Men's NCAA Tournament 2025: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

The 2024-25 men's college basketball regular season has come to a close and mid-major conference tournaments are already in full swing, but there is still work to be done sorting out the NCAA tournament bubble.

For some teams, the coming days will make or break their chances of securing an at-large bid to March Madness, assuming they fall short of claiming the automatic bid that comes with winning a conference tournament.

Ahead is a full breakdown of the current bubble situation, with a rundown of how things look in each of the four major conferences and the Mountain West, as well as the few notable mid-major teams vying for an at-large spot.

Included is their full resume and recent performance over the past three games, leading up to our take of up, down or holding for each team's current stock.

A lot can still change in the coming days, but this provides a snapshot of where things stand across men's college basketball just a few days from Selection Sunday.

Safely in Projected Field: Duke, Clemson, Louisville

North Carolina Tar Heels (20-12, 13-7 in ACC, NET: 40)

Quad Records: 1-11 vs. Q1, 7-0 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Miami, Win at Virginia Tech, Loss vs. Duke

The Tar Heels won six in a row before Saturday's 13-point loss to rival Duke, but none of those were top-tier victories, and they are still a pitiful 1-11 in Quad 1 games on the season. A win on Wednesday in their ACC tournament opener would set up a meeting with Wake Forest on Thursday, and the bubble probably bursts for the loser of that one.

Stock: Holding

SMU Mustangs (22-9, 13-7 in ACC, NET: 49)

Quad Records: 0-4 vs. Q1, 6-5 vs. Q2, 11-0 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Stanford, Win vs. Syracuse, Loss at Florida State

Riding a five-game winning streak in mid-February, SMU looked like the ACC's fourth-best team, but it went just 3-4 over its final seven games, including a 76-69 loss to Florida State on Saturday. The Mustangs probably need to win at least two games in the ACC tournament, which would mean an upset of Clemson in the quarterfinals, to have a chance at an at-large bid.

Stock: Down

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (21-10, 13-7 in ACC, NET: 69)

Quad Records: 2-7 vs. Q1, 6-1 vs. Q2, 6-2 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Notre Dame, Loss at Duke, Win vs. Georgia Tech

In the past month, Wake Forest has lost to Florida State (NET: 89), Virginia (NET: 106) and NC State (NET: 132) as part of a 3-4 finish, and its already precarious tournament hopes have taken a major hit. The Demon Deacons' 13-7 record in conference play landed them the No. 4 seed in the ACC tournament, which means a semifinal matchup with Duke if they can survive a likely quarterfinal clash with North Carolina. They'll probably need to win both of those.

Stock: Down

Safely in Projected Field: Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, BYU, Kansas

West Virginia Mountaineers (19-12, 10-10 in Big 12, NET: 46)

Quad Records: 6-10 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at BYU, Win at Utah, Win vs. UCF

The Mountaineers briefly climbed into the AP poll earlier this year when they scored wins over then-No. 7 Kansas and then-No. 2 Iowa State during a 4-2 start to Big 12 play, but they have been treading water on the bubble ever since. They managed to squeak out wins over Utah (71-69) and UCF (72-65) to wrap up the regular season, avoiding what would have been a hugely detrimental loss.

Stock: Holding

Baylor Bears (18-13, 10-10 in Big 12, NET: 31)

Quad Records: 5-11 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Oklahoma State, Win at TCU, Loss vs. Houston

The Bears were in danger of slipping off the bubble entirely when they lost three in a row to Arizona, Colorado and Cincinnati at the end of February. They rallied for wins over Oklahoma State and TCU—two of the worst teams in the Big 12—before a four-point loss to Houston on Saturday. They still have a shot thanks to those two big wins early in conference play and non-conference victories over St. John's and Arkansas, but their stock is down significantly from where it was a month ago.

Stock: Down

Safely in Projected Field: St. John's, Marquette, UConn, Creighton

Xavier Musketeers (21-10, 13-7 in Big East, NET: 44)

Quad Records: 1-8 vs. Q1, 8-2 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Creighton, Win at Butler, Win vs. Providence

There might not be a hotter bubble team than the Musketeers, who closed out the regular season on a seven-game winning streak. That stretch included an 83-61 thumping of a good Creighton team on March 1, and they also have a road victory against Marquette on their resume, though that stands as their only Quad 1 win.

Stock: Up

Villanova Wildcats (18-13, 11-9 in Big East, NET: 53)

Quad Records: 2-7 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 5-2 vs. Q3, 6-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Seton Hall, Win vs. Butler, Loss at Georgetown

The Wildcats are 6-3 in their last nine games with wins over St. John's and Marquette during that stretch, but they also lost to Providence (NET: 98) and Georgetown (NET: 88) for a pair of Quad 2 losses. Their resume also features two Quad 3 losses and a brutal Quad 4 loss to Columbia (NET: 269) during non-conference play, so they didn't have much breathing room even before their loss to Georgetown last Tuesday.

Stock: Down

Safely in Projected Field: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, UCLA, Illinois

Indiana Hoosiers (19-12, 10-10 in Big Ten, NET: 52)

Quad Records: 4-12 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2, 6-0 vs. Q3, 4-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Washington, Loss at Oregon, Win vs. Ohio State

The Hoosiers looked dead in the water during a 2-8 stretch that began shortly after the calendar flipped to January, but they went 5-2 over their final seven games with Quad 1 wins over Michigan State and Purdue to climb back into the tournament picture. A win over Oregon in their Big Ten tournament opener on Thursday might be enough to officially punch their ticket.

Stock: Up

Ohio State Buckeyes (17-14, 9-11 in Big Ten, NET: 36)

Quad Records: 6-11 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at USC, Win vs. Nebraska, Loss at Indiana

The Buckeyes ended up with the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten tournament, making them the best team that doesn't get a bye of any sort. They will play Iowa on Wednesday for a chance to face Wisconsin on Thursday. A victory over the Badgers would likely solidify what is already a strong case for an at-large bid, even with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games.

Stock: Holding

Safely in Projected Field: New Mexico, Utah State

San Diego State Aztecs (21-8, 14-6 in MWC, NET: 51)

Quad Records: 3-5 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 4-1 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Wyoming, Loss at UNLV, Win vs. Nevada

The Aztecs have not lost back-to-back games all season, and with a 6-2 record in their last eight games, they claimed the No. 4 seed in the Mountain West tournament. They will open against No. 5 seed Boise State on Thursday, and the winner of that game likely moves comfortably to the safe side of the bubble, while the loser will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

Stock: Holding

Boise State Broncos (22-9, 14-6 in MWC, NET: 45)

Quad Records: 2-5 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, 10-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Fresno State, Win at Air Force, Loss vs. Colorado State

It's never easy to beat a team three times in the same season, and the Broncos will be leaning heavily on that idea on Thursday when they face a San Diego State team that already handed them losses on Jan. 4 (76-68) and Feb. 15 (64-47). With a 9-2 record in their last 11 games, they are playing well right now, though they did drop the regular-season finale to a red-hot Colorado State team.

Stock: Holding

Colorado State Rams (22-9, 16-4 in MWC, NET: 54)

Quad Records: 1-5 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 4-2 vs. Q3, 11-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Utah State, Win vs. San Jose State, Win at Boise State

The Rams were not part of the bubble conversation just a few weeks ago, but a seven-game winning streak that includes a 27-point blowout win over Utah State and a Quad 1 victory on the road against Boise State has vaulted them into the picture. It also landed them to the No. 2 seed in the MWC tournament, setting up a potential semifinals clash with the same Utah State team they just crushed.

Stock: Up

Safely in Projected Field: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia

Vanderbilt Commodores (20-11, 8-10 in SEC, NET: 43)

Quad Records: 5-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 3-0 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Missouri, Loss vs. Arkansas, Loss at Georgia

After logging three straight wins against ranked opponents with victories over Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri, the Commodores dropped back-to-back contests with fellow bubble teams Arkansas and Georgia to wrap up the regular season. That's enough to keep them on the bubble, but they might still be safely in the field thanks to a long list of quality wins.

Stock: Down

Arkansas Razorbacks (19-12, 8-10 in SEC, NET: 39)

Quad Records: 6-9 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 4-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at South Carolina, Win at Vanderbilt, Win vs. Mississippi State

A five-game losing streak to begin SEC play knocked the Razorbacks out of the AP poll, and they have spent the two months living on the bubble. They helped their case with wins against Vanderbilt and No. 22 Mississippi State to wrap up the regular season, but only after suffering a Quad 2 loss on the road to South Carolina. It's been an up-and-down year, but they are talented enough to make a splash in the SEC tournament.

Stock: Up

Oklahoma Sooners (19-12, 6-12 in SEC, NET: 47)

Quad Records: 6-10 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Ole Miss, Win vs. Missouri, Win at Texas

The Sooners beat Arizona, Louisville and Michigan in non-conference play during a 13-0 start to the season, and that continues to prop up their tournament case. They looked to be trending toward the NIT with a 1-7 stretch of games that started in early February, but wins over Missouri and Texas to close out the season have them right back in the bubble discussion.

Stock: Up

Texas Longhorns (17-14, 6-12 in SEC, NET: 42)

Quad Records: 5-10 vs. Q1, 3-4 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Georgia, Win at Mississippi State, Loss vs. Oklahoma

The Longhorns are 2-7 in their last nine games, but both of their victories during that stretch were Quad 1 wins. Welcome to life in the SEC this season, where a team with 14 losses and a 6-12 conference record is still alive in the at-large conversation. They open the SEC tournament with Vanderbilt on Wednesday, and a loss in that game likely eliminates them from the conversation.

Stock: Down

Safely in Projected Field: Saint Mary's, Memphis, Gonzaga

VCU Rams (25-6, 15-3 in A-10, NET: 33)

Quad Records: 2-1 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2, 4-0 vs. Q3, 13-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Davidson, Win at Duquesne, Loss Loss vs. Dayton

The Rams are the best team in what could be a one-bid A-10. They cruised into their regular-season finale riding a nine-game winning streak, but a 79-76 loss to Dayton halted that momentum and put the Flyers in the at-large discussion. The Rams probably need to reach the A-10 championship game to have an at-large shot, and losing to anyone besides Dayton or George Mason would be a dagger in their hopes.

Stock: Holding

UC-San Diego Tritons (28-4, 18-2 in Big West, NET: 35)

Quad Records: 2-1 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 8-1 vs. Q3, 15-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Cal State Fullerton, Win vs. Long Beach State, Win at UC Davis

A road win over Utah State gives the Tritons more than just a 28-4 record to pin their NCAA tournament hopes on, and they have a real shot at being the first Big West team to snag an at-large bid since the 2004-05 season. They split the season series with a good UC Irvine team (NET: 62), and that will be their biggest hurdle to securing the automatic bid in the Big West tournament.

Stock: Holding

Dayton Flyers (22-9, 12-6 in A-10, NET: 67)

Quad Records: 3-3 vs. Q1, 4-5 vs. Q2, 7-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Richmond, Win vs. Saint Louis, Win at VCU

The Flyers were briefly ranked in the AP poll following a victory over then-No. 6 Marquette on Dec. 14, but a 1-3 start to A-10 play with losses to George Washington (NET: 118) and UMass (NET: 213) sent their stock tumbling. A 79-76 win on the road against VCU on Friday has them back in the bubble conversation.

Stock: Up

Others to Watch: Bradley, George Mason, Liberty, McNeese State, North Texas, San Francisco, UC Irvine