Ethiopia enters 2025 with a 30 billion US dollars ambition: a suite of mega-projects designed to transform its economy and regional standing. At the heart of the plan are a 10 billion US dollars international airport in Bishoftu, a 2.5 billion US dollars fertilizer complex in Gode, and a range of energy ventures, including preliminary nuclear plans. Around them swirl government-led corridor projects, which have already absorbed billions of birr, reshaping urban centres and improving roads and city aesthetics.
Scale alone, however, is no substitute for planning. Public resources—taxpayer money, state-backed loans, foreign borrowing—must be deployed wisely. Even projects that will not turn a profit must operate efficiently and sustainably. Otherwise, they risk creating long-term fiscal pressure, no matter how attractive the urban facelift.
Nuclear power illustrates the stakes. Such infrastructure is capital-intensive, technically demanding, and carries decades of operational responsibility. Other emerging economies have learned the hard way: cost overruns and delays are common. Ethiopia faces added complications—limited domestic expertise, scarce foreign exchange, and regional instability.
A nuclear plant is as much a test of governance and regulation as it is of engineering. International partners can advise, but they cannot replace domestic institutions capable of running multi-decade operations. Without phased investment and independent feasibility studies, nuclear power may become a liability rather than a growth engine.
The Bishoftu airport tells a similar story. Ethiopia’s location is strategically advantageous, but its success hinges on accurate traffic forecasts, seamless integration with existing networks, and operational competence. Large-scale aviation projects are prone to delays and overruns, and Ethiopia’s foreign-exchange volatility and security challenges only heighten the risk. Poor planning could saddle the government with costs while benefits lag, though Ethiopian Airlines has shown it can deliver both revenue and infrastructure growth on schedule.
The fertilizer complex in Gode is lower risk, yet not guaranteed. Agriculture employs roughly seventy percent of the workforce, and local fertilizer production could reduce imports and strengthen food security. But even projects with predictable returns depend on stable supply chains, reliable energy, efficient distribution, and protection against global commodity swings. Technical feasibility alone is insufficient; operational and market realities matter.
Corridor development projects illustrate the difficulty of public infrastructure. Roads, industrial zones, and urban improvements often prioritise connectivity and appearance over revenue. Even if profit is not the goal, maintenance and operational efficiency cannot be neglected. Otherwise, projects become fiscal burdens rather than strategic assets.
Financing is tricky. Ethiopia relies on domestic revenue, international loans, and private-sector involvement. Large state-backed projects create contingent liabilities. Public-private partnerships, project bonds, and risk-sharing arrangements may help, but only with transparent governance and independent oversight.
Security and human capital compound the challenge. Conflict in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray has displaced hundreds of thousands, disrupted supply chains, and added up to twenty percent to project costs. Skilled labour is scarce; only about 30 percent of youth have vocational training. Displacement and insecurity could cut productivity across mega-projects by ten to fifteen percent.
Institutional capacity is crucial. Large projects need transparent procurement, rigorous contract management, and independent monitoring. Nuclear facilities demand robust regulation, environmental safeguards, and emergency preparedness. Airports, industrial zones, and corridors require standardised procedures, risk management, and integration with national plans. Without these safeguards, even technically sound projects can fail.
The lessons are clear. Feasibility must drive ambition. Projects should be phased, independently evaluated, and chosen based on evidence. Public-utility projects must operate sustainably, even if they do not generate revenue. Institutions, human capital, and governance structures must evolve alongside physical infrastructure. Financial instruments must manage risk transparently while attracting technical expertise.
Ethiopia’s 30 billion US dollars agenda shows vision. But vision alone will not secure sustainable development. Only disciplined execution, grounded in realistic feasibility and risk management, can turn ambition into results. Otherwise, the country risks fiscal overextension and unfulfilled promise.
Mikiyas Mulugeta G. Yohannes (PhD) is a Consultant and Director of Training and Development, Centre for African Leadership Studies (CALS) and XHub-Addis. He can be reached at mikiusc2017@gmail.com.
