5 Teams Outside the CFB Top 25 Capable of a 2025 Playoff Run

Every single preseason Top 25 is destined to have mistakes.

That's the nature of an unpredictable sport like college football, where it's simply impossible to be 100 percent correct about everything. The final AP Top 25 will be much different than the preseason version just released.

So, let's try to get ahead of the game.

Last year, four programs—Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana and SMU—soared from unranked to a College Football Playoff team. In all likelihood, more schools will follow suit in 2025.

The teams in these following sections are largely based on a blend of returning talent and perceived schedule difficulty.

Looking at the Big 12, both Baylor and Utah deserve some serious consideration in this discussion. We'll highlight the former.

Baylor ended the 2024 regular season on a hot streak, rattling off six straight wins. The team returns quarterback Sawyer Robertson and a majority of his supporting cast, along with a defense bolstered by transfers in the front seven.

Confidence will not be in short supply for the Bears.

That's a necessary thing, considering Baylor plays Auburn, at SMU, Arizona State and Kansas State in the first six weeks of the campaign. We're going to find out very quickly if a veteran roster can handle that competition.

Still, the home-heavy stretch offers Dave Aranda's team a chance to earn a front-running position in the Big 12 by mid-October.

Speaking of home-heavy stretches, Louisville's slate includes only four games on the road. That's a pretty favorable schedule.

Now, will the Cardinals take advantage?

USC transfer Miller Moss has taken over the offense, which returns a rising-star duo in the backfield with Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. They both averaged at least 7.1 yards per carry in 2024.

Although the defense has undergone a facelift, UL reinforced the unit through the portal while returning a sturdy unit of linebackers.

Yes, the road games are rough. Pitt seemingly is always good for an upset at home, Miami is plenty talented, Virginia Tech boasts a loud environment and SMU is aiming at a second straight CFP trip. There's no easy win.

But after seeing the Cardinals make the ACC title game in 2023 and knock off Clemson in Death Valley last season, their upside is intriguing.

You know Bama and Texas and South Carolina, LSU, A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia. But do you recall, the most curious SEC team of all?

Missouri may as well be Rudolph, an outcast who could achieve excellence.

Last season, the defense gave up a modest 20.4 points per game. Mizzou returns six of its top nine tacklers, and the marquee transfers—Damon Wilson II, Josiah Trotter and Jalen Catalon—all match the vacated positions. This defense has a real opportunity to be excellent in 2025.

The main question is whether the QB/RB/WR set of transfers—Beau Pribula, Ahmad Hardy and Kevin Coleman Jr.—will be the right pieces to carry a new-look offense. Mizzou's returning players had little production last year.

But if they fit as hoped, this schedule is kind, too.

Not only does the SEC slate not include Texas, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida or Tennessee, the Tigers don't leave Columbia until Oct. 18. Mizzou has an apparent path for a sneaky rise.

Do I feel strongly about this one? Not really.

The schedule is nothing close to a nightmare, though. Peeking ahead to the list of Big Ten opponents, there are home dates with Michigan, USC and rival Iowa. There's a trip to Penn State. And, well, everything else is manageable.

No, I wouldn't grab a pen to mark in victories at Maryland, Minnesota or UCLA. Road games in the Big Ten rarely are painless.

Yet that's clearly preferrable to Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois, Indiana and so on.

Plus, the defense is loaded with experience in the secondary. That strength should allow Nebraska to retool up front, and the offense figures to be more reliable in Dylan Raiola's second year as a starter.

Enjoy the false hope while it lasts, Huskers fans. But maybe it's real this time!

Boise State rounded at the initial AP poll at 25th, so a simple reality exists: If the Broncos don't make the CFP again, the Group of Five's representative will have opened the year unranked.

The early top contender is Tulane.

After losing quarterback Darian Mensah to Duke, the Green Wave brought in Jake Retzlaff following his departure from BYU. He immediately solidified Tulane as a threat to win the American, which has regularly produced the highest-ranked G5 team during the Playoff era.

The middle part of conference play—home to East Carolina and Army, then at UTSA and Memphis—is likely to shape Tulane's year.

But if the Green Wave navigate that stretch at 3-1, it's hard to see them not playing for a league title—and potentially a chance at a ticket to the CFP.