Retire MoveImportance[]

Matt14916 · mcostalba · commit 59a9bc935121 · 2013-12-29T10:33:39.000+01:00
Use a skew-logistic function to replace the
MoveImportance[] array.

Verified it does not regress at fixed number
of games both at short TC:
LLR: -2.91 (-2.94,2.94) [-1.50,4.50]
Total: 39457 W: 7539 L: 7538 D: 24380

And long TC:
ELO: -0.49 +-1.9 (95%) LOS: 31.0%
Total: 39358 W: 6135 L: 6190 D: 27033

bench: 7335588
diff --git a/src/timeman.cpp b/src/timeman.cpp
@@ -28,43 +28,26 @@ namespace {
 
   /// Constants
 
-  const int MoveHorizon  = 50;    // Plan time management at most this many moves ahead
+  const int MoveHorizon   = 50;   // Plan time management at most this many moves ahead
   const double MaxRatio   = 7.0;  // When in trouble, we can step over reserved time with this ratio
   const double StealRatio = 0.33; // However we must not steal time from remaining moves over this ratio
 
+  const double xscale     = 9.3;
+  const double xshift     = 59.8;
+  const double yscale     = 7780;
+  const double yshift     = 1e-3; // Larger than 0. Ensures a non-zero importance
+  const double skewfactor = 0.172;
 
-  // MoveImportance[] is based on naive statistical analysis of "how many games are still undecided
-  // after n half-moves". Game is considered "undecided" as long as neither side has >275cp advantage.
-  // Data was extracted from CCRL game database with some simple filtering criteria.
-  const int MoveImportance[512] = {
-    7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7780,
-    7780, 7780, 7780, 7780, 7778, 7778, 7776, 7776, 7776, 7773, 7770, 7768, 7766, 7763, 7757, 7751,
-    7743, 7735, 7724, 7713, 7696, 7689, 7670, 7656, 7627, 7605, 7571, 7549, 7522, 7493, 7462, 7425,
-    7385, 7350, 7308, 7272, 7230, 7180, 7139, 7094, 7055, 7010, 6959, 6902, 6841, 6778, 6705, 6651,
-    6569, 6508, 6435, 6378, 6323, 6253, 6152, 6085, 5995, 5931, 5859, 5794, 5717, 5646, 5544, 5462,
-    5364, 5282, 5172, 5078, 4988, 4901, 4831, 4764, 4688, 4609, 4536, 4443, 4365, 4293, 4225, 4155,
-    4085, 4005, 3927, 3844, 3765, 3693, 3634, 3560, 3479, 3404, 3331, 3268, 3207, 3146, 3077, 3011,
-    2947, 2894, 2828, 2776, 2727, 2676, 2626, 2589, 2538, 2490, 2442, 2394, 2345, 2302, 2243, 2192,
-    2156, 2115, 2078, 2043, 2004, 1967, 1922, 1893, 1845, 1809, 1772, 1736, 1702, 1674, 1640, 1605,
-    1566, 1536, 1509, 1479, 1452, 1423, 1388, 1362, 1332, 1304, 1289, 1266, 1250, 1228, 1206, 1180,
-    1160, 1134, 1118, 1100, 1080, 1068, 1051, 1034, 1012, 1001, 980, 960, 945, 934, 916, 900, 888,
-    878, 865, 852, 828, 807, 787, 770, 753, 744, 731, 722, 706, 700, 683, 676, 671, 664, 652, 641,
-    634, 627, 613, 604, 591, 582, 568, 560, 552, 540, 534, 529, 519, 509, 495, 484, 474, 467, 460,
-    450, 438, 427, 419, 410, 406, 399, 394, 387, 382, 377, 372, 366, 359, 353, 348, 343, 337, 333,
-    328, 321, 315, 309, 303, 298, 293, 287, 284, 281, 277, 273, 265, 261, 255, 251, 247, 241, 240,
-    235, 229, 218, 217, 213, 212, 208, 206, 197, 193, 191, 189, 185, 184, 180, 177, 172, 170, 170,
-    170, 166, 163, 159, 158, 156, 155, 151, 146, 141, 138, 136, 132, 130, 128, 125, 123, 122, 118,
-    118, 118, 117, 115, 114, 108, 107, 105, 105, 105, 102, 97, 97, 95, 94, 93, 91, 88, 86, 83, 80,
-    80, 79, 79, 79, 78, 76, 75, 72, 72, 71, 70, 68, 65, 63, 61, 61, 59, 59, 59, 58, 56, 55, 54, 54,
-    52, 49, 48, 48, 48, 48, 45, 45, 45, 44, 43, 41, 41, 41, 41, 40, 40, 38, 37, 36, 34, 34, 34, 33,
-    31, 29, 29, 29, 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 28, 27, 27, 27, 27, 27, 24, 24, 23, 23, 22, 21, 20, 20,
-    19, 19, 19, 19, 19, 18, 18, 18, 18, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 16, 16, 15, 15, 14, 14, 14, 12, 12, 11,
-    9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, 8,
-    8, 8, 8, 8, 7, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4,
-    4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2,
-    2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 };
-
-  int move_importance(int ply) { return MoveImportance[std::min(ply, 511)]; }
+
+  /// move_importance() is a skew-logistic function based on naive statistical
+  /// analysis of "how many games are still undecided after n half-moves". Game
+  /// is considered "undecided" as long as neither side has >275cp advantage.
+  /// Data was extracted from CCRL game database with some simple filtering criteria.
+
+  double move_importance(int ply) {
+
+    return yscale / pow((1 + exp((ply - xshift) / xscale)), skewfactor) + yshift;
+  }
 
 
   /// Function Prototypes
@@ -147,8 +130,8 @@ namespace {
     const double TMaxRatio   = (T == OptimumTime ? 1 : MaxRatio);
     const double TStealRatio = (T == OptimumTime ? 0 : StealRatio);
 
-    double thisMoveImportance = double(move_importance(currentPly) * slowMover) / 100;
-    int otherMovesImportance = 0;
+    double thisMoveImportance = (move_importance(currentPly) * slowMover) / 100;
+    double otherMovesImportance = 0;
 
     for (int i = 1; i < movesToGo; ++i)
         otherMovesImportance += move_importance(currentPly + 2 * i);
