2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.
Election ratings
[edit]Latest published ratings for competitive seats
[edit]Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
- Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.
| District | CPVI [1] |
Incumbent | Last result[2] | Cook Jan. 15, 2026[3] |
IE Dec. 5, 2025[4] |
Sabato Feb. 5, 2026[5] |
WH Feb. 17, 2026[6] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska at-large | R+6 | Nick Begich III | 51.3% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Arizona 1 | R+1 | David Schweikert (retiring) |
51.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Arizona 2 | R+7 | Eli Crane | 54.5% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Arizona 5 | R+10 | Andy Biggs (retiring) |
60.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Arizona 6 | EVEN | Juan Ciscomani | 50.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) |
| California 1 | D+7[a] | Vacant[b] | 65.3% R | Solid D (flip) | Solid D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Likely D (flip) |
| California 3 | D+6[a] | Ami Bera | 57.6% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| California 6 | D+5[a] | New seat | – | Solid D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Likely D (flip) |
| California 13 | D+2[a] | Adam Gray | 50.0% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D |
| California 21 | D+5[a] | Jim Costa | 52.6% D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| California 22 | D+1[a] | David Valadao | 53.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup |
| California 25 | D+4[a] | Raul Ruiz | 56.3% D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D |
| California 40 | R+6[a] | Young Kim and Ken Calvert |
55.3% R; 51.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| California 45 | D+3[a] | Derek Tran | 50.1% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D |
| California 47 | D+6[a] | Dave Min | 51.4% D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D |
| California 48 | D+2[a] | Darrell Issa | 59.3% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) |
| Colorado 3 | R+5 | Jeff Hurd | 50.8% R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Colorado 4 | R+9 | Lauren Boebert | 53.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R |
| Colorado 5 | R+5 | Jeff Crank | 54.7% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tilt R |
| Colorado 8 | EVEN | Gabe Evans | 49.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) |
| Connecticut 5 | D+3 | Jahana Hayes | 53.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Florida 4 | R+5 | Aaron Bean | 57.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Florida 7 | R+5 | Cory Mills | 56.5% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Florida 9 | D+4 | Darren Soto | 55.1% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Florida 13 | R+5 | Anna Paulina Luna | 54.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Florida 15 | R+5 | Laurel Lee | 56.2% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R |
| Florida 16 | R+7 | Vern Buchanan (retiring) |
59.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Florida 23 | D+2 | Jared Moskowitz | 52.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Florida 27 | R+6 | María Elvira Salazar | 60.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Georgia 1 | R+8 | Buddy Carter (retiring) |
62.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R |
| Illinois 8 | D+5 | Raja Krishnamoorthi (retiring) |
57.1% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D |
| Illinois 17 | D+3 | Eric Sorensen | 54.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Indiana 1 | D+1 | Frank J. Mrvan | 53.4% D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Iowa 1 | R+4 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 50.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Iowa 2 | R+4 | Ashley Hinson (retiring) |
57.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tilt R |
| Iowa 3 | R+2 | Zach Nunn | 51.9% R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Kansas 3 | D+2 | Sharice Davids | 53.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Kentucky 6 | R+7 | Andy Barr (retiring) |
63.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Maine 2 | R+4 | Jared Golden (retiring) |
50.3% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Maryland 6 | D+3 | April McClain Delaney | 53.1% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Michigan 4 | R+3 | Bill Huizenga | 55.1% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Michigan 7 | EVEN | Tom Barrett | 50.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Michigan 8 | R+1 | Kristen McDonald Rivet | 51.2% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Michigan 10 | R+3 | John James (retiring) |
51.1% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Minnesota 1 | R+6 | Brad Finstad | 58.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R |
| Minnesota 2 | D+3 | Angie Craig (retiring) |
55.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D |
| Minnesota 8 | R+7 | Pete Stauber | 58.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Missouri 2 | TBD[a] | Ann Wagner | 54.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Missouri 5 | TBD[a] | Emanuel Cleaver | 60.2% D | Solid D [c] | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) |
| Montana 1 | R+5 | Ryan Zinke | 52.3% R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Nebraska 1 | R+6 | Mike Flood | 60.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Nebraska 2 | D+3 | Don Bacon (retiring) |
50.9% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) |
| Nevada 1 | D+2 | Dina Titus | 52.0% D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D |
| Nevada 2 | R+7 | Mark Amodei (retiring) |
55.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Nevada 3 | D+1 | Susie Lee | 51.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| Nevada 4 | D+2 | Steven Horsford | 52.7% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New Hampshire 1 | D+2 | Chris Pappas (retiring) |
54.0% D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+2 | Maggie Goodlander | 53.0% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New Jersey 2 | R+5 | Jeff Van Drew | 58.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| New Jersey 5 | D+2 | Josh Gottheimer | 54.6% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| New Jersey 7 | EVEN | Thomas Kean Jr. | 51.8% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup |
| New Jersey 9 | D+2 | Nellie Pou | 50.8% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| New Mexico 2 | EVEN | Gabe Vasquez | 52.1% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D |
| New York 1 | TBD | Nick LaLota | 55.2% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R |
| New York 2 | TBD | Andrew Garbarino | 59.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| New York 3 | TBD | Tom Suozzi | 51.8% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| New York 4 | TBD | Laura Gillen | 51.1% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Likely D |
| New York 17 | TBD | Mike Lawler | 52.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup |
| New York 18 | TBD | Pat Ryan | 57.2% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| New York 19 | TBD | Josh Riley | 51.1% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D |
| New York 21 | TBD | Elise Stefanik (retiring) |
62.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| New York 22 | TBD | John Mannion | 54.6% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| North Carolina 1 | R+5[a] | Don Davis | 49.5% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup |
| North Carolina 3 | R+6[a] | Greg Murphy | 77.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| North Carolina 9 | R+8[a] | Richard Hudson | 56.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R |
| North Carolina 11 | R+5[a] | Chuck Edwards | 56.8% R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Tilt R |
| North Carolina 13 | R+8[a] | Brad Knott | 58.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| North Carolina 14 | R+8[a] | Tim Moore | 58.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Ohio 1 | R+1[a] | Greg Landsman | 54.6% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D |
| Ohio 7 | R+5[a] | Max Miller | 51.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Ohio 8 | R+12[a] | Warren Davidson | 62.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Ohio 9 | R+5[a] | Marcy Kaptur | 48.3% D | Tossup | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup |
| Ohio 10 | R+4[a] | Mike Turner | 57.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Ohio 13 | D+2[a] | Emilia Sykes | 51.1% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D |
| Ohio 15 | R+5[a] | Mike Carey | 56.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R |
| Oklahoma 5 | R+9 | Stephanie Bice | 60.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Oregon 4 | D+6 | Val Hoyle | 51.7% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Oregon 5 | D+4 | Janelle Bynum | 47.7% D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Oregon 6 | D+6 | Andrea Salinas | 53.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D |
| Pennsylvania 1 | D+1 | Brian Fitzpatrick | 56.4% R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 7 | R+1 | Ryan Mackenzie | 50.5% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 8 | R+4 | Rob Bresnahan | 50.8% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+3 | Scott Perry | 50.6% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 17 | D+3 | Chris Deluzio | 53.9% D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D |
| South Carolina 1 | R+6 | Nancy Mace (retiring) |
58.3% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R |
| South Carolina 2 | R+7 | Joe Wilson | 59.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| South Carolina 5 | R+11 | Ralph Norman (retiring) |
63.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Tennessee 5 | R+8 | Andy Ogles | 56.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Texas 8 | R+16[a] | Morgan Luttrell (retiring) |
68.2% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Texas 9 | R+9[a] | New seat | – | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Lean R (flip) |
| Texas 10 | R+10[a] | Michael McCaul (retiring) |
63.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Texas 15 | R+7[a] | Monica De La Cruz | 57.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Texas 22 | R+11[a] | Troy Nehls (retiring) |
62.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Texas 28 | R+3[a] | Henry Cuellar | 52.8% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tilt D |
| Texas 32 | R+8[a] | New seat | – | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) |
| Texas 34 | R+3[a] | Vicente Gonzalez | 51.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Texas 35 | R+4[a] | New seat | – | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) |
| Texas 38 | R+10[a] | Wesley Hunt (retiring) |
62.9% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Virginia 1 | R+3 | Rob Wittman | 56.4% R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R |
| Virginia 2 | EVEN | Jen Kiggans | 50.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) |
| Virginia 5 | R+6 | John McGuire | 57.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Tilt R |
| Virginia 7 | D+2 | Eugene Vindman | 51.3% D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Washington 3 | R+2 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 51.7% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tilt D |
| Washington 4 | R+10 | Dan Newhouse (retiring) |
52.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Washington 5 | R+5 | Michael Baumgartner | 60.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Wisconsin 1 | R+2 | Bryan Steil | 54.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R |
| Wisconsin 3 | R+3 | Derrick Van Orden | 51.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Wisconsin 7 | R+11 | Tom Tiffany (retiring) |
63.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Overall | D – 211 R – 206 19 tossups |
D – 212 R – 213 11 tossups |
D – 211 R – 208 17 tossups |
D – 216 R – 203 16 tossups | |||
Party listings
[edit]The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.
Republican-held seats
[edit]On April 8, 2025, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[7] On December 10, 2025, the list was revised adding four districts (CA-48, FL-15, NC-3, and NC-11) and removing two (CA-40 and CA-41).[8] The list was further revised on February 10, 2026, where five more districts (CO-5, MN-1, MT-1, SC-1, and VA-5) were added.[9]
- Alaska 1: Nick Begich III
- Arizona 1: Open seat
- Arizona 2: Eli Crane
- Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
- California 22: David Valadao
- California 48: Darrell Issa
- Colorado 5: Jeff Crank
- Colorado 8: Gabe Evans
- Florida 7: Cory Mills
- Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
- Florida 15: Laurel Lee
- Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
- Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
- Iowa 2: Open seat
- Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
- Kentucky 6: Open seat
- Michigan 4: Bill Huizenga
- Michigan 7: Tom Barrett
- Michigan 10: Open seat
- Minnesota 1: Brad Finstad
- Missouri 2: Ann Wagner
- Montana 1: Ryan Zinke
- Nebraska 2: Open seat
- New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
- New York 17: Mike Lawler
- North Carolina 3: Greg Murphy
- North Carolina 11: Chuck Edwards
- Ohio 7: Max Miller
- Ohio 10: Mike Turner
- Ohio 15: Mike Carey
- Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
- Pennsylvania 7: Ryan Mackenzie
- Pennsylvania 8: Rob Bresnahan
- Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
- South Carolina 1: Open seat
- Tennessee 5: Andy Ogles
- Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
- Virginia 1: Rob Wittman
- Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
- Virginia 5: John McGuire
- Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
- Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden
Democratic-held seats
[edit]On March 17, 2025, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[10] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:
- California 9: Josh Harder
- California 13: Adam Gray
- California 27: George Whitesides
- California 45: Derek Tran
- California 47: Dave Min
- Florida 9: Darren Soto
- Florida 23: Jared Moskowitz
- Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
- Maine 2: Open seat
- Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet
- North Carolina 1: Don Davis
- New Hampshire 1: Open seat
- New Jersey 9: Nellie Pou
- New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
- Nevada 1: Dina Titus
- Nevada 3: Susie Lee
- Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
- New York 3: Tom Suozzi
- New York 4: Laura Gillen
- New York 19: Josh Riley
- Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
- Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
- Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
- Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
- Virginia 7: Eugene Vindman
- Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj State enacted a new congressional map after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.
- ^ Doug LaMalfa died on January 6, 2026. A special election using the current, strongly Republican boundaries will be held on August 4, 2026.
- ^ Prediction was made before recent redistricting.
References
[edit]- ^ "2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)". The Cook Political Report. April 3, 2025. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
- ^ "Election 2024: House results". CNN. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. Retrieved December 6, 2025.
- ^ "2026 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 10, 2025.
- ^ "The 2026 House Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
- ^ rice@dccc.org (April 8, 2025). "DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play". DCCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
- ^ iwata@dccc.org (December 10, 2025). "DCCC Expands the Battlefield in 2026 with New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
- ^ iwata@dccc.org (February 10, 2026). "DCCC Announces Second Expansion of the House Battlefield for 2026 Cycle with 5 New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved February 10, 2026.
- ^ Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025). "NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority". NRCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.