Mark Franklin

European University Institute, Political Science, Retired Professor

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Until he retired in 2007, Mark Franklin was the Reitemeyer Professor of International Politics at Trinity College Connecticut (a position he held for nine years), having previously taught at the Universities of Houston, Texas (for nine years) and the University of Strathclyde, Scotland (for twenty years). In retirement he has held positions at the European University Institute (Florence, Italy), Nuffield College (Oxford, England) the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study (Waasenaar, the Netherlands), the University of Sydney (Australia) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Cambridge MA, USA). Dr Franklin received his PhD from Cornell University in 1970 and his B.A. from Oxford University (Balliol College) in 1964. In 2001-2 Professor Franklin was a Guggenheim Fellow at Harvard University and in 1984-5 he was a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Iowa. He has published more than twenty books (five of them single-authored), including Elections and Voters (Palgrave 2009) The Economy and the Vote (Cambridge 2007)

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347 Papers
1 Books

Papers by Mark Franklin

Appendix to Chapter 22 of the Oxford Handbook of Political Participation

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The 2019 European Elections: something old, something new, something borrowed, and something green

Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 2020

In the aftermath of a European Parliament (EP) election, there are normally two prominent aspects... more In the aftermath of a European Parliament (EP) election, there are normally two prominent aspects that receive attention by scholars and experts: the turnout rate and whether the Second Order Election (SOE) model proposed by Reif and Schmitt (1980) still applies. That model is based on the idea that, because EP elections do not themselves provide enough stimulus as to replace the concerns normally present at national elections, the outcomes of EP elections in any participating country manifest themselves as a sort of distorted mirror of national (Parliamentary) elections in that country. The mirror is distorted because those national concerns are modified, not so much by the concerns arising from the European context in which EP elections are held as simply by the fact that EP elections are not national elections. In particular, at EP elections, national executive power is not at stake. The same party or parties will rule in each country after an EP election as ruled there before.

format_quoteThe SOE model applied to party choice, but structural changes post-2014 complicate turnout explanations.format_quote

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The Use of Eurobarometer Data in a Study of Electoral Change

Eurobarometer, 1991

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Party Choice as a Two-Stage Process

The Economy and the Vote

Explaining the outcome: second-order factors still matter, but with an exceptional turnout increase

Strategic Incentives, Issue Proximity and Party Support in Europe

Routledge eBooks, May 21, 2020

The Issue Yield model [De Sio 2010] predicts that parties will choose specific issues to emphasiz... more The Issue Yield model [De Sio 2010] predicts that parties will choose specific issues to emphasize, based on the joint assessment of electoral risks (how divisive is an issue within the party support base) and electoral opportunities (how widely supported is the same issue outside the party). According to this model, issues with high yield are those that combine a high affinity with the existing party base, together with a high potential to reach new voters. In previous work, the model showed a remarkable ability to explain aggregate issue importance as reported by party supporters [De Sio 2010], as well as issue emphasis in party manifestos (De Sio and Weber 2011). This paper tests the implications at the individual level by comparing a conventional model where issue salience is determined from manifesto data with a revised model where issue salience is determined by issue yield. The empirical findings show that issue yield is a more effective criterion than manifesto emphasis for identifying the issues most closely associated with party support in the minds of voters.

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The mixed fortunes of the British green party, 1989-1992

Ashgate eBooks, 1993

This chapter looks at the green party in british politics during the period 1989-199

Research design: from issues to goals

Routledge eBooks, Mar 30, 2021

Disentangling the Endogeneity

Much previous research shows that variation in vote choice closely follows variation in economic ... more Much previous research shows that variation in vote choice closely follows variation in economic perceptions over time. A number of scholars argue that the pattern is rooted in cross-sectional effects and have found apparent evidence of such effects. However, most of these studies do not take into account the possibility that economic perceptions are themselves structured by vote choice, which poses potentially serious implications. We begin to address this endogeneity, focusing specifically on LewisBeck's (1988) analysis of economic voting. The results suggest that the cross-sectional effects of the economy on vote choice have been substantially overstated.

Why issue-based strategies won’t help Trump win re-election

illuminate the challenge facing Donald Trump in his bid for re-election. There are currently no d... more illuminate the challenge facing Donald Trump in his bid for re-election. There are currently no divisive issues on which Trump stands to win more support from independents and Democrats than he stands to lose from his own support-base, while on issues for which goals are widely shared, Trump lacks credibility compared to Joe Biden.

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The European Parliament Elections of 2019

Last, but definitely not least, we also wish to thank Jaanika Juntson and Aldo Paparo, for their ... more Last, but definitely not least, we also wish to thank Jaanika Juntson and Aldo Paparo, for their invaluable help with organizational and operational aspects of the project.

$SULSE 1 LIE NEC SOLU Pildost \U.O). The monotonic increase of TV over time is not merely a descriptive fact but, ra- ther, a robust finding. Table 2 shows the results of a multivariate regression analy- sis of TV (Models 1 and 2) and its internal components (Models 3,AltV, and 4, RegV) on time (measured in years) and a dichotomous variable indicating CEE countries. Overall, evidence shows the effect of time on the increase in TV is significant with p<o.o1”. Furthermore, our analysis shows this increase over time is due only to the changing patterns in WE, given that CEE countries display very high but steady va- lues of TV across the three electoral periods (2004-2009, 2009-2014, 2014-2019). This is shown by Model 2, where an interaction between time and the dichotomous variable for CEE is added to the linear model. Figure 2 below reports the Average Mar-$

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Clarity of voter choices: neglected foundation for ideological congruence

Quaderni dell Osservatorio elettorale QOE - IJES, 2021

Ideological congruence between voters and governments is desirable, the wisdom goes, because it i... more Ideological congruence between voters and governments is desirable, the wisdom goes, because it implies enactment of policies close to those preferred by voters. Party polarization plays a paradoxical role here: more polarization reduces voter-government congruence if parties making up a government move away from the center-ground where most individual voters are located; yet increasing polarization permits those governments’ policies to become more distinct in the eyes of voters. This paper investigates how political system clarity helps to resolve this paradox. We examine the interplay of several sources of clarity and, in particular, of the joint role of party and voter polarization. We argue and find that, if polarization of survey respondents increases in step with party polarization, this provides clarity that can override party polarization’s negative effect on voter-government congruence. But other types of clarity also play important roles in accounting for the range of val...

format_quoteCombining four sources of clarity allows us to explain nearly all empirical variance in ideological congruence among European political systems.format_quote

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Green prospects: the future of green parties in Britain, France and Germany

Green Politics Two, 1992

Detailed Results Not Reported in the Main Text

The Economy and the Vote, 2007

Elections

Oxford University Press eBooks, May 1, 2014

Conclusions: The 2014 EP Elections as a Lens on Euroscepticism

Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks, Dec 10, 2016

Drawing on the findings of the previous chapters, we assess whether it continues to be helpful fo... more Drawing on the findings of the previous chapters, we assess whether it continues to be helpful for European Parliament (EP) elections to be termed “second order” and/or “second rate”. The 2014 EP elections were indeed still second rate and also predominantly second order. Being “about Europe”, which undoubtedly was also the case, does not make them less deserving of either title, and the character of these elections that made them so extraordinary would have been very different had they not remained predominantly second order. The final chapter assesses if the character displayed by the 2014 EP elections is likely to be reflected in later national elections and the circumstances in which those results could lead to substantial policy and/or membership changes in the European Union (EU).

The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries

Editors’ introduction – in defense of political science

The 2014 European Parliament Elections: Still Second Order?

The Eurosceptic 2014 European Parliament Elections, 2016

Here we set the scene for the book, questioning the reasons for the phenomenal success of eurosce... more Here we set the scene for the book, questioning the reasons for the phenomenal success of eurosceptic parties at the European Parliament (EP) elections of 2014 and considering the likely consequences. Above all, did these elections represent a new phenomenon, no longer “second order” in nature? We define this term and introduce a new term—“second rate”—to describe an aspect of EP elections that distinguishes them from other second-order elections with more immediately evident policy consequences. The chapter goes on to discuss whether the second-order character of these elections might actually help to account for their more remarkable features. It also defines and introduces additional terms that are used in the book and provides an overview of the chapters that follow.

Studying Elections, Parties and Voters

Elections and Voters, 2009

Mark Franklin

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