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2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

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For related races, see 2026 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2026 Iowa Senate election.

2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2020
November 3, 2026
2032 →
 
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Joni Ernst
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Primary elections will be held on June 2, 2026. Two-term Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote, declined to seek re-election to a third term.[1]

Background

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Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation.[2]

Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat.[3][4]

In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die" during a town hall in north-central Iowa.[5] She later doubled down on her controversial comment, which many observers criticized as dismissive, in a social media video filmed in a cemetery.[6] Ernst announced in September 2025 that she would not seek reelection.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Filed paperwork

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Potential

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Jim Carlin
State legislators
Ashley Hinson
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations

Fundraising

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Italics indicate a declined candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Carlin (R) $170,893 $169,165 $1,728
Ashley Hinson (R) $4,892,227 $1,650,040 $5,170,263
Source: Federal Election Commission[30]

Polling

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Hypothetical polling

Joni Ernst vs. "Someone Else"

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst 		Someone
Else 		Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[31] December 6–7, 2024 600 (LV) – 48% 27% 26%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Josh Turek
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
  • Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA and former candidate in this race[47]
Organizations
Zach Wahls
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Notable individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Jackie Norris (withdrawn)
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Nathan Sage (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials

Fundraising

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Italics indicate withdrawn candidate

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Nathan Sage (D) $1,349,828 $1,263,488 $86,339
Josh Turek (D) $1,686,398 $1,287,925 $398,474
Zach Wahls (D) $2,045,589 $1,312,108 $733,481
Source: Federal Election Commission[30]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Turek 		Zach
Wahls 		Other Undecided
GQR (D)[60][A] February 18–22, 2026 605 (LV) – 24% 42% – 34%
NRSC (R)[61] February 16–18, 2026 1,923 (LV) ± 2.5% 23% 30% 5%[c] 42%

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2025
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Thomas Laehn (L) $38,875 $33,370 $5,505
Source: Federal Election Commission[30]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[63] Likely R January 12, 2026
The Cook Political Report[64] Likely R January 12, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely R January 29, 2026
Race To The WH[66] Tilt R February 5, 2026

Polling

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Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ashley
Hinson (R) 		Josh
Turek (D) 		Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[67][68] January 8–11, 2026 1,108 (LV) – 44% 41% 1%[d] 14%

Ashley Hinson vs. Zach Wahls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ashley
Hinson (R) 		Zach
Wahls (D) 		Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[67][68] January 8–11, 2026 1,108 (LV) – 44% 41% 2%[e] 13%
Hypothetical polling

Ashley Hinson vs. Nathan Sage

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ashley
Hinson (R) 		Nathan
Sage (D) 		Other Undecided
Change Research (D)[67][68] January 8–11, 2026 1,108 (LV) – 44% 41% 1%[d] 14%

Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Jackie
Norris (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[69][A] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 42% 13%

Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Nathan
Sage (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[69][A] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 41% 14%

Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Josh
Turek (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[69][A] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 41% 14%

Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Zach
Wahls (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[69][A] August 18–19, 2025 572 (V) ± 4.1% 43% 42% 15%

Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joni
Ernst (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[70][71][B] June 2–3, 2025 568 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 43% 12%

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  4. ^ a b "Would not vote" with 1%
  5. ^ "Would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by Wahls's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates

References

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  1. ^ a b Jacobs, Jennifer (September 2, 2025). "Joni Ernst announces retirement from Senate in 2026, pledges ongoing community involvement". KGAN. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  2. ^ Ta, Linh (November 6, 2024). "Iowa remains solidly Republican". Axios. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  3. ^ Barrett, Ted (November 5, 2014). "Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race". CNN. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  4. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2020). "'Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  5. ^ "MSN". www.msn.com. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
  6. ^ https://www.npr.org/2025/05/31/nx-s1-5418932/we-all-are-going-to-die-ernst-joni-town-hall-iowa-senator
  7. ^ Hayworth, Bret (April 16, 2025). "Iowa politics: Republican Jim Carlin announces U.S. Senate campaign". KCCI. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
  8. ^ Richards, Zoë (September 2, 2025). "GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid for open Iowa seat". NBC News. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  9. ^ Belin, Laura (December 9, 2024). "Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
  10. ^ "BERMAN, JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 16, 2025.
  11. ^ Bowman, Bridget; Kamisar, Ben; Allen, Jonathan; Welker, Kristen (August 29, 2025). "Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won't seek re-election in Iowa in 2026". NBC News. Retrieved August 29, 2025.
  12. ^ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (September 8, 2025). "Morning Digest: Kansas Republicans want to gerrymander. They have a few problems". The Downballot. Retrieved September 8, 2025.
  13. ^ Geer, Caleb (January 10, 2026). "Sen. Joni Ernst, additional Iowa Republicans endorse Rep. Ashley Hinson for US Senate". weareiowa.com. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  14. ^ Pfannenstiel, Sabine Martin and Brianne (January 27, 2025). "Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 1, 2025. Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate.
  15. ^ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (September 3, 2025). "Morning Digest: How Democrats can fight back against the Missouri GOP's new gerrymander". The Downballot. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
  16. ^ a b Pfannenstiel, Brianne (September 2, 2025). "Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson announces 2026 US Senate campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  17. ^ a b c d "Former AG Tom Miller endorses Josh Turek in Iowa's Democratic Senate primary". The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. September 9, 2025. Retrieved September 9, 2025.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  18. ^ Belin, Laura (September 7, 2025). "Ashley Hinson's Senate rollout: Short-term success, long-term risks". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved September 7, 2025.
  19. ^ a b "U.S. Senate election endorsements". Ballotpedia. Retrieved October 24, 2025.
  20. ^ Fields, Ashleigh (September 5, 2025). "Trump endorses Ashley Hinson in Iowa Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved September 6, 2025.
  21. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen. "Incumbent Joni Ernst endorses Ashley Hinson to succeed her in US Senate". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  22. ^ a b c d e f g Steinhauser, Paul (September 2, 2025). "Republican rising star Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid in race to succeed Iowa's Ernst". Fox News. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
  23. ^ a b c d e f Markus, Nicole (September 5, 2025). "Republicans move quickly to support Ashley Hinson's Senate bid". Politico. Retrieved September 5, 2025.
  24. ^ "U.S. Senate election endorsements". Ballotpedia. Retrieved October 31, 2025.
  25. ^ "Gov. Kim Reynolds endorses Rep. Ashley Hinson for US Senate". WQAD. January 29, 2026. Retrieved January 30, 2026.
  26. ^ "Sen. Joni Ernst, additional Iowa Republicans endorse Rep. Ashley Hinson for US Senate". WeAreIowa. January 10, 2026. Retrieved January 12, 2026.
  27. ^ "2026 GOP Clean Energy Leaders". ClearPath Action Fund. Retrieved January 28, 2026.
  28. ^ "Maggie's List Endorses Hinson in Iowa, Noveletsky in New Hampshire". maggieslist.org. October 3, 2025. Retrieved October 24, 2025.
  29. ^ "22 Republicans endorsed by LGBT organization: Full list of names". Newsweek. February 3, 2026. Retrieved February 4, 2026.
  30. ^ a b c "2026 Election United States Senate - Iowa". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  31. ^ "NEW POLL: Less Than Half of Iowa Republicans Support Joni Ernst for US Senate in 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 9, 2024. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  32. ^ "Bob Krause announces candidacy for U.S. Senate, endorses Bohannan in House race". KGAN. September 2, 2025. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  33. ^ Henderson, O. Kay (October 13, 2025). "Coralville Democrat says he'll run for US Senate in 2026". Radio Iowa. Retrieved October 15, 2025.
  34. ^ Opsahl, Robin (August 12, 2025). "Iowa Rep. Josh Turek, two-time Paralympian, launches campaign for U.S. Senate". KCCI. Retrieved August 15, 2025.
  35. ^ Koons, Cami (June 11, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls announces bid for U.S. Senate". Iowa Capital Dispatch. Retrieved June 11, 2025.
  36. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (October 16, 2025). "DMPS Board Chair Jackie Norris ends US Senate campaign after superintendent arrest". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved October 16, 2025.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  37. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (February 15, 2026). "Democrat Nathan Sage ends his campaign for Iowa's US Senate seat". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 15, 2026.
  38. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (February 16, 2026). "Nathan Sage endorses Josh Turek in Iowa's Democratic US Senate race". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 16, 2026.
  39. ^ a b Gruber-Miller, Stephen (August 18, 2025). "Democrat J.D. Scholten drops out of Iowa's 2026 US Senate race and endorses Josh Turek". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 18, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: deprecated archival service (link)
  40. ^ Tallal, Skylar (May 12, 2025). "Iowa Auditor Rob Sand announces 2026 gubernatorial run". KGAN. Retrieved May 12, 2025.
  41. ^ a b c d e "Outside influence, division grows in Iowa U.S. Senate primary". The Gazette. Retrieved February 21, 2026.
  42. ^ Lehrich, Jesse (December 5, 2025). "the new politics of endorsements". Nobody's Listening.
  43. ^ a b c Opsahl, Robin (November 18, 2025). "Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Zach Wahls, Josh Turek tout new endorsements • Iowa Capital Dispatch". Iowa Capital Dispatch. Retrieved November 28, 2025.
  44. ^ a b "Charlie Kirk's group endorses Joe Mitchell in Iowa Republican Congressional primary". The Gazette. Retrieved December 8, 2025.
  45. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y Price, Dave (September 3, 2025). "Challengers tout endorsements amid major Iowa race shakeup". KWQC. Retrieved September 10, 2025.
  46. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (October 28, 2025). "Democratic US Senate hopeful Josh Turek warns of 'farmageddon' driven by 'chaotic' tariffs". Des Moines Register. Retrieved November 4, 2025. Turek was joined on the call with Dave Muhlbauer, a Crawford County supervisor and former Democratic U.S. Senate candidate who has endorsed his campaign.
  47. ^ Gruber-Miller, Stephen (February 16, 2026). "Nathan Sage endorses Josh Turek in Iowa's Democratic US Senate race". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 16, 2026.
  48. ^ a b Opsahl, Robin (December 3, 2025). "Iowa Rep. Josh Turek, Sen. Zach Wahls receive union endorsements in U.S. Senate Democratic primary". KCRG. Retrieved December 4, 2025.
  49. ^ "Campaign Almanac: Labor union backs Josh Turek for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Retrieved January 7, 2026.
  50. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Campaign Almanac: Iowa Democrat Wahls announces slate of endorsements for Senate campaign". The Gazette. July 23, 2025. Retrieved August 29, 2025.
  51. ^ a b "Jason Kander, labor group endorse Zach Wahls for U.S. Senate". Globe Gazette. November 13, 2025. Retrieved November 16, 2025.
  52. ^ "Former governor candidate Hubbell endorses Wahls in Iowa's Democratic Senate primary". Sioux City Journal. February 5, 2026. Retrieved February 5, 2026.
  53. ^ "Central Iowa Building and Construction Trades Council endorses Zach Wahls in U.S. Senate race". Globe Gazette. February 23, 2026. Retrieved February 25, 2026.
  54. ^ a b "Campaign Almanac: Iowa construction union backs Summit pipeline, Senate GOP eminent domain bill". The Gazette. January 30, 2026. Retrieved January 31, 2026.
  55. ^ Woolard, Megan (August 18, 2025). "Wahls makes labor core tenet of U.S. Senate campaign". The Gazette. Retrieved September 10, 2025.
  56. ^ "Campaign Almanac: U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan endorses Joe Mitchell in Eastern Iowa Republican primary". The Gazette Archived. Retrieved November 25, 2025.
  57. ^ a b c d e Gazette-Lee Des Moines Bureau (September 15, 2025). "Campaign Almanac: Elections forecaster shifts Iowa U.S. House race toward Democrats as race takes shape". The Gazette. Retrieved September 18, 2025.
  58. ^ "Zach Wahls". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.
  59. ^ Reich, Robert (September 11, 2025). "Democrats should forget about appealing to some mythical center - The Boston Globe". BostonGlobe.com. Retrieved September 29, 2025. If it's to have a future, the Democratic Party must not only condemn Trumpism but explain why so many Americans are struggling and offer a credible path for most people to share in the nation's prosperity. That means forgetting about moving to the so-called center and instead embracing the passion, energy, youth, and big ideas of young Democrats like Zohran Mamdani in New York City and Senate candidates such as Graham Platner in Maine, Dan Osborn in Nebraska, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Nathan Sage in Iowa.
  60. ^ "Zach Wahls leads by 18 points in the primary election for U.S. Senate". GQR. February 24, 2026. Retrieved February 25, 2026 – via Google Drive.
  61. ^ "NEW NRSC POLL: Wahls leading Turek in Iowa Democrat Primary". National Republican Senatorial Committee. February 19, 2026. Retrieved February 20, 2026.
  62. ^ Foix, Chase (April 21, 2025). "US Senate hopeful speaks to Rotary Club of Sioux City". KCAU-TV. Retrieved August 7, 2025.
  63. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  64. ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  65. ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  66. ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
  67. ^ a b c Jacobs, Ben [@Bencjacobs] (February 9, 2026). "Change Research poll in Iowa has three point lead for Hinson (who it has with underwater favs) against all three Dem challengers with it shrinking on an informed ballot" (Tweet). Retrieved February 22, 2026 – via Twitter.
  68. ^ a b c "Latest Polls". FiftyPlusOne. Retrieved February 22, 2026.
  69. ^ a b c d Plascencia, Cesar (August 22, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls Performs Best Against Ernst in Potential Senate Matchups". Public Policy Polling. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  70. ^ "Joni Ernst Unpopular, May Face Tough Reelection". Public Policy Polling. June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
  71. ^ "Iowa Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
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Official campaign websites
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