Every MLB Team's Toughest 2025-26 Free-Agency Decision

With the 2025 MLB postseason now into its second week, it isn't just the World Series that is getting closer every day.

The same is also true of the opening of the free-agent market. And while there is no Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto looking to make a run at all-time riches this winter, teams are still going to have difficult choices to make.

We want to talk about one of each for all 30 teams, though they vary in size and scope. Some clubs face genuine dilemmas with how to re-sign or replace star players, while others only have to decide exactly how frugal they want to be when the market opens. Even the latter, however, will need to plan their moves carefully.

We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East and ending in the National League West.

Baltimore Orioles: How hard to hit the starting pitching market

It's not entirely the rotation's fault that the Orioles suffered a 16-loss swing from 2024 to 2025, but it obviously didn't help in posting a 4.65 ERA. And now, Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano are ticketed for free agency.

Yet even setting aside the question of whether the Orioles will buck their prior strategies by spending in free agency, there is the matter of how they should address their rotation.

They never did replace Corbin Burnes in the No. 1 hole, but they'll have Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez standing by to audition next spring. As such, they could be justified in prioritizing depth over impact.

Boston Red Sox: Where to draw the line on Alex Bregman

Bregman may yet opt in for the two years and $80 million remaining on his contract, but Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says it's a "near certainty" that he will opt out.

If so, the Red Sox would stand to lose a guy who proved to be a perfect fit in Boston. Bregman was terrific in the clubhouse and one of the best players Alex Cora had, posting a 128 OPS+ and 3.5 rWAR.

Then again, he's also 31 years old and coming off a less-than-excellent stretch after a long injury absence. Clearly, the Red Sox need to have some kind of red line in negotiations.

New York Yankees: Whether to retain Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham

This is assuming that Bellinger will decline his $25 million player option for 2026, which seems likely after he hit 29 homers with 5.0 rWAR this season.

As Grisham put up 34 homers and 3.5 rWAR in his own right, the Yankees could be about to have two huge holes to fill in their outfield. And if they decide they can't live without Bellinger and Grisham, money should be no object.

Then again, this might be one of those times when it's OK to say thank you and move on. As Bellinger and Grisham have been inconsistent in recent years, the Yankees might look for safer investments elsewhere.

Tampa Bay Rays: Whether to make a Luis Severino play

The reference here is to how Severino was merely a B list free agent last winter until, suddenly, the A's came out of nowhere with a club-record contract for him.

One can imagine the Rays making a similar play on a free agent, albeit for different reasons. Whereas the A's had revenue-sharing money to spend, the Rays have a new ownership group that could and arguably should make an instant impact.

If so, another bat would be ideal. Though they led MLB with 194 stolen bases, the Rays were pretty much average across the board offensively.

Toronto Blue Jays: Where to draw the line on Bo Bichette

The Blue Jays obviously have more pressing matters to see to right now, but Bichette is the most notable name of an upcoming free-agent class that also includes Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer.

As a .294 career hitter who plays a premium position, Bichette figures to be in high demand this winter. So if the Blue Jays want to keep him, it's going to cost them.

However, they know his flaws better than everyone else. Those include poor defense and a cluttered injury history, both of which should make them wary of doing a lucrative long-term deal.

Chicago White Sox: Whether to pick up Luis Robert Jr.'s option

The White Sox say they're going to look at the free-agent market, but it's hard to imagine them actually doing anything on it.

The more interesting question is whether they'll make Robert a free agent by declining his $20 million option for next season. It's a fair rate for a star, and he can play like one when he's healthy and clicking. For most of his career, though, he's been neither.

For what it's worth, a poll put out by MLB Trade Rumors last month has nearly 60 percent support for the White Sox moving on from the 2023 All-Star.

Cleveland Guardians: Whether to risk it with a splash

Granted, the Guardians and splashes in free agency don't normally go together. Since 1991, they rank 26th among all clubs in free-agent spending.

Every now and then, though, they pull off a surprise on a Nick Swisher or an Edwin Encarnacion. And after a surprise run to the AL Central title, this winter might be a good time to go back to the well, so to speak.

If the Guardians agree, they badly need to address an offense that asks too much of José Ramírez. If not, well, they'll start over as underdogs in 2026.

Detroit Tigers: Which free agent deserves an overdue risk

Speaking of teams with a tendency to sit out free agency, the Tigers have not exactly been big spenders under president of baseball operations Scott Harris. He has yet to do more than a two-year deal with anyone.

It would be an embarrassment if he didn't at least try to do better this winter. The Tigers are now two years into a contention cycle, and they don't know if Tarik Skubal is going to still be around after next year. Going all-in needs to be the goal.

If the Tigers do spend money, it should be on another ace who could be a No. 2 behind Skubal in 2026. To this end, who doesn't want to see a reunion with Justin Verlander?

Kansas City Royals: What to do about the outfield

If the Royals are going to return to the playoffs in 2026, they badly need to do something about their outfield.

It was entirely non-productive in 2025, posting -0.7 rWAR and a .633 OPS. It also had just 37 home runs, the fewest of any team outside of Tampa Bay.

The Royals obviously won't break the bank on a Kyle Tucker, but it would be worth their while to chance it on someone who could get cold-shouldered by the rest of the market. Trent Grisham, for example, could be in for that kind of treatment.

Minnesota Twins: Whether to even bother

The Twins are only a couple months out from blowing it up, and whether they're in for still more payroll crunching is the question that is top of mind right now.

Accordingly, this may well be a winter in which the Twins completely sit out free agency. Maybe not to the extent that they don't sign anyone, but they could make like the Marlins and Cardinals last winter and stop at one signing.

If the Twins decide to be more ambitious than that, you wonder if they could look for cheap athleticism for the sake of carrying over their late-season identity. To this end, Cedric Mullins could be a good buy-low candidate.

Athletics: How to make another strong push on pitching

The A's are steadily chipping away at their irrelevance in the AL West, including with a 35-29 run after the All-Star break this year.

The offense is clearly there, but even big splashes on Luis Severino (free agency) and Jeffrey Springs (trade) from last winter only did so much to help the rotation. After posting just 5.0 rWAR this year, it needs to be a priority this winter.

And yet, these are the A's we're talking about. A second straight splashy offseason feels unlikely, in which case they'll have to find what they can in the bargain bin.

Houston Astros: How (if at all) to replace Framber Valdez

Valdez is certainly the most notable pending free agent in Houston, and it's hard to imagine him coming back.

For one thing, he's likely headed for a nine-figure deal after pitching to a 124 ERA+ in eight years as an Astro. For another, his 2025 season didn't end on the happiest note.

Valdez's departure would leave a hole in the rotation, but the Astros might get away with leaving it unfilled. With Hunter Brown and a healthy Cristian Javier positioned to lead their rotation in 2026, they might get away with shopping for depth instead of another ace.

Los Angeles Angels: How to reload the pitching staff

The Angels should be rebuilding, but that's just not how Arte Moreno rolls. They're likely to keep trying to contend in 2026.

To this end, the Angels know they need to address a rotation that produced only 6.8 rWAR and which stands to lose Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks. They'll need to go get at least two starters.

It's been a minute since the Angels splurged on a free agent, but the time may be right to get back into the top of the market. There will be a plethora of options, including Valdez, Dylan Cease, Michael King and Ranger Suárez.

Seattle Mariners: Where to draw the line on Josh Naylor

The Mariners are being unusually open about how badly they want to keep Naylor, and who can blame them?

He was terrific for them after coming over from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline, with a 138 OPS+, nine homers and 19 stolen bases in 54 games. He was also a hit in the clubhouse and an instant fan favorite.

However, Naylor is also a first baseman with limited power who has maxed out at 3.1 rWAR. It's a risky profile, and that much more so for a franchise that is typically cautious with its free-agent investments.

Texas Rangers: How to rebuild the bullpen

Given the financial uncertainty that contributed to Bruce Bochy's exit, it's a good idea not to expect too much of the Rangers on this winter's market.

They surely won't do nothing, however, and the list of priorities needs to begin with rebuilding the bullpen. It was worth -0.6 rWAR this season, and it stands to lose a bunch of members to the open market.

The trick will be to find low-risk guys who come with the promise of high reward. There are always plenty of these types on the free-agent market, and there could be buy-low options (i.e., Ryan Helsley) within Texas' price range.

Atlanta Braves: How to replace Marcell Ozuna and Raisel Iglesias

The Braves could conceivably bring back both Ozuna and Iglesias for 2026, but it's probably best if they move on. Each is in his mid-30s and past his prime.

The good news is that those two alone will free up $32 million in salary for the Braves to allocate elsewhere. A good chunk of that will be taken up by arbitration raises, however, and what's left may not buy quality for both the DH spot and the closer's role.

If the Braves are going to prioritize one over the other, it should be the closer's role. Relief pitching was simply too big of a weakness for them this year even with Iglesias, with the entire pen producing only 2.8 rWAR.

Miami Marlins: Whether the time is right for a splash

The Marlins weren't good this year, but going from 100 losses to just 83 from one season to the next is a danged quantum leap. Hopefully, the Marlins will build on it.

It's the franchise's history of sitting out free agency that makes the "hopefully" necessary, but this is a perfect time for the Marlins to go in a different direction. They don't have any guaranteed money on their books after 2026, and they won't owe Avisaíl García anything after this year.

Even if they have to overpay someone, an experienced hitter should be Miami's top priority on the open market. Speaking of Ozuna, it would be fun to see a reunion with him.

New York Mets: Where to draw lines on Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz 

Alonso has already decided to decline his $24 million player option, while Díaz may well decline the two years, $37 million remaining on his deal.

If so, that's two huge pieces that will suddenly be missing from a roster that didn't even prove to be playoff quality this season. Alonso tallied 80 extra-base hits, while Díaz posted a 1.63 ERA and saved 28 games.

Yet as much as it seems like Steve Cohen has no limits on spending, he did hold firm on Alonso just last winter. As he is now one year older and Díaz is 31 and one year removed from a trying season, expect Cohen to hold firm all over again with both Alonso and Díaz.

Philadelphia Phillies: Where to draw the line on Kyle Schwarber

As a 32-year-old who only has power as a carrying tool, Schwarber doesn't fit the mold of a hyper-expensive free agent in the modern age.

It nonetheless feels all but certain that he'll go and set his own mold after slamming 187 home runs in four seasons with Philadelphia. Nine figures seems likely, even if it's only in a short-term deal.

One can make the case that the Phillies should spare no expense, but better advice would be to exercise some caution. After four years like that, chances are they've already gotten the most they're ever going to get out of Schwarber.

Washington Nationals: Which value buys to pursue

The Nationals just hired a new president of baseball operations to reboot their rebuild, and he'll be reporting to an ownership group that doesn't seem terribly interested right now.

It would therefore be folly to expect the Nats to be especially active on the offseason market. Coming off a 96-loss season, they're more likely to scrounge for buy-low candidates they can refurbish into trade chips.

Pitching should take priority to this end, with potential partners including Nestor Cortes and Jordan Romano.

Chicago Cubs: Where to draw the line on Kyle Tucker

The question of whether Tucker will be a one and done in Chicago has hung over the Cubs since they first acquired him. And if it's true that they were never serious about extending him, that much more so now.

All the same, the Cubs should be in the market to re-sign Tucker this winter. Perhaps saying as much is wishful thinking but, come on, this team is a revenue giant with a wide-open contention window.

Yet the Cubs already have a sort of pre-baked excuse not to go 100 percent on bringing Tucker back. He was good for them this year, but not quite great after hand and calf injuries basically wrecked the second half of his season.

Cincinnati Reds: How to put a charge into the offense

The Reds managed to make the playoffs, but it was very much in spite of an offense that finished fifth from the bottom of MLB in OPS+.

Between Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and Noelvi Marte, the Reds do have some potentially heavy hitters who could carry them in 2026. But they need to at least go out and get some depth pieces, lest Terry Francona be left short-handed again.

Because home run power is an especially pressing need, the Reds really should consider a reunion with Eugenio Suárez. He'll be a candidate for a contract in their budget, and they know from experience how much he loves Great American Ball Park.

Milwaukee Brewers: How to refill their starting rotation

There's always turnover in Milwaukee in any given winter, and it figures to be felt in the club's rotation this time around.

This is assuming that $35 million worth of mutual options for Brandon Woodruff and José Quintana don't get exercised, which doesn't seem like a leap too far. Mutual options usually don't get picked up, and that $35 million is $27.75 million more than those two made this year.

One can see the Brewers bringing Woodruff back, but there's certainly a possibility of him and Quintana seeking greater riches elsewhere. If so, the Brewers are going to need at least two starters.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Which bats can they get to back Paul Skenes

The Pirates and free agency? Yeah, those two things don't usually go together. Since 1991, they have spent the least in free agency of any team in MLB.

There's no point in expecting things to change while Bob Nutting is still around, but you would at least hope that he'll make some kind of effort to put a winning team around Skenes while he has the chance. And right now, that means adding bats.

First base and DH were the only positions that didn't produce a sub-.700 OPS this year, so any upgrades should be on the table. They might succeed by offering full-time work to platoon hitters, such as Amed Rosario or Dylan Moore.

St. Louis Cardinals: How to bring dignity to their rotation

It's a new era in St. Louis, albeit one that begins with Chaim Bloom having a ton of work to do from his new perch as president of baseball operations.

For the most part, this figures to involve cutting salary. Nolan Arenado seems as good as gone, and Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras could go as well. And if you're expecting that to be reinvested immediately, well, don't.

However, help for a starting rotation that only managed 1.9 rWAR this year shouldn't be too much to ask. Bloom might at least chance it on a reliever-turned-starter project, such as former Cardinal Luke Weaver.

Arizona Diamondbacks: How to retain (or replace) Zac Gallen

Pitching is what has kept the D-backs out of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, so the thought of losing Gallen is a scary one indeed.

He did get off a rough start this year, but he eventually found his way back to No. 1 status with a 3.32 ERA after July. He could be in for as much as a nine-figure deal this winter.

With managing partner Ken Kendrick teasing a payroll decrease, that could be too much for the D-backs. But since he's also committed to contending again in 2026, he'll need to do something if Gallen walks.

Colorado Rockies: How to get some life into the offense

The Rockies have lost 323 games in three years, so it's OK to shout "Free agency?" in the same tone that Jim Mora once shouted "Playoffs?"

That said, the Rockies just sent new franchise lows for scoring, average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, all while still playing half their games at Coors Field. Maybe they won't get multiple new bats, but a bat would be nice.

The Rockies ranked last in rWAR at first base, second base, DH and all across their outfield. One guy can't play all those positions, but probably the best possible signing for them is Trent Grisham. His ability to hit the fastball and control the strike zone are talents that incumbent Rockies could learn from.

Los Angeles Dodgers: How to fix the bullpen

Even if they go on to win the World Series, the Dodgers need to take the plan they had for their bullpen in 2025 and launch it into the sun.

The pen ended up below water with -0.4 rWAR, and among the biggest offenders were offseason signees Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. Scott will be back, but Yates' spot in the pen is one of several that could open up.

It looks like a weak market for relievers, but the Dodgers could have a shot at Edwin Díaz and could otherwise consider buying low on Ryan Helsley.

San Diego Padres: How to retain (or replace) Dylan Cease and Michael King

Cease is going to be a free agent, and the same will be true of King once he turns down his end of his $15 million mutual option for 2025.

The Padres will have more free agents than just these guys, including Luis Arraez and Ryan O'Hearn. Yet even with Joe Musgrove due back sometime next year and Mason Miller possibly headed for the rotation, they can't simply leave their two spots unfilled.

Of course, this is not the same as saying the Padres need to have both back. Cease and King both lost value in 2025, with the former posting a 4.55 ERA and the latter missing half the year with injuries.

San Francisco Giants: Where to draw the line on Justin Verlander

Verlander's Giants tenure was a sad story until it wasn't, as the Future Hall of Famer started slow and then ripped off a 2.30 ERA over his last 13 starts.

With the Giants set to be on the prowl for starters this winter, another one-year deal with Verlander seems like a possibility. It would mean signing him for his age-43 season, but he's still throwing the ball like a much younger man, so why not?

After cutting payroll from 2024 to 2025, however, the Giants might want to shop in the more expensive aisle of the starting pitching market. It shouldn't be hard for them to sell starters on Oracle Park, especially if they're prone to homers elsewhere.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.