Future climate projections for Pacific Northwest and Great Basin Tribes in the USA.
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Maps & Graphs
View maps and graphs that summarize projected changes in climate across your selected geography. You may tailor the view using the choices below.
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Climate-related Variable
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Create a report that summarizes projected changes across the selected tribe's geography.
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Climate-related Variable
Temperature
Annual Average
Jun.-Aug. Avg. Daily Max.
Warm Days Above 86°F (30°C)
Freeze Free Days
Heat Accumulation
Above 32°F (0°C)
Above 40°F (3°C)
Above 45°F (5°C)
Above 50°F (10°C)
Precipitation
Annual Total
Oct-Mar Total
Apr-Sept Total
Snow Water Equivalent(SWE)
On April 1st
On May 1st
Soil Moisture
Jul-Sept
Water Deficit
Jul-Sept
Vegetation
Growing Season
Fire
Very High Fire Danger
Extreme Fire Danger
Area Burned
Without Fire Suppression
Units
Units for temperatures:Units for water metrics:
Future Time Periods
2010-20392040-2069
2070-2099
Future Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Low Emission ScenarioHigh Emission Scenario
Click on the map to see values at specific locations.
Risk assessment:
Likelihood of Exceedance:
Likelihood of Exceedance:99%
83%
50%
17%
10%
5%
1%
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License and Tool Citation
About This Tool
Tool Summary
Download a multi-page summary of the Tribal Climate tool.
Tribal Reservations of the Pacific Northwest or Great Basin
Select a tribal reservation from those listed for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin regions of the United States.If this is your first visit to this webpage, we recommend that you start with a tour.
Documentation
Geographies
Custom tribal geographies were identified through outreach to Northwest and Great Basin tribes. They are not intended to reflect legally binding boundaries.
Reservation geographies were provided as a default for all tribes. Reservation boundaries were accessed from publically available sources.
Please contact us if you would like to rename or remove a geography provided for your tribe, or if you would like to add a geography for your tribe (up to three custom geographies allowed). Inquiries can be sent to mkrosby@uw.edu.
Source
Click on the type of data from the tool to reveal information about the data source.
Data Product: Projected Future Conditions, Climate
Data Source: MACAv2-METDATA, version 2
Organization: University of Idaho
Spatial Extent: Contiguous USA
Spatial Resolution: 1/24-deg (4-km, 2.5-mile)
Description: Projections from 20 climate models and 2 scenarios were downscaled to a ~4-km resolution across the US for compatibility with the gridMET data.
Link: http://www.climatologylab.org/maca.html
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA
Data Citation: Abatzoglou J.T. and Brown T.J. A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications, International Journal of Climatology (2012), 32, 772-780
Data Source: MACAv2-METDATA, version 2
Organization: University of Idaho
Spatial Extent: Contiguous USA
Spatial Resolution: 1/24-deg (4-km, 2.5-mile)
Description: Projections from 20 climate models and 2 scenarios were downscaled to a ~4-km resolution across the US for compatibility with the gridMET data.
Link: http://www.climatologylab.org/maca.html
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA
Data Citation: Abatzoglou J.T. and Brown T.J. A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications, International Journal of Climatology (2012), 32, 772-780
Data Product: Projected Future Conditions, Hydrology
Data Source: VIC forced by MACAv2-LIVNEH, VIC (v4.1.2 ), MACA (v2), Livneh (V13 US, v14 BC Canada)
Organization: University of Washington
Spatial Extent: Western USA, USA
Spatial Resolution: 1/16-deg (6-km, 3.7-mile)
Description: Projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 scenarios were downscaled to 1/16th degree using MACAv2. The downscaling was trained on gridded historical observations of meteorology from Livneh (v13 for USA and v14 for British Columbia, Canada). Downscaled GCM forcings were then used to force the VIC (v 4.1.2) hydrologic model for the historic period (1950-2005) and future period (2006-2100).
Link: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Citation:
Data Source: VIC forced by MACAv2-LIVNEH, VIC (v4.1.2 ), MACA (v2), Livneh (V13 US, v14 BC Canada)
Organization: University of Washington
Spatial Extent: Western USA, USA
Spatial Resolution: 1/16-deg (6-km, 3.7-mile)
Description: Projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 scenarios were downscaled to 1/16th degree using MACAv2. The downscaling was trained on gridded historical observations of meteorology from Livneh (v13 for USA and v14 for British Columbia, Canada). Downscaled GCM forcings were then used to force the VIC (v 4.1.2) hydrologic model for the historic period (1950-2005) and future period (2006-2100).
Link: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Citation:
- Mote, P., Abatzoglou, J., Lettenmaier, D., Turner, D., Rupp, D., Bachelet, D., Conklin, D. (2017) “Final report for Integrated Scenarios of climate, hydrology, and vegetation for the Northwest”.
- Mote, Philip W., John T. Abatzoglou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Dave P. Turner, David E. Rupp, Dominique Bachelet, and David R. Conklin. Integrated Scenarios of Climate, Hydrology, and Vegetation for the Northwest, Final Report. Corvallis, Oregon: Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2014.
Data Product: Projected Future Conditions, Streamflows
Data Source:Stream Routing of VIC forced by MACAv2-LIVNEH, VIC (v4.1.2 ), MACA (v2), Livneh (V13 US, v14 BC Canada) utilizing river routing scheme (Lohmann et al., 1998) and "no regulation-no irrigation (NRNI)" observations.
Organization: University of Washington
Spatial Extent: Key locations along streams and rivers in the Western USA, USA, some coincident with stream gauges
Spatial Resolution:point locations
Description: This dataset represents future projections of non-regulated streamflows at key stream loactions in the Western United States. This dataset was generated from the non-regulated stream routing of VIC hydrologic outputs which were forced with MACAv2-LIVNEH statistical downscaling of the CMIP5 global climate model outputs. Projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 scenarios were downscaled to 1/16th degree using VIC forced by MACAv2. The downscaling was trained on gridded historical observations of meteorology from Livneh (v13 for USA and v14 for British Columbia, Canada). Downscaled GCM forcings were then used to force the VIC (v 4.1.2) hydrologic model for the historic period (1950-2005) and future period (2006-2100). A river routing scheme (Lohmann et al., 1998) was used to connect runoff from the upstream watershed to simulate river flow at various locations.
Link: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
The "no regulation-no irrigation(NRNI)" observations is a set of streamflows that remove the effects of reservoir operations and irrigation withdrawals. This was put together by the River Management Joint Operating Committee, a partnership of the Bonneville Power Administration, the Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation.
Data Citation:Lohmann, D., R. Nolte-Holube, and E. Raschke, 1996: A large-scale horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parametrization schemes, Tellus, 48(A), 708-721
Mote, Philip W., John T. Abatzoglou, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Dave P. Turner, David E. Rupp, Dominique Bachelet, and David R. Conklin. Integrated Scenarios of Climate, Hydrology, and Vegetation for the Northwest, Final Report. Corvallis, Oregon: Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 2014.
Data Source:Stream Routing of VIC forced by MACAv2-LIVNEH, VIC (v4.1.2 ), MACA (v2), Livneh (V13 US, v14 BC Canada) utilizing river routing scheme (Lohmann et al., 1998) and "no regulation-no irrigation (NRNI)" observations.
Organization: University of Washington
Spatial Extent: Key locations along streams and rivers in the Western USA, USA, some coincident with stream gauges
Spatial Resolution:point locations
Description: This dataset represents future projections of non-regulated streamflows at key stream loactions in the Western United States. This dataset was generated from the non-regulated stream routing of VIC hydrologic outputs which were forced with MACAv2-LIVNEH statistical downscaling of the CMIP5 global climate model outputs. Projections from 10 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 scenarios were downscaled to 1/16th degree using VIC forced by MACAv2. The downscaling was trained on gridded historical observations of meteorology from Livneh (v13 for USA and v14 for British Columbia, Canada). Downscaled GCM forcings were then used to force the VIC (v 4.1.2) hydrologic model for the historic period (1950-2005) and future period (2006-2100). A river routing scheme (Lohmann et al., 1998) was used to connect runoff from the upstream watershed to simulate river flow at various locations.
Link: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
The "no regulation-no irrigation(NRNI)" observations is a set of streamflows that remove the effects of reservoir operations and irrigation withdrawals. This was put together by the River Management Joint Operating Committee, a partnership of the Bonneville Power Administration, the Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation.
Data Citation:
Data Product: Projected Future Conditions, Stream Temperatures
Data Source: NorWeST
Organization: University of Idaho
Spatial Extent: Western USA
Spatial Resolution: (1-km,0.6-mile) stream segments
Description: The NorWeST stream temperature model is used to produce projections of stream temperatures for key streams around the Western United States. The climate model used here is the dynamically downscaled NCEP RegCM3 and the future scenario is the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario.
Link: https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html
Data Website: https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST/StreamTemperatureDataSummaries.shtml
Data Citation: Isaak, D., S. Wenger, E. Peterson, J. Ver Hoef, D. Nagel, C. Luce, S. Hostetler, J. Dunham, B. Roper, S. Wollrab, G. Chandler, D. Horan, S. Parkes-Payne. 2017. The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams. Water Resources Research, 53: 9181-9205. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969.
Data Source: NorWeST
Organization: University of Idaho
Spatial Extent: Western USA
Spatial Resolution: (1-km,0.6-mile) stream segments
Description: The NorWeST stream temperature model is used to produce projections of stream temperatures for key streams around the Western United States. The climate model used here is the dynamically downscaled NCEP RegCM3 and the future scenario is the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario.
Link: https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html
Data Website: https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST/StreamTemperatureDataSummaries.shtml
Data Citation: Isaak, D., S. Wenger, E. Peterson, J. Ver Hoef, D. Nagel, C. Luce, S. Hostetler, J. Dunham, B. Roper, S. Wollrab, G. Chandler, D. Horan, S. Parkes-Payne. 2017. The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams. Water Resources Research, 53: 9181-9205. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969.
Data Product: Projected Future Conditions, Vegetation
Data Source: MC2
Organization: Conservation Biology Institute
Spatial Extent: Western USA
Spatial Resolution: 1/24-deg (4-km, 2.5-mile)
Description: The dynamic global vegetation model MC2 was run over the western United States at 1/24-deg resolution to simulate the impacts of climate futures generated by 20 global climate models using 2 future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. MC2 vegetation was modelled by first simulating potential natural vegetation dynamics simulated assuming no human impacts (without fire suppression management) and then assuming that the only land-use practice is fire suppression. The climate data for these runs came from MACAv1-PRISM and the future scenarios are RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 from the CMIP5 project.
Link: https://climate.databasin.org/articles/8e01bd5f101c4863a0d6a69d58c9298b
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Citation: Simulating Broad-Scale Fire Severity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. J.M. Lenihan, C. Daly, D. Bachelet, and R.P. Neilson. Northwest Science 72:91-103 (1998)
Data Source: MC2
Organization: Conservation Biology Institute
Spatial Extent: Western USA
Spatial Resolution: 1/24-deg (4-km, 2.5-mile)
Description: The dynamic global vegetation model MC2 was run over the western United States at 1/24-deg resolution to simulate the impacts of climate futures generated by 20 global climate models using 2 future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. MC2 vegetation was modelled by first simulating potential natural vegetation dynamics simulated assuming no human impacts (without fire suppression management) and then assuming that the only land-use practice is fire suppression. The climate data for these runs came from MACAv1-PRISM and the future scenarios are RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 from the CMIP5 project.
Link: https://climate.databasin.org/articles/8e01bd5f101c4863a0d6a69d58c9298b
Data Website: https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/IntegratedScenarios/
Data Citation: Simulating Broad-Scale Fire Severity in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. J.M. Lenihan, C. Daly, D. Bachelet, and R.P. Neilson. Northwest Science 72:91-103 (1998)
Data Product: Projected Future Conditions, Sea Level Rise (WA Coast)
Data Source: Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP)
Organization: University of Washington
Spatial Extent: Washington State Coastline
Spatial Resolution: 0.1-degree grid (equivalent to roughly 5-7 miles)
Description: This project provides an updated set of sea level rise (SLR) projections that incorporates the latest science, provides community-scale projections, and is designed for direct application to risk management and planning. The SLR projections are generated from a suite of components including 1) land-based glacier & ice sheet melt,2) thermal expansion, 3) oceanographic processes, 4) ice sheet melt, 5) land water storage.
Link: http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/wcrp-documents.html
Data Website: http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/wcrp-documents.html
Data Citation:
Miller, I.M., Morgan, H., Mauger, G., Newton, T., Weldon, R., Schmidt, D., Welch, M., Grossman, E. 2018. Projected Sea Level Rise for Washington State – A 2018 Assessment. A collaboration of Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, Oregon State University, University of Washington, and US Geological Survey. Prepared for the Washington Coastal Resilience Project.
Data Source: Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP)
Organization: University of Washington
Spatial Extent: Washington State Coastline
Spatial Resolution: 0.1-degree grid (equivalent to roughly 5-7 miles)
Description: This project provides an updated set of sea level rise (SLR) projections that incorporates the latest science, provides community-scale projections, and is designed for direct application to risk management and planning. The SLR projections are generated from a suite of components including 1) land-based glacier & ice sheet melt,2) thermal expansion, 3) oceanographic processes, 4) ice sheet melt, 5) land water storage.
Link: http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/wcrp-documents.html
Data Website: http://www.wacoastalnetwork.com/wcrp-documents.html
Data Citation:
Miller, I.M., Morgan, H., Mauger, G., Newton, T., Weldon, R., Schmidt, D., Welch, M., Grossman, E. 2018. Projected Sea Level Rise for Washington State – A 2018 Assessment. A collaboration of Washington Sea Grant, University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, Oregon State University, University of Washington, and US Geological Survey. Prepared for the Washington Coastal Resilience Project.
Data Product: Projected Future Conditions, Sea Level Rise (OR/CA Coast)
Data Source: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
Organization: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Spatial Extent: Oregon & Northern California State Coastline
Spatial Resolution: 1-degree grid (equivalent to roughly 50-70 miles)
Description: This dataset provides a set of sea level rise (SLR) projections for six global sea level rise scenarios (Low, Intermediate Low, Intermediate, Intermediate High, High, and Extreme) for each decade 2010- 2100 (Sweet et al. 2017). Relative SLR (RSLR) projections, which give the change in sea level relative to land, are available for about 20 locations along the coasts of Oregon and California.
Link:Sea Level Rise Viewer
Data Website:Download
Data Citation:
Sweet, W.V., R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, J. Obeysekera, R.M. Horton, E.R. Thieler, and C. Zervas, 2017: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083. NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. PDF
Data Source: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
Organization: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Spatial Extent: Oregon & Northern California State Coastline
Spatial Resolution: 1-degree grid (equivalent to roughly 50-70 miles)
Description: This dataset provides a set of sea level rise (SLR) projections for six global sea level rise scenarios (Low, Intermediate Low, Intermediate, Intermediate High, High, and Extreme) for each decade 2010- 2100 (Sweet et al. 2017). Relative SLR (RSLR) projections, which give the change in sea level relative to land, are available for about 20 locations along the coasts of Oregon and California.
Link:Sea Level Rise Viewer
Data Website:Download
Data Citation:
Sweet, W.V., R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, J. Obeysekera, R.M. Horton, E.R. Thieler, and C. Zervas, 2017: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083. NOAA/NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. PDF
Tool
Tool Title:Type of Tool: Mapping, Graphing, Reports
Description: This tool provides maps, graphs and reports that summarize projected changes in climate for tribes in the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin.
Usefulness: The dynamic mapping interface uses the best available science from climate projections and provides a straightforward way for tribes to visualize and understand local climate projections.
Contributors: The Tribal Climate Tool was co-created with Northwest and Great Basin tribes, with technical contributions from:
- Meade Krosby, Robert Norheim, Harriet Morgan, Crystal Raymond, Guillaume Mauger, Kimberly Yazzie and Amy Snover at the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington
- Katherine Hegewisch and John Abatzoglou at the University of California Merced
- Don Sampson, Affiliated Tribes of Northwest Indians
- Laura Gephart, Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission
- Eliza Ghitis, Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission
- Scott Hauser, Upper Snake River Tribes Foundation
- Chas Jones, Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center
- Kathy Lynn, University of Oregon
- David Redhorse, Bureau of Indian Affairs
- Kyle Whyte, Michigan State University
Suggested Citation: To cite a figure used from this tool, please use the following:
Funding: This tool was created with funding from:
Icon Credits:
Map By Nikita Kozin, RU from the Noun ProjectGraph By Harper from the Noun Project
Report by Ramesha from the Noun ProjectContact: Meade Krosby (mkrosby@uw.edu)