I've had a chance to look at the picks properly and, assuming @zacitty is right here, then below is how I think the picks might have gone. I agree with @zacitty that it's hard to interpret the stuff about the L16 and L32 in any way other than ITV having second pick in both rounds. It feels like ITV put the BBC on the back foot at some point and that's how they've ended up with a better looking schedule (in my opinion!).
The BBC having to take Haiti v Scotland was an expected advantage for ITV. What I was not anticipating was the BBC feeling the need to take third picks in the L32 and L16 just in case they feature home nations. If the BBC were that concerned about those rounds, they should have prioritised second picks in those rounds over Scotland v Brazil.
1. Pick 1 SF - BBC
2. England v Croatia - ITV
3. England v Ghana - BBC
4. Pick 1 QF - ITV
5. Pick 1 L16 - BBC
6. Panama v England/Croatia v Ghana - ITV
7. Pick 1 L32 - BBC
8. Pick 2 SF - ITV
9. Scotland v Brazil/Morocco v Haiti - BBC
10. Scotland v Morocco - ITV
11. Canada v UEFA Path A - BBC
12. Pick 2 QF - ITV
13. Pick 3 QF - BBC
14. Pick 2 L32 - ITV
15. Pick 3 L32 - BBC
16. Pick 2 L16 - ITV
17. Pick 3 L16 - BBC
18. Switzerland v UEFA Path A - ITV
19. Haiti v Scotland - BBC
20. Switzerland v Canada/UEFA Path A v Qatar - ITV
21. France v Senegal - BBC
22. Norway v France/Senegal v IC Path 2 - ITV
23. Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire/Ecuador v Germany - BBC
24. Mexico v South Africa - ITV
25. Pick 4 L16 - BBC
26. Germany v Côte d'Ivoire - ITV
27. Brazil v Morocco - BBC
28. Netherlands v Japan - ITV
29. Belgium v Egypt - BBC
30. Belgium v Iran - ITV
31. Pick 4 L32 - BBC
32. Germany v Curaçao - ITV
33. USA v Australia - BBC
34. Qatar v Switzerland - ITV
35. Argentina v Austria - BBC
36. Pick 5 L16 - ITV
37. France v IC Path 2 - BBC
38. Pick 5 L32 - ITV
39. Pick 6 L32 - BBC
40. Pick 7 L32 - ITV
I'm 99% certain that the second pick was QF1, and that the third pick was R16-1.
Interesting. Taking Croatia at 3 and basically forcing ITV to take Ghana at 4 would surely have been the tactical play. Unless they aren’t as confident in England making the semis as taking that with the first pick would suggest.
I've had a chance to look at the picks properly and, assuming @zacitty is right here, then below is how I think the picks might have gone. I agree with @zacitty that it's hard to interpret the stuff about the L16 and L32 in any way other than ITV having second pick in both rounds. It feels like ITV put the BBC on the back foot at some point and that's how they've ended up with a better looking schedule (in my opinion!).
The BBC having to take Haiti v Scotland was an expected advantage for ITV. What I was not anticipating was the BBC feeling the need to take third picks in the L32 and L16 just in case they feature home nations. If the BBC were that concerned about those rounds, they should have prioritised second picks in those rounds over Scotland v Brazil.
1. Pick 1 SF - BBC
2. England v Croatia - ITV
3. England v Ghana - BBC
4. Pick 1 QF - ITV
5. Pick 1 L16 - BBC
6. Panama v England/Croatia v Ghana - ITV
7. Pick 1 L32 - BBC
8. Pick 2 SF - ITV
9. Scotland v Brazil/Morocco v Haiti - BBC
10. Scotland v Morocco - ITV
11. Canada v UEFA Path A - BBC
12. Pick 2 QF - ITV
13. Pick 3 QF - BBC
14. Pick 2 L32 - ITV
15. Pick 3 L32 - BBC
16. Pick 2 L16 - ITV
17. Pick 3 L16 - BBC
18. Switzerland v UEFA Path A - ITV
19. Haiti v Scotland - BBC
20. Switzerland v Canada/UEFA Path A v Qatar - ITV
21. France v Senegal - BBC
22. Norway v France/Senegal v IC Path 2 - ITV
23. Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire/Ecuador v Germany - BBC
24. Mexico v South Africa - ITV
25. Pick 4 L16 - BBC
26. Germany v Côte d'Ivoire - ITV
27. Brazil v Morocco - BBC
28. Netherlands v Japan - ITV
29. Belgium v Egypt - BBC
30. Belgium v Iran - ITV
31. Pick 4 L32 - BBC
32. Germany v Curaçao - ITV
33. USA v Australia - BBC
34. Qatar v Switzerland - ITV
35. Argentina v Austria - BBC
36. Pick 5 L16 - ITV
37. France v IC Path 2 - BBC
38. Pick 5 L32 - ITV
39. Pick 6 L32 - BBC
40. Pick 7 L32 - ITV
I also believe that Mexico v South Africa was higher up the list.
How much higher…? #22 instead of France v Norway - which could turn out to be a dead rubber with neither star striker on show - would make sense. Taking it instead of a premium knockout pick, less so.
@zacitty - taking the last 16 was the obvious insurance for the BBC given England not winning the group is a big part of the risk of England not making the semi final. The tricky thing for the BBC is not knowing how ITV would view the last 16.
@zacitty - taking the last 16 was the obvious insurance for the BBC given England not winning the group is a big part of the risk of England not making the semi final. The tricky thing for the BBC is not knowing how ITV would view the last 16.
I mean they’d still have got the Last 32 game but otherwise yes, that’s fair. Would have been a major shock if ITV, with all their commercial considerations, had risked the BBC having both of England’s biggest group games by taking the L16 at 4, but with the secretive system I suppose you couldn’t have completely ruled it out.
What I find a bit odd is that if ITV went QF with pick 2, then if I were the BBC, I'd have taken the Croatia match. And if ITV took the Last 16, I'd have then taken the Ghana match:
1. SF 1
2. QF 1
3. England v Croatia
4. L16 1
5. England v Ghana
What are ITV taking with pick 6? Perhaps the BBC wouldn't like the idea of having the three group games and the semi final if England make it but are ITV really going to not have a group game?
What I find a bit odd is that if ITV went QF with pick 2, then if I were the BBC, I'd have taken the Croatia match. And if ITV took the Last 16, I'd have then taken the Ghana match:
1. SF 1
2. QF 1
3. England v Croatia
4. L16 1
5. England v Ghana
What are ITV taking with pick 6? Perhaps the BBC wouldn't like the idea of having the three group games and the semi final if England make it but are ITV really going to not have a group game?
Exactly. Even if they were to have turned down Ghana at 4 there’s surely no way ITV would also have turned down Panama at six, so if the BBC had taken Croatia then they’d still have been guaranteed at least one of L16 or L32. By taking both they did cover themselves against whichever of those ends up being overnight - which is reasonable - but otherwise lost out on Croatia unnecessarily, really.
Here's how the picks have fallen by type of game. I've categorised the Scotland group games and Brazil v Morocco as prime time group games, which is arguably a bit generous.
Prime time group
For the prime time group games, I think ITV have the edge.
BBC
12/06/2026 - Friday - 20:00 - Canada v UEFA Path A
13/06/2026 - Saturday - 23:00 - Brazil v Morocco
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 02:00 - Haiti v Scotland
15/06/2026 - Monday - 20:00 - Belgium v Egypt
16/06/2026 - Tuesday - 20:00 - France v Senegal
19/06/2026 - Friday - 20:00 - USA v Australia
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 18:00 - Netherlands v UEFA Path B
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 17:00 - Spain v Saudi Arabia
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 21:00 - England v Ghana
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 23:00 - Scotland v Brazil/Morocco v Haiti
25/06/2026 - Thursday - 21:00 - Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire/Ecuador v Germany
ITV
11/06/2026 - Thursday - 20:00 - Mexico v South Africa
13/06/2026 - Saturday - 20:00 - Qatar v Switzerland
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 18:00 - Germany v Curaçao
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 21:00 - Netherlands v Japan
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 21:00 - England v Croatia
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 20:00 - Switzerland v UEFA Path A
19/06/2026 - Friday - 23:00 - Scotland v Morocco
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 21:00 - Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 20:00 - Belgium v Iran
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 20:00 - Switzerland v Canada/UEFA Path A v Qatar
26/06/2026 - Friday - 20:00 - Norway v France/Senegal v IC Path 2
27/06/2026 - Saturday - 22:00 - Panama v England/Croatia v Ghana
Tea time/23:00 group
For the tea time group games, I think BBC have the edge (Argentina v Austria possibly picked ahead of some prime time games), though there aren't that many of these.
BBC
16/06/2026 - Tuesday - 23:00 - IC Path 2 v Norway
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 18:00 - Portugal v IC Path 1
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 17:00 - UEFA Path D v South Africa
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 23:00 - Uruguay v Cape Verde
22/06/2026 - Monday - 18:00 - Argentina v Austria
22/06/2026 - Monday - 22:00 - France v IC Path 2
ITV
15/06/2026 - Monday - 17:00 - Spain v Cape Verde
15/06/2026 - Monday - 23:00 - Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 23:00 - Canada v Qatar
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 18:00 - Portugal v Uzbekistan
Other group
Not that there's much to celebrate here, but I think ITV have the edge on these games.
BBC
13/06/2026 - Saturday - 02:00 - USA v Paraguay
15/06/2026 - Monday - 00:00 - Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador
16/06/2026 - Tuesday - 02:00 - Iran v New Zealand
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 05:00 - Austria v Jordan
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 03:00 - Uzbekistan v Colombia
19/06/2026 - Friday - 02:00 - Mexico v South Korea
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 01:00 - Ecuador v Curaçao
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 05:00 - Tunisia v Japan
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 00:00 - Panama v Croatia
25/06/2026 - Thursday - 02:00 - South Africa v South Korea/UEFA Path D v Mexico
26/06/2026 - Friday - 00:00 - Japan v UEFA Path B/Tunisia v Netherlands
27/06/2026 - Saturday - 04:00 - Egypt v Iran/New Zealand v Belgium
28/06/2026 - Sunday - 00:30 - Colombia v Portugal/IC Path 1 v Uzbekistan
28/06/2026 - Sunday - 03:00 - Algeria v Austria/Jordan v Argentina
ITV
12/06/2026 - Friday - 03:00 - South Korea v UEFA Path D
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 05:00 - Australia v UEFA Path C
15/06/2026 - Monday - 03:00 - UEFA Path B v Tunisia
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 02:00 - Argentina v Algeria
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 00:00 - Ghana v Panama
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 02:00 - Brazil v Haiti
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 05:00 - UEFA Path C v Paraguay
22/06/2026 - Monday - 02:00 - New Zealand v Egypt
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 01:00 - Norway v Senegal
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 04:00 - Jordan v Algeria
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 03:00 - Colombia v IC Path 1
26/06/2026 - Friday - 03:00 - Paraguay v Australia/UEFA Path C v USA
27/06/2026 - Saturday - 01:00 - Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia/Uruguay v Spain
Last 32 (first 10 picks)
Obviously, this depends on what actually occurs, but I think it's fairly even in the Last 32.
BBC
29/06/2026 - Monday - 21:30 - 74. Winner Group E v 3rd Group A/B/C/D/F (e.g. Germany v possibly Scotland) - pick 3
30/06/2026 - Tuesday - 22:00 - 77. Winner Group I v 3rd Group C/D/F/G/H (e.g. France v other) - pick 10
01/07/2026 - Wednesday - 17:00 - 80. Winner Group L v 3rd Group E/H/I/J/K (e.g. England v other) - pick 1
01/07/2026 - Wednesday - 21:00 - 82. Winner Group G v 3rd Group A/E/H/I/J (e.g. Belgium v other) pick 5
03/07/2026 - Friday - 23:00 - 86. Winner Group J v Runner-up Group H (e.g. Argentina v Uruguay) - pick 7
ITV
28/06/2026 - Sunday - 20:00 - 73. Runner-up Group A v Runner-up Group B (e.g. Denmark v Wales/NI/Italy) - pick 2
29/06/2026 - Monday - 18:00 - 76. Winner Group C v Runner-up Group F (e.g. Brazil v Japan) - pick 6
30/06/2026 - Tuesday - 18:00 - 78. Runner-up Group E v Runner-up Group I (e.g. Ecuador v Norway) - pick 9
02/07/2026 - Thursday - 20:00 - 84. Winner Group H v Runner-up Group J (e.g. Spain v other) - pick 4
03/07/2026 - Friday - 19:00 - 88. Runner-up Group D v Runner-up Group G (e.g. Paraguay v Egypt) - pick 8
Last 16 (first 5 picks)
Again, I think it's going to be fairly even in the Last 16, but not if England are playing Spain.
BBC
04/07/2026 - Saturday - 18:00 - 90. Winner Match 73 v Winner Match 75 (e.g. Italy/NI/Wales v Netherlands) - pick 3
06/07/2026 - Monday - 01:00 - 92. Winner Match 79 v Winner Match 80 (e.g. Mexico v England) - pick 1
06/07/2026 - Monday - 20:00 - 93. Winner Match 83 v Winner Match 84 (e.g. Croatia v Spain) - pick 4
ITV
04/07/2026 - Saturday - 22:00 - 89. Winner Match 74 v Winner Match 77 (e.g. Germany v France) - pick 5
05/07/2026 - Sunday - 21:00 - 91. Winner Match 76 v Winner Match 78 (e.g. Brazil v Norway) - pick 2
And then ITV come out on top in the quarter final and BBC have first pick of the semis which is obviously huge if England or another home nation make it.
EDIT: I keep forgetting about the third place game. Not a great time slot (Saturday 22:00), but I suspect that's fairly high up. We'd normally expect that to be on ITV, but I wonder if it's on BBC this time.
I am guessing semi-final 2, with Scotland v Brazil 9th pick.
Yes that much seems crystal clear. 10 onwards is where it gets interesting though I think TLG86 likely had it broadly right in post #571, other than what Millie has hinted at since.
The thing that strikes me is just how bad the group stage timings are for British TV as a whole.
However the position then improves (whilst still not being great) in the Last 32 before becoming much, much better from the Last 16 onwards.
I think I would divide games between those starting before 11pm and those starting at 11pm or later. An 11pm start means a 1pm finish which is too late for any significant casual audience.
Group Stage
25 slots before 11pm
35 slots at 11pm or later
Last 32
9 games before 11pm
7 games at 11pm or later
Last 16
6 games before 11pm
2 games at 11pm or later
The thing that strikes me is just how bad the group stage timings are for British TV as a whole.
However the position then improves (whilst still being so so) in the Last 32 before being much, much better from the Last 16 onwards.
I think I would divide games between those starting before 11pm and those starting at 11pm or later. An 11pm start means a 1pm finish which is too late for any significant casual audience.
Group Stage
25 slots before 11pm
35 slots at 11pm or later
Last 32
9 games before 11pm
7 games at 11pm or later
Last 16
6 games before 11pm
2 games at 11pm or later
QFs
3 games before 11pm
1 game at 11pm or later
SFs, 3rd PO, F
All 4 games before 11pm
I would agree with your assessment. There's every chance I'm staying up for a 10pm kickoff even on a school night, but if it's 11pm I won't (unless it's a home nation). Friday/Saturday night I'd be more likely to stay up for all the overnight matches.
Of course for England it's the complete opposite of the overall position.
All 3 England group games are before 11pm.
But one of England's Last 32 or Last 16 will be after 11pm (assuming 1st or 2nd in group).
So the big picture really is that during the group stage there will be very little focus on teams other than the Home Nations.
Worked out nicely for UK TV then, since there are so few games in the group stage that are of any interest.
Almost every non-Home Nations group stage game of interest is at a good time for people on this side of the Atlantic. The most inconveniently timed game worth watching is probably Brazil-Morocco but even that is on a Saturday so could be a lot worse. Going to be a much better tournament for us Europeans than feared.
I think I would divide games between those starting before 11pm and those starting at 11pm or later. An 11pm start means a 1pm finish which is too late for any significant casual audience.
Never seen a game that lasted fourteen hours before…..
I think I would divide games between those starting before 11pm and those starting at 11pm or later. An 11pm start means a 1pm finish which is too late for any significant casual audience.
Never seen a game that lasted fourteen hours before…..
I think I would divide games between those starting before 11pm and those starting at 11pm or later. An 11pm start means a 1pm finish which is too late for any significant casual audience.
Never seen a game that lasted fourteen hours before…..
He will present the podcast with Alan Shearer and Micah Richards from a New York studio and it will include reports from inside the England camp and fan zones.
Lineker said the deal is a 'fantastic opportunity for the three of us to do what we love - talk football every day - but on a truly global stage'.
The deal represents the company's first attempt at live football coverage and is viewed as an attempt to challenge YouTube.
He will present the podcast with Alan Shearer and Micah Richards from a New York studio and it will include reports from inside the England camp and fan zones.
Lineker said the deal is a 'fantastic opportunity for the three of us to do what we love - talk football every day - but on a truly global stage'.
The deal represents the company's first attempt at live football coverage and is viewed as an attempt to challenge YouTube.
This sounds misleading "live football coverage" sounds like live broadcast of the matches.
This sports podcast revolution we’ve seen this decade is a bit of a head-scratcher to me. Firstly how there’s so much money in ads that so many of them basically doing the same thing can exist in such a saturated market, and now secondly how there’s so much money to be made by flogging them off TV channels and streaming outlets around big events.
Even with the two Aussie broadcasters of the Ashes at the moment, Fox have brought the rights to show Vaughan and Tufnell’s podcast, and 7 have Broad and Buttler’s one, and they’ve both only been going for a few months.
He will present the podcast with Alan Shearer and Micah Richards from a New York studio and it will include reports from inside the England camp and fan zones.
Lineker said the deal is a 'fantastic opportunity for the three of us to do what we love - talk football every day - but on a truly global stage'.
The deal represents the company's first attempt at live football coverage and is viewed as an attempt to challenge YouTube.
This sounds misleading "live football coverage" sounds like live broadcast of the matches.
Is there going to be additional content on Netflix? If it's the same podcast you can watch on YouTube, Spotify etc. I don't see what's in it for Netflix to pay this much for it.
He will present the podcast with Alan Shearer and Micah Richards from a New York studio and it will include reports from inside the England camp and fan zones.
Lineker said the deal is a 'fantastic opportunity for the three of us to do what we love - talk football every day - but on a truly global stage'.
The deal represents the company's first attempt at live football coverage and is viewed as an attempt to challenge YouTube.
This sounds misleading "live football coverage" sounds like live broadcast of the matches.
This sports podcast revolution we’ve seen this decade is a bit of a head-scratcher to me. Firstly how there’s so much money in ads that so many of them basically doing the same thing can exist in such a saturated market, and now secondly how there’s so much money to be made by flogging them off TV channels and streaming outlets around big events.
Even with the two Aussie broadcasters of the Ashes at the moment, Fox have brought the rights to show Vaughan and Tufnell’s podcast, and 7 have Broad and Buttler’s one, and they’ve both only been going for a few months.
Advertising revenue earned by audio podcasts (ie all audio podcasts, not just sports) is an absolutely miniscule share of the market.
Total advertising market = £42.6bn, of which:
TV advertising revenue = £5.27bn (12.4% of market)
Podcast advertising revenue = £90m (0.2% of market)
He will present the podcast with Alan Shearer and Micah Richards from a New York studio and it will include reports from inside the England camp and fan zones.
Lineker said the deal is a 'fantastic opportunity for the three of us to do what we love - talk football every day - but on a truly global stage'.
The deal represents the company's first attempt at live football coverage and is viewed as an attempt to challenge YouTube.
This sounds misleading "live football coverage" sounds like live broadcast of the matches.
Is there going to be additional content on Netflix? If it's the same podcast you can watch on YouTube, Spotify etc. I don't see what's in it for Netflix to pay this much for it.
When I originally posted this news on this thread a few weeks ago I think it was said that the full podcast would be available in audio format in all the usual places, but the video format would be exclusive to Netflix (with maybe clips on YouTube etc.).
Comments
Interesting. Taking Croatia at 3 and basically forcing ITV to take Ghana at 4 would surely have been the tactical play. Unless they aren’t as confident in England making the semis as taking that with the first pick would suggest.
How much higher…?
I mean they’d still have got the Last 32 game but otherwise yes, that’s fair. Would have been a major shock if ITV, with all their commercial considerations, had risked the BBC having both of England’s biggest group games by taking the L16 at 4, but with the secretive system I suppose you couldn’t have completely ruled it out.
1. SF 1
2. QF 1
3. England v Croatia
4. L16 1
5. England v Ghana
What are ITV taking with pick 6? Perhaps the BBC wouldn't like the idea of having the three group games and the semi final if England make it but are ITV really going to not have a group game?
Exactly. Even if they were to have turned down Ghana at 4 there’s surely no way ITV would also have turned down Panama at six, so if the BBC had taken Croatia then they’d still have been guaranteed at least one of L16 or L32. By taking both they did cover themselves against whichever of those ends up being overnight - which is reasonable - but otherwise lost out on Croatia unnecessarily, really.
Prime time group
For the prime time group games, I think ITV have the edge.
BBC
12/06/2026 - Friday - 20:00 - Canada v UEFA Path A
13/06/2026 - Saturday - 23:00 - Brazil v Morocco
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 02:00 - Haiti v Scotland
15/06/2026 - Monday - 20:00 - Belgium v Egypt
16/06/2026 - Tuesday - 20:00 - France v Senegal
19/06/2026 - Friday - 20:00 - USA v Australia
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 18:00 - Netherlands v UEFA Path B
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 17:00 - Spain v Saudi Arabia
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 21:00 - England v Ghana
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 23:00 - Scotland v Brazil/Morocco v Haiti
25/06/2026 - Thursday - 21:00 - Curaçao v Côte d'Ivoire/Ecuador v Germany
ITV
11/06/2026 - Thursday - 20:00 - Mexico v South Africa
13/06/2026 - Saturday - 20:00 - Qatar v Switzerland
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 18:00 - Germany v Curaçao
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 21:00 - Netherlands v Japan
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 21:00 - England v Croatia
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 20:00 - Switzerland v UEFA Path A
19/06/2026 - Friday - 23:00 - Scotland v Morocco
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 21:00 - Germany v Côte d'Ivoire
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 20:00 - Belgium v Iran
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 20:00 - Switzerland v Canada/UEFA Path A v Qatar
26/06/2026 - Friday - 20:00 - Norway v France/Senegal v IC Path 2
27/06/2026 - Saturday - 22:00 - Panama v England/Croatia v Ghana
Tea time/23:00 group
For the tea time group games, I think BBC have the edge (Argentina v Austria possibly picked ahead of some prime time games), though there aren't that many of these.
BBC
16/06/2026 - Tuesday - 23:00 - IC Path 2 v Norway
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 18:00 - Portugal v IC Path 1
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 17:00 - UEFA Path D v South Africa
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 23:00 - Uruguay v Cape Verde
22/06/2026 - Monday - 18:00 - Argentina v Austria
22/06/2026 - Monday - 22:00 - France v IC Path 2
ITV
15/06/2026 - Monday - 17:00 - Spain v Cape Verde
15/06/2026 - Monday - 23:00 - Saudi Arabia v Uruguay
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 23:00 - Canada v Qatar
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 18:00 - Portugal v Uzbekistan
Other group
Not that there's much to celebrate here, but I think ITV have the edge on these games.
BBC
13/06/2026 - Saturday - 02:00 - USA v Paraguay
15/06/2026 - Monday - 00:00 - Côte d'Ivoire v Ecuador
16/06/2026 - Tuesday - 02:00 - Iran v New Zealand
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 05:00 - Austria v Jordan
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 03:00 - Uzbekistan v Colombia
19/06/2026 - Friday - 02:00 - Mexico v South Korea
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 01:00 - Ecuador v Curaçao
21/06/2026 - Sunday - 05:00 - Tunisia v Japan
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 00:00 - Panama v Croatia
25/06/2026 - Thursday - 02:00 - South Africa v South Korea/UEFA Path D v Mexico
26/06/2026 - Friday - 00:00 - Japan v UEFA Path B/Tunisia v Netherlands
27/06/2026 - Saturday - 04:00 - Egypt v Iran/New Zealand v Belgium
28/06/2026 - Sunday - 00:30 - Colombia v Portugal/IC Path 1 v Uzbekistan
28/06/2026 - Sunday - 03:00 - Algeria v Austria/Jordan v Argentina
ITV
12/06/2026 - Friday - 03:00 - South Korea v UEFA Path D
14/06/2026 - Sunday - 05:00 - Australia v UEFA Path C
15/06/2026 - Monday - 03:00 - UEFA Path B v Tunisia
17/06/2026 - Wednesday - 02:00 - Argentina v Algeria
18/06/2026 - Thursday - 00:00 - Ghana v Panama
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 02:00 - Brazil v Haiti
20/06/2026 - Saturday - 05:00 - UEFA Path C v Paraguay
22/06/2026 - Monday - 02:00 - New Zealand v Egypt
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 01:00 - Norway v Senegal
23/06/2026 - Tuesday - 04:00 - Jordan v Algeria
24/06/2026 - Wednesday - 03:00 - Colombia v IC Path 1
26/06/2026 - Friday - 03:00 - Paraguay v Australia/UEFA Path C v USA
27/06/2026 - Saturday - 01:00 - Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia/Uruguay v Spain
Last 32 (first 10 picks)
Obviously, this depends on what actually occurs, but I think it's fairly even in the Last 32.
BBC
29/06/2026 - Monday - 21:30 - 74. Winner Group E v 3rd Group A/B/C/D/F (e.g. Germany v possibly Scotland) - pick 3
30/06/2026 - Tuesday - 22:00 - 77. Winner Group I v 3rd Group C/D/F/G/H (e.g. France v other) - pick 10
01/07/2026 - Wednesday - 17:00 - 80. Winner Group L v 3rd Group E/H/I/J/K (e.g. England v other) - pick 1
01/07/2026 - Wednesday - 21:00 - 82. Winner Group G v 3rd Group A/E/H/I/J (e.g. Belgium v other) pick 5
03/07/2026 - Friday - 23:00 - 86. Winner Group J v Runner-up Group H (e.g. Argentina v Uruguay) - pick 7
ITV
28/06/2026 - Sunday - 20:00 - 73. Runner-up Group A v Runner-up Group B (e.g. Denmark v Wales/NI/Italy) - pick 2
29/06/2026 - Monday - 18:00 - 76. Winner Group C v Runner-up Group F (e.g. Brazil v Japan) - pick 6
30/06/2026 - Tuesday - 18:00 - 78. Runner-up Group E v Runner-up Group I (e.g. Ecuador v Norway) - pick 9
02/07/2026 - Thursday - 20:00 - 84. Winner Group H v Runner-up Group J (e.g. Spain v other) - pick 4
03/07/2026 - Friday - 19:00 - 88. Runner-up Group D v Runner-up Group G (e.g. Paraguay v Egypt) - pick 8
Last 16 (first 5 picks)
Again, I think it's going to be fairly even in the Last 16, but not if England are playing Spain.
BBC
04/07/2026 - Saturday - 18:00 - 90. Winner Match 73 v Winner Match 75 (e.g. Italy/NI/Wales v Netherlands) - pick 3
06/07/2026 - Monday - 01:00 - 92. Winner Match 79 v Winner Match 80 (e.g. Mexico v England) - pick 1
06/07/2026 - Monday - 20:00 - 93. Winner Match 83 v Winner Match 84 (e.g. Croatia v Spain) - pick 4
ITV
04/07/2026 - Saturday - 22:00 - 89. Winner Match 74 v Winner Match 77 (e.g. Germany v France) - pick 5
05/07/2026 - Sunday - 21:00 - 91. Winner Match 76 v Winner Match 78 (e.g. Brazil v Norway) - pick 2
And then ITV come out on top in the quarter final and BBC have first pick of the semis which is obviously huge if England or another home nation make it.
EDIT: I keep forgetting about the third place game. Not a great time slot (Saturday 22:00), but I suspect that's fairly high up. We'd normally expect that to be on ITV, but I wonder if it's on BBC this time.
Lol, tea time and coming in from the pub time.
But what about the eighth?
Yes that much seems crystal clear. 10 onwards is where it gets interesting though I think TLG86 likely had it broadly right in post #571, other than what Millie has hinted at since.
However the position then improves (whilst still not being great) in the Last 32 before becoming much, much better from the Last 16 onwards.
I think I would divide games between those starting before 11pm and those starting at 11pm or later. An 11pm start means a 1pm finish which is too late for any significant casual audience.
Group Stage
25 slots before 11pm
35 slots at 11pm or later
Last 32
9 games before 11pm
7 games at 11pm or later
Last 16
6 games before 11pm
2 games at 11pm or later
QFs
3 games before 11pm
1 game at 11pm or later
SFs, 3rd PO, F
All 4 games before 11pm
I would agree with your assessment. There's every chance I'm staying up for a 10pm kickoff even on a school night, but if it's 11pm I won't (unless it's a home nation). Friday/Saturday night I'd be more likely to stay up for all the overnight matches.
All 3 England group games are before 11pm.
But one of England's Last 32 or Last 16 will be after 11pm (assuming 1st or 2nd in group).
So the big picture really is that during the group stage there will be very little focus on teams other than the Home Nations.
Worked out nicely for UK TV then, since there are so few games in the group stage that are of any interest.
Almost every non-Home Nations group stage game of interest is at a good time for people on this side of the Atlantic. The most inconveniently timed game worth watching is probably Brazil-Morocco but even that is on a Saturday so could be a lot worse. Going to be a much better tournament for us Europeans than feared.
Never seen a game that lasted fourteen hours before…..
VAR isn’t that bad !!
*1000 MINUTE KLAXON*
Lineker said the deal is a 'fantastic opportunity for the three of us to do what we love - talk football every day - but on a truly global stage'.
The deal represents the company's first attempt at live football coverage and is viewed as an attempt to challenge YouTube.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-15386579/Gary-Linekers-podcast-company-set-make-14million-Netflix-World-Cup-deal.html
This sounds misleading "live football coverage" sounds like live broadcast of the matches.
This sports podcast revolution we’ve seen this decade is a bit of a head-scratcher to me. Firstly how there’s so much money in ads that so many of them basically doing the same thing can exist in such a saturated market, and now secondly how there’s so much money to be made by flogging them off TV channels and streaming outlets around big events.
Even with the two Aussie broadcasters of the Ashes at the moment, Fox have brought the rights to show Vaughan and Tufnell’s podcast, and 7 have Broad and Buttler’s one, and they’ve both only been going for a few months.
Is there going to be additional content on Netflix? If it's the same podcast you can watch on YouTube, Spotify etc. I don't see what's in it for Netflix to pay this much for it.
Advertising revenue earned by audio podcasts (ie all audio podcasts, not just sports) is an absolutely miniscule share of the market.
Total advertising market = £42.6bn, of which:
TV advertising revenue = £5.27bn (12.4% of market)
Podcast advertising revenue = £90m (0.2% of market)
https://observer.co.uk/news/national/article/concern-skys-itv-bid-imperils-public-service-broadcasting
https://podnews.net/press-release/iab-uk-ad-spend-2024
When I originally posted this news on this thread a few weeks ago I think it was said that the full podcast would be available in audio format in all the usual places, but the video format would be exclusive to Netflix (with maybe clips on YouTube etc.).