The Case for Steve Sarkisian to Leave the Texas Longhorns for the NFL

In his own words, Steve Sarkisian says he has no plans to leave Texas. Let's start there.

Given the current climate and the state of football at the University of Texas and beyond, however, we're ready to ask if he should take a moment to reconsider.  

To be clear, Sarkisian is a fine coach and one of the sport's most brilliant offensive minds. In a relatively short period of time, he has brought Texas back to a level of excellence we expect. He's done incredible things, and he deserves credit for that.

Now, the 51-year-old needs to read the room and think about himself. And perhaps he's doing just that.

How exactly we arrived here requires proper context. On Saturday morning, Dianna Russini of The Athletic reported Sarkisian's representatives had reached out to the NFL, alerting clubs that their client would be interested in head coach openings in the league.

Sarkisian's reps, which include super-agent Jimmy Sexton, quickly denied those reports shortly after they made waves. Hours later, after Texas mounted a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback against Mississippi State, Sarkisian flatly denied it as well, showing plenty of emotion in doing so:

"It really pisses me off that one person can make a report that in turn, the entire media sports world runs with as factual. To the point of my agency and my agents have to put a statement out, that they have never done, historically.  I had to do that to protect my locker room and my team. I thought it was absolutely ridiculous. I thought it was completely unprofessional of that person to put that report out."

Pick a side, any side. If you believe the report, and this writer tends to lean that way, that's perfectly acceptable. If you think Sarkisian's agents have had zero contact with those in NFL circles and this concept was totally fabricated for clicks, that's fine, too.

We're not here to validate either stance, although these things don't normally just emerge.

Regardless, we're here to offer Sarkisian one piece of advice as some of the biggest jobs in college football open up.

If the NFL will have you, take the opportunity—unless the situation is a complete disaster—and don't look back. The writing is on the wall. The coach is entering a new phase at Texas, and this phase is not normally kind.

As a whole, the state of coaching at a major program in college football can essentially be broken down into three distinct phases.

There's the honeymoon phase, which is much shorter than it used to be. New coaches have two years to turn around programs, maybe three depending on the job. After that, all bets are off.

There's the extension phase, which is the greatest professional time of a coach's life. His team is experiencing success, and the university will do whatever possible to keep this coach from leaving for another job. This means more money and more guaranteed years. It also means greater expectations.

Then, there's the phase of general unrest. It's the longest phase of all, and it's toughest to hold off. It typically starts with whispers, and it eventually becomes an uproar. It doesn't happen all at once, although once it begins, it's rare that things go in a different direction.

Ryan Day at Ohio State is the exception. It got loud after yet another loss to Michigan, although a national title at a time when he needed it changed everything,

Sarkisian enjoyed a honeymoon phase, and there was an understanding that he would need time to rebuild Texas. To his credit, he did just that.

From five wins to eight wins to 12 wins to 13 wins, the Longhorns have shown dramatic improvement. They've won playoff games. They've transitioned to the SEC somewhat seamlessly. All things considered, things have gone extraordinarily well.

Until now.

From managing the ups and downs with Arch Manning's play to matching the expectations that came with being ranked the No. 1 team in college football before the season began, the unrest has arrived.

The Manning situation, in particular, is slippery. Not just for the rest of the season, but for whatever comes next.

Following a dramatic comeback win over Mississippi State, Texas is now 6-2. Given the state of the discussion and the weekly analysis of how underwhelming the performance sometimes looks, one would assume things are worse.

Things have turned. They didn't happen all at once. Instead, they happened gradually. And if and when Texas loses again this year, which seems likely, it will continue to build.

In many respects, this is why Sarkisian should listen. At a time when coaches are being fired quicker than ever before, finding a soft landing is a sensible thing to do. Finding a soft landing in an environment that has more guardrails and far less volatility makes the decision that much easier.

No NIL. No transfer portal. No boosters to please. No long recruiting trips. And the checks will still be as big if not bigger. Any sensible human would almost certainly consider the same options.

And Sarkisian could succeed at the NFL level. He served as the Atlanta Falcons' offensive coordinator for two seasons before rejoining Nick Saban at Alabama. He's coached on Sundays, albeit for an abbreviated time.

His offensive expertise will play anywhere. It would also make him an interesting option for NFL franchises—such as the Titans—that need guidance for a young quarterback.

Again, this isn't all that complicated, and that is coming from someone who overwhelmingly prefers college football to the NFL. Running an elite program is an exhausting proposition. Doing so with the rumblings starting to build is a different beast entirely.

Sure, Sarkisian can lead an elite program. This has nothing to do with the past few years, which have largely been exceptional. This is about resetting the clock, specifically seeking a new honeymoon phase to begin.

Maybe the report is true. Maybe it's not. Either way, Sarkisian would be foolish not to contemplate leaving on his own terms before someone asks him to leave first.