Was it packed houses or empty auditoriums juiced by group sales?
That’s the obsession over the opening of Amazon MGM Studios‘ $75M First Lady Melania documentary from director Brett Ratner, which debuted to $7M, the biggest opening for a non-fiction feature in the last decade, outstripping Angel Studios’ 2023 title, After Death ($5M opening), and ahead of the doc’s $5M forecast. The per theater average was $3,96K. Amazon MGM Studios isn’t expected to report foreign B.O., but when we get our hands on some figures, we’ll let you know.
Understand the following: when a movie goes out on close to 1,800 runs, it has the potential to do $30M. Melania‘s opening is above the recent norms for documentaries, but not to a crazy degree—read Am I Racist?, a recent conservative non-fiction pic distributed by SDG Releasing, which opened to $4.5M in mid-September 2024. Melania crushed it exactly where she was suppose to in red zone counties per box office metrics corp EntTelligence. Of her 600K admissions, 53% were from theaters in red zones, versus 47% in blue (note she had more programmed seats heading into the weekend in blue over red, 55% to 45%). Melania overperformed in Texas and Florida where Donald Trump‘s constituency lies with a number of cities in the Sunshine state popping in the top 10 (when do we ever see Ft. Myers/Naples in the top 10?), read 1. Los Angeles (underperformed) 2. New York (underperformed) 3. Dallas/Ft. Worth (overperformed) 4. Tampa (overperformed) 5. Orlando (overperformed) 6. Phoenix (overperformed) 7. Houston (overperformed) 8. Washington DC (even) 9. Ft. Myers (overperformed) 10. Philadelphia (even).
Watch on Deadline
Related Stories
From the box office data alone, and from where Melania played, the odds are against any theory that a great degree of juicing went on at the box office. We told you earlier this week that Melania was set to triumph in rural areas (populations of 100k-500k). That happened with such population centers repping 39% of attendance to urban/1M+ at 32%, medium sized markets (500K-1M) attracting 22% and highly rural (under 100k) only appealing to 7% per EntTelligence. Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak audience exits showed that Melania played like a faith-based movie: 72% female, 72% over 55. Women over 25 repped 69% of ticket buyers. Republicans showed up at 49% and those identifying themselves as conservative turned up at 47%. CinemaScore was an ‘A’ ala a faith-based movie.
Before its release, Am I Racist? was programmed in 56% blue zone theaters versus red zone theaters.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen loudspeaker wattage for a documentary from both the press and a studio in regards to its promotion—the last arguably being Michael Moore’s 2004 Cannes Palme D’Or winner Fahrenheit 9/11 about how the Bush administration used 9/11 to catapult their agenda for unjust wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. That Lionsgate release still reigns with the biggest opening for a documentary at $23.2M, and note that was achieved on 868 theaters along with a $27,5K theater average in late June 2024.
In addition to a big ad on Las Vegas’ Sphere which was timed to the one-year anniversary of the inauguration on Jan. 20, Amazon MGM Studios per iSpot shelled out close to $4M in linear ads to Send Help‘s $20M and Black Bear’s $3.4M for Shelter (again per iSpot metrics). The campaign for Melania reached a half billion with ads airing during NFL, The Five, The Ingraham Angle, America’s Newsroom and Fox and Friends as well as on Hallmark, Fox and ABC. Amazon MGM also secured ad spots during CBS’s NFL AFC Wild Card game on Jan. 11 and Fox’s divisional game on Jan. 17. There were outdoor placements for the First Lady’s doc in Mexico City, Tokyo, London and more. Get this, there were also commemorative movie tickets and popcorn buckets at some theaters.
How can you declare that a documentary which cost $40M to license (by the way that also includes docuseries rights for Amazon MGM Studios) and $35M to market a success? Dummy, it’s Amazon MGM Studios. As we saw last weekend in the underperformance of Mercy, the trillion-dollar company can afford to make rounding errors. “There’s no stakes at Amazon,” an insider told us once about the studio’s uninhibited financial ability to push its TV shows and movies. The financial plan is that when Melania arrives on Prime it will spur ad sales and signups.
Melania was one of two titles in an unconventional weekend at the box office; the other notable movie being YouTuber Markiplier’s genre pic Iron Lung which with a $17M second place fiercely went toe-to-toe with Sam Raimi’s original island thriller Send Help (Disney calling a $20M No. 1).
In terms of overall attendance, Iron Lung had 21% of the foot traffic this weekend, Send Help pulled in 19% and Melania 10% per EntTelligence.
Heading into the weekend, social media was consumed with spotting where Melania wasn’t selling out.
One of the wildest things found online was a Craigslist Boston market post offering $50 and a free ticket to see Melania. It’s Craigslist, so who the hell knows how legit this was. From our scope, we didn’t find any other offers on Craigslist in other markets. Boston was Melania‘s No. 18 market and underperformed. Hence if that juicing ticket offer was true—well, it failed.
POTUS always saw a silver lining:
Amazon MGM Studios Head of Domestic Theatrical Distribution, Kevin Wilson said this morning, “We’re very encouraged by the strong start and positive audience response, with early box office for Melania exceeding our expectations. This momentum is an important first step in what we see as a long-tail lifecycle for both the film and the forthcoming docuseries, extending well beyond the theatrical window and into what we believe will be a significant run for both on our service. We are confident in the long-term value this rollout will deliver to customers both in theaters, and for years to come on Prime Video.”
You’ll be wrong. As always.
I’m not sure “Documentary” is the right category for this thing.
I’m not understanding how ‘non-fiction feature’ excludes both The Eras Tour and The Life of a Showgirl Launch Party (the latter grossed $35 million in one weekend)? Can appreciate not classifying them as documentaries but that’s not the term being used here.
My bet is that all future sales don’t get to 7 million. All the hard core supporters went out this weekend.
You will be wrong as usual.
If you spend $35 million marketing a steaming turd you will get some takers.