Here is a very plausible pair of claims:
The Son could have become incarnate as a different human
being.
God foreknew many centuries ahead of time which human being the
Son would become incarnate as.
Regarding 1, of course, the Son could not have been a different
person—the person the Son is and was and ever shall be is the
second person of the Trinity. But Son could have been a different human
being.
Here is a sketch of an argument for 1:
If the identity of a human being depends on the body, then if the
Son became incarnate as a 3rd century BC woman in India, this would be a
different human being from Jesus (albeit the same person).
If the identity of a human being depends on the soul, then God
could have created a different soul for the Son’s incarnation.
The identity of a human being depends on either the body or the
soul.
I don’t have as good an argument for 2 as I do for 1, but I think 2
is quite plausible given what Scripture says about God’s having planned
out the mission of Jesus from of old.
Now add:
- If the Son could have become incarnate as a different human being,
which human being he became incarnate as depends on a number of free
human choices in the century preceding the incarnation.
Now, 1, 2 and 3 leads to an immediate problem for an open theist
Christian (my thinking on this is inspired by a paper of David
Alexander, though his argument is different) who thinks God doesn’t
foreknow human free choices.
Why is 3 true? Well, if the identity of a human being even partly
depends on the body (as is plausible), given that (plausibly) Mary was
truly a biological mother of Jesus, then if Mary’s parents had not had
any children, the body that Jesus actually had would not have existed,
and an incarnation would have happened with a different body and hence a
different human being.
Objection: God could have created Mary—or the body
for the incarnation—directly ex nihilo in such a case, or God
could have overridden human free will if some human were about to make a
decision that would lead to Mary not existing.
Response: If essentiality of origins is true, then
it is logically impossible for the same body to be created ex
nihilo as actually had a partial non-divine cause. But I don’t want
the argument to depend on essentiality of origins. Instead, I want to
argue as follows. Both of the solutions in the objection require God to
foreknow that he would in fact engage in such intervention if human free
choices didn’t cooperate with his plan. God’s own interventions would be
free choices, and so on open theism God wouldn’t know that he would thus
intervene. One might respond that God could resolve to ensure
that a certain body would become available, and a morally perfect being
always keeps his resolutions. But while perhaps a morally perfect being
always keeps his promises, I think it is false that a morally
perfect being always keeps his resolutions. Unless one is
resolving to do something that one is already obligated to do, it is not
wrong to change one’s mind in a revolution. I suppose God could have
promised someone that he would ensure the existence of a certain
specific body, but we have no evidence of such a specific promise in
Scripture, and it seems an odd maneouver for God to have to make in
order to know ahead of time who the human that would save the world
is.
What if the identity of a human depends solely on the soul? But then
the identity of the human being that the Son would become incarnate as
would depend on God’s free decision which soul to create for that human
being, and the same remarks as I made about resolutions in the previous
paragraph would apply.