Uncertainty over President Trump's new tariff policies almost knocked stocks into a bear market a year ago. While growth stocks suffered the most, value stocks also declined. Even bond prices were lower amid the confusion. Stocks have since recovered and the bull market that began in 2022 remains intact. But inflation is still an issue and now the Federal Reserve's treasured and valuable independence may be in question. Is a correction in the offing, given the high level of stock prices? Taking into account all the variables, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? As the market fluctuates between bull and bear, we note that investors exit equities at their own peril. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

While the major indices have struggled, the smaller indices have forged their own path, hitting all-time highs (ATH) almost every day. The S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index (SPXEW) pulled back to its rising 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) last Tuesday and recovered the entire loss (and then some) on Wednesday. The S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) and the S&P SmallCap 600 (SML) dropped to their 13-day EMAs on Tuesday and bounced nicely (but did see some profit taking on Friday). All three indices continue to march into unchartered territory, and all have been outperforming the S&P 500. Year to date, the iShares Micro-Cap ETF (IWC) is leading the charge, with a 9.3% gain, followed by the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM +7.6%) and the iShares S&P Small-Cap (SML +6.4%). The MDY is up 5.5% and the SPXEW has gained 3.7%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up only 1.4%, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the Nasdaq Composite, and the S&P 100 (OEX) have gained just 1%. The Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG) is down 1.1%. So far in the new year, the character of the stock market has changed. But it is too early to throw in the towel on mega-caps and push all your chips in on the smaller-cap equity indices. Fourth-quarter EPS reports continue to come in fast and furious. On Tuesday, UNH, UPS, BA, RTX, GM, NOC, TXN, and STX report; on Wednesday, ASML, SBUX, GEV, T, APH, GLW, GD, DHR, TSLA, MSFT, META, NOW, IBM, and LRCX; on Thursday, MA, CAT, LMT, MO, SAP, BX, HON, NDAQ, TMO, AAPL, V, WDC, KLAC, and SNDK; and on Friday, CVX, AXP, XOM, CL, VZ, and REGN. The next few weeks will be the heaviest (by market cap) of the earnings season. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Based in Chicago, CME Group operates exchanges giving investors, suppliers, and businesses the ability to trade futures and derivatives based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign currencies, energy, metals, and commodities. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange was founded in 1898 and in 2002 completed its IPO. Since then, CME Group has consolidated parts of the industry by merging with crosstown rival CBOT Holdings in 2007 before acquiring Nymex Holdings in 2008 and NEX in 2018. In addition, the company has a 27% stake in S&P Dow Jones Indices, making the Chicago Mercantile Exchange the exclusive venue to trade and clear S&P futures contracts. Through CME’s acquisition of NEX, it also expanded into cash foreign exchange, fixed-income trading, and collateral optimization.

Based in Chicago, CME Group operates exchanges giving investors, suppliers, and businesses the ability to trade futures and derivatives based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign currencies, energy, metals, and commodities. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange was founded in 1898 and in 2002 completed its IPO. Since then, CME Group has consolidated parts of the industry by merging with crosstown rival CBOT Holdings in 2007 before acquiring Nymex Holdings in 2008 and NEX in 2018. In addition, the company has a 27% stake in S&P Dow Jones Indices, making the Chicago Mercantile Exchange the exclusive venue to trade and clear S&P futures contracts. Through CME’s acquisition of NEX, it also expanded into cash foreign exchange, fixed-income trading, and collateral optimization.