2025 Men's NCAA Tournament: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

The final week of the regular season has arrived, and the NCAA tournament bubble is becoming a perilous place.

While some fortunate teams are starting to get clear of the cutline, there is still uncertainty for a dozen-plus programs. Desperation mode doesn't officially arrive until conference tournaments, but anxiousness is ever-present.

Any loss right now—whether to a great, good or lesser opponent, it hardly matters—can feel catastrophic for those on the bubble.

The following picks are based on the last two weeks of results, but especially the most recent week of action.

All quadrant data from WarrenNolan.com and projected seeds are from BracketMatrix.com.

At some point, the sheer volume of losses must outweigh the level of competition. Oklahoma is reaching that point as March begins.

What a fascinating slide, too.

Oklahoma soared to a 13-0 start with victories over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan. But when the calendar flipped and SEC play tipped off, the Sooners went from defeating everyone to hardly beating anyone.

Fast-forward two months, and OU is just 4-12 in conference action. The team is playing with metaphorical fire at 17-12 overall.

Sure, the Sooners have shown their competitiveness in close losses against a few NCAA tournament locks. They fell to Kentucky and Ole Miss by a combined four points in this recent week alone, for example.

But those setbacks—because of the volume, not the opponents—have pushed OU to the very edge of the bubble.

Earlier losses to Washington State and Boston College have placed a couple of Quadrant 3 blemishes on Boise State's resume. That reality exists, and it might influence the narrative around the Broncos.

However, their outlook is looking much brighter after a hugely valuable four-game winning streak over the last two weeks.

Boise State, as a result, has risen firmly into the bubble discussion.

Upending the trio of New Mexico, Nevada and Utah State has guaranteed Boise at least three more Quadrant 2 wins. And with Colorado State on the docket this week, the Broncos have a chance for another before the Mountain West tourney.

Thanks to this surge, the program has a serious shot to make the Big Dance for the fourth consecutive season.

Wake Forest, like its ACC counterpart North Carolina, is approaching a massive opportunity for a significant win against Duke.

Also similar to UNC, the Deacs desperately need it.

On a resume that's reasonably thin on big victories—not devoid, to be clear—Wake Forest can hardly afford the dreaded bad losses. It had done exactly that until mid-February, but those Quad 3 eyesores are slowly stacking up.

North Carolina State, one of the worst ACC teams, and Virginia have both upended Wake in the last two weeks.

Barring a road upset of Duke, the Deacs' postseason hopes likely will hinge on winning the ACC tourney.

High-major programs attract most of the conversation on the bubble, so a school like George Mason can linger under the radar.

That was certainly the case recently. If you're not a complete diehard, you probably didn't know GMU rattled off 11 straight wins until Atlantic 10 front-runner VCU snapped the impressive streak.

But now, Duquesne has popped the Patriots' bubble.

George Mason fell in blowout fashion, losing 85-68 and seeing any hope of a charge up the bubble disappear. Even as that possibility looked unlikely, the Patriots will enter the A-10 tourney with an auto-bid-or-bust outlook.

Vanderbilt had a perfect week.

Following a Top 25 victory over Ole Miss last Saturday, the Commodores just knocked off Texas A&M and Missouri. That makes it three straight ranked wins for Vandy, which has jumped to the brink of being a March Madness lock.

Paraphrasing the words of my colleague Kerry Miller, the team's resume falls in the "Don't Mess Up" territory.

In other words: Vandy should be in.

As long as the 'Dores defeat one of Arkansas or Georgia this week, it's difficult to imagine they won't be dancing.

Ideal way to help your resume? Beat a bubble team.

Easy way to get annoyed? Lose to bubble teams—plural, in particular.

Our focus is merely the most recent results, yet Texas has been fighting this negative trend for the better part of a month. The early stages of February brought losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt, and last week's setbacks to Arkansas and Georgia followed a loss at South Carolina.

In short: Texas is 1-6 since beating LSU to open February, dropping the Longhorns entirely out of the Bracket Matrix consensus field.

Texas closes the regular season at tourney-bound Mississippi State and home to bubble-dwelling Oklahoma, and the SEC tournament will be filled with opportunities for quality wins. By no means should the Horns be discounted.

But they cannot keep dropping these valuable games.