy" title="Colin McEvedy">McEvedy</a> &

<p>Jones (1978)<sup id="cite_ref-Richard_Jones_1978_20-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Richard_Jones_1978-20">[20]</a></sup></p>

</th>

<th>Thomlinson

</th>

<th>Durand

</th>

<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_Clark_(economist)" title="Colin Clark (economist)">Clark</a>

</th>

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</table>

<h3><span class="mw-headline" id="1950_to_present">1950 to present</span><span class="mw-editsection"><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">[</span><a href="/w/index.php?title=World_population_estimates&action=edit&section=4" title="Edit section: 1950 to present">edit</a><span class="mw-editsection-bracket">]</span></span></h3>

<p>For times after <a href="/wiki/World_War_II" title="World War II">World War II</a>, demographic data of some accuracy becomes available for a significant number of countries, and population estimates are often given as grand totals of numbers (typically given by country) of widely diverging accuracies. Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding.</p>

<p>Taking these numbers at face value would be <a href="/wiki/False_precision" title="False precision">false precision</a>; in spite of being stated to four, seven or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best (estimates by the <a href="/wiki/United_States_Census_Bureau" title="United States Census Bureau">United States Census Bureau</a> and by the <a href="/wiki/United_Nations_Department_of_Economic_and_Social_Affairs" title="United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs">United Nations</a> differ by about 0.5%–1.5%).</p>

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<th><a href="/wiki/United_States_Census_Bureau" title="United States Census Bureau">United States Census Bureau</a>

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<th><a href="/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau" title="Population Reference Bureau">Population Reference Bureau</a>

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<th><a href="/wiki/Angus_Maddison" title="Angus Maddison">Maddison</a>

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<th>HYDE

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<th><a href="/wiki/John_Tanton" title="John Tanton">Tanton</a>

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<th>Biraben

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<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_McEvedy" title="Colin McEvedy">McEvedy</a> &

<p>Jones (1978)<sup id="cite_ref-Richard_Jones_1978_20-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Richard_Jones_1978-20">[20]</a></sup></p>

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<th>Thomlinson

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<th>Durand

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<th><a href="/wiki/Colin_Clark_(economist)" title="Colin Clark (economist)">Clark</a>

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